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Applications of Statistical and Heuristic Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Assessments

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Applications of Statistical and Heuristic Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Assessments APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICAL AND HEURISTIC METHODS FOR LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENTS A case study in Wadas Lintang Sub District, Wonosobo Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia Thesis submitted to the Graduated School, Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University and International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Joint Education Program between Gadjah Mada University (GMU)-Yogyakarta-Indonesia and International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)- Enschede-The Netherlands,on Geo-Information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management by: Bonaventura Firman Dwi Wahono (22624-AES) 08/276588/PMU/05636 SUPERVISOR : Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko M.Sc.(GMU) Dr. C.J. van Westen (ITC) GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION AND EARTH OBSERVATION 2010 APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICAL AND HEURISTIC METHODS FOR LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENTS A case study in Wadas Lintang Sub District, Wonosobo Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia By: Bonaventura Firman Dwi Wahono (22624-AES) 08/276588/PMU/05636 Has been approved in Yogyakarta ...February 2010 By Team of Supervisors: Chairman: . External Examiner: . Supervisor I: Supervisor II Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko, M.Sc Dr. C.J. van Westen Certified by: Program Director of Geo-Information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management Graduate School Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University Dr. H.A Sudibyakto, M.S. DEDICATED TO MY LOVELY FAMILY I certify that although I may have conferred with others in preparing for this assignment, and drawn upon a range of sources cited in this work, the content of this thesis report is my original work. Signed ……………………. DISCLAIMER This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the Double Degree International Program of Geo-information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management, a Joint Education Program of Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, the Netherlands and Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia. All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutes. ABSTRACT One of the basic activities in landslide mitigation is to generate a landslide susceptibility map which is the main objective of this research. Using appropriate method becomes the key to determine the areas prone to landslide. There are three applied methods for assessing the landslide susceptibility in Wadas Lintang sub district such as bivariate statistical analysis, multivariate statistical analysis and combination between bivariate and pair wise comparison method. The result showed that there are 71 landslide sites which are categorized into two types of landslide; rotational slides and translational slides. From the rainfall analysis, temporal probability of landslides can be formulated as Y = 0.0334X – 4.0127, where x is daily rainfall. Based on laboratory investigation, the soil textures in research area were dominated with a high percentage of clay fractions. The investigation also showed that the soil of research area can be categorized as organic clay and very plastic silt which is harmful for sliding in rainy season. The simple formulas were used to extract magnitude of landslide which is ranging from 1.848 to 2.565. Building the susceptibility map for rotational slides and translational slides should be separated because of their different characteristics. The comparison between three methods for assessing landslide susceptibility proofs that multivariate statistical analysis gives the best estimation of the location of future rotational slides as well as translational slides. The susceptible areas to landslide are determined by a combination of several factors which depend on the landslide types. Rotational slides occur on steep slopes from 15 – 30%, in areas covered by shifting cultivation and shrubs and underlain by grained sandstone, breccia and andesite. Most landslides of translational slides occur on landuse types of settlement and paddy field and in geological unit such as breccia, basalt and andesite. Translational slides dominantly occurred in flat - gentle slope from 0 to 8%. Based on the best resulted susceptibility map, the high susceptible area of rotational slides comprise 36.50% of the whole research area in which Samogede, Ngalian, Trimulyo, Lancar and Gumelar become the most susceptible villages. The high susceptible area prone to translational slides was estimated equal to 14.35% of research area at which Kaligowong, Tirip, Sumber Rejo, Wadas Lintang, and Plunjaran appear to be the most susceptible villages. Key words: Landslide, susceptibility, statistical, bivariate, multivariate, pair-wise . ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research had been supported by contributions of many people and institutions. Supports had come in many different ways and each input helped to bring this research to be completed. Herewith I would like to thank all who have helped me in this effort and particularly mention of person and institution whose contribution has been important. First I thank to Jesus Christ whom supported me by his grace and blessing. I would like to express my high gratitude to my GMU supervisor, Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko, M.Sc, for his valuable guidance, encouragements and discussions during this susceptible period. This research would not been carried out and written without his attentive support. I would also like to give my sincere gratitude to Dr. C.J van Westen , my ITC supervisor, for his remarks, improvements and comments during writing proposal until the final submission. I also appreciate to all lecturer and staff members both in GMU and ITC, for their support and guidance, especially to Dr. Sudibyakto, Dr. Junun Sartohadi, Dr. Aris Marfai, Drs. Robert Voskuil, Dr. Michiel Damen, Prof.Dr.Victor Jetten, Dr. David G. Rossiter, Drs. Nanette C. Kingma, mbak Tuti, mbak Indri, mbak Win and mas Wawan. I appreciate also to Mr. Mauro Rossi (CNR IRPI) and Saibal Gosh (PhD student of ITC) for giving the scripts and guidance of multivariate statistical analysis. I wish to convey my acknowledgement for BAPPENAS, Netherlands Fellowship Programme- NESO (NEC) and local government of South Sumatra Province for giving me scholarship and financial support to continue my post graduate programme. Thanks also to my previous bosses, Dr. Doddy Supriadi, ibu Sri Hastuti, bapak Zulfikhar and mbak Neneng, for giving the opportunity to continue my study. This research had also been done by permission given by local governments of Wonosobo regency and Wadas Lintang sub district. Thank for the kindness of all the chiefs in each authority’s level. Thanks to all of my classmates for making a friendly atmosphere and sharing all their scientific abilities. This condition kept me to stay in Jogja. Thanks to Emba Tampang Allo for his critical discussion and to Fetty Febrianti for her word’s editing in my thesis. I owe a lot to my brother’s family, Peyek and mbak Tita, for giving the facilities and comfortable condition during I stay in Jogja and to my little Ale for her strengthen smiles. My sincere gratitude is also given to my parents and my parents in law for their supporting and keeping my family during I continue my study and for my siblings and brothers, Sesilia, Sari, Chepy and Bram who gave a comfortable condition to my family. The last is special and deeply thank to my lovely family, my beloved wife, Agrestiwa Perbawani and my children, Pascal Rangga Prasetya and Felicia Maharani. This research is mainly dedicated for you. Jogjakarta, January 2010 Bonaventura Firman D. Wahono iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER... ..........................................................................................................................i ABSTRACT ...... ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT......................................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ...........................................................................................................iv LIST OF TABLE........................................................................................................................vi LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................................. vii CHAPTER 1......INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................1 1.1 Background............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Problem Statement................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Objectives.............................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Research Questions................................................................................................ 3 1.5 Recent studies........................................................................................................ 4 CHAPTER 2......LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................................6 2.1. Types of Landslides............................................................................................... 6 2.1.1. Falls ..............................................................................................................
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