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Poaceae) in Japan to Project Potential Habitats Under 1.5°C–4.0°C Global Warming

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Poaceae) in Japan to Project Potential Habitats Under 1.5°C–4.0°C Global Warming Received: 7 February 2017 | Revised: 31 July 2017 | Accepted: 13 September 2017 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3471 ORIGINAL RESEARCH Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C–4.0°C global warming Kohei Takenaka Takano1,2,3 | Kenshi Hibino4,5,6 | Ayaka Numata1 | Michio Oguro1,2 | Masahiro Aiba1 | Hideo Shiogama7 | Izuru Takayabu5 | Tohru Nakashizuka1,8 1Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan Abstract 2Forestry and Forest Products Research Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan’s ecosys- Institute, Tsukuba, Japan tems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated 3Nagano Environmental Conservation by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo indus- Research Institute, Nagano, Japan 4University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan tries. We examined past (1975–1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic 5Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather Japan stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 6 Institute of Industrial Science, University of sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three dec- Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 7National Institute for Environmental Studies, ades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on Tsukuba, Japan bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we re- 8 Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, produced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver op- Kyoto, Japan erating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution Correspondence has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, Kohei T. Takano, Nagano Environmental Conservation Research Institute, Nagano, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the po- Japan. tential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases Email: [email protected] (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habi- Funding information tats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI Program), Social current climate (1980–2000) to 46%–48%, 51%–54%, 61%–67%, and 77%–83% Implementation Program on Climate Change under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), and GRENE- ei program by the Ministry of Education, risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology- times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation Japan (MEXT); Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-15-2 and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in pre- Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and dicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan. Ecosystem Services (PANCES)) of the Ministry of the Environment-Japan, (MOE); JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP17H03835. KEYWORDS bioclimatic envelope modeling, invasive plants, non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM), RCP8.5 scenario, species distribution modeling, The Paris Agreement This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 9848 | www.ecolevol.org Ecology and Evolution. 2017;7:9848–9859. TAKANO ET AL. | 9849 1 | INTRODUCTION Onozawa, & Otsuki, 2010; Fukushima, Usui, Ogawa, & Tokuchi, 2015; Shinohara & Otsuki, 2015), damage farmlands and artificial Climate change has caused geographical distribution shifts among forests (Arao, Kondo, & Honma, 2003), as well as increase the risk of many plants (e.g., Lenoir & Svenning, 2015; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; sediment disasters (Hiura, Arikawa, & Bahadur, 2004). Global warm- Walther et al., 2007), including invasive species (Bradley, Blumenthal, ing will exacerbate these dangers by facilitating distribution shifts of Wilcove, & Ziska, 2010), thus threatening numerous ecosystems bamboo forests to new areas (Song et al., 2013; Zhang, Liu, Sun, & (WWF, 2016). For example, Acacia nilotica (L.) Delile (Fabaceae) has Wang, 2011). become highly invasive in several parts of the world, and global climate Historically, Japanese people have mainly introduced and used change is likely to increase markedly the plant’s potential distribution two exotic bamboos (Poaceae), moso (Phyllostachys edulis (Carrière) in Australia (Kriticos, Sutherst, Brown, Adkins, & Maywald, 2003). Houzeau de Lehaie) and madake (P. bambusoides Siebold et Zuccarini), Therefore, sustainable ecosystem management requires projections in managed plantations (See Study species Section in Materials and on the risk of invasive species expanding their distribution under cli- Methods and Figure 1 for details). mate change. Applications include food (mainly for moso), handicraft (mainly Bamboo is an economically important plant, but some species for madake) and building materials, horticulture, and protection of have the potential to become invasive. A highly versatile plant, bam- houses against wind or fire, as well as river- wall reinforcement (e.g., boo is used for food, building materials, horticulture, paper, textiles, Okutomi, 2005b). However, cheaper bamboo imports, heavy labor and charcoal, among numerous other applications (FAO, 2010). Since costs, and the lack of successors to bamboo plantations caused the the 1980s, the bamboo industry has developed rapidly in Asia, while Japanese bamboo industry to decline in the 1970s (Nakashima, 2001). also spreading to Africa and the Americas (FAO, 2007). Bamboo for- Consequently, many bamboo plantations have been abandoned and ests are estimated to cover a total area of 31.5 million ha and account are now left unmanaged, eventually invading the adjacent native veg- for about 0.8% of the total global forest area (FAO, 2010). etation (Nishikawa et al., 2005; Okutomi, Shinoda, & Fukuda, 1996; Bamboo is one of the fastest growing plants on earth (daily growth Suzuki, 2015). rate of 30–120 cm), reaching their final height of 5–25 m in a single, Currently, southern and central Japan are the most affected by in- 2- to 4- month growing season (He, Cui, Zhang, Duan, & Zeng, 2013). vasive bamboos, but anticipated global warming may cause the prob- Bamboo growth can have major implications for conservation and lem to spread north in the coming decades. Potentially serious risks environmental management. For example, some researchers expect also exist in other Asian, African, and Latin American countries with bamboo to play an important role in climate change mitigation through burgeoning bamboo industries. For sustainable management of exotic carbon sequestration (Lobovikov, Schoene, & Lou, 2012; Song et al., bamboo forests and adjacent ecosystems under global warming, we 2011). must understand the growth conditions and how climate change af- Because of their rapid growth rate, however, bamboo plants are fects potential habitats of major bamboo species. highly likely to prevent the growth of other plants and decrease spe- Someya, Takemura, Miyamoto, and Kamada (2010) conducted cies diversity (Chou & Yang, 1982; Larpkern, Moe, & Totland, 2011; the first comprehensive study estimating the distribution probabil- Searashi, Maru, Otori, & Nishii, 1989; Yamaguchi & Inoue, 2004; but ity of exotic bamboo (Phyllostachys) forests throughout Japan, in re- see Lin et al., 2014). Additionally, the expansion of invasive bam- lation to major environmental variables (i.e., climatic elements, soil boo forests can change terrestrial water and nutrient cycles (Chiwa, type, land- use type, and topography). Their study incorporated GIS FIGURE 1 Natural distribution of the genus Phyllostachus and the range of our study area 9850 | TAKANO ET AL. data of vegetation maps with other ecological data. The best explan- Moso bamboo is the most abundant bamboo species in the world, atory variables were warmth index (Kira, 1945), annual precipitation, extensively distributed in southeast and south Asia (Du et al., 2009). maximum snow depth, soil type, and land- use type. A similar study in Moso bamboo is the most important species in the southern Chinese China (Zhang et al., 2011) also mapped the potential habitats of moso bamboo industry, and moso plantations exceed 3.8 million ha, repre- bamboo using presence and pseudo- absence data, predicting that senting 70% of the bamboo area in China (FAO, 2007). According to the potential distribution of moso bamboo will expand up to 266 km previous studies in China, the primary environmental factors that con- northward and increase 13.9% in area by 2070–2099 under SRES A2 trol moso bamboo distribution and growth are temperature (Xu & Qin, (BCCR- BCM2.0) scenario. 2003), precipitation (annual range: 800–2,000 mm: Xu & Qin, 2003; However, both extrapolating occurrence data from vegetation Zhou, 1991; but see Gu et al., 2010), and soil conditions (sandy soil maps and creating pseudo- absence data
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