Nuclear Energy, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament: Briefing Notes for the 2010 NPT Review Conference
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Nuclear Energy, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament: Briefing Notes for the 2010 NPT Review Conference François Carrel-Billiard and Christine Wing APRIL 2010 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE Cover Photo: Atoms for Peace, 1957 ABOUT THE AUTHORS US Postage Stamp. © Ray Roper/Istockphoto. FRANÇOIS CARREL-BILLIARD is Managing Director of the International Peace Institute (IPI) and also leads a project The views expressed in this paper on weapons of mass destruction within IPI's flagship represent those of the authors and Coping with Crisis program. Prior to joining IPI in 2007, he not necessarily those of roundtable served in Paris as an adviser to the French Foreign Minister, participants, nor those of IPI. IPI welcomes consideration of a wide and as a Deputy Director for Strategic Affairs at the range of perspectives in the pursuit Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Previously, Mr. Carrel-Billiard of a well-informed debate on critical was posted in Moscow, New York, and Brussels. He policies and issues in international graduated from the École Nationale d'Administration in affairs. Paris, and he also holds a law degree from the Université Paris II and an MA from the Institut d' Études Politiques de IPI Publications Adam Lupel, Editor Paris. Ellie B. Hearne, Publications Officer CHRISTINE WING is Senior Research Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University and a Suggested Citation François Carrel-Billiard and Christine Senior Adviser to IPI. She has worked on disarmament and Wing, “Nuclear Energy, Nonpro- nonproliferation issues since the early 1980s, including as a liferation, and Disarmament: program officer at the Ford Foundation, and as a coordi - Briefing Notes for the 2010 NPT nator of the Disarmament Program at the American Review Conference,” New York: Friends Service Committee. She holds a PhD in interna - International Peace Institute, April tional security studies from the Woodrow Wilson School at 2010. Princeton University. © by International Peace Institute, 2010 All Rights Reserved ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank for their input and insight www.ipinst.org the participants in the series of roundtable meetings on NPT issues held at IPI between June 2009 and March 2010: Witjaksono Adji, Hossam Aly, Liseth Ancidey, Nosizwe Lise Baqwa, Dainius Baublys, Serge Bavaud, Mohammed Belaoura, Rodolfo Benítez Versón, Mónica Bolaños-Pérez, Siriporn Chaimongkol, Xavier Chatel, Carlos Perez, Axel Cruau, Ine Declerck, Swen Dornig, Mohamed Elghitany, Michael Gordon, Miguel Graça, Torbjørn Graff Hugo, María Perla Flores, Raphael Hermoso, Kyra Hild, Anna Hjartardottir, Jim Kelly, Daniel Krull, Niclas Kvarnström, Florian Laudi, Boniface Lezona, Thomas Markram, Maria Josefina Martinez Gramuglia, William Menold, Enrique Ochoa, Johann Paschalis, Tetyana Pokhval'ona, Pia Poroli, John Erik Prydz, Febrian Ruddyard, Randy Rydell, Monica Sánchez, Gustavo Senechal, Daniel Simanjuntak, Albert Sitnikov, Daniel Shepherd, Michael Spies, Lachezara Stoeva, Aidas Sunelaitis, Jonathan Tow, Roland Tricot, Chantale Walker, Xu Jian, Youn Jong Kwon, Gustavo Zlauvinen, and Sarah de Zoeten. IPI owes a debt of gratitude to all of its donors. For this project, in particular, IPI is grateful to the governments of Finland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. CONTENTS Foreword, Edward C. Luck . iii Acronyms . v Introduction . 1 Nuclear Power and the NPT . 4 BACKGROUND: THE ANTICIPATED EXPANSION IN NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTED GROWTH IN NUCLEAR POWER AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR PROLIFERATION NUCLEAR POWER AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle . 8 THE ISSUE BACKGROUND: THE SUPPLY OF NUCLEAR FUEL PROPOSALS FOR FUEL ASSURANCES THE SITUATION TODAY FUEL ASSURANCES AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE Nuclear Disarmament . 13 STATE OF PLAY WHAT ARE THE SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES? WHAT ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR, AND OBSTACLES TO, PROGRESS? DO WE HAVE THE RIGHT FRAMEWORKS? DISARMAMENT AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones . 24 BACKGROUND KEY ISSUES NWFZ s AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE North Korea and the NPT . 28 EARLY PROGRAM HISTORY IAEA INSPECTIONS (1992-1994) THE AGREED FRAMEWORK (1994-2002) THE SIX-PARTY TALKS (SINCE 2003) THE DPRK AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE Iran and the NPT . 33 DEVELOPMENT OF A CLANDESTINE NUCLEAR PROGRAM (MID-1980 s-2002) INITIAL ATTEMPTS TO FIND A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION (2003-2006) THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND THE DUAL-TRACK APPROACH (SINCE 2006) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IRAN AND THE NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE Annexes . 40 ANNEX I: TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS ANNEX II: PAST REVIEW CONFERENCE DOCUMENTS ON NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT ANNEX III: TABLES OF NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREE ZONES iii Foreword Four decades ago, on March 5, 1970, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) entered into force. As foreshadowed in Article VIII, paragraph 3, the states party to the treaty have met every five years “to review the operations of the Treaty with a view to assuring that the purposes of the Preamble and the provisions of the Treaty are being realized.” These periodic check-ups, however, have been anything but routine. Sometimes it has been impossible to agree on an agenda, much less to produce agreed results. Yet, in what has become a classic demonstration of the power of faith over experience, the 189 states party to the treaty will gather in May 2010 for the eighth time—this round at United Nations headquarters in New York City—to take stock and to look ahead with some combination of apprehension and modest expectation. Though one of the world’s more widely subscribed security conventions, the NPT has also proved to be one of the more controversial. Its provisions define the core bargain between those few countries that have long admitted to having nuclear weapons and the many that have declared that they have no intention of acquiring them. All have pledged not to help others to do so. On the one hand, it is an inherently asymmetrical bargain among states with diverse interests and capacities. Different capitals are bound to have divergent perceptions of who is or is not living up to their end of the bargain, or of priorities, timing, and trade-offs among its planks. On the other hand, only one state party—North Korea—has ever sought to exercise its right of withdrawal under the provisions of Article X, paragraph 1, of the treaty. This record suggests that the treaty regime, whatever its shortcomings, has served the common security interests of its state parties, whether large or small, nuclear or non-nuclear, well enough over four quite turbulent decades to persuade them to keep sustaining the enterprise. Each of the eight Review Conferences, according to contemporary pundits, has come at a pivotal moment in the evolution of efforts to curb both horizontal and vertical proliferation. Each time, the stakes were high, the threats of further proliferation all too real. Hyperbole aside, the commentators were right each time to stress the fragility of the NPT regime, as it has had a contested existence for much of its lifetime. It has faced dissension within its ranks and acute challenges from three hold-outs—India, Israel, and Pakistan—that have refused to join precisely because they wanted to be free to acquire nuclear weapons if they deemed that their security required it. There is, moreover, the ongoing struggle to try to keep North Korea within the NPT regime and Iran without nuclear weapons. This time, the stakes—whether measured in terms of downside risk or upside potential—are even higher than usual. The danger of nonstate actors, such as transnational criminal or terrorist networks, gaining possession of nuclear materials or technology has moved from a back burner to a front burner in terms of high-level political attention. President Barack Obama’s convening of the first Nuclear Security Summit in April 2010, a month before the NPT review, testified to the urgent nexus among issues of nuclear security, safety, disarmament, and proliferation. The pledges made there by a number of countries to secure nuclear facilities and reduce stockpiles of nuclear materials demonstrated the potential of such broad-based summits for spurring parallel action, as well as setting the bar higher for the Review Conference. The conclusion of the long-awaited Russian-American New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), also in the month preceding the Review Conference, underscored the need to maintain momentum on both sides of the NPT bargain. Though these steps appear modest compared to the magnitude of the nuclear challenge, they may encourage the states party to the treaty to look forward instead of backward at the review and to go beyond the kind of small thinking and defensive finger-pointing that has too often dominated these events in the past. The review comes, as well, at a time when environmental, financial, and political factors are propelling a fresh look at civilian nuclear power as a source of energy and economic development in many places. Though talk of a “nuclear renaissance” may be overblown, some delegates are sure to remind others of their Article IV obliga - tion “to facilitate…the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials, and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.” The proliferation of power and research reactors, however, iv is bound to compound concerns about its implications for less benign forms of proliferation, as well as for security and safety. These concerns, in turn, have spurred further consideration of ways to bolster the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards regime, and, further down the road, of the possibility of developing multilateral arrangements for handling the nuclear-fuel cycle. As always, global aspirations and standards can run into speed bumps or even detours when applied to the regions with the most acute problems and the least promising politics. The declaration of a nuclear-weapon-free zone, for instance, has served as a confidence-building measure in many regions, but not yet in the Middle East, where, like so many other things, it remains a bone of contention.