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Definition and Implementation of Scenarios and Targets For Green Week 2012 4.3 « Seting targets for efficient and sustainable water use » Definition and implementation of scenarios and targets for Sustainable Water Resource Management at River Basin Scale by Joaquin Andreu (Universitat Politecnica de Valencia – Spain) [email protected] SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT(S) -General concept: A sustainable society is a society that “meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs, in which each human being has the opportunity to develop itself in freedom, within a well-balanced society and in harmony with its surroundings” (UN 1987). -Simple concept: “Improving the quality of life of humans while living within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems” (Van de Kerk and Manuel 2008;IUCN, UNEP and WWF 1991). -Sust. Water Resources Systems: “those systems designed and -managed to contribute fully to the objectives of society, now and in the future, while maintaining their ecological, environmental and hydrological integrity.” (Loucks, 1997). SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT(S) -Intuitively easy to conceive. But -Practically difficult to define and assess (measure) -Many attempts by institutions & programs - Levels of sustainablility: -General -Sectorial: -Water. Space scales: -Basin -WRS -Element (e.g., city) - Does aggregation of sistainable elements ensure sustainability of upper levels? And vice-versa. INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: GUIDELINES AND METHODOLOGIES (CSD, 1995): social, environmental, economic and ionstitutional indicators, among them: THEORETICAL APPROACHES 1. Sustainability indicator (Sandoval-Solis et al., 2011): -From probabilistic performance criteria (e.g., reliability, resilience, vulnerability, max. Deficit, …) -Define Sustainability Index as: THEORETICAL APPROACHES 1. Sustainability indicator (Sandoval-Solis et al., 2011): -SI for: user, environment, group, ¿why not basin? -Compute SI for future scenarios using models (WEAP) in Rio Grande: THEORETICAL APPROACHES 1. Sustainability indicator (Sandoval-Solis et al., 2011): -Useful for comparison between alternatives, BUT: -Not explicit representation of trade-offs -No targets (or minimum acceptable values) -Not easily understood by stakeholders. (not clear physical meaning) -Subjectivity in weightings, and environmental “demands” THEORETICAL APPROACHES 2. Sustainability of Urban Water Cycle (van Leeuwen et al., 2012): -Propose 24 indicators grouped in Water Security, Water Quality, Drinking water, Sanitation, Infrastructures, Climate Robustness, Biodiversity, and Governance -Results are shown for a given situation: -Very intuitive picture -Might be easy to obtain for cities, but not so for basins or WR Systems. THEORETICAL APPROACHES Other: 3. Water footprint 4. Water Ecosystem Services 5. Water Accounting What is needed: -Avoid subjectivities -Show explicitly the trade-offs -Be easy to obtain by means of models or DSS -Broadly accepted or in a methodological guide. -Usefull for participatory decision making PRACTICAL EXAMPLES (SPANISH BASINS) WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX ≈1 Aquifer over-exploitation / Spain Pumping/recharge ratio in hydrogeological units Source: Libro Blanco del Agua (MIMA, 1998) 12 EUROPEAN WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE (WFD) Article 5: Environmental Analysis Surface water bodies in risk Groundwater bodies in risk • PERFORMANCE CRITERIA RELATED TO DEMAND SATISFACTION • Impossible to satisty 100% demand 100% of time • Concept of FAILURE VARIABLES RELATED TO FAILURE • Failure: When supply < demand – Intensity, duration, magnitude • Reliability: Probability of satisfactory supply (not in failure). • Risk es la probability of faiulre. • Resiliency: Average probability of system recovering when in failure. (Related to the inverse of time to get back to satisfaction situation after a failure). • Vulnerability: Expected value of the deficits (or of the costs associated) (average deficit or average cost). PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) Criterio Tipo Mensual Fallo en un mes: déficit es mayor que A% (umbral) de la demanda mensual æ nº fallos ö Garantía Mensual (Gm): G = ç1 - ÷ *100 è nº mesestotales ø Criterio Tipo Anual: Fallo en un año: déficit en un mes mayor que B% (umbral) de la demanda mensual o el déficit total anual es mayor que C% (umbral)de la demanda anual æ nº fallos ö Garantía Anual (Ga): G = ç1 - ÷ *100 è nº añostotales ø Valores habituales: - B=25 y permitir un solo mes de fallo - Ga= 95% abastecimiento, 85% riegos PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) • The reliability criteria based on failure frequency does not allow to capture: – Magnitude of the failures (e.g., catastrophic) – Duration of failure • Criteria based on the deficit that can be assumed for given time periods. PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) • Deficit indexes: – Max. Monthly def. – Máx. def. in two consecutive months – Probability (or frequency) estimation for different magnitudesof deficit (pdf of deficits). PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) Spanish IPH-2008 -Methodological guide for sustainable integrated WRS `planning & management -Each element (water body, demand, …) must be sustainable -The whole WRS must be sustainable -Sets targets for performance criteria -Sets procedures for obtaining trade-offs between objectives -Sets participatory processes PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) Spanish IPH-2008 Urban demands: DEF1month <= 10% DEM1month DEF10years <= 8% DEMannual Agric. demands: DEF1year <= 50% DEMannual DEF2years <= 75% DEMannual DEF10years <= 100% DEMannual PRACTICAL CRITERIA (IN MODELS AND ANALYSIS) • FACTORS that AFFECT THE VALUES OF THE INDICATORS AND DEMAND SATISFACTION: – Hydrology (cantidad, varianza, …) – Ratio resources/demands – Infraestructures (regulación, conectividad, acuíferos, …) – MANAGEMENT OF THE W.R. SYSTEM (Operatin rules) • Must be OPTIMAL (OPTIMIZACIÓN y/o SIMULACIÓN) ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AT SPANISH LAW LAW 46/1999: environmental flows are “restricction” over all the other demands except human supply. IPH-2008. - Objective of this decret is to establish criteria to develop Water Basin Plans (as a requirement of the European Water Framework Directive). - It establishes methods to estimate environmental flows. - Also it requires to estimate the effect of environmental flows application over the other uses of the system. IPH-2008. METHODS TO ESTIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS STATISTICAL HABITAT SIMULATION APPROACHES Curva SPU 600 100% 500 400 80% 300 200 50% 100 30 0 % 0 5 8 3 14 17 20 11 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.4 6.5 8.5 9.5 0.3 4.2 Q (m3/s) ¿HOW TO DEFINE NEW ¿HOW TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS OF NEW ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS WITHIN THE RANGE? OVER THE SYSTEM? JUST DO IT EXPERTISE JUDGEMENT DECISSION SUPPORT SYSTEM (MODELS) SPAIN l Water adm. at basin scale since 1927: River Basin Agencies (Authorities) across administrative boundaries l Users represented at the Agencies Decision Boards: active participation CANTABRIA Valencia PRINCIPADO DE ASTURIAS PAIS GALICIA VASCO NAVARRA LA RIOJA CATALUÑA CASTILLA-LEON ARAGON MADRID CASTILLA-LA MANCHA EXTREMADURA VALENCIA BALEARES MURCIA Júcar ANDALUCIA CEUTA MELILLA CANARIAS Map of River Basin Authorities Map of adminitrative autonomous regions Júcar River Basin Authority (CHJ) Surface (km2) 43.000 Permanent population 4.792.528 Equivalent population due to 367.322 tourism Irrigation surface (ha) 347.275 Water demand (hm3/year) 3.172 (Hm3/year = Gigaliters/year) CANTABRIA PRINCIPADO DE ASTURIAS PAIS Total demand by uses GALICIA VASCO NAVARRA 0% Irrigation 1% LA RIOJA Urban supply CATALUÑA CASTILLA-LEON ARAGON 3% Industrial supply 17% Cattle HALF OF THE AREAMADRID IS SEMIARID Recreation +HIGHEST Total Demand by source of water CASTILLA-LA MANCHA EXTREMADURA VALENCIA 2% VARIABILITY IN BALEARES 0% Surface water EUROPE 79% 4% MURCIA Júcar ANDALUCIA (IN SPACE AND Groundwater 42% TIME) Pdia/Paño (%) Direct WasteWater Reuse CEUTA Desalination 52% MELILLA CANARIAS Imports (MCT) Nattura regime Demand / Nattura System Demand 2015 resourcel regime resource Cenia- Maestrazgo 117 312 0,38 Mijares 300 531 0,56 • Aridity (climate) Palancia 101 117 0,87 Turia 666 496 1,34 • Scarcity (Human needs) Júcar 1.546 1.671 0,93 Serpis 125 190 0,66 • Droughts (Fhigh Marina Alta 94 222 0,42 hydrological Marina Baja 75 74 1,01 Vinalopó - • Variability) Alacantí 256 97 2,64 2800 Total DHJ 3.280 3.711 0,88 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 hm3 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 año 1958/59 1974/75 1976/77 1954/55 1956/57 1960/61 1962/63 1964/65 1966/67 1968/69 1970/71 1972/73 1978/79 1980/81 1982/83 1984/85 1986/87 1992/93 1940/41 1942/43 1944/45 1946/47 1948/49 1950/51 1952/53 1988/89 1990/91 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 Annual values Avegare contribution of historical Natural Regime Average since 1980 in Natural Regime In Spanish River Basin Plans for WFD, water licenses and ecological flows are key issues Need for tools and models • Process of making good decisions: information must be managed and analyzed about – feasible alternatives, – their impact on the multiple objectives, – the tradeoffs among them, as well as – risks associated with them. • To elaborate and analyze such information, sound science, technology, and expertise have to be involved. • Tools for data management and analysis, and models are needed to cope with the complexity, the basin scale scope, and the huge amount of information, alternatives, and scenarios. Need for Decision Support Systems (DSS) • We agree that the political process is important, but insist that debates must be on the basis
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