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The Big Nine RESEARCH The Big Nine Quarterly update of regional office activity Q4 2020 Two Chamberlain Square, Birmingham Occupier market in brief LARGE PRE-LET COMMITMENTS AND SPECULATIVE STARTS PROVIDE SOME OPTIMISM TOTAL TAKE-UP IN Q4 FOLLOWING LOW TAKE-UP IN 2020 Total take-up across the Big Nine cities amounted to 5.6 million sq ft during 2020, which is 33% down on the 1,574,854 sq ft ten-year average and compares to 6.2 million sq ft in 2009, the lowest annual figure following the Global Financial Crisis. 25% The city centre and out-of-town markets were affected to Whilst we have seen activity understandably muted during DOWN ON THE 10 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE a similar extent and, in most cities, take-up was severely the course of the year, and a number of requirements impacted by the pandemic. However, activity remained shelved – we are of course in a recessionary environment - CHARLES TOOGOOD robust in Newcastle and Bristol, which fared the best of organisations are giving careful consideration to what they the nine cities. require from their office space. According to Fit for Future, Principal and Managing Director, 55% of occupiers expect their workplace to be redesigned Activity improved as the year progressed, with Q4 National Offices Team to improve productivity, with 98% aware that health take-up amounting to 1.5 million sq ft, 25% down on the and wellbeing is an important strategic driver for their ten-year average but an improvement on the previous workplace. As a result, those occupiers who are able to take quarter and double the amount transacted during Q2, City Centre Out-of-town a longer term view – usually larger companies with larger the spring lockdown. requirements – are re-entering the market with renewed 1,031,735 sq ft 543,119 sq ft During an unprecedented time of uncertainty for the certainty around the type of the space they need to During“ an office market, there were some encouraging signs of encourage better use of their office space in the long term. activity towards the end of the year. We have seen a Nevertheless, in the short term we do expect to see levels number of pre-letting deals, such as 175,000 sq ft to BT UNDER CONSTRUCTION unprecedented time of availability increase, albeit from low levels, as occupiers in Manchester and 121,000 sq ft to Legal and General look to mitigate cost. Total availability across the Big Nine of uncertainty for in Cardiff and on the supply side various speculative 5.6 million sq ft reached the lowest point in 15 years during Q1 2020, schemes across several cities have recently started onsite. the office market, having halved since 2013. 2020, however saw available SKEWED TOWARDS There has been a shift in sectoral activity during 2020. space increase by 17%, with tenant space, a relatively there were some The strong demand that we have seen from central small portion of the market, increasing by 71%. This Government and flexible workspace providers in recent trajectory is likely to continue in the short term, which will encouraging signs years, has understandably been much more subdued. create a wider differentiation in rental tones between the of activity towards Looking forward, the Government now seems committed prime and secondary markets. to relocating 22,000 civil service posts outside London, as There have been a handful of speculative schemes part of the levelling up agenda. The intention is to build the end of the year. start construction in Bristol, Leeds, Manchester and more than the 15 hubs constructed during the first phase, MANCHESTER GLASGOW BRISTOL Newcastle, totalling 900,000 sq ft. This is partly a function We have seen a with no indication that the project will be scaling down. of the Brexit uncertainty of the past few years and the 30% 24% 11% number of pre-letting The flexible workspace environment however is likely reluctance to build speculatively but also a recognition to be more nuanced. Whilst a number of providers are that this will be sought after by occupiers. As an example, deals and on the seeing difficulty, we are seeing increasing evidence of the EQ scheme in Bristol is indicative of what occupiers occupiers looking to incorporate greater flexibility into their will be looking for: well located, high quality space with HEADLINE RENTS AVERAGE supply side various occupational estates – in our Fit for Future report, launched particularly strong environmental credentials and large in late 2020, 85% of companies surveyed expect their amounts of space devoted to health and wellbeing. £31.94 psf speculative schemes estate to become more flexible. In light of this opportunity, Headline rental levels have largely sustained throughout Across all nine cities and against a backdrop of IWG publicly closing offices, in across several cities the pandemic and in some cases increased as landlords Manchester we saw Deloitte take 35,500 sq ft at WeWork have held firm, although some rent-free periods have as well as Hana committing to additional space. have recently started moved out slightly. This is supported by the MSCI monthly index which shows that average rental growth for regional onsite. offices increased by 1% during 2020. Occupier data City Centre Out-of-town TOTAL TAKE UP IN Q4 TOTAL TAKE UP IN Q4 1,031,735 sq ft 22% compared to the ten year quarterly average 543,119 sq ft 30% compared to the ten year quarterly average TAKE UP (SQ FT) TOP FIVE DEALS TAKE UP (SQ FT) TOP FIVE DEALS City Property Occupier Sq ft City Property Occupier Sq ft Birmingham Birmingham Four New One Blythe Bristol Manchester BT 175,683 Bristol Bailey Birmingham Gate, Blythe Lounge 53,882 Cardiff Cardiff Valley Park Interchange 64-68 Finnieston Edinburgh Building, Legal and Edinburgh Glasgow Spire 29,511 Cardiff 121,256 Square, Skypark Glasgow Central General Glasgow Manchester Leeds Square Leeds Trafford House, University Liverpool 123 Albion StepChange Liverpool Manchester 17,191 Leeds 45,893 Southmoor Hospitals Manchester Street Debt Charity Manchester Trust Newcastle Bristol Trinity Quay DAS UK 37,828 Newcastle Call House, Leeds Enfield Street, Undisclosed 15,618 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 0 60,000 120,000 180,000 240,000 Manchester Hanover Deloitte 35,582 LS7 sq ft sq ft Hawthorne, Newcastle Essentra 15,241 Q4 2020 10 year quarterly average Q4 2020 10 year quarterly average Jarrow HEADLINE RENTS (£PSF) HEADLINE RENTS (£PSF) Rent (£) Rent free Net effective Net effective rent (£) Rent (£) Rent (£) Location Location Q4 2020 (mths on 10 yr term) rent*(£) Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2019 Edinburgh 37.00 15.00 33.30 32.40 Birmingham 26.00 25.00 Manchester 38.50 26.00 31.12 30.11 Leeds 24.75 24.75 Glasgow 34.50 15.00 31.05 29.25 Manchester 24.00 24.00 Birmingham 37.00 24.00 30.53 28.46 Bristol 23.50 23.50 Bristol 35.50 21.00 30.18 30.63 Edinburgh 22.50 22.00 Leeds 32.00 24.00 26.40 24.75 Newcastle 16.95 16.95 Newcastle 26.00 18.00 22.75 22.75 Glasgow 16.50 16.50 Cardiff 25.00 18.00 21.88 21.88 Cardiff 15.50 15.00 Liverpool 22.00 24.00 18.15 17.74 Liverpool 14.00 14.00 Average 31.94 20.56 27.26 26.44 Average 20.41 20.19 *including rent free period less three month fit-out. Occupier charts ANNUAL TAKE UP QUARTERLY TAKE-UP TAKE-UP BY KEY SECTORS 12M 3.5M 18 16 3M 10M 14 2.5M 12 8M 10 % 2M 8 6 6M 1.5M Sq ft Sq Ft 4 4M 1M 2 0 0.5M 2M 0 Banks Property InsuranceTelecoms Education EngineeringHealthcareCentral gov 0 IT & software Legal services Business services Retail and leisure 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020 Flexible workspace Out-of-Town City Centre Ten year average Out-of-Town City Centre Ten year quarterly average 2020 Five years HEADLINE RENTS CC AND OOT TAKE-UP BIG NINE AVAILABILITY & VACANCY RATE 35 20M 12 2,000 18M 11 30 16M 10 1,600 25 14M 8 1,200 12M 7 ) 20 % ( 10M 6 e t £ psf a r 15 '000 Sq ft 800 8M 5 y c n 6M 4 a 10 400 c a 4M 2 V Availability (Sq ft) 5 0 2M 1 0 0 0 Bristol Leeds Cardiff Glasgow Liverpool Newcastle Edinburgh Manchester Q4 2013Q2 2014Q4 2014Q2 2015Q4 2015Q2 2016Q4 2016Q2 2017Q4 2017Q2 2018Q4 2018Q2 2019Q4 2019Q2 2020Q4 2020 Birmingham 2009 2010Q3 2011Q2 2011Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2015Q4 2016Q3 2017Q2 2017Q1 2018Q4 2019Q3 2020Q2 2020Q1 Q4 Headline rents Net effective rents 2020 10 year average Availability Vacancy rate Investment market in brief Q4 VOLUMES PROVIDE THE BUSIEST QUARTER OF THE YEAR TOTAL FOR Q4 Investment volumes across the Big Nine cities totalled £580 million during the final quarter of 2020, 2% up on the ten-year average and the busiest quarter of the year. However, with slower activity in the previous two £580 million quarters, the total for 2020 amounted to £1,501 billion, down 34% on the ten-year average. 2% Activity in Q4 provided a positive statement for the We expect sentiment to remain subdued for the first office market, as there were four large deals between quarter of 2021 while tough lockdown restrictions UP ON THE 10 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE £85 million and £120 million. These were led by two remain, but once these are eased, we anticipate MARK WILLIAMS in Manchester: Helical sold the Powerhouse Portfolio, continued investment activity for prime city centre comprising three Manchester office assets for £119 offices and in some well-located out-of-town Principal and Managing Director, VOLUMES BY CITY million and Warrington Borough Council forward developments where there are strong levels of Regional Investment funded BT’s new super Hub at 4 New Bailey for £112 occupational demand.
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