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Measuring Poverty in Timor-Leste: Using Census Data to Develop a National Multidimensional Poverty Index

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Measuring Poverty in Timor-Leste: Using Census Data to Develop a National Multidimensional Poverty Index MEASURING POVERTY IN TIMOR-LESTE: USING CENSUS DATA TO DEVELOP A NATIONAL MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX Dan Jendrissek* This paper presents work towards the development of a national Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste. The Global Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste, based on the Demographic and Health Survey, had been calculated previously, but because of sample size limitations, poverty estimates are only reliable for higher levels of administrative units. This paper’s unique contribution is in demonstrating how this hurdle can be overcome by calculating a census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index that allows for robust estimates at lower subnational levels. By using data from the previous two censuses, the study shows a decline in multidimensional poverty across the country, although persistent deprivations remain in some areas. In addition to a discussion on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index, the paper also includes reviews of previous income/consumption-based poverty studies. These survey-based poverty estimates indicate the existence of an “East-West divide” at the highest subnational level, with more households in the western parts of Timor-Leste experiencing poverty than in the eastern parts. The focus of this study is on lower administrative units of the country which do not replicate those findings. The picture emerging is rather one of hard-to-reach areas away from urban centres being most at risk of being left behind. The study contributes to an ever- growing body of research on poverty measures in the context of countries where reliable data at the subnational level are often scarce. The results and applied methodology presented are, therefore, relevant beyond the immediate country context. JEL classification: I32 Keywords: Multidimensional Poverty Index, poverty mapping, Timor-Leste, East Timor, South-East Asia * Dan Jendrissek, Department of Health and Social Care, Windsor House, 42 – 50 Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, United Kingdom (email: [email protected]). The research presented in this paper was made possible through a fellowship grant from the Overseas Development Institute. The Institute had no role in the analytical work carried out, nor in the decision to submit the article for publication. The author would like to thank colleagues working for the United Nations in Timor- Leste for their vital input, especially Nick McTurk whose thoughts on methodological issues were invaluable. Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal Vol. 28, No. 1, June 2021 I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents work carried out to develop a national Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste based on census data. The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative has published the Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste based on the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey (Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, 2019). However, because of the inherent sample size limitations, this analysis is only available at the municipality level, the highest subnational level. As discussed in more detail below, local areas within municipalities can vary widely in terms of people’s income, consumption and overall living standards. Aggregate statistics tend to mask these inequalities. Consequently, to carry out effective spatial targeting of poverty, data at lower administrative levels are needed. The main contribution of this paper is the presentation of this kind of disaggregated data. After contextualizing the research within the wider country context, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index for Timor-Leste is reviewed, and examples are given of countries in the wider region that have made multidimensional poverty measures an essential part of domestic policy design. In addition to the global Multidimensional Poverty Index, income and consumption- based approaches to measuring poverty are reviewed, such as the national and international poverty lines of Timor-Leste and the small area estimations of poverty. Strengths and limitations of these approaches are discussed before indicating how a national, census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index can be used for detailed mapping of a Multidimensional Poverty Index at lower administrative levels. The results of the census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index is then compared with the global, survey-based Multidimensional Poverty Index and the monetary poverty estimates. The present paper also complements the recent Timor-Leste Voluntary National Review (Timor-Leste, 2019) of the country’s progress in realizing the Sustainable Development Goals. While data are available for reporting on the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line (Goal indicator 1.2.1, discussed in more detail below), to date, no indicators exist regarding poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions (Goal indicator 1.2.2). The findings of this study contribute towards closing this data gap. The work presented in this study is not to be understood as a finished product. First, methodological questions remain: as this is the first time a census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index has been calculated, the objective was to stay as close as possible to the global Multidimensional Poverty Index methodology, but not all 2 Measuring poverty in Timor-Leste global indicators could be replicated using census data. Malnourishment information, for example, is not collected in the Timor-Leste census, therefore questions remain on how that poverty indicator should be treated methodologically if the aim is to stay close to the global methodology. Second, the methodology does not yet hold the status of being “official” statistics and is likely to be adjusted in the future according to the wider country context and government priorities. Accordingly, references to “national Multidimensional Poverty Index” are the “suggested” or “proposed” national Multidimensional Poverty Index. Despite these caveats, the work presented constitutes an innovative approach to poverty mapping. It outlines how a national Multidimensional Poverty Index based on census data can produce a more fine-grained picture than one based on survey data, which has not been done in the case of Timor-Leste. In addition, the work shows how a census-based Multidimensional Poverty Index allows for the tracking of poverty levels over time by comparing the 2015 Census with the 2010 Census. In this respect, the work presented here is relevant beyond Asia and the Pacific and can easily be replicated for other low-income countries where similar census data are available. II. COUNTRY CONTEXT To start with, in this section, the research is contextualized in the wider country context. Despite being an oil-exporting country that has made remarkable economic progress over the past decade, Timor-Leste is still one of the poorest countries in the region. Reliable poverty data are, therefore, essential to tackle the many challenges the country is encountering. After almost twenty-five years of Indonesian occupation, the Timorese people voted to restore independence in 1999. Only hours after the referendum, the Indonesian military and militias started a campaign that led to the destruction of 70 to 90 per cent of the country’s infrastructure, including health facilities, schools, water supply, roads and irrigation systems (CAVR, 2013, p. 300; Albrecht and others, 2018, p. 1). After intervention from the International Force East Timor and a handover to the United Nations Transitional Administration in East-Timor in 2000, the country seemed to be preparing for a transition away from the past conflict. However, tensions resurfaced in 2006 when a violent confrontation between the armed forces and police linked to a complex set of political and institutional conflicts (Brady and Timberman, 2006), triggered another extended outbreak of violence for several months. The violence 3 Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal Vol. 28, No. 1, June 2021 led to the displacement of more than 100,000 people and created insecurity, often dividing communities along regional divisions. Another United Nations mission was initiated in August 2006, which lasted until 2012. Since then, the country has largely been at peace, but severe challenges remain (for a more detailed overview of the recent history of Timor-Leste, especially during the United Nations peacebuilding missions, see, for example, Menon (2019)). Timor-Leste ranks 110 out of 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index 2018, scoring 34.2 which was classified as “serious” and bordering on “alarming”. Only Afghanistan, Sudan, Haiti, Yemen, Chad, Zambia, Madagascar, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic ranked lower (Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, 2018). Despite major improvements in the field of access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), more than one third (38 per cent) of all households are still using either an unimproved toilet facility or are practising open defecation. Rural areas are especially at risk of being left behind in this context. A quarter of all rural households in the country are still practising open defecation. While approximately only 5 per cent of households in urban areas have to either defecate in the open or use an unimproved facility, this number balloons to more than 50 per cent in rural areas; every other household, therefore, is very far off from universal access to safely managed sanitation (Timor-Leste, 2019, pp. 80-86). Considerable work has been directed towards rebuilding the educational
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