87 PLAGUE Causative Agent Yersinia Pestis Incubation Period 2-6 Days

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

87 PLAGUE Causative Agent Yersinia Pestis Incubation Period 2-6 Days PLAGUE Causative Agent PLAGUE Yersinia pestis Causative Agent IncubationYersinia pestis Period 2 -6 days Incubation Period Infectious2-6 days Period Throughout duration of illness (pneumonic plague is the most important infectious form).Infectious Period Throughout duration of illness (pneumonic plague is the most important infectious Tform).ransmission Transmitted from rats by flea bites, by handling infected animal tissues, or airborne Tbyransmission aerosol from animals or humans with pneumonic plague. Transmitted from rats by flea bites, by handling infected animal tissues, or airborne Epidemiologyby aerosol from animals or humans with pneumonic plague. There are natural foci of plague infection of rodents in many parts of the world. WildEpidemiology rodent plague is present in central, eastern and southern Africa, South AmeThererica, are thenatural western foci partof plague of North infection America of rodentsand in largein many areas parts of Asia.of the In world. some areas,Wild contactrodent betweenplague iswild present and domestic in central, rats iseastern common, and resulting southern in sporadicAfrica, Southcases ofAme humanrica, plaguethe western and occasional part of North outbreaks. America and in large areas of Asia. In some areas, contact between wild and domestic rats is common, resulting in sporadic cases ofIn humanSoutheast plague Asia, and Myanmar occasional and outbreaks.Vietnam report the highest number of cases. ClinicalIn Southeast Features Asia, Myanmar and Vietnam report the highest number of cases. Plague should be suspected in anyone with fever and painful lymphadenopathy who hasClinical been Featuresto an endemic country. Plague should be suspected in anyone with fever and painful lymphadenopathy who Therehas been are to three an endemic principal country. clinical presentations: Bubonic plague: initial fever, headache, myalgia followed by painful acute Thereregional are three lymphadenopathy principal clinical presentations:(pathognomonic bubo), typically involving the inguinal,Bubonic plagueaxillary: initialor cervical fever, regions.headache, If leftmyalgia untreated, followed rapid by progressionpainful acute to septiregionalcaemia lymphadenopathy and secondary plague (pathognomonic pneumonia occursbubo), (fatality typically 50 - involving60%). the inguinal,Septicaemic axillary plague or: occurscervical when regions. Y. pestis If left invades untreated, the bloodstream.rapid progression It can to septifollowca ebubonicmia and plaguesecondary or occurs plague without pneumonia detectable occurs lymphadenopathy(fatality 50 - 60%). (primary septicaemicSepticaemic plagueplague).: occurs Complications when Y. pestisinclude invades septic the shock,bloodstream. disseminated It can fointravascularllow bubonic coagulation, plague or occursmeningitis without and multiorgandetectable lymphadenopathyfailure. (primary Pneumonicsepticaemic plague:plague). the leastComplications common but incl theude most septic dangerous shock, and disseminatedfatal form of theintravascular disease. Itcoagulation, can develop meningitis as a complication and multiorgan of failure.septicaemic plague or be Pneumonicacquired dire plague:ctly by the inhalation least common of aerosols but the mostfrom dangerous a human andor fatalanimal form with of thepne udisease.monic plague. It can Thedevelop signs as include a complication severe pneumonia, of septicaemic fever, dyspnoeaplague or andbe acquired directly by inhalation of aerosols from a human or animal with pneumonic plague. The signs include severe pneumonia, fever, dyspnoea and 87 87 often haemoptysis. Patients who do not receive treatment within 18 hours of onset of respiratory symptoms are unlikely to survive. often haemoptysis. Patients who do not receive treatment within 18 hours of Investigationsonset of respiratory symptoms are unlikely to survive. Blood, bubo aspirate, sputum/throat swab, necropsy material can be sent for Investigationsisolation of Y. pestis. AcuteBlood, and bubo convalescent aspirate, sputum/throat serology for fourfoldswab, necropsy rise in titre. material A single can titre be >1:16sent for is suggestive.isolation of Y. pestis. AcuteInform and the convalescentlaboratory beforehand serology forso fourfoldthat arrangements rise in titre. can A besingle made titre to >1:16forward is suggestive.samples if necessary to the Department of Pathology, Singapore General InformHospital, the or laboratory other designated beforehand sites. so that arrangements can be made to forward samples if necessary to the Department of Pathology, Singapore General NotificationHospital, or other designated sites. A legally notifiable disease in Singapore. Notify Ministry of Health (Form MD 131 Notificationor electronically via CD-LENS) not later than 24 hours from the time of diagnosis. ACall legally MOH notifiable Communicable disease Diseasesin Singapore. Surveillance Notify Ministry team at: of 98171463Health (Form immediately MD 131 oron electronsuspicion.ically via CD-LENS) not later than 24 hours from the time of diagnosis. Call MOH Communicable Diseases Surveillance team at: 98171463 immediately Managementon suspicion. All cases must be managed at the Communicable Disease Centre (CDC). Management AllGentamicin, cases must st reptomycin,be managed atchloramphenicol the Communicable or tetracyclineDisease Centre are (CDC).highly effective if used within hours of presentation. Gentamicin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol or tetracycline are highly effective if Infectionused within Control hours of presentation. Patients with uncomplicated infection who are promptly treated present no Infectionhealth Control hazard to others. PatientsThose with with cough uncomplicated and other infectionsigns of whopneumonia are promptly must betreated placed present in strict no healthrespira hazardtory isolation to others. for at least 48 hours after the institution of antibiotic Thosetherapy withor until cough the sputumand other culture signs is negative.of pneumonia must be placed in strict respirBubo aaspiratetory isolation and blood for atmust least be 48handled hours withafter glovesthe institution and aerosolization of antibiotic of therapythese materials or until shouldthe sputum be avoided. culture is negative. BuboLaboratory aspirate workers and bloodmust bemust alerted be handled to exercise with precautionsgloves and althoughaerosolization standard of thesebacteriological materials techniquesshould be avoided. that safeguard against skin contact and aerosolization Laboratoryshould be adequate. workers must be alerted to exercise precautions although standard bacteriological techniques that safeguard against skin contact and aerosolization Preventionshould beand adequate. Control All cases will be isolated at CDC, Tan Tock Seng Hospital. Prevention Case investigations and Control will be carried out and contact tracing will be intensified. InAll the cases event will of be death, isolated proper at CDC, disposal Tan of Tock the body Seng is Hospital. important. CasesCase investigations and close contacts, will be including carried out their and clothing contact andtracing personal will be belongings, intensified. will beIn thedisinfected event of withdeath, insecticide proper disposal dusting. of the body is important. Cases and close contacts, including their clothing and personal belongings, will be disinfected with insecticide dusting. 88 88 Anti-flea measures and rodent trapping will be increased at the focus of transmission. TheAnti -publicflea measures and the World and rodentHealth Organisationtrapping will will be beincreased informed at of theall suspectedfocus of andtran sconfirmedmission. cases. The public andwill thebe Worldadvised Health to step Organisation up measures will to preventbe informed rodent of infestationall suspected in theand premisesconfirmed and cases. to avoid contact with rodents (either live or dead). The public will be advised to step up measures to prevent rodent infestation in Chemoprophylaxisthe premises and to avoid contact with rodents (either live or dead). Consider antibiotic prophylaxis for the following: Chemoprophylaxis. Persons exposed to patients with pneumonic plague. Consider. Persons antibiotic exposed prophylaxis to bites forof thewild following: rodent fleas during an outbreak or to . tiPersonsssues/fluids exposed of a to plague patients-infected with pneumonic animal. plague. Persons travellingexposed toto highlybites endemicof wild arearodent for shortfleas duration.during an outbreak or to tissues/fluids of a plague-infected animal. For. Personsadults, travellingdoxycycline to highly is the endemic best choicearea for (100mgshort duration. orally bd for 7 days). Trimethoprim -sulfamethoxazole is a suitable alternative. For adults, doxycycline is the best choice (100mg orally bd for 7 days). IndicationsTrimethoprim for-sulfameth vaccine oxazoleusage is a suitable alternative. A formalin-killed plague vaccine has been used for the following groups: Indications Travellers for to vaccine endemic usage or hyperendemic areas. A formalinIndividuals-killed who plague must vaccine live and has work been in used close for contact the following with rodents. groups: LaboraTravellerstory to workers endemic who or hyperendemicmust handle live areas. cultures of Y. pestis. MilitaryIndividuals personnel who must deployed live and in workplague in- endemicclose contact areas. with rodents. Laboratory workers who must handle live cultures of Y. pestis. This Militaryvaccine ispersonnel not routinely
Recommended publications
  • Period of Presymptomatic Transmission
    PERIOD OF PRESYMPTOMATIC TRANSMISSION RAG 17/09/2020 QUESTION Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 before onset of symptoms in the index is known, and this is supported by data on viral shedding. Based on the assumption that the viral load in the upper respiratory tract is highest one day before and the days immediately after onset of symptoms, current procedures for contact tracing (high and low risk contacts), go back two days before start of symptoms in the index (or sampling date in asymptomatic persons) (1), (2), (3). This is in line with the ECDC and WHO guidelines to consider all potential contacts of a case starting 48h before symptom onset (4) (5). The question was asked whether this period should be extended. BACKGROUND Viral load According to ECDC and WHO, viral RNA can be detected from one to three days before the onset of symptoms (6,7). The highest viral loads, as measured by RT-PCR, are observed around the day of symptom onset, followed by a gradual decline over time (1,3,8–10) . Period of transmission A much-cited study by He and colleagues and published in Nature used publicly available data from 77 transmission pairs to model infectiousness, using the reported serial interval (the period between symptom onset in infector-infectee) and combining this with the median incubation period. They conclude that infectiousness peaks around symptom onset. The initial article stated that the infectious period started at 2.3 days before symptom onset. However, a Swiss team spotted an error in their code and the authors issued a correction, stating the infectious period can start from as early as 12.3 days before symptom onset (11).
    [Show full text]
  • Measles: Chapter 7.1 Chapter 7: Measles Paul A
    VPD Surveillance Manual 7 Measles: Chapter 7.1 Chapter 7: Measles Paul A. Gastanaduy, MD, MPH; Susan B. Redd; Nakia S. Clemmons, MPH; Adria D. Lee, MSPH; Carole J. Hickman, PhD; Paul A. Rota, PhD; Manisha Patel, MD, MS I. Disease Description Measles is an acute viral illness caused by a virus in the family paramyxovirus, genus Morbillivirus. Measles is characterized by a prodrome of fever (as high as 105°F) and malaise, cough, coryza, and conjunctivitis, followed by a maculopapular rash.1 The rash spreads from head to trunk to lower extremities. Measles is usually a mild or moderately severe illness. However, measles can result in complications such as pneumonia, encephalitis, and death. Approximately one case of encephalitis2 and two to three deaths may occur for every 1,000 reported measles cases.3 One rare long-term sequelae of measles virus infection is subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), a fatal disease of the central nervous system that generally develops 7–10 years after infection. Among persons who contracted measles during the resurgence in the United States (U.S.) in 1989–1991, the risk of SSPE was estimated to be 7–11 cases/100,000 cases of measles.4 The risk of developing SSPE may be higher when measles occurs prior to the second year of life.4 The average incubation period for measles is 11–12 days,5 and the average interval between exposure and rash onset is 14 days, with a range of 7–21 days.1, 6 Persons with measles are usually considered infectious from four days before until four days after onset of rash with the rash onset being considered as day zero.
    [Show full text]
  • Superspreading of Airborne Pathogens in a Heterogeneous World Julius B
    www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world Julius B. Kirkegaard*, Joachim Mathiesen & Kim Sneppen Epidemics are regularly associated with reports of superspreading: single individuals infecting many others. How do we determine if such events are due to people inherently being biological superspreaders or simply due to random chance? We present an analytically solvable model for airborne diseases which reveal the spreading statistics of epidemics in socio-spatial heterogeneous spaces and provide a baseline to which data may be compared. In contrast to classical SIR models, we explicitly model social events where airborne pathogen transmission allows a single individual to infect many simultaneously, a key feature that generates distinctive output statistics. We fnd that diseases that have a short duration of high infectiousness can give extreme statistics such as 20% infecting more than 80%, depending on the socio-spatial heterogeneity. Quantifying this by a distribution over sizes of social gatherings, tracking data of social proximity for university students suggest that this can be a approximated by a power law. Finally, we study mitigation eforts applied to our model. We fnd that the efect of banning large gatherings works equally well for diseases with any duration of infectiousness, but depends strongly on socio-spatial heterogeneity. Te statistics of an on-going epidemic depend on a number of factors. Most directly: How easily is it transmit- ted? And how long are individuals afected and infectious? Scientifc papers and news paper articles alike tend to summarize the intensity of epidemics in a single number, R0 . Tis basic reproduction number is a measure of the average number of individuals an infected patient will successfully transmit the disease to.
    [Show full text]
  • Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19
    ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 05 July 2021 doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.691262 Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19 Xiujuan Tang 1, Salihu S. Musa 2,3, Shi Zhao 4,5, Shujiang Mei 1 and Daihai He 2* 1 Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China, 2 Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, 3 Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria, 4 The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, 5 Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China In susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number and exaggerated expectation of Edited by: infection attack rate (AR) and control efficacy. We argue that it is important to use Reza Lashgari, suitable epidemiological parameter values for proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, Institute for Research in Fundamental we propose an epidemic model to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 Sciences, Iran for Belgium, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
    [Show full text]
  • Mumps Public Information
    Louisiana Office of Public Health Infectious Disease Epidemiology Section Phone: 1-800-256-2748 www.infectiousdisease.dhh.louisiana.gov Mumps What is mumps? How is mumps diagnosed? Mumps is a disease that is caused by the mumps virus. It spreads Mumps is diagnosed by a combination of symptoms and physical easily through coughing and sneezing. Mumps can cause fever, signs and laboratory confirmation of the virus, as not all cases headache, body aches, fatigue and inflammation of the salivary develop characteristic parotitis, and not all cases of parotitis are (spit) glands, which can lead to swelling of the cheeks and jaws. caused by mumps. Who gets mumps? What is the treatment for mumps? Mumps is a common childhood disease, but adults can also get There is no “cure” for mumps, only supportive treatment (bed mumps. While vaccination reduces the chances of getting ill rest, fluids and fever reduction). Most cases will recover on their considerably, even those fully immunized can get the disease. own. How do people get mumps? If someone becomes very ill, he/she should seek medical Mumps is spread from person to person. When an infected attention. The ill person should call the doctor in advance so that person talks, coughs or sneezes, the virus is released into the air he/she doesn’t have to sit in the waiting room for a long time and and enters another person’s body through the nose, mouth or possibly infect other patients. throat. People can also become sick if they eat food or use utensils, cups or other objects that have come into contact with How can mumps be prevented? the mucus or saliva (spit) from an infected person.
    [Show full text]
  • Incubation Periods Impact the Spatial Predictability of Cholera and Ebola Outbreaks in Sierra Leone
    Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone Rebecca Kahna,1, Corey M. Peaka,1, Juan Fernández-Graciaa,b, Alexandra Hillc, Amara Jambaid, Louisa Gandae, Marcia C. Castrof, and Caroline O. Buckeea,2 aCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115; bInstitute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems, Universitat de les Illes Balears - Consell Superior d’Investigacions Científiques, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain; cDisease Control in Humanitarian Emergencies, World Health Organization, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland; dDisease Control and Prevention, Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone FPGG+89; eCountry Office, World Health Organization, Freetown, Sierra Leone FPGG+89; and fDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115 Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved January 22, 2020 (received for review July 29, 2019) Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during total number of secondary infections by an infectious individual in an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. a completely susceptible population (i.e., R0) (13, 14). Indeed, the However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with basis of contact tracing protocols during an outbreak reflects the respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by need to identify and contain individuals during the incubation numerous factors, including the pathogen’s underlying transmission period, and the relative effectiveness of interventions such as parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and pop- symptom monitoring or quarantine significantly depends on the ulation connectivity, and environmental conditions.
    [Show full text]
  • The Implications of Silent Transmission for the Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks
    The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks BRIEF REPORT Seyed M. Moghadasa,1, Meagan C. Fitzpatrickb,c,1, Pratha Sahb, Abhishek Pandeyb, Affan Shoukatb, Burton H. Singerd,2, and Alison P. Galvanib,2 aAgent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; bCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510; cCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201; and dEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 Edited by Mary E. Power, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and approved June 23, 2020 (received for review April 30, 2020) Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprece- Results dented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have Translating clinical data on infectiousness and symptoms (1) to been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have population-level epidemiological impact, our results indicate fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide that the majority of transmission is attributable to people who restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing trans- are not exhibiting symptoms, either because they are still in the mission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in pre- presymptomatic stage or the infection is asymptomatic (Fig. 1). venting a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and Specifically, if 17.9% of infections are asymptomatic (5), we asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymp- found that the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections tomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual- account for 48% and 3.4% of transmission, respectively (Fig.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Transmission Dynamics and Epidemiological Characteristics of Delta Variant Infections
    medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.12.21261991; this version posted August 13, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 1 Transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of Delta variant infections 2 in China 3 4 Min Kang1*, Hualei Xin2*, Jun Yuan3, Sheikh Taslim Ali2,4, Zimian Liang5, Jiayi Zhang1, 5 Ting Hu1, Eric H. Y. Lau2,4, Yingtao Zhang1, Meng Zhang1, Benjamin J. Cowling2,4, Yan Li1‡, 6 Peng Wu2,4‡ 7 8 * These authors contributed equally (joint first authors). 9 ‡ These authors contributed equally (joint senior authors). 10 11 Affiliations: 12 1. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, 13 China 14 2. WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of 15 Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 16 Special Administrative Region, China. 17 3. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, China 18 4. Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science Park, New 19 Territories, Hong Kong. 20 5. Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, China 21 22 Corresponding authors: 23 Benjamin J. Cowling, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The 24 University of Hong Kong, 7 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong 25 Tel: +852 3917 6711; Email: [email protected] NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.1 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.12.21261991; this version posted August 13, 2021.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Convergence of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number and Estimation from Early-Time SIR Dynamics
    PLOS ONE RESEARCH ARTICLE Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics 1,2 1☯ 3,4☯ 5☯ Gabriel G. KatulID *, Assaad MradID , Sara BonettiID , Gabriele ManoliID , Anthony 6☯ J. ParolariID 1 Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America, 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America, a1111111111 3 Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZuÈrich, ZuÈrich, Switzerland, 4 Bartlett School of a1111111111 Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom, 5 Department of a1111111111 Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom, 6 Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, a1111111111 Wisconsin, United States of America a1111111111 ☯ These authors contributed equally to this work. * [email protected] OPEN ACCESS Abstract Citation: Katul GG, Mrad A, Bonetti S, Manoli G, Parolari AJ (2020) Global convergence of COVID- The SIR (`susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic 19 basic reproduction number and estimation from spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early early-time SIR dynamics. PLoS ONE 15(9): phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively e0239800. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0239800 put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of Editor: Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, GERMANY COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation.
    [Show full text]
  • The Timing of COVID-19 Transmission
    medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188516; this version posted September 16, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. The timing of COVID-19 transmission Luca Ferretti1, Alice Ledda2, Chris Wymant1, Lele Zhao1, Virginia Ledda3, Lucie Abeler- Dörner1, Michelle Kendall1, Anel Nurtay1, Hao-Yuan Cheng4, Ta-Chou Ng5, Hsien-Ho Lin5, Rob Hinch1, Joanna Masel6, A. Marm Kilpatrick7, Christophe Fraser1* 1 Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OXford, UK 2 MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 3 Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, UK 4 Epidemic Intelligence Center, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan 5 Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Public Health; Global Health Program, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan 6 Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, USA 7 Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA *Email: [email protected] Abstract: The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection.
    [Show full text]
  • Ring Vaccination and Smallpox Control Mirjam Kretzschmar,* Susan Van Den Hof,* Jacco Wallinga,* and Jan Van Wijngaarden†
    RESEARCH Ring Vaccination and Smallpox Control Mirjam Kretzschmar,* Susan van den Hof,* Jacco Wallinga,* and Jan van Wijngaarden† We present a stochastic model for the spread of small- We investigated which conditions are the best for effec- pox after a small number of index cases are introduced into tive use of ring vaccination, a strategy in which direct con- a susceptible population. The model describes a branching tacts of diagnosed cases are identified and vaccinated. We process for the spread of the infection and the effects of also investigated whether monitoring contacts contributes intervention measures. We discuss scenarios in which ring to the success of ring vaccination. We used a stochastic vaccination of direct contacts of infected persons is suffi- cient to contain an epidemic. Ring vaccination can be suc- model that distinguished between close and casual con- cessful if infectious cases are rapidly diagnosed. However, tacts to explore the variability in the number of infected because of the inherent stochastic nature of epidemic out- persons during an outbreak, and the time until the outbreak breaks, both the size and duration of contained outbreaks is over. We derived expressions for the basic reproduction are highly variable. Intervention requirements depend on number (R0) and the effective reproduction number (Rυ). the basic reproduction number (R0), for which different esti- We investigated how effectiveness of ring vaccination mates exist. When faced with the decision of whether to rely depends on the time until diagnosis of a symptomatic case, on ring vaccination, the public health community should be the time to identify and vaccinate contacts in the close con- aware that an epidemic might take time to subside even for tact and casual contact ring, and the vaccination coverage an eventually successful intervention strategy.
    [Show full text]
  • Surveillance Protocol
    May 2019 Measles (Rubeola) Surveillance Protocol Measles is a highly communicable paramyxovirus that has only one antigenic type. Measles is an acute, viral, systemic infection, primarily of the respiratory epithelium of the nasopharynx. The virus invades and replicates in the respiratory epithelium and regional lymph nodes. A prodrome of fever that increases in stepwise fashion, followed by cough, coryza, or conjunctivitis occurs 10 to 12 days after exposure. A maculopapular rash occurs 2 to 4 days after the prodrome and about 14 days after exposure. The measles rash starts on the face and upper neck and persists for 5 to 6 days, gradually proceeding downward and outward. Transmission of measles occurs person to person by contact with respiratory droplets or through airborne spread. Vaccination for measles is available and routinely recommended in the United States. The measles virus vaccine is available combined with mumps and rubella vaccines as MMR, or combined with mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine as MMRV. Healthcare Provider Responsibilities 1. Consider measles as a diagnosis in anyone with a febrile rash illness and clinically compatible symptoms (cough, coryza, and/or conjunctivitis) who has recently traveled abroad or who has had contact with someone with a febrile rash illness. Immunocompromised patients may not exhibit rash or may exhibit an atypical rash. The incubation period for measles from exposure to fever is usually about 10 days (range, 7 to 12 days) and from exposure to rash onset is usually 14 days (range, 7 to 21 days). 2. Suspect measles patients should be immediately placed in isolation with airborne transmission precautions for 4 days after the onset of rash in otherwise healthy children and for the duration of illness in immunocompromised patients.
    [Show full text]