Council of the European Union General Secretariat

THINK TANK REVIEW APRIL 2021 Council Library ISSUE 88

This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in March relating to different political and policy topics. (twitter link)

The reports comment on the substantial impact Covid-19 has had on the EU27 and the global economy, triggering unprecedented policy responses across Europe. They look at the pandemic's effects across various economic sectors, at EU industry, at strategic value chains, and at the recovery measures to restore calm on the financial markets and help businesses with capital flows. They discuss for instance:  the main risks to the success of the recovery programmes, such as a lack of focus and mistargeting, maintaining unsustainable sectors, delays in implementation, and the lack of both a European dimension and the capacity to implement such a complex programme over and above the normal EU budget;  the monetary policy and how ECB measures have had real effects on euro area unemployment rates, and the financial effects on banking stability;  the fact that during the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe has benefitted strongly from being an open economy that can access goods and services from other parts of the world; self- sufficiency or less economic openness would make Europe less capable of responding to a future emergency;  what further measures should be considered in order to reinforce the resilience of the EU's internal market in the face of future crises;  the Covid vaccines as instruments of soft power and a tool for competition between powers, as they symbolise scientific and technological supremacy; and  how the pandemic represents a civil emergency and public health crisis for a large portion of the Euro-Atlantic community, and will have profound and long-lasting political and economic effects on the international order and stability.

EU POLICY AREAS

The papers present different scenarios for the outcome of the Conference on the Future of Europe, which is expected to give new impulses for structural reform in the EU; they also examine the constitutional and institutional challenges faced by the EU faced during the Brexit negotiations, analysing the way the current wording of article 50 of the EU Treaty was applied.

The articles reflect on the ambition of strengthening the EU's role in the world by strengthening the euro's international position and thereby reducing its dependence on the US dollar; note that the debt management question must be treated separately from the issue of the recovery plan; and investigate the potential of a European net wealth tax as a way of raising substantial revenues to address the Covid-19 and climate change crises, so that Europe can become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. The reports assess the coherence of the EU's climate policy and action, as well as the climate policies of the major economies.

* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Council Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council. On foreign affairs, the reports advocate that the EU should embrace all available tools that go beyond the Common Foreign and Security Policy in the narrow sense of the term. EU foreign policy, be it on climate, peace-building and development aid, energy, democracy, trade or migration, should be seen as part and parcel of “Global Europe”. A policy of “normative realism” could serve as a constructive approach, enabling the EU to, for example, pursue its interests through free trade agreements. 2021 provides the final geopolitical opportunity for Europeans to clarify what kind of relationship they want with key global players, including China and Russia, and with our neighbourhood. The articles argue that the EU should protect itself from the effects of extraterritorial sanctions by creating a joined-up arsenal of measures to counter these sanctions; such an attempt may be the first real operational test of the concept of “strategic autonomy”.

The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.

The Council Library is open to staff of the EU institutions and Permanent Representations of the member states. The general public may use the Library for research purposes. It is located in the Justus Lipsius building, at JL 02 GH, Rue de la Loi 175, 1048 Brussels. Contact: [email protected]

TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS 5 COVID -19 5

SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 12 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 14 Agriculture and Fisheries 14 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space) 14 Economic and Financial Affairs 15 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 17 Environmental Issues 18 General Affairs 19 Justice and Home Affairs 20 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 21

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 23 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 23 Development 28 Trade 28 Africa 28 Asia-Oceania 29 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 30 Western Balkans 31 China 32 Russia 33 United Kingdom / Brexit 34 United States of America 35

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 36 Bulgaria 36 Denmark 36 Germany 36 Greece 37 Spain 37 France 37 Italy 38 Lithuania 38 Netherlands 38 Austria 39

MISCELLANEOUS 40

4/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

better management and control systems at EU level. (16 p.)

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Monetary policy during the pandemic: fit for purpose?

by Christophe Blot et al.

This contribution reviews the ECB measures since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, i.e. the extension of the asset purchase programme (APP) and the SPECIAL FOCUS introduction of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). It shows that COVID -19 APP announcements have helped steer inflation expectations upward, and that CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY PEPP has alleviated fragmentation risk. It STUDIES also shows that since the mid2000s, ECB measures have had real effects on euro Analysis of developments in EU capital area unemployment rates, nominal effects flows in the global context: increasing on inflation rates and financial effects on uncertainty in the wake of the Covid-19 banking stability. (30 p.) pandemic by Cinzia Alcidi et al. AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH This study analyses the main trends and developments in global and EU capital Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik in der Covid- movements up to 2019 and the challenges 19-Krise: zwischen Rettungspaketen und brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. Maßnahmen zur Konjunkturbelebung While coordination and policy measures in advanced economies have helped to by Atanas Pekanov @atanaspekanov restore calm on financial markets and restart capital flows quickly, the impact of In response to the economic slump in 2020, the pandemic has been sudden and large EU governments initiated aid packages to on flows, especially for emerging market support affected households and economic economies, and the shock continues. (97 p.) sectors. The active role of fiscal policy and monetary policy prevented an even deeper economic slump. At present, government CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY spending primarily has an insurance STUDIES function to cushion the shock, but it is not providing a stimulus. Such a stimulating Avoiding the main risks in the recovery effect can only occur once the pandemic plans of member states has subsided. In the near future, an by Jorge Núñez Ferrer @jnunez_ferrer expansionary fiscal policy will be necessary for a sustainable upswing of the economy. This report sets out some of the main risks (DE - 11 p.) to the success of the recovery programmes, such as a lack of focus and mistargeting, maintaining unsustainable sectors, delays in implementation, and the lack of both a European dimension and the capacity to implement such a complex programme over and above the normal EU budget. It highlights inter alia the necessity for serious structural reforms in member states (MS),

5/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR dangerous direction of policy. It would make EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY Europe less capable of responding to the FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS) next emergency. (8 p.)

Die Aufbau- und Resilienzfazilität der EU: ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein? EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT by Stefan Schaller et al. Towards a global green recovery: the cases This brief deals with the EU recovery and of Denmark, the EU, Germany, the resilience facility which is intended to Netherlands and the UK support the MS most affected by the by Nadia Ashraf et al. pandemic in reshaping their economies in line with green and digital change. For the The paper provides insights into emerging first time, they are also granted non- approaches of DK, the EU, DE, NL and repayable grants, the proper use of which is UK to support a global green recovery justified in national development plans and through their foreign policies. It highlights which must be linked to the country-specific that multilateral organisations are recommendations of the European considered key in supporting global green Semester. (DE - 11 p.) recovery efforts, that partnerships with different actors and at different levels are EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK considered vital to promote a global green recovery, and how to support particular When and how to unwind Covid-support vulnerable groups through green recovery measures to the banking system? measures. (31 p.) by Rainer Haselmann et al. EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK This analysis proposes ways to retract from supervisory Covid-19 support measures The impact of Covid-19 on the Internal without perils for financial stability. It Market simulates the likely impact of the corona by J. Scott Marcus et al. crisis on euro area banks’ capital and predicts a significant capital shortfall. The This study assesses the impact of the authors recommend to end accounting Covid-19 crisis on the Internal Market and practices that conceal loan losses and consumer protection, including the impact of sustain capital relief measures. (26 p.) measures introduced at national and EU level to mitigate the consequences of the EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR pandemic. It asks what further measures INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY should be considered in order to reinforce the resilience of the EU's Internal Market in Covid-19 and the danger of self-sufficiency: the face of future crises. (123 p.) how Europe’s pandemic resilience was helped by an open economy EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Johan Norberg @johanknorberg Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on EU During the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe has industries benefitted strongly from being an open by Jan Maarten De Vet economy that can access goods and services from other parts of the world. With evidence on the effects on EU industry Paradoxically, some politicians in Europe manifested until the beginning of 2021, this think that dependence on foreign supplies report addresses the following issues: the reduced the resilience of our economy – impact of Covid-19 on the EU economy as a and argue that Europe now should wean whole and across sectors; the impact on itself off its dependence on other strategic value chains; and necessary economies. This brief argues that self- recovery measures to meet the needs of the sufficiency or less economic openness is a EU industry. (86 p.)

6/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

GLOBAL TRADE AND INNOVATION relatively small increases in global income POLICY ALLIANCE / INSTITUT DER inequality in 2020. (25 p.) DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE) EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE

Global value chains after the Covid-19 crisis Work, health and Covid-19: a literature review by Hubertus Bardt @H_Bardt et al. by Damini Purkayastha et al. While the establishment of international value chains has created wealth on a global This report examines why it is critical that scale, globalization has recently come occupational health and safety measures under pressure. Trade distortions caused by take centre stage in mitigation policies. Chinese intervention into markets and Workers in sectors declared essential by protectionist measures in several countries state authorities have been mandated to have worsened the political environment for continue working in physical settings during free trade. (10 p.) the pandemic. Several such sectors involve many face-to-face contacts with colleagues AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE and clients, meaning that workers face a higher risk of exposure to Covid-19. (64 p.) The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global industrial production TERRA NOVA by Steven B. Kamin et al. Les implications économiques potentielles This paper attempts to gauge the effect of d’une pandémie durable the Covid-19 pandemic on the global by Jean Pisani-Ferry @pisaniferry et al. trajectory of a key measure of economic activity – industrial production – over the If the Covid-19 persists and continues to course of 2020. The economic effects of the threaten lives, two scenarios then seem pandemic differed substantially between possible. The first is that waves of recurring rich and poor countries: Covid-19 deaths, infection lead governments to oscillate lockdown restrictions, and trade were all between imposing and lifting health important drivers of production in wealthier measures depending on the ups and downs countries. In poorer countries, deaths of the epidemic. The second is a “zero exerted little impact on production, whereas Covid” scenario, i.e. severe and sustained lockdown restrictions and variations in containment policies at the start, gentler global trade played substantial roles. (45 p.) sanitary measures associated with systematic tracing and testing, to maintain a BRUEGEL very low level of infection. The authors focus on the implications of the first The unequal inequality impact of the Covid- scenario. (FR - 10 p.) 19 pandemic by Zsolt Darvas @ZsoltDarvas FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA The already available employment data for 2020 shows that the difference between Bayesian estimation of epidemiological highly-educated and low-educated people in models: methods, causality and policy terms of job losses is correlated with the trade-offs economic shock from the Covid-19 by Jonas E. Arias et al. pandemic, suggesting that the depth of the economic recession is related to the The study presents a general framework for increase in within-country income inequality Bayesian estimation and causality in 2020. Scenarios based on historical assessment in epidemiological models, patterns of recessions and within-country using Belgian data for the Covid-19 income inequality increases suggest epidemic during 2020. It captures the data on the three waves of infections and uses

7/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19 an estimated number of new cases. The INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR results provide evidence for the argument STRATEGIC STUDIES / HANNS SEIDEL that additional government-mandated FOUNDATION mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at zero cost or a very small cost in The geo-economics and geopolitics of terms of output. (58 p.) Covid-19: implications for European security

OPEN SOCIETY INSTITUTE - SOFIA / by Bastian Giegerich et al. EUROPEAN POLICY INITIATIVE The coronavirus pandemic clearly presents Double trouble: resilience to fake news at a civil emergency and public-health crisis for the time of Covid-19 infodemic most of the Euro-Atlantic community, and for the wider world. It will be responsible for by Marin Lessenski @marinlessenski deep and long-lasting political and economic effects that will almost certainly The report recommends education as the influence international order and stability, optimal approach to tackling fake news as a and the ability of governments to confront “vaccination” offering resistance against the security challenges today and in the future. worst cases of fake news and post-truth. (24 p.) Dealing with fake news and disinformation would dial down the temperature of political and social debates – and confrontations – INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS would improve trust in societies and would ESTRATÉGICOS contribute to a more healthy environment (figuratively and literally) in the Covid-19 La transformación digital: un aliado pandemic. (14 p.) estratégico en la era Covid by Joaquín Fournier Guimbao ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES - EUROPEAN The article explains how the Covid-19 UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE pandemic is encouraging organizations to innovate to overcome the current crisis. Citizenship, migration and mobility in a Companies and organizations, both in the pandemic (CMMP): a global dataset of private and in the public sector, are carrying Covid-19 restrictions on human movement out a digital transformation to reduce costs, streamline structures and improve profits. by Lorenzo Piccoli @piccolimeister et al. According to the author, the EU could act as a driver and unifier of the digital This research introduces a new global transformation in MS. (ES - 16 p.) dataset, the CMMP. The dataset features systematic information on border closures and domestic lockdowns in response to the ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Covid-19 outbreak. It documents the Covid-19 and the global vaccine race evolution of the types and scope of international travel bans and exceptions to by Lorenza Errighi them, as well as internal measures including limitations of non-essential movement and The paper looks to Covid vaccines as curfews in 27 countries. (10 p.) instruments of soft power, as they symbolise, on the one hand, scientific and technological supremacy and, on the other, means to support existing and emerging foreign policy partnerships and alliances with relevant geopolitical implications. (7 p.)

8/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR invested for decades in creating equal DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL opportunities for women and men are now ASSISTANCE decreasing and can be completely undermined in the course of the crisis. (EN - Emergency law responses to Covid-19 and 106 p./ MK - 112 p./ SQ - 106 p. ) the impact on peace and transition processes BUSSOLA INSTITUTE by Sean Molloy @DrSeanmolloy Covid -19, oil price contraction and energy This report explores the way governments transition: implications for the GCC states undergoing transitions to peace and and Europe democracy have triggered emergency legal by Angus Taverner frameworks to disable some ordinary (democratic) procedures and set aside This paper explores how the contraction of standard political and legal accountability traditional energy revenues, combined with mechanisms as part of their Covid-19 the effects of combating the challenges response. (40 p.) posed by Covid-19, are likely to influence plans for economic diversification in the Gulf EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT states. It considers the direct economic POLICY MANAGEMENT impacts of this moment of change, but also broader potential consequences for the How European financial institutions can region and what influence this could have work better together for sustainable and on current and future relations between green (co-) investment in times of Covid-19 Europe and the Gulf. (26 p.) by San Bilal @SanBilal1 COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (CFR) International, European and regional Covid-19 and its effect on inequality and financial institutions for development need democracy: a study of five large to step up their efforts, to ‘build back better’, democracies in a greener, more inclusive and gender- sensitive manner. To do so, the paper by Joshua Kurlantzick @JoshKurlantzick claims that the EU needs to further enhance its financial architecture for development, Beyond devastating public health, Covid-19 notably by stimulating coordination, joint has worsened socioeconomic inequality, and complementary investments and possibly for years to come, and exacerbated approaches among European financial democratic regression in the US, Brazil, institutions as well as with other India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. (42 p.) development stakeholders. (16 p.) AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE CENTRE FOR RESEARCH AND POLICY MAKING Policies to help the working class in the aftermath of Covid-19: lessons from the Gender and diversity analysis of the Covid- great recession 19 impact Анализа на влијанијата од ковид-19 на by Richard Burkhauser et al. родот и различностите Analizat e ndikimit të kovid–sars–19 nga The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated perspektiva gjinore dhe e diversitetit government mandated shutdowns caused a historic shock to the US economy and a by Marija Risteska @risteskamarija disproportionate job loss concentrated among the working class. While an The overall women’s empowerment strive unprecedented social safety net policy for equal participation in economic, societal response successfully offset earnings loses and political processes, for equal roles of among lower-wage workers, the risk of women and men in the family, in the continued and persistent unemployment household and in society. The efforts

9/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19 remains higher among the working class. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT (18 p.) POLICY MANAGEMENT

Covid-19 vaccines: the challenges of NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION protecting Africa's fragile regions Working and learning during the pandemic by Sophie Desmidt @SophieDesmidt et al. by Koustubh “K.J.” Bagchi @kjbagchi et al. The paper looks at the challenges ahead for This report focuses on important aspects of large-scale vaccination, as part of our series the privacy debate covering civil rights of looking at the longer term effects of aspects of privacy, enforcement Covid-19 on conflict and fragility in Africa. mechanisms, digital security, the use of The authors investigate the potential algorithms, and more. It discusses key repercussions for highly fragile situations in questions regarding the state of student and Africa and what it might mean for the EU' worker privacy during the pandemic, role in the global response to the pandemic. surveillance tools being deployed and the (16 p.) guardrails that could be implemented to protect student and employee rights, along THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC with their health. (29 p.) STUDIES

The impact of Covid-19 in water-stressed ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE Iraq WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) by Dorith Kool @KoolDorith et al.

Decoding China’s Covid-19 ‘Virus The consequences of the Covid-19 exceptionalism’: community-based digital pandemic in Iraq, in parallel with the contact tracing in Wuhan country’s water issues, are exacerbating by Philipp Boeing et al. existing health, economic, socio-political, and security challenges. This brief outlines This article explores how key stakeholders the ways in which Covid-19 interacts with in an open innovation ecosystem interact pressing challenges; it looks at the broader within the digital context to overcome set of considerations on the need for an challenges to public health and socio- integrated approach for addressing water, economic welfare imposed by the security and health challenges in the pandemic. As an example, the community- country. (21 p.) based digital contact tracing in Wuhan, a representative case of China’s ‘virus ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE exceptionalism’ in Covid-19 mitigation, is WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR studied. (17 p.) EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Corona and the stability of personal traits ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) and preferences: evidence from Germany Implications of Covid-19 on East Africa–EU by Manuel Frondel et al. partnership on migration and forced displacement This report analyses whether the experience of financial losses due to the by Tsion Tadesse Abebe @TsionTA et al. corona pandemic has affected three kinds The implications of Covid-19 for the of personal traits and preferences: the partnership between countries in East Africa willingness to take risks, patience, and the and the EU with respect to migration and locus of control. The heterogeneity analysis forced displacement is the major focus of indicates that financial losses due to corona this paper. (23 p.) particularly affect the most vulnerable households, notably low-income households and those with little income diversification. (16 p.)

10/40

SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG (SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER BERLIN)

Die Situation von Industriebeschäftigten während der Corona-Pandemie: Ergebnisse der Beschäftigtenbefragung 2020 der IG Metall by Jutta Allmendinger @JA_Allmendingeret al.

The results of the German trade union IG Metall 2020 employee survey present the employees' situation before the pandemic, their experiences during it, the time after the first lockdown and their expectations with regard to future developments. (DE – 55 p.)

WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG (SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER BERLIN)

Alles Covidioten? Politische Potenziale des Corona-Protests in Deutschland by Edgar Grande et al.

This study gives a first comprehensive overview of the political potential of corona- related protests in Germany. It concludes that corona protests have a considerable and relatively stable mobilization potential among the German population. Based on survey data, the study shows that this mobilization potential is not only, but increasingly, formed by the radical right fringe. The susceptibility to conspiracy theories makes further radicalization possible. (DE - 35 p.)

AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Kurzarbeit als Kriseninstrument in der Covid-19-Pandemie: Kurzexpertise zum Vergleich der Modelle ausgewählter europäischer Länder by Ulrike Huemer et al.

Since 2020, a number of countries have used short-time work schemes to limit the social cost of the Covid-19 crisis by reducing the strain on the labour market. This article gives an overview of the advantages and drawbacks of this instrument and compares the Austrian short-time work scheme with models used in other European countries. (DE - 21 p.)

11/40

SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

news in national newspapers, relative to all published news. (22 p.)

MAX-PLANCK-INSTITUT FÜR GESELLSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF SOCIETIES)

Dürfen europäische Gesetze Grundfreiheiten einschränken?

by Martin Höpner et al. SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS This paper aims to answer the question if AND INSTITUTIONS EU legislations is bound by the fundamental freedoms. Two conflict sequences are STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK analysed: the disputes over the directive on (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR the prohibition of tobacco advertising and INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) the posting of workers directive, including its most recent revision. The authors conclude Die Konferenz zur Zukunft Europas: that the question is bound by the Herausforderungen und fundamental freedoms, but only loosely and Erfolgsbedingungen für einen in unclear contours. (DE - 39 p.) Reformimpuls, der über Krisenmanagement hinausreicht SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR by Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza et al. EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY The Conference on the Future of Europe is STUDIES) supposed to give new impulses for structural reform in the EU by combining Women at the top of the European inter-institutional negotiations and public Commission – drivers and barriers participation. This paper presents different scenarios for the outcome of the conference by Miriam Hartlapp et al. identifying four potential hindrances to its success: sceptical MS, the tabooisation of The authors provide an overview of treaty changes, inter-institutional rivalries women’s representation at the top positions and problems with civic participation. (DE - in the Commission and suggest actions for 8 p.) a better gender balance in the future. (15 p.) ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR BRUEGEL EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS) Interest in European matters: a glass three quarters full? Die Zukunft des EU- SpitzenkandidatInnenVerfahrens by Francesco Papadia et al. by Johanna Edthofer et al. A disconnect between EU integration and the level of interest of EU citizens in The EU SpitzenkandidatInnen procedure European matters is a potential weakness in was first used in the 2014 elections to the the EU’s democratic foundations, note the EP. The connection between the European authors. They use three indicators to elections and the Commission Presidency measure EU citizens’ interest in Europe: should be maintained in the form of the turnout in EP elections relative to national SpitzenkandidatInnen procedure, as this elections, Eurobarometer surveys of interest would ultimately strengthen the democratic in Europe, and the presence of European legitimacy of the EU, notes this publication. (DE - 11 p.)

12/40

SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Interpretation and implementation of article 50 TEU Specifics and trends in the appointment of European External Action Service by Ioannis Papageorgiou administrative staff (2011-2019) This study looks into the constitutional and by Bartłomiej Znojek (ed.) @BartekZnojek institutional challenges that the EU faced during the Brexit negotiations, analysing The report is a comprehensive analysis of whether the current wording of article 50 of the EEAS’s appointment policy and the the EU Treaty was applied in an adequate evolution of its administrative staff structure manner and allowed for an efficient and since the inauguration of the Service in properly organised withdrawal procedure. January 2011. It addresses how the EEAS (105 p.) implemented its recruitment criteria highlighting various manifestations of INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE disproportion in the representation of EUROPE) nationals of specific MS and in the share of women. (65 p.) Que reste-t-il du «Groupe de Visegrád» ?

by Lukáš Macek HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Thirty years ago, a declaration signed by the presidents of Hungary, Poland and Towards a European model for community Czechoslovakia committed these countries sponsorship to the path of cooperation and good by Carlotta Duken et al. neighbourliness, particularly in the face of the challenges of post-communist transition This brief analyses existing community and accession to the EU and NATO. What sponsorship schemes in the MS and argues conclusions can be drawn from this that a “European model” should be based “Visegrád process”? The report takes stock on two principles: the additionality of internally of the V4 group and also of the sponsorship schemes and their focus on the European scene. (FR - 10 p.) protection of beneficiaries. (8 p.) OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE The concept of chilling effect Europe after the Brits by Laurent Pech @ProfPech by Andrew Duff Chilling effect is a well-established concept The loss of the UK should prompt serious in the case law of the European Court of reflection about the constitutional direction Human Rights. Chilling effect is usually of the EU, claims the author. He quotes four known as dissuading or deterrent effect in reforms and proposes creating an expert EU law and has been used in competition or reflection group to stimulate the full free movement law. This report examines implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as whether it is possible to use the chilling well as prepare the way for the next effect to promote and protect democracy, Convention which must be called to amend rule of law, and fundamental rights. In its the EU treaties. (4 p.) negative form, the chilling effect is used by some governments to create a climate of self-censorship. (33 p.)

13/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE

Devrions-nous manger bio ?

by Léon Guéguen

The objective of this study is not to dissuade the citizen-consumer from buying organic but to sort out different arguments and to provide him with additional reliable, rational, scientifically validated information, in order to help him choose with full knowledge of

the facts. (FR - 64 p.)

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES MARKET, INDUSTRY, RESEARCH AND SPACE) INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS CAP trilogue briefing: what green ambitions of the CAP reform can still be salvaged? Strategic autonomy: a spectrum of choices for the EU and Ireland by Stephen Meredith et al. by Alexander Conway The March ‘super trilogue’ was a decisive moment for the future of the EU’s farming This paper explores the current political and policy. This brief puts forward economic debates on strategic autonomy in recommendations for ensuring that the next the MS across a range of policy dimensions Common Agricultural Policy is fit to support and seek to elicit the implications of this an ambitious implementation of the concept for small MS and small open European Green Deal. It considers some of economies like Ireland. (11 p.) the issues of greatest concern for lifting the environmental and climate performance of PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE the policy. (32 p.) Encouraging AI adoption by EU SMEs FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION by Caleb Watney @calebwatney POLITIQUE For the firms that adopt them, artificial L'agriculture bio et l'environnement intelligence (AI) systems can offer by Bernard Le Buanec revolutionary new products, increase productivity raise wages, and expand This study analyses the differentiated consumer convenience. But there are open impact of organic and conventional questions about how well the ecosystem of agriculture on various compartments of the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) environment, namely: water, air, soil fertility, across Europe is prepared to adopt these wild biodiversity and the use of land space. new technologies. (18 p.) The main indicators used are: the content of various “polluting” elements in water and air, the impact on greenhouse gas production, the soil's organic matter and mineral fertilizer content, the abundance of different species forming biodiversity, and the areas necessary for sufficient agricultural production. (FR - 52 p.)

14/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY STUDIES

Digital futures for Europe On selling sovereigns held by the ECB to the ESM: institutional and economic policy by Meelis Kitsing implications

This paper argues that is far more important by Emilios Avgouleas et al. for Europe to create a better environment for companies to experiment and discover A repetition of austerity policies of the early with new business models, and to learn 2010s is not consistent with maintaining from the past platform success while they adequate growth and sovereign debt do so. That requires a much greater space sustainability in the post-pandemic for entrepreneurship and that the EU and environment, argue the authors. The national governments stay away from European stability mechanism (ESM) can excessive regulations that strain new offer the appropriate instrument by business growth, suggests the author. (9 p.) purchasing the ECB-held sovereign debt and issuing own liabilities to fund the PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR purchases. As the purchases would be INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS funded by the ESM’s own liabilities, ESM debt would become the long- sought-after Will industrial and agricultural subsidies European safe asset. (22 p.) ever be reformed? DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR by Gary Clyde Hufbauer WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN The report analyses the extent of national INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH) subsidies for industry and summarizes The impact of ECB corporate sector efforts to contain unjustifiable subsidies, purchases on European green bonds while proposing some improvements. It sketches EU and US constitutional systems by Franziska Bremus et al. for exercising internal restraint and examines the success and failure of This report analyses the effect of the ECB’s international restraint through the corporate sector purchase programme and countervailing duties system and WTO the recent pandemic emergency purchase agreements. (33 p.) programme on the yields of eligible green bonds, a new but rapidly growing segment of the corporate bond market. (40 p.) ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH (GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE) INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES) Der Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt Kan euron tävla med dollarn som by Berthold Busch et al. internationell valuta?

The MS of the eurozone are countering the by Harry Flam economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic with heavy spending. In response to this The ambition to strengthen the EU's role in exceptional situation the rules of the stability the world includes strengthening the euro's and growth pact have been temporarily international position and thereby reducing suspended. (DE - 82 p.) its dependence on the US dollar. However, a more viable way for the EU is to strive for greater consensus with the US, claims the author. (SV - 6 p.)

15/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

CASE - CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH / EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS) PARLIAMENT THINK TANK A European wealth tax for a fair and green Thinking beyond the pandemic: monetary recovery policy challenges in the medium- to long- term by Jakob Kapeller et al. by Marek Dąbrowski This study investigates the potential of a European net wealth tax to raise substantial The economic characteristics of the Covid- revenues to face the current twin crises: 19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. Covid-19 and climate change. Overall, the It is a combination of demand- and supply- results show that the introduction of a net side constraints which led to the formation wealth tax could raise sufficiently high of a monetary overhang that will be revenues to respond to the current crises unfrozen once the pandemic ends. while simultaneously reduce the historically Monetary policy must take this effect into high levels of inequality in Europe. (32 p.) consideration, along with other pro- inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET era. (45 p.) D'INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES Risk shocks and divergence between the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK euro area and the US in the aftermath of the great recession Non-performing loans - New risks and policies? NPL resolution after Covid-19: by Thomas Brand et al. main differences to previous crises Highly synchronized during the great by Johannes Kasinger @Kasinger_J et al. recession of 2008-2009, the euro area and the US have diverged in the period that This study discusses policy implications of a followed. This article provide a structural potential surge in NPLs due to Covid-19. It interpretation of these episodes through the provides an empirical assessment of estimation of a business cycle model with potential scenarios and draws lessons from financial frictions and risk shocks. The previous crises for effective NPL treatment. results show that risk shocks seem well It highlights the importance of early and suited to account for the consequences of realistic assessment of loan losses to avoid the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the adverse incentives for banks. (42 p.) subsequent positive effects of unconventional monetary policies. (47 p.) TERRA NOVA LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL De la dette en commun à un nouveau ECONOMY modèle de prospérité pour le continent européen The Wirecard scandal and the role of BaFin: a case for unifying capital markets by Baptiste Perrissin Fabert et al. supervision in the European Union

The question of the absorption of European by Rene Jakubeit "Covid debt" is not urgent. The priority is to defeat the pandemic and to rebuild a more Building on the events that led to the sustainable and resilient European insolvency of Wirecard, a German payment economy. Debt management - Covid or not, service provider, this article provides national or common - must be treated quite arguments for a unified supervision of distinctly from the issue of the recovery capital markets at the EU level. The author plan. However, in order to ensure its very argues that, when facing international long-term sustainability, the social, economic competition in the EU's single environmental and economic value of the market, national supervisors suffer from a economic recovery must be maximized, home-bias phenomena, being incentivize to notes the report. (FR - 34 p.) protect national providers. (46 p.)

16/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

BRUEGEL EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / Low interest rates in Europe and the US: HEALTH AND one trend, two stories CONSUMER AFFAIRS by Maria Demertzis @mariademertzis et al. EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

In both Europe and the US, interest rates Demographic outlook for the European have been declining for more than fifteen Union years. Monetary policy in the euro area will by Monika Kiss et al. be more about preventing financial fragmentation and less about stimulating Recent developments reinforce already demand. Equally, fiscal policy will have existing demographic trends: a strongly more of a supporting rather than stimulating ageing population due to lower fertility rates role. Tackling the structural decline in and increasing life expectancy, coupled with market dynamism and therefore in real rates a shrinking working-age population. will require structural policies to reduce According to research, the coronavirus market power globally and ensure the pandemic has led to slightly higher mortality creation of capital markets in the EU. (19 p.) rates and possibly to lower birth rates, mainly owing to economic reasons such as FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH increased unemployment and poverty. EBERT FOUNDATION) (60 p.) Sovereign debt relief as a global power issue: a political economy analysis EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Jürgen Kaiser The gender gap in the EU’s public employment and leadership The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered a global recession that is bringing ever more by Clara Cotroneo et al. countries to the brink of insolvency. International financial institutions, major This study provides a situational analysis of creditor governments, and the global debt the gender gap in EU and MS public sector, relief movement agree that far-reaching administration and sphere, and identifies debt relief will be necessary for a number of promising policy measures for reducing it. countries, if the poorest countries’ fiscal (91 p.) collapse is to be prevented from becoming a social, and eventually a political, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK conflagration with unforeseeable consequences. (15 p.) Obstacles to the free movement of rainbow families in the EU CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR by Alina Tryfonidou @AlinaTryfonidou et al. INTERNATIONAL PEACE

The European Union, cybersecurity, and the This study examines the obstacles that financial sector: a primer rainbow families (same-sex couples, with or without children) face when they attempt to by Philipp S. Krüger @philippskrueger et al. exercise their free movement rights within the EU; how EU MS treat same-sex married This paper presents a comprehensive couples, registered partners, unregistered overview of the current European regulatory partners, and their children in cross-border landscape for the financial sector situations; and action that EU institutions concerning ICT risk and cybersecurity, could take to remove these obstacles. evaluates the future plans of the EC in this (123 p.) field, and provides recommendations to achieve a consistent, effective, and comprehensive legislative landscape for the European financial sector. (45 p.)

17/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE) ECOLOGIC INSTITUTE Carbon border adjustment mechanism Implementing new EU climate targets (CBAM) by Nils Meyer-Ohlendorf by Galina Kolev @galina_kolev et al.

Legally binding reduction targets for MS This paper explores the potential design of have been the backbone of EU climate a CBAM and discusses several issues policies since 2009. This brief explains why regarding its implementation. Moreover, it reduction targets should be the unequivocal discusses potential impacts using starting point of reforms to make EU climate emissions- and trade-intensive industries rules fit for the EU’s new climate targets. like steel and cement as an example. It calls (5 p.) for investments in climate friendly technologies. (DE - 33 p.) E3G INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL Climate law and the European Green Deal (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD delivery: the choice facing the EU on the ECONOMY) European climate change Council

A CO2-border adjustment mechanism as a by Simon Skillings et al. building block of a climate club

EU institutions are currently negotiating a by Felix Bierbrauer et al. European climate law, intended as the central legislative vehicle to drive delivery of The authors point out that unilateral the European Green Deal (EGD). The European climate policy action, whether concept of an independent expert advisory shored up with a CBAM or not, can only body has emerged as a key element of play a limited role in reducing global CO2- these national climate laws. The EU must emissions. They propose that the EU, now decide if such a body should be together with the US and other like-minded established at EU-level as part of the EU countries, should push hard to establish a climate law. (7 p.) climate club with a common minimum price of CO2 and a common CBAM applied to BRUEGEL third countries. (26 p.)

A whole-economy carbon price for Europe ECOLOGIC INSTITUTE and how to get there A “Fit for 55” package based on by Ottmar Edenhofer et al. environmental integrity and solidarity: The EU’s plan for climate neutrality by 2050 designing an EU climate policy architecture reopens the question of the role carbon for ETS and effort sharing to deliver 55% pricing can and should play. However, lower GHG emissions by 2030 introducing a uniform, credible and durable by Andreas Graf @andreasgraf et al. carbon price across all sectors right away is politically and institutionally challenging. This study sketches a "Fit for 55" package (13 p.) that can ensure both environmental integrity and solidarity. It investigates four options how to regulate heating and transport emissions, focusing in particular on the pros and cons of expanding emissions trading to these sectors. It makes the case for a smart mix of EU-level carbon pricing and companion polices. (48 p.)

18/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK GENERAL AFFAIRS

EU climate action policy: responding to the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK global emergency Reform of the EU own resources by Gregor Erbach et al. by András Schwarcz This study explains the physical basis of climate change and highlights its expected This paper provides a summary of the impacts on the EU. It outlines international system of EU own resources in the light of climate agreements, EU climate action and the agreement on its revision reached the climate policies of major economies. It during the negotiations of the 2021-27 MFF. assesses the coherence of EU climate It shows the rationale for the reform policy with other policy areas and presents including the need to find sources to finance the financing of EU climate action through the repayment of the EU borrowing in the the EU budget and other instruments. framework of the new generation EU (112 p.) initiative. The paper gives a description of each new own resource listed in the INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN Interinstitutional agreement of 2020, and ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY shows their probable policy and budgetary effects. (22 p.) Review of approaches to tracking climate expenditure EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Martin Nesbit @arrhenius et al. Islands of the European Union: state of play and future challenges This report provides an analytical review of existing practices to track climate-related by Diána Haase et al. expenditure. The relevant issues in the EU’s taxonomy regulation, which aims to apply a This paper explores the specificities of tracking discipline to private investment, are islands of the EU (including outermost also summarised. (65 p.) regions), as well as their challenges and existing means of development. It includes an overview of policy responses for islands' ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) challenges, focusing on cohesion policy. The Italy-UK tandem: resetting climate (48 p.) action in the run up to COP26 INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND by Margherita Bianchi @marghebianchi INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

The paper analyses the priorities to shape a Cross-border cultural relations of Croatia transformative, inclusive economic shift and Serbia: milk and honey if money is towards climate neutrality. The author involved focuses on the most polluting countries and their stimulus packages with the climate by Daniela Angelina Jelinčić et al. agenda to be negotiated in November – a process that Italian and UK leaders, The article analyses the role of culture in respectively leading this year’s G7 (UK) and international relations, with special focus on G20 (Italy), as well as co-hosting the its impact in the field of reconciliation COP26, can push forward. (6 p.) between connected communities and long- term consolidation of their relations. It analyses the success of specific EU funding within cross-border cooperation schemes between Croatia and Serbia in enhancing social relations between the two states and their cooperation. (29 p.)

19/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY contribute to harming human rights and the STUDIES environment. This brief notes that this initiative represents a small but important Balkan and Eastern European comparisons: piece of the larger puzzle of redrawing the building a new momentum for the European world along more sustainable lines both in integration of the Balkan and Eastern terms of environmental and humanitarian European associated states impact. (7 p.) by Michael Emerson et al. EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE The study proposes enhancing the ‘more for more’ principle with quantification and The EU’s legal migration acquis: patching benchmarking of ratings for all chapters of up the patchwork the relationships with the EU. A major by Tesseltje de Lange et al. proposed innovation is that in addition to ongoing sectoral and functional integration, The EC and MS must increase intra-EU the EU should officer partial and mobility opportunities for already lawfully progressive institutional integration, present third-country nationals. A strong conditional on performance in relation to the focus on enhancing their intra-EU mobility is ratings, as a more constructive approach imperative to succeed and address than the present ‘all or nothing’ method of Europe’s demographic trends and the accession. (60 p.) foreseeable shortages in the continent’s national labour markets. This paper JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS presents five key recommendations that would improve the patchwork of the legal SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR migration acquis. (28 p.) EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STUDIES) STRATEGIQUE

Fria dataflöden, EU:s integritetsskydd och Extrémisme violent et prévention : nationell säkerhet perspectives Europe-Maghreb de by Maria Wiberg l’approche par la « réconciliation » by Djallil Lounnas et al. EU law offers strong protection of personal data, most recently specified in the GDPR Western European and Arab-Muslim regulation. However, privacy is opposed to countries have developed different methods the need for free data flows in the internal to prevent religious violent extremism. The market and the need for MS to protect Maghreb countries have used different national security. The author highlights goal strategies and 'reconciliation' approaches. conflicts in the EU regulations. (SV - 19 p.) This analysis of 'reconciliation' reveals how preventive responses to religious (jihadist) INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU violent extremism cannot be universal. (FR - EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR 10 p.) EUROPEAN POLICY)

EU Monitor: is EU leading the way to becoming a global change in business and human rights? by Leonor Tavares

In the EP latest agenda, a proposal on business and human rights has been launched urging the EC to present a proposal ensuring that companies are held accountable and liable, when they harm or

20/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) The encryption debate in the European Die Weiterentwicklung der EU- Union: 2021 update Antiterrorismuspolitik: Bedrohungen durch den Jihadismus und Rechtsextremismus by Maria Koomen @mariakoomen und die transatlantische Kooperation The encryption debate in the EU continues by Raphael Bossong @raphaelbossong to evolve, with new drivers, stronger tools, and increasingly higher stakes. The debate The storming of the US-Capitol and terrorist among policymakers and experts is attacks in France and Austria exemplified maturing, but there is a widening knowledge that there is a threat by rightist and Islamist gap between political elites and the public movements. In light of this, this paper around encryption. (14 p.) examines the counter-terrorism agenda for the EU, which was updated in late 2020 and ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT formulates recommendations for future AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN developments. It especially focuses on (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT digital counter-terrorism measures and THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE) transatlantic cooperation. (DE - 8 p.) Analysing the impact of a renewable TRANSPORT / hydrogen quota on the European electricity and natural gas markets TELECOMMUNICATIONS / ENERGY by David Schlund et al.

INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE This report performs a model-based EUROPE) analysis of the impact of a renewable hydrogen quota on EU gas and electricity Faire préférer le train aux Européens markets. By comparing a scenario in which a renewable hydrogen quota with tradable by Matthias Ruete @MatthiasRuete certificates is imposed on final gas consumption in the sectors of the economy The railway was born in Europe. This outside the EU ETS with a reference European year of rail should be an scenario without a quota, it assesses price, opportunity to make rail transport a major quantity and welfare effects. (35 p.) player in clean European mobility while its overall share in the various modes of transport has become relatively low. The ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT railway does not have a problem of AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN / OXFORD decarbonisation but of attractiveness. INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES (17 p.) Contrasting European hydrogen pathways: an analysis of differing approaches in key ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) markets

Europe's quest for digital sovereignty: by Martin Lambert et al. GAIA-X as a case study This study analyses what the economic and by Simona Autolitano et al. political parameters relevant to a future hydrogen economy look like in six European In the context of the discussion about countries: Germany, France, the European “digital sovereignty”, the paper Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and the UK. analyses the GAIA-X project. It affirms that (47 p.) a different strategy to the one currently under discussion will be needed. (23 p.)

21/40

SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)

A hydrogen alliance? The potential for German-Russian cooperation in hydrogen energy by Szymon Kardaś @szymonkardas et al.

Joint hydrogen energy projects are components of the comprehensive Russian- German energy cooperation, however the long-term strategic goals of the hydrogen energy policy pursued by the two states are different. The paper looks into basic divergences in the German and Russian approach to hydrogen energy and presents the outlook for their mutual cooperation in this field. (8 p.)

E3G

What to make of the revised EU energy infrastructure policy? Priorities for improving the TEN-E regulation proposal by Elisa Giannelli @EliGiannelli

One year after the publication of the European Green Deal, the Commission released its revised rules for cross-border European energy infrastructure. This note assesses the rules, and makes recommendations for how to strengthen the proposal. (11 p.)

E3G

Closing the gap to climate neutrality: design principles for a climate neutral energy sector by Lisa Fischer @FactFisching et al.

2021 marks the start of a new cycle of intense legislative activity for the EGD. This analysis aims to focus upcoming energy legislation on the structural elements that are needed to decarbonise the energy sector by mid-century. (26 p.)

22/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Breaking the law of opposite effects: Europe’s strategic autonomy and the revived transatlantic partnership

by Iulian Romanyshyn

This report discusses EU-US relations since the cold war. It notes how the election of Joe Biden might again be a heightened risk that Europeans would fall back into a lazy, self-defeating mind-set of dependency on the US military shield. Breaking this pattern SECTION 3 - FOREIGN of reverse effects and avoiding European complacency is crucial for a healthy AFFAIRS transatlantic partnership, but it requires efforts on both sides of the Atlantic. (6 p.) FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY / DEFENCE INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - Autonomía estratégica Europea: ni contigo, CLINGENDAEL ni sin ti…

Will the European hero please stand up? by Francisco José Dacoba Cerviño by Ties Dams @TiesDams et al. The author argues that, with the complexity of the challenges posed by the new This essay problematizes the EU global commercial and technological powers, as narrative in order to define ways to make it well as the geopolitical challenges, the more competitive in today’s geopolitical strategic autonomy of the EU should no arena. It juxtaposes aspects of the longer be considered exclusively in terms of European narrative with the discursive military capabilities. (ES - 13 p.) moves of China, in order to synthesise elements of a new global narrative for Europe that provides a common sense of INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE purpose with third countries. (36 p.) EUROPE) Sanctions extraterritoriales américaines: GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE vous avez dit autonomie stratégique européenne? The time for EU's Common Foreign Policy is now by Marie-Hélène Bérard et al. by Kinga Brudzińska @KingaBrudzinska (ed.) et al. The authors provide concrete proposals for the EU to protect itself from the effects of In this report, experts analyse what exactly extraterritorial sanctions by creating Europe’s foreign policy priorities should be deterrents and effective countermeasures. in 2021 and what the EU should do to They argue that a comprehensive and well- bolster its strategic ambitions. They argue articulated arsenal of measures to counter that the EU should abandon its Europe- extraterritorial sanctions may be the first centric and inward-looking approach to real operational test of the concept of foreign policy and start developing the “strategic autonomy”. (FR - 6 p.) necessary capabilities to defend its own interests. (13 p.)

23/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR ESTRATÉGICOS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

El espacio exterior, una nueva dimensión The EU and Russia: a new foreign policy for de la seguridad the “Carcass”? by Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos by Marco Franco

The analysis argues that, while technology This brief discusses the EU’s Common makes it more and more accessible, from a Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). It legal perspective outer space is very blandly discusses in what way the EU should regulated, allowing for geopolitical rivalries drastically improve its foreign policy game, over the legal access to it. (ES - 14 p.) and claims that the only way forward for the EU is to define a CFSP that is solidly based REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO on shared values and common interests. (6 p.) ROYAL INSTITUTE)

Ciberdiligencia debida: ¿una actualización EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN necesaria para el derecho internacional del RELATIONS ciberespacio? Push back, contain, and engage: how the by Andrea Cocchini EU should approach relations with Russia

This analysis studies the difficulties in by Carl Bildt @carlbildt et al. attributing a cyberattack with the instruments of international law available This report discusses how the EU has been today. The author suggests resorting to the basing its Russia policy on modest standard of “Due cyber diligence”, which sanctions, periodic offers of engagement, would entail for every state the obligation to and a careful accommodation of Russian prevent possible cyber threats. (ES - 6 p.) strategic sensitivities, while Russia has not taken the same approach. The author ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) claims that the EU should push back against, contain, and engage with Russia, The role of differentiation in EU foreign, bracing itself for rocky diplomatic security and defence policy cooperation interactions with the country. (10 p.) with neighbouring countries INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE by Senem Aydın-Düzgit @SenemAydnDzgit et al. EUROPE) The paper focuses on external Union Européenne / Russie: les sanctions, differentiation in foreign and security policy, et après ? undertaking an in-depth assessment of the ways in which Albania, Georgia, Moldova, by Cyrille Bret Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UK Since 2014, the EU has developed and cooperate with the EU in foreign and renewed a sectoral and individual sanctions security policy. It also focuses on the policy against Russia. If the EU cannot effectiveness, sustainability and legitimacy dismantle sanctions without making an of the EU’s external differentiation with its admission of weakness, it must supplement partners. (22 p.) them with a broad and diversified strategy, notes the author. (17 p.)

24/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

China, EU and US cooperation on Towards cutting-edge European climate and energy: an ever-changing humanitarian leadership relationship by Jean-Louis de Brouwer et al. by Antony Froggatt et al. This report discusses the imminent China, the EU and the US are responsible communication of the EC on humanitarian for around 40 per cent of global greenhouse aid, which is seen as an opportunity to gas emissions and consume nearly half of clarify perimeters and to take measure of the world’s energy. Therefore, decisions how much the EU can leverage support to made in Beijing, Washington and Brussels strengthen principled humanitarian action have significant implications for the world’s across the world. (7 p.) climate and energy security. The year ahead could mark a shift in efforts to tackle ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) the climate crisis. Real-world action needs cooperation, competition and consistency, Reviving and reorienting growth after the claim the authors. (33 p.) pandemic: the role of local infrastructure investments LSE IDEAS by Nicola Bilotta et al. Sea change? The impact of the US presidential election on Central and South- The G20 Italian presidency focuses on the role of investments in local infrastructures. Eastern European security and defence Accordingly, this paper analyses the by Corina Rebegea @CorinaRebegea et al. challenges posed by those investments that focus on the needs of local communities, This report lays out some of the most and proposes some solutions, based on important challenges and opportunities that selected best-practices. (58 p.) the Biden administration will encounter in Central and South Eastern Europe. It LEUVEN CENTRE FOR GLOBAL explores the significance of the priorities GOVERNANCE STUDIES and policies that the new administration might pursue with regard to the region and Upgrading the United Nations - some possible future paths. (28 p.) recommendations from the Leuven Centre for global governance studies

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE by Jan Wouters et al. RESEARCH INSTITUTE In the UN75 declaration, UN MS identified China–EU connectivity in an era of twelve areas that can only be addressed geopolitical competition through reinvigorated multilateralism. This by Ian Anthony et al. report addresses which aspects of governance of those twelve areas, and The long-standing relationship between beyond, most need revamping, and China and the EU is being subsumed into a proposes recommendations for areas in broader geopolitical competition. Alongside which the UN and the global governance cooperation, elements of competition and system need refinement. (34 p.) rivalry have been sharpened by a re- evaluation of the bilateral relationship by EU actors. Areas of cooperation have included Chinese involvement in the EU’s internal connectivity projects. This report examines this cooperation and assesses its prospects. (64 p.)

25/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR economic zone between Turkey and EUROPEAN STUDIES / GLOBSEC / THE Greece. The author argues that while BLACK SEA TRUST FOR REGIONAL European diplomacy could contribute to the COOPERATION search for solutions to the tensions between Greece and Turkey, the Libyan conflict and China in the broader Black Sea region its future will be key to understand how relationships will evolve throughout the by Alexandra Martin @m_alexandra_ area. (ES - 33 p.) The broader Black Sea region is the scene of increasing tensions amid renewed great EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK power competition and conflicting geopolitical and geo-economic interests. Implementation of the EU trust funds and The rise of China and its solidifying regional the facility for refugees in Turkey footprint requires a better understanding of by Alix Delasnerie how this influence is capitalized at national and regional level, what type of challenges it This paper proposes a factual overview of creates for respective countries, and what recent developments in the implementation choices decision-makers have at their of the EU Bêkou trust fund for the Central disposal in this new complex geopolitical African Republic, the EU regional trust fund setting. (64 p.) in response to the Syrian crisis, the EU trust fund for peace in Colombia, the EU trust ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH fund for Africa, and the facility for refugees INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) in Turkey. (34 p.)

The Eastern Mediterranean conflict: from ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Turkey-Greece confrontation to regional power struggles Ten years of the Syrian conflict: time for the EU to reconsider its strategy? by Toni Alaranta @ToniAlaranta by Amer Al Hussein For several decades, the Eastern Mediterranean conflict consisted of a three- The author suggests that, after ten years of part struggle over territorial waters, conflict and devastation in Syria, and with sovereignty and exclusionary national the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, it is narratives between Turkey, Greece, and the high time for Europe to explore creative Republic of Cyprus. Today it also includes means to have a greater impact on the actors such as France, Italy, Libya, Egypt, ground and mitigate the suffering of ordinary and the United Arab Emirates. This paper Syrians across the country. (6 p.) analyses the key determinants of the conflict concluding that tension in the ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Eastern Mediterranean will continue in the foreseeable future. (7 p.) De-securitising and re-prioritising EU-Iraq relations FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS by Flavia Fusco Política exterior de Turquía en el Mediterráneo: conflicto y continuidad The paper claims that the EU strategy for Iraq, even if only three years old, urgently by Marc Saurina needs to be updated, clarified and recalibrated. In the author´s opinion, Iraq’s The paper explores Turkey's foreign policy current challenges not only threaten the in the Mediterranean, in particular with country’s internal equilibria, but also have reference to the growing tension in the disruptive implications for the wider region Eastern Mediterranean for the control of as well as for the EU itself. (7 p.) hydrocarbon deposits and the disputes over the delimitation of a maritime exclusive

26/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) US and Russia have been particularly active in the field of cyberspace information India at a crossroads: SDGs and operations. The transformation of this cooperation with the EU domain therefore poses many challenges to the armed forces, which must adapt to a by Aayushi Liana Shah confrontation that goes well beyond their While the strategic partnership between ordinary scope. (80 p.) India and the EU is yet to realise its full potential, the author claims that sustainable ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) development is a sphere suitable for pragmatic advances. He analyses this Le iniziative diplomatiche per il relationship with regards to cooperation in cyberspazio: punti di forza e di debolezza water sanitation, clean energy and climate and sustainable urban development. (7 p.) by Luigi Martino @mrtlgu The paper studies the measures useful for AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE reducing the risks of conflicts in the cyber domain. The author assesses the diplomatic Europe’s last chance: how the EU can (and initiative put in place to guarantee should) become the indispensable actor in international stability and security in Venezuela’s democratic restoration cyberspace, the main strengths and by Ryan C. Berg et al. weaknesses of these multilateral initiatives, and the Italian role in this context. (IT - The EU’s current policy approach toward 19 p.) Venezuela is insufficient to contribute meaningfully to a political transition in the ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) country and protect human rights. According to the authors, oftentimes, the EU’s policy NATO decision-making in the age of big has been at odds with the US, having data and artificial intelligence permitted unrelated disagreements to cloud its recognition of its strategic interest in a by Sonia Lucarelli (ed.) et al. free, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. (31 p.) This publication is the result of the Conference “NATO decision-making: promises and perils of the big data age”. It EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR analyses three interconnected aspects with SECURITY STUDIES (EUISS) a view to the Alliance’s evolution: big data and organizational challenges for NATO; Curse or blessing? How cheap oil hybrid threats to Allies’ decision-making; the influences conflict dynamics adoption of AI in the defence domain and by Matteo Ilardo NATO’s role. (100 p.)

This brief examines the oil-conflict nexus OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH and analyses the effects of the recent (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. (8 p.) The dispute over Nord Stream 2: the stances and the outlook INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS by Ryszarda Formuszewicz @Formuszewicz et al. INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)

Cyber-influence: les nouveaux enjeux de la The article discusses the interests and the lutte informationnelle stances of the key actors (Russia, Germany, US) regarding the Nord Stream 2 by Laure De Rochegonde @LaureRochegonde et al. project and analyses the ways to regulate this controversial issue as well as possible On the top of non-state actors such as the consequences of the completion of the Islamic state, great powers like China, the pipeline. (8 p.)

27/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

DEVELOPMENT to Eurostat balance of payments statistics, the US are the EU’s most important foreign INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS economics partner while China ranks fourth, INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) after the UK and at a similar level as Switzerland. (DE – 11 p.) Développement et lutte contre la pauvreté: de la réconciliation au changement COLLEGE OF EUROPE d'échelle The new EU screening mechanism for by Rémy Rioux @RiouxRemy et al. foreign direct investments: when the EU Official development assistance represents takes back control only 150 billion per year. However, the by Loïc Carcy countries of the South are suffering considerably from the consequences of the Targeted investments in dual use health crisis and poverty will increase technologies or strategic sectors can then markedly in 2021. Other challenges lie give a decisive position to a state towards ahead, starting with the multiple impacts of others and hence weaponize climate change. Therefore, development aid interdependence. By adopting the regulation must now scale up, suggest the authors. establishing a framework for FDI screening, (FR - 12 p.) the EU stands to protect its strategic and critical assets, even if the framework TRADE remains solely about cooperation and without giving the EC a veto power. (43 p.) HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION) AFRICA

Multilateralismus und das ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH Welthandelssystem: Chancen, Risiken und INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Herausforderungen für Europas Rolle in der Welt African megatrends: looking over the horizon into the future by Markus Ferber @MarkusFerber by Olli Ruohomäki The author explores the world trade and especially Europe's position. He sees an There are seven megatrends shaping the international crisis of multilateralism, future of Africa: population growth, increasing difficulties for the EU foreign urbanization, climate change, trade policy, a WTO that is largely incapable democratization, protracted conflict, of action and China exploiting this political connectivity and geopolitical competition. vacuum. He claims that the EU needs to act The main question is how these megatrends united and realign its trade policy in order to might affect the overall picture of what the remain relevant. (DE - 8 p.) continent will look like in a few decades. (8 p.) INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA ECONOMY) INTERNAZIONALE

Die USA sind mit großem Abstand Europas Unraveling the Sahel: state, politics and wichtigster Wirtschaftspartner armed violence by Martin Braml @MartinBraml et al. by Camillo Casola @cam_casola (ed.)

The authors argue why positions of the The dossier focuses on the situation in the entire current account - and not just goods central Sahel region, where the security trade accounts - are best suited to describe crisis is increasingly worsening, with 2020 economic ties between countries. According being the deadliest since the crisis broke

28/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS out in 2012. The author delves into the main CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL features of the ongoing Sahel crisis, the role INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS of the EU and possible solutions to instability. (39 p.) Indo-Pacific strategies, perceptions and partnerships: the view from seven countries

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR by Cleo Paskal @CleoPaskal SECURITY STUDIES (EUISS) While there is a long history of international African futures 2030 partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, many recent forays in the region are in response by Giovanni Faleg @gioFALEG (ed.) to China’s economic, political and military Among the possible futures for Africa, this expansion there. This paper is based on publication has selected a favourable one, field research, roundtables and face-to-face leading to integration, peace and prosperity. interviews in seven countries (including (113 p.) China) chosen to provide a variety of perspectives and insights on the Indo- Pacific, particularly regarding policy ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE strategies and objectives. (53 p.) WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR Regional redistribution of mineral resource INTERNATIONAL PEACE wealth in Africa The road from Galwan: the future of India- by Zareh Asatryan et al. China relations

This paper studies the economic by Vijay Gokhale @VGokhale59 implications of mineral resource activity for non-mining regions at the grid-level across In June 2020, Indian and Chinese troops the African continent. Its findings suggest engaged in a brawl that left twenty Indian that regional redistribution of resource rents soldiers dead while causing an unspecified in Africa is primarily undertaken to the number of Chinese casualties. The clash is benefit of capital cities and leaders’ birth a part of a broader border standoff along the regions. (40 p.) Galwan river between the two forces on the line of actual control. This paper argues that, long before the present border dispute ASIA-OCEANIA occurred, Sino-Indian relations had been steadily declining due to rampant OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION misperceptions of the other side, contributing to a lack of trust. (36 p.) Maritime opportunities await the India- Japan-France trilateral ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) by Sohini Nayak Conflict and renewed sanctions threaten This report builds on the insights shared Myanmar’s pursuit of the sustainable during the India-Japan-France workshop on development goals the Indo-Pacific held on a virtual platform in January 2021. The discussions explored the by Linda Calabrese @lindacalab prospects in the partnership between the three countries which, despite their The paper analyses the current situation in disparate geographical identities, have Myanmar, in particular the pre-existing analogous interests in the Indo-Pacific. political and economic fragility, compounded (17 p.) by the Covid-19 pandemic, the military coup and growing tensions with international partners. (6 p.)

29/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (CFR) (MENA) Major power rivalry in the Middle East

STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK by Steven A. Cook @stevenacook (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) Great power competition is altering the prospects for managing conflicts in the Das palästinensische Superwahljahr: Middle East. As policymakers rethink the Bedeutung, Herausforderungen und US role in the region, they should avoid the europäische Handlungsoptionen kind of strategic errors that have provided by Muriel Asseburg opportunities for other major powers, notably China and Russia, to undermine US In 2021 there are three elections planned policy. (41 p.) for the Palestinian National Authority and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. The MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE author recommends that the EU and its MS do not only monitor the election, but also A bridge to firmer ground: learning from actively contribute to universal, free, fair and international experiences to support competitive elections, even under difficult pathways to solutions in the Syrian refugee circumstances. (DE - 6 p.) context

by Camille Le Coz @CamilleLeCoz et al. EURO-MEDITERRANEAN STUDY COMMISSION Ten years into Syria's violent conflict, A Euro-Mediterranean green deal? Towards Syrians remain the largest refugee a green economy in the southern population worldwide. This report offers Mediterranean examples of promising initiatives that promote the resilience of refugees and host by Julia Choucair Vizoso et al. communities, and examines how they might apply to the Syrian refugee context. (143 p.) The authors note the transition to a green economy requires a major, structural CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND transformation of economic models, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES domestic and global. While, due to the social, economic and political heterogeneity The changing security dynamics of the in the region, a “one size fits all” solution is MENA region not suitable, common findings and recommendations do emerge across the by Anthony H. Cordesman case studies. (96 p.) The analysis highlights the fact that the security dynamics of the MENA have KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET changed radically over the last decade and (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND will continue to change for the foreseeable TRADE) future. At the beginning of 2011, most MENA nations were at peace and seemed What do Middle Eastern countries expect to be relatively stable. North African from the Biden Administration? countries were at peace under authoritarian by Shirin Afkhami et al. leaders. The Arab-Israeli conflicts were limited to low-level clashes between Israel Biden's election should mean an and Palestine. Egypt acted as a stable improvement in relations with the Foreign major regional power. (126 p.) Ministries damaged by Trump, especially in the Middle Eastern countries. (9 p.)

30/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN WESTERN BALKANS RELATIONS WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE Useful enemies: how the Turkey-UAE rivalry WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA is remaking the Middle East INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES) by Asli Aydıntaşbaş @asliaydintasbas et al. Interrelationships between human capital, According to this report, Turkey and the migration and labour markets in the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a Western Balkans: an econometric decade-long feud that is reshuffling the investigation geopolitical order in the MENA. The EU should develop its own strategy on the by Isilda Mara et al. rivalry, should establish a NATO deconfliction mechanism, push ahead with The high outward mobility from countries in the political process in Libya, and design a the Western Balkan region is often seen as constructive new framework to insulate EU- linked to labour market imbalances and low Turkey relations from the rivalry. (22 p.) utilisation of human capital. This paper examines the period 2005-2019 and considers mobility from five of the WB EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN countries to the then EU15. The results RELATIONS confirm the importance of wage gaps as a Back to democracy: Europe, Hamas, and pull factor for outward mobility. (42 p.) the Palestinian elections WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE by Hugh Lovatt @h_lovatt WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL This report discusses how EU and the US ECONOMIC STUDIES) have a decisive role to play in ensuring the electoral process succeeds in Palestine. Value chain integration of the Western The report states that the EU and the US Balkan countries and policy options for the must commit to respecting the outcome of post-Covid-19 period the Palestinian elections; persuade Israel to support a free, fair, and inclusive process; by Oliver Reiter et al. and pursue a constructive relationship with any new government that pledges respect This analysis shows that potential EU for democracy, human rights, and membership and the earlier Stabilisation international law. (22 p.) and Association agreements boost trade flows between the WB countries and the EU. This suggests that the WB should focus ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) on achieving the maximum possible level of economic integration with the EU even From tectonic shifts to winds of change in before full accession, while EU support for North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s the WB amid the Covid-19 crisis should be role stepped up in order to keep the countries on by Nathalie Tocci @NathalieTocci et al. track for EU integration. (25 p.)

The paper focuses on the impact of Biden' s presidency on MENA. In the authors' opinion, the effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. (16 p.)

31/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ CHINA ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY) GOVERNANCE INNOVATION

Mapping of migration related research and Biotechnology and security threats: policy development in the Western Balkan national responses and prospects for countries- report on prospective regional international cooperation networks by Hanzhi Yu et al. by Ioannis Armakolas et al. The paper argues that the problems related The report analyses migration related to biotechnology and security threats, stakeholders and developments in the WB emerging in China, are in fact common at the levels of governance, academia and problems faced by all countries in the world. research as well as civil society. (210 p.) The first category is the unintentional erroneous use of biotechnology due to GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL objective factors. The second category STUDIES refers to the security threats caused by subjective technology abuse with intent to No amnesty for war crimes: an overview of cause harm to society, resulting in how international law and Kosovo law bioterrorism activities or biological warfare. prohibit amnesty of war crimes and other (18 p.) crimes under international law INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR by Alba Dushi STRATEGIC STUDIES Amnesty of war crimes and other crimes Managing the looming missile-proliferation under international law contradicts the letter problem in the Asia-Pacific and the spirit of international law and domestic law. Due to recent discussions in In this paper, Chinese experts consider the the media about the possibility of amnesty emergence of new missile technologies and of war crimes being part of the Kosovo- the associated risks of proliferation in the Serbia dialogue and in the final agreement Asia-Pacific and what, from a Chinese between the two, this analysis elaborates perspective, could be done to better how such an agreement contradicts manage regional missile control. (7 p.) international law and Kosovo domestic law. (26 p.) MERCATOR INSTITUTE FOR CHINA STUDIES GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL STUDIES China’s social credit system in 2021: from fragmentation towards integration The political (in)stability and Cabinet duration in Kosova: why are governments by Katja Drinhausen et al. short-lived? The social credit system is part of Xi by Mehdi Sejdiu @mehdisejdiu Jinping's vision for data-driven governance. Government organs across regions and This report focuses on Kosovo as a case administrative levels should join hands to study and on the duration of its post- create a coherent information ecosystem. independence governments. It aims to Data-sharing challenges continue to hamper explain why its governments fall before their this effort. The uneven implementation mandate is over and how it can improve its presents risks for individuals and companies government duration and formation alike. There is an acute risk of “credit” processes. (24 p.) becoming an arbitrary term that can be applied with disproportionate punishments. (25 p.)

32/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH No, China does not make everything! INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) by David Henig @DavidHenigUK et al. Russia meets climate change: the domestic politicization of environmental issues and The popular assumption is that everything is external pressure to decarbonize now made in China, and that falling manufacturing employment in the EU and by Jussi Lassila @jussi_lassila et al. US is due to this. The authors argue the assumption is wrong. China is the world’s This paper discusses the prospects of the largest goods exporter, but other countries politicization of climate change in Russia. It have also experienced increases. (5 p.) argues that, as revenues from fossil fuels have direct political and social implications AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC for its legitimacy, the government continues RESEARCH to support the hydrocarbon economy. (7 p.)

Importwettbewerb mit China: Auswirkungen CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR auf das Wachstum der INTERNATIONAL PEACE Unternehmensproduktivität in der EU Russia in the Arctic - a critical examination by Klaus S. Friesenbichler @FriesenbichlerK et al. by Eugene Rumer et al. The increase in the share of Chinese imports in total imports dampened the Russia has big Arctic plans, but how they productivity growth of firms in the EU in the will be realized is uncertain. For the US this period 2003-2016. This effect was more will likely mean the return to a cold war–like pronounced for fast growing companies and environment rather than a new chapter in stronger in the low-tech sector. However, great-power competition in the Arctic. The multinationals were able to benefit from an Kremlin’s rhetoric about Western increase in import intensity with China, with encroachment has become more strident, in high productivity growth amplifying the sync with its enhanced military posture and positives. (DE - 10 p.) ambitious economic and infrastructure projects. (29 p.) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) Diplomatie chinoise : de l'«esprit combattant» au «loup guerrier» Russia's Arctic Council chairmanship in 2021-2023 by Marc Julienne @MarcJulienne et al. by Nurlan Aliyev @anurlan The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted China to develop aggressive The existing political and strategic rivalry communication, with diplomatic between two main Arctic powers, namely representations making extensive use of Russia and the US, affects economic, social media to spread a positive image of environmental and rescue cooperation in Chinese achievements and criticize the region. Russia intends to strengthen the Western countries. This posture could, socio-economic agenda in the Arctic, however, ask Beijing more questions than it despite Moscow’s efforts to project power solves: whether it is effective in exalting there in recent years. (11 p.) nationalism internally, its results on the international level appear globally counterproductive. (15 p.)

33/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) STUDY OF DEMOCRACY) La Russie et le changement climatique: Tackling Kremlin’s media capture in entre déni et adaptation Southeast Europe: shared patterns, specific vulnerabilities and responses to Russian by Bobo Lo disinformation Russia is an exception in the international by Ognian Shentov (ed.) et al. consensus on climate change. It officially recognizes that global warming poses a The study explores the scope, means and threat to the world and to itself. However, to reach of Russia’s sharp power influence date it has not taken any significant steps to through the phenomenon of media capture reduce carbon emissions or develop in Southeast Europe, including EU MS renewable energy sources. Seen from Bulgaria and Croatia as well as EU Moscow, the exploitation of hydrocarbons aspirants Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, plays a fundamental role in its status as a Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and great power and an international economic Kosovo. It reveals both cross-regionally actor. It now seems unlikely that Russia will applicable similarities in the exercise of make a real transition to a post-carbon Kremlin’s informational leverage and economy. (36 p.) country-specific strengths and vulnerabilities. (132 p.) UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT

РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNEMENT МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL) The end of the Brexit transition period : was the UK prepared? Sanctions against Russia: a look into 2021 by Joe Marshall et al. by Ivan Timofeev This article takes stock of how the UK The report analyses the application of government and business weathered the foreign sanctions against Russian citizens, end of the transition period and explores the companies and economy sectors. It also challenges ahead. (26 p.) considers global trends in the use of sanctions and restrictive measures against INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNEMENT Russia within individual areas (the “Ukrainian package,” sanctions against Scottish independence: EU membership pipeline projects, “cyber sanctions,” etc.). and the Anglo–Scottish border (26 p.) by Akash Paun @AkashPaun et al. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES With the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections and a possible second The Nagorno-Karabakh war: a spur to independence referendum approaching, this Moscow’s UAV efforts? article explores the options of an independent Scotland in its future by Julian Cooper relationship with the EU and the UK. (40 p.)

Russia has struggled to develop and field medium and large uninhabited aerial vehicles, but lessons offered from recent wars are adding further impetus to Moscow’s efforts to plug this capability gap. (17 p.)

34/40

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ATLANTIC COUNCIL

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN Raising US climate ambition in advance of RELATIONS COP26: an economic and national security Imperative The evolution of US strategic priorities by Margaret Jackson et al. by Carl Bildt @carlbildt In perspective of COP26 in Glasgow this This report discusses the content of the November, the US must raise its clean Biden administration’s interim national energy and climate ambitions and reassert security strategic guidance. The guide global climate leadership. (22 p.) shows how the administration intends to shift away from America alone and towards INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS America and its allies. The US will now INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) prioritise strategic competition with China, a new approach to trade, the rise of La stratégie de souveraineté minérale technology, the defence of democracy, the américaine: une mobilisation tous azimuts urgent climate and health crises, and efforts to avoid ‘forever wars’ in the Middle by Emmanuel Laplane East. (12 p.) The energy transition will use a lot of minerals and metals, so that securing FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE supplies and organizing responsible and STRATEGIQUE sustainable value chains are now crucial issues. The US finds itself in a position of Les grands dossiers nucléaires et la growing external dependence and nouvelle administration Biden weakness, even vulnerability, particularly by Sophie Moreau-Brillatz vis-à-vis China. (24 p.)

The new US President will be confronted to COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (CFR) numerous challenges requiring strategies for the short, medium and long term, China’s Belt and Road implications for the particularly with regard to future United States negotiations with Iran and Russia. (FR - 9 p.) The Belt and Road Initiative, the world’s largest infrastructure program, poses a significant challenge to US economic, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION political, climate change, security, and Expanding opportunities for Canada-US global health interests. (190 p.) coordination on China CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND by Ryan Hass @ryanl_hass INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

This report takes stock of how the arrival of Global networks 2030: developing Joe Biden to the White House represents an economies and emerging technologies opportunity for Washington and Ottawa to act on a shared agenda with respect to by Jonathan E. Hillman et al. China. (12 p.) US-China technology competition is set to intensify in third markets as developing countries decide which communications systems to adopt. This report identifies key economic trends, emerging technologies, and strategic options for defending global networks through 2030. (36 p.)

35/40

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES

GERMANY

INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE)

Verteidigungsausgaben in Deutschland

by Hubertus Bardt @H_Bardt

This paper studies the development of defence spending in Germany. It states that defence spending is a public good that can be justified economically, and has decreased in Germany since the end of the SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER cold war. Germany will most likely continue STATES to miss the NATO two percent mark in the coming years. (DE - 21 p.) BULGARIA ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE ИНСТИТУТ ЗА ПАЗАРНА ИКОНОМИКА WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR (INSTITUTE FOR MARKET ECONOMICS) EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Discussion on populism in the economy What drives carbon emissions in German and regulation of human action manufacturing: scale, technique or composition? The article investigates various examples of economic populism and regulations that by Elisa Rottner et al. have a direct effect on economic activity and the social environment in Bulgaria. The Carbon emissions from German examples discussed present the situation in manufacturing have increased over the past many different human activities – from decade, while carbon intensity has declined sharing economy to social activities, where only slightly. This paper decomposes there is a gap between real needs/actions changes in emissions between 2005 and and the current regulatory framework. (8 p.) 2017 and finds evidence that the production composition in the German manufacturing sector is increasingly shifting towards less DENMARK carbon intensive products; it finds evidence to suggest that the energy intensity of TÆNKETANKEN EUROPA production has increased. (43 p.) Sådan kan EU’s genopretningsfond blive Danmarks hidtidigt største eksportfremstød SAFE - SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR FINANCE IN EUROPE by Jan Høst Schmidt BaFin (in)dependence – A reform proposal The EU recovery fund is close to being approved by MS' parliaments, and by Ann-Katrin Kaufhold governments are finalizing their recovery plans. The fund has the potential to become This white paper puts forward a legal Denmark's largest export promotion to date, argument in favour of granting more but it requires the government and the independence to BaFin, the German business community to increase their efforts securities market supervisor. Following the in countries that do not normally fill much of Wirecard scandal, the reform proposal aims the Danish export statistics. (DA - 9 p.) at strengthening the impartiality and credibility of the German supervisor and at restoring capital market integrity. (36 p.)

36/40

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES

GREECE FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC Lost in recession: youth employment and FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN earnings in Spain POLICY) by Samuel Bentolila @SamBen8 et al. H Ευρωπαϊκή Ελλάδα σε μια Ευρώπη που προστατεύει The paper focuses on the situation of young workers in Spain, who have experienced a by Margaritis Schinas @MargSchinas deterioration in their employment and earnings over the last three decades. It In his article "A European Greece in a shows that employment and earnings Europe that protects its people", the Vice- losses suffered by young workers during President of the EC focuses on the recessions are not made up in the occasion of the 40th anniversary of subsequent expansions. (36 p.) Greece’s accession to the EU. 2021 is also the bicentenary of the modern Greek state, FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA and the Greeks have every right to be proud APLICADA and confident as they celebrate two centuries of freedom. He concludes that a Asegurar la gran edad lot has changed over the four decades in which Greece and Europe have charted by José A. Herce @_Herce their common course, passing through a period of European “innocence” into one of According the author, given the growing European maturity. (EL - 8 p.) increase in life expectancy, both the social security and the pension industry face a lack of feasibility due to their resistance to SPAIN change. As a result, he proposes a pension design capable of facilitating change and REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO adapting to the advancement of life ROYAL INSTITUTE) expectancy. (ES - 12 p.) La opinión pública ante la inmigración y el efecto de VOX FRANCE by Carmen González Enríquez et al. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR The article analyzes the evolution of INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) Spanish public opinion regarding immigration, showing a slight increase in Frankreichs Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik negative attitudes towards immigration. unter Präsident Macron: Konsequenzen für While it is not clear to what extent this is die deutsch-französische Zusammenarbeit due to the presence of the VOX party, to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 or to by Ronja Kempin @RonjaKempin (ed.) the arrival of irregular immigrants to the Canary Islands, it is clear for the author that This paper analyses the French foreign and VOX has a role in the growing ideological security policy during the presidency of polarization of opinions, which makes a Emmanuel Macron. It especially aims at rational debate on immigration and its finding ways to improve the Franco-German management difficult. (ES - 10 p.) cooperation. It identifies better communication as main solution to cooperation problems. (DE - 54 p.)

37/40

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES

FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION NETHERLANDS POLITIQUE INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE Quel avenir pour l'agriculture et EUROPE) l'alimentation bio ? Les Pays-Bas: dans la cour des grands ? by Gil Kressmann by Sébastien Maillard @seb_maillard Now the organic has become a major market. The competitive environment for Τhe author claims that Brexit brings the organic sectors is changing dramatically, Netherlands to light, which is showing itself with the emergence of new players. to be the most active in asserting its Encouraged to industrialize and positions within the Union, thanks to a internationalize at the risk of jeopardizing its strategy of alliances fluctuating according to fundamentals, the organic sector is their interests and a new positioning in the nevertheless forced to question itself. (FR - Franco-German couple. (9 p.) 76 p.) NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR ITALY INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Dutch views of China Advancing the 2030 agenda post-corona: what role for the G20 Italian presidency? by Frans Paul van der Putten et al. by Geert Laporte et al. This report discusses how the Dutch public regards the rise of China as a threat to The paper analyses the future Italian G20 European security, ranking it the second- presidency in the light of the crucial moment biggest threat after pressure from when the world confronts the pandemic. immigrants on the EU’s external borders. The economic and social consequences of (11 p.) the Covid-19 crisis has had major impact on the implementation of the sustainable development goals and the 2030 agenda. THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC (7 p.) STUDIES Gas supply security in the Netherlands: LITHUANIA geopolitical and environmental dilemmas

RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE by Irina Patrahau KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR This paper discusses how the decline in DEFENCE AND SECURITY) domestic gas production has resulted in the The long shadow of a nuclear monster: Netherlands becoming increasingly Lithuanian responses to the Astravyets dependent on external imports of natural NPP in Belarus gas. It claims that growing dependence on Russia weakens the geopolitical position of by Tomas Janeliūnas the Netherlands and of the EU as a whole. (36 p.) The Astravyets nuclear power plant, which is located just 50 km from Vilnius, is of great concern to the Lithuanian public and government due to major safety issues that remain unaddressed by the authorities of Belarus. This analysis provides an overview of the current situation. (15 p.)

38/40

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES

NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR AUSTRIA INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL INSTITUT FÜR FRIEDENSSICHERUNG UND KONFLIKTMANAGEMENT (IFK) Geopolitical genesis Dutch foreign and security policy in a post-Covid world Risk assessment Austria: five challenges to watch in 2021 by Jack Thompson @JackThompson_8 et al. by Johann Frank @johannfrank_(ed.) This strategic monitor analyses why the US-Dutch and US-European relationships This multilingual assessment is intended to have changed permanently. It offers contribute to the development of a shared recommendations for what the Netherlands understanding of risk and to an open, and its European partners should do over multilingual discourse on important security the next ten years to preserve their interests policy issues of our time. It is now more and values. (160 p.) imperative than ever to strengthen our comprehensive approach to security due to crisis-laden and hybrid developments around THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC and within Europe in recent years, such as STUDIES international terrorism, persistent pressure from Strategic alert: towards a space security migration, increasing cyber risks, escalating strategy regional conflicts in our vicinity, and now also the Covid-19 pandemic. (203 p.) by Hugo van Manen et al. The Netherlands boasts a productive and innovative space industry. The increasing number of actors operating in space raises the scope for geopolitical competition. This brief delves into the challenges and opportunities of the space age and how the Netherlands, and the world, should deal with them. (23 p.)

ADVIESRAAD INTERNATIONALE VRAAGSTUKKEN

Nederland in de wereld: agenda voor het buitenlands beleid

This foreign policy agenda is presented for the coming government's term of office. It includes policy recommendations on positioning of the EU, security and stability, protection of fundamental rights and values, interdependence and international cooperation, and co-responsibility for the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom in international relations. (NL – 14 p.)

39/40

MISCELLANEOUS

MISCELLANEOUS

LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SOCIO- ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Accounting for differences in income inequality across countries: tax-benefit policy, labour market structure, returns and demographics by Denisa M. Sologon @denisasologon et al.

This paper presents a framework for studying international differences in the distribution of household income. It quantifies the role of tax-benefit systems, employment and occupational structures, labour and financial market returns, and demographic composition in accounting for differences in income inequality across countries. (31 p.)

40/40