Here and It Is Known That Bears from Other Subpopulations Use the Area (Durner and Amstrup 1993)

This is a cut and paste compilation of the “details” available via hyperlink from the 2013 PBSG status table http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/status-table.html as one searchable document for archive purposes (Feb 26, 2014) by Susan J. Crockford, www.polarbearscience.com

I’ve added only the totals to the bottom of the first column of the status table on page 2 and a caption to the subpopulation map below. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/population-map.html

The 19 polar bear subpopulations defined by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group for which assessments are provided in the 2013 online table. SB, Southern Beaufort; NB, Northern Beaufort; VM, Viscount Melville; MC, M’Clintock Channel; LS, Lancaster Sound; GB, Gulf of Boothia; NW, Norwegian Bay; KB, Kane Basin; WH, Western Hudson Bay. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/population-map.html

SJC Note: the first column adds up to 18,349 (range 13,071-24,238).

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/arctic-basin.html Arctic Basin (AB)

The population size is unknown. This subpopulation is a geographic catch-all to account for polar bears outside of the polar bear nations’ jurisdictions.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Current 5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year (approx. 12- Estimate / Relative to historic level yr Year Method 95% CI (approx. 25-yr past) period Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual centered on present)

Unknown Data deficient Data deficient

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Not specified.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns Not specified.

Status and delineation

The Arctic Basin area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The Arctic Basin subpopulation (AB) is a geographic catchall to account for polar bears that may be resident in areas of the circumpolar Arctic that are not clearly part of other subpopulations. Polar bears occur at very low densities here and it is known that bears from other subpopulations use the area (Durner and Amstrup 1993). As climate warming continues, it is anticipated that this area may become more important for polar bears as a refuge but a large part of the area is over the deepest waters of the Arctic Ocean and biological productivity is thought to be low. Polar bears with cubs have recently been observed from icebreakers in this region. References

Durner, G. M. and Amstrup, S.C. 1993. Movements of a female polar bear from northern Alaska to Greenland. Arctic 48:338-498

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/baffin-bay.html Baffin Bay (BB)

In 1998, the population size was estimated to be 2,074. A 2004 estimate of less than 1,600 bears was simulated from birth and death rates estimated in 1998 and harvest rates from Greenland and Canada. On-going re-assessment, new estimate expected by the end of 2014.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Relative to historic Current (approx. 12- 5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year Estimate level yr / Year Method (approx. 25-yr period centered on 95% CI Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual past) present)

PVA 1546 2004 (Based on physical capture-recapture Data deficient Declining 156 156 149 152 151 134 690-2402 estimate from 1998)

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Reduced annual ice cover, earlier break-up, later freeze-up.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Harvest, current and projected habitat decline, declining body condition. Population estimate for 2004 is simulated from vital rates measured in 1997. 100% of PVA runs resulted in population decline after 10 years. Sub population is currently being re-assessed using genetic capture-recapture. Status and delineation

The Baffin Bay area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Based on the movements of adult females with satellite radio-collars and recaptures of tagged animals, the Baffin Bay (BB) subpopulation of polar bears is bounded by the North Water Polynya to the north, Greenland to the east and Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada to the west (Taylor and Lee 1995, Taylor et al. 2001, Laidre et al. 2012). A distinct southern boundary at Cape Dyer, Baffin Island, is evident from the movements of tagged bears (Stirling et al. 1980) and from polar bears monitored by satellite telemetry (Taylor et al. 2001). This boundary overlaps with the northern boundary of the Davis Strait subpopulation. A study of microsatellite genetic variation did not reveal any significant differences between polar bears in BB and neighboring Kane Basin, although there was significant genetic variation between polar bears in BB and those in Davis Strait (Paetkau et al. 1999). An initial subpopulation estimate of 300 – 600 bears was based on mark-recapture data collected in spring (1984 – 1989) in which the capture effort was restricted to shore-fast ice and the floe edge off northeast Baffin Island. However, work in the early 1990’s showed that an unknown proportion of the subpopulation is typically offshore during the spring and, therefore, unavailable for capture. A second study (1993 – 1997) was carried out during September and October, when all polar bears were ashore in summer retreat areas on Bylot and Baffin islands (Taylor et al. 2005). Taylor et al. (2005) estimated the number of polar bears in BB at 2,074 ± 226 (SE). The current (2004) abundance estimate is less than 1,600 bears based on simulations using vital rates from the 1993-1997 capture study (Taylor et al. 2005) and pooled Canadian and Greenland harvest records up to 2004. The sub-population is currently undergoing re-assessment and a new abundance estimate is expected by the end of 2014. References

Laidre, K.L., Born, E.W., Gurarie, E., Wiig, O., Dietz, R. and Stern, H. 2012. Females roam while males patrol: divergence in breeding season movements of pack.ice polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Proceedings of the Royal Society B 280: 1-10.

Peacock, E., Laake, J., Laidre, K.L., Born, E.W. and Atkinson, S.N. 2012. The utility of harvest recoveries of marked individuals to assess polar bear (Ursus maritimus) survival. Arctic 65: 391-400.

Paetkau, D., Amstrup, S.C., Born, E.W., Calvert, W., Derocher, A.E., Garner, G.W., Messier, F., Stirling, I., Taylor, M.K., Wiig, Ø., and Strobeck, C. 1999. Genetic structure of the world's polar bear populations. Molecular Ecology 8: 1571-1584.

Rode, K.D., Peacock, E., Taylor, M., Stirling, I., Born, E.W., Laidre, K.L. and Wiig, Ø. 2012. A tale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest, and body condition. Population Ecology 54: 3-18.

Stirling, I., Calvert, W., and Andriashek, D. 1980. Population ecology studies of the polar bear in the area of southeastern Baffin Island. 44 ed. pp. 33 pp.

Taylor, M. and Lee, J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations: A management perspective. Arctic 48: 147-154.

Taylor, M.K., Akeeagok, S., Andriashek, D., Barbour, W., Born, E.W., Calvert, W., Dean Cluff, H., Ferguson, S., Laake, J. Rosing-Asvid, A., Stirling, I., and Messier, F. 2001. Delineating Canadian and Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations by cluster analysis of movements. Can. J. Zool. 79: 690-709.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Born, E.W., Cluff, H.D., Ferguson, S.H., Rosing-Asvid, A., Schweinsburg, R. and Messier, F. 2005. Demography and viability of a hunted population of polar bears. Arctic 58:203-214.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/barents-sea.html Barents Sea (BS)

An aerial line-transect survey was carried out in Russia and Norway in 2004. Population estimate is 2,644. The trend of the subpopulation is unknown.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year Estimate / Relative to historic level Current (approx. 12-yr Year Method 95% CI (approx. 25-yr past) period centered on present) Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual

2644 2004 Distance sampling Data deficient Data deficient NA 1 NA 1 NA 2 1899-3592

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Reduced annual ice cover, earlier break-up, later freeze-up

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

There has been no hunting in the Barents Sea area since 1973. Recent habitat decline has in many years led to late sea ice formation in autumn around some important denning habitat, in such years few females den in these areas. Status and delineation

The Barents Sea area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The size of the Barents Sea (BS) subpopulation was estimated using aerial survey techniques to be approx. 2,650 (95% CI, approx. 1900 – 3600) in August 2004 (Aars et al. 2009). This suggests that earlier estimates based on den counts and ship surveys (Larsen 1972) were too high. This suggestion is further supported by ecological data that indicate the subpopulation grew steadily the first decade after protection from hunting in 1973, and then either continued to grow or stabilized. Studies on individual movement using satellite telemetry and mark-recapture have been conducted in the Svalbard area since the early 1970s (Larsen 1972, 1985, Wiig 1995, Mauritzen et al. 2001, 2002) and continue. Studies show that some polar bears associated with Svalbard are very restricted in their movements but bears from BS, specifically, range widely between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land (Wiig 1995, Mauritzen et al. 2001). Continuing research confirms there is some spatial substructure between bears in northern and southern Svalbard. Some bears of the pelagic-type from northern Svalbard, move north to the Arctic Ocean in the summer, and return to northern Svalbard in the winter, whereas bears from southern Svalbard follow retreating ice to the east. Capture-recapture data also show that movement between northern and southern Svalbard is rare between spring in different years (Lone et al. 2013). Subpopulation boundaries based on satellite telemetry data indicate that BS is a natural subpopulation unit, albeit with some overlap to the east with the Kara Sea subpopulation (Mauritzen et al. 2002). Although overlap between BS and the East Greenland subpopulation may be limited (Born et al. 1997), low levels of genetic structure among all these subpopulations indicates substantial gene flow (Paetkau et al. 1999). To some degree home ranges of bears from the east Greenland subpopulation overlap with those of bears from Svalbard in Fram Strait (Aars et al. 2012). Analyses based on skull morphometrics suggest an exchange of individuals between the two populations (Pertoldi et al. 2012).

References

Aars, J., Marques, T. A., Buckland, S. T., Andersen, M., Belikov, S., Boltunov, A. and Wiig, Ø. 2009. Estimating the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation size. Marine Mammal Science 25: 32-52.

Born, E.W., Laidre, K., Dietz, R., Wiig, Ø., Aars, J. and Andersen, M. 2012. Polar bear Ursus maritimus. Pp 102-115 in: D. Boertmann and A. Mosbech (eds.). The western Greenland Sea: a strategic environmental impact assessment of hydrocarbon activities. Scientific Report from Danish Centre for Environment and Energy No. 22, Aarhus University, 267 pp.

Born, E.W., Wiig, Ø. and Thomassen, J. 1997. Seasonal and annual movements of radiocollared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in northeast Greenland. Journal of Marine Systems 10: 67-77.

Larsen, T. 1972. Air and ship census of polar bears in Svalbard (Spitsbergen). Journal of Wildlife Management 36: 562-570.

Larsen, T. 1985. Polar bear denning and cub production in Svalbard, Norway. Journal of Wildlife Management 49:320-326.

Lone, K., Aars, J. and Ims, R.A. 2013. Site fidelity of Svalbard polar bears revealed by mark-recapture popsitions. Polar Biology 36: 27-39.

Mauritzen, M., Derocher, A. E. and Wiig, Ø. 2001. Space-use strategies of female polar bears in a dynamic sea ice habitat. Canadian Journal of Zoology 79: 1704-1713.

Mauritzen, M., Derocher, A. E., Wiig, Ø., Belikov, S. E., Boltunov, A. N., Hansen, E. and Garner, G. W. 2002. Using satellite telemetry to define swpatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Journal of Applied Ecology 39: 79-90.

Paetkau, D., Amstrup, S.C., Born, E.W., Calvert, W., Derocher, A.E., Garner, G.W., Messier, F., Stirling, I., Taylor, M. K., Wiig, Ø. and Strobeck, C.1999. Genetic structure of the world's polar bear populations. Molecular Ecology 8: 1571-1584.

Pertoldi,C., Sonne, C., Wiig, Ø., Baagøe, H.J., Loeschcke, V. and Bechshøft. T.Ø. 2012. East Greenland and Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus): adaptive variation between two populations using skull morphometrics as an indicator of environmental and genetic differences. Hereditas 149: 99-107.

Wiig, Ø. 1995. Distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Svalbard area. Journal of Zoology 237: 515- 529.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/chukchi-sea.html

Chukchi Sea (CS)

Unknown population size. The subpopulation thought to be declining based on reductions in sea-ice and unknown rates of illegal harvest.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Relative to Current (approx. 12- 5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year Estimate historic level yr / Year Method (approx. 25-yr period centered on 95% CI Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual past) present)

31 (U.S.) + NA 36 (U.S.) + NA 55 (U.S.) + NA Unknown Data deficient Data deficient NA 58 58 (Russia) (Russia) (Russia)

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Decreasing sea ice habitat and forecasts for longer ice-free seasons.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Precise subpopulation size estimates historically not available; coarse estimate of 2,000-5,000 from 1990s based on maternity den surveys in Russia. U.S. capture-recapture research conducted spring 2008- 2011 indicates good body condition and reproduction, suggesting capacity for positive natural growth despite sea ice loss. Observations of low cub production and maternity denning on Wrangel Island 2004- 2010 suggest concern for future reductions in natural growth. Uncertainty in subpopulation size and the number of human-caused removals in Russia results in uncertainty in trend. Observed loss of sea ice habitat is among the largest in the Arctic and the duration of the ice-free season is projected to increase. Potential negative effects of industry and shipping are a concern. Quota of up to 58 bears per year, to be shared between the U.S. and Russia, adopted by U.S.-Russia Polar Bear Commission in 2010. In the U.S., legal subsistence harvest continues as the U.S. works to implement the quota. In Russia, harvest remains illegal and accurate information on human-caused removals is not available, although current levels are thought to be significantly lower than levels in the late 1990s. Status and delineation

The Chukchi Sea area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Cooperative studies between the U.S. and Russia in the late 1980s and early 1990s revealed that polar bears in CS, also known as the Alaska-Chukotka subpopulation, are widely distributed on the pack ice of the northern Bering, Chukchi, and eastern portions of the East Siberian seas (Garner et al. 1990, 1994, 1995). Based upon these telemetry studies, the western boundary of the subpopulation was set near Chaunskaya Bay in northeastern Russia. The eastern boundary was set at Icy Cape, Alaska, which is also the western boundary of the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation (Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Garner et al. 1990, Amstrup et al. 1986, 2004a, 2005). Movement data have been used to determine probabilistic distributions and zones of overlap between CS and Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulations. Updated information on distribution, movement patterns, and habitat use of polar bears in the CS subpopulation has been collected and analyzed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service based on radiocollars deployed on adult females between 2008 and 2013 and is expected to be published within the next year.

Precise estimates of subpopulation size or status based upon capture-recapture or other techniques (e.g., aerial survey) are not available for the CS subpopulation. An approximate estimate of 2,000-5,000 was calculated by S. Belikov in the early 1990s based on the number of maternity dens on Wrangel and Herald Islands and the Chukotkan coast and the assumed proportion of females in the subpopulation (Belikov 1993). The range occupied by the CS subpopulation has experienced substantial sea ice loss in recent years leading to a longer ice-free season and more ice-free days over the biologically productive waters of the continental shelf (Durner et al. 2009; Rode et al. 2013), and sea ice loss is expected to continue (Douglas 2010). A recent study documented stable or improving body condition and reproduction between 1986-1994 and 2008-2011, a period during which substantial sea ice loss occurred, based on polar bears captured in the spring in the U.S. portion of the population’s range (Rode et al. 2013). This suggests the capacity for positive natural population growth assuming that negative effects of sea ice loss would manifest through reduced access to food and lower reproduction. Autumn- based observations on Wrangel Island for the period 2004-2010, however, suggest low cub production and reduced maternity denning (Ovsyanikov 2012). The level of illegal take of polar bears in Russia is currently unknown, although it is thought to be significantly lower than in the 1990s. Combined with legal subsistence harvest in the U.S., the overall level of human-caused removals for the CS

subpopulation may be having a negative effect on the viability of the subpopulation. Uncertainty in the level of human-caused mortality, in conjunction with an unknown population size and growth rate, result in a “Data deficient” designation for the status relative to historic abundance and the current trend of the CS subpopulation. References

Amstrup, S. C., Stirling, I. and Lentfer, J. W. 1986. Past and present status of polar bears in Alaska. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 14: 241-254.

Amstrup, S. C. and DeMaster, D. P. 1988. Polar bear Ursus maritimus. Pp. 39-56 In Lentfer, J. W. (ed.). Selected Marine Mammals of Alaska: Species Accounts with Research and Management Recommendations. Marine Mammal Commission, Washington, DC, USA.

Amstrup, S. C., Durner, G. M., Stirling, I. and McDonald, T. L. 2005. Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea. Arctic 58:247-259.

Amstrup, S. C., McDonald, T. L. and Durner, G. M. 2004. Using satellite radiotelemetry data to delineate and manage wildlife populations. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 32:661-679.

Belikov 1993.

Douglas, D. C. (2010) Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Chukchi and Bering Seas. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1176:32 pp.

Durner, G. M., D. C. Douglas, R. M. Nielson, S. C. Amstrup, T. L. McDonald, I. Stirling, M. Mauritzen, E. W. Born, O. Wiig, E. DeWeaver, M. C. Serreze, S. Belikov, M. Holland, J. A. Maslanik, J. Aars, D. A. Bailey, and A. E. Derocher. (2009) Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecological Monographs 79:25-58.

Garner, G. W., Belikov, S. E., Stishov, M. S. and Arthur, S. M. 1995. Research on polar bears in western Alaska and eastern Russia 1998-92. Pp.155-165 In Wiig,Ø., Born, E. W. and G. W. Garner, (eds.). Polar Bears: Proceedings of the Eleventh Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.

Garner, G. W., Belikov, S. E., Stishov, M. S., Barnes Jr., V. G. and Arthur, S. M. 1994. Dispersal patterns of maternal polar bears from the denning concentration on Wrangel Island. Internat.Conf. Bear Res.Manage. 9:401-410.

Garner, G. W., Knick, S. T. and Douglas, D. C. 1990. Seasonal movements of adult female bears in the Bering and Chukchi seas. Internat.Conf. Bear Res.Manage. 8:219-226.

Ovsyanikov, N.G. 2012. Occurrence of family groups and litters size of polar bears on Wrangel Island in the autumns of 2004-2010 as an indication of population status. In: Marine Mammals of the Holarctic, Suzdal, 2012.

Rode, K.D., E.V. Regehr, D.C. Douglas, G. Durner, A.E. Derocher, G.W. Thiemann, and S. Budge. 2013. Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations. Global Change Biology. Doi: 10.111/gcb.12339. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/davis-strait.html Davis Strait (DS)

Population size of 2,150 estimated using mark-recapture in 2007. Subpopulation likely increased over the last 30 years, and was assessed as stable in 2013.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

2158 2007 Physical capture-recapture Data deficient Stable 96 93 98 106 108 111 1833-2542

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Reduced annual ice cover, earlier break-up, later freeze-up

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Some removals assigned to Davis Strait may be bears from East Greenland that have walked around the southern coast of Greenland. Low reproductive and recruitment rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions. Status and delineation

The Davis Strait area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Based on the recapture or harvest of previously tagged animals and of adult females with satellite collars, the Davis Strait (DS) polar bear subpopulation occurs in the Labrador Sea, eastern Hudson Strait, Davis Strait south of Cape Dyer, and along an as yet undetermined portion of south-west Greenland (Stirling et al. 1980, Stirling and Kiliaan 1980, Taylor and Lee 1995, Taylor et al. 2001). A genetic study of polar bears (Paetkau et al. 1999) indicated significant differences between bears from southern DS and both Baffin Bay and Foxe Basin; Crompton et al. (2008) found that individuals from northern portions of DS and those from Foxe Basin share a high degree of ancestry. The initial subpopulation estimate of 900 bears for DS (Stirling et al. 1980, Stirling and Kiliaan 1980) was based on a subjective correction from the original mark-recapture calculation of 726 bears, which was felt to be too low because of possible bias in the sampling. In 1993, the estimate was again increased to 1,400 bears and to 1,650 in 2005. These increases were to account for the bias as a result of springtime sampling, the fact that the existing harvest appeared to be sustainable and not having negative effects on the age structure, and TEK which suggested that more bears were being seen over the last 20 years. The most recent inventory of this subpopulation was completed in 2007 and the subpopulation estimate was 2,158 (95% CI: 1,833–2,542) (Peacock et al. 2013) and the population has been assessed as stable. Polar bear survival in Davis Strait varied with time and geography, and was related to factors that included changes in sea ice habitat and prey abundance, such as increases of harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) numbers (Peacock et al. 2013). It was suggested that the observed lowered reproductive rates and declines in body condition of polar bears in Davis Strait were likely a result of habitat changes and/or polar bear density (Peacock et al. 2013, Rode et al. 2012). References

Crompton, A.E., Obbard, M.E., Petersen, S.D., and Wilson, P.J. 2008. Population genetic structure in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada: Implications of future climate change. Biological Conservation 141: 2528-2539.

Peacock, E., Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., and Stirling, I. 2013. Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland. Journal of Wildlife Management 77: 463-476.

Stirling, I., Calvert, W., and Andriashek, D. 1980. Population ecology studies of the polar bear in the area of southeastern Baffin Island. 44 ed. pp. 33 pp.

Stirling, I. and Kiliaan, H.P.L. 1980. Population ecology studies of the polar bear in northern Labrador. 42 ed. pp. 21 pp.

Taylor, M. and Lee, J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations: A management perspective. Arctic 48: 147-154.

Unknown population size and trend.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Unknown PVA Data deficient Data deficient 60 59 64 64 64 60

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Reduced ice cover, earlier break-up, later freeze-up.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Current and projected habitat decline, no abundance estimate or growth rate. No subpopulation inventories have ever been conducted. Plans to begin assessment of this sub-population starting in 2014. Status and delineation

The East Greenland area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Although various studies have indicated that more or less resident groups of bears may occur within the range of polar bears in East Greenland (EG; Born 1995, Dietz et al. 2000, Sandell et al. 2001), the EG polar bears are thought to constitute a single subpopulation with only limited exchange with other subpopulations (Wiig 1995, Born et al. 2009). Satellite-telemetry has indicated that polar bears range widely along the coast of eastern Greenland and in the pack ice in the Greenland Sea and Fram Strait (Born et al. 1997, 2009, Wiig et al. 2003; Laidre et al. 2012). Although there is little evidence of genetic difference between subpopulations in the eastern Greenland and Svalbard-Franz Josef Land regions (Paetkau et al. 1999), satellite telemetry and movement of marked animals indicate that the exchange between EG and the Barents Sea subpopulation is minimal (Wiig 1995, Born et al. 1997, 2009, Wiig et al. 2003, Laidre et al. 2012). No inventories have been conducted to determine the size of the polar bear subpopulation in eastern Greenland. References

Born, E.W. 1995. Research on polar bears in Greenland, ultimo 1988 to primo 1993 Pp. 105-107 In Wiig, Ø., Born E. W. and Garner G. W., (eds.). Polar Bears: Proceedings of the Eleventh Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.

Born, E.W., Wiig, Ø. and Thomassen, J. 1997. Seasonal and annual movements of radiocollared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in northeast Greenland. J. Mar. Syst.10:67-77.

Born, E.W., Dietz, R., Wiig Ø., Aars, J. and Andersen, M. 2009. Polar bear Ursus maritimus. Pp. 91- 100. In Boertmann, D., Mosbech, A., Schiedek, D. and Johansen, K. (eds.). The western Greenland Sea. A preliminary strategic environmental impact assessment of hydrocarbon activities in the KANUMAS East area. – NERI Technical report no. 719.

Dietz, R., Rigét, F.F. and Born, E.W. 2000. Geographical differences of zinc, cadmium, mercury and selenium in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Greenland. Sci. Total Envir. 245: 25-48.

Laidre, K.L., Born, E.W., Gurarie, E., Wiig, O., Dietz, R. and Stern, H. 2012. Females roam while males patrol: divergence in breeding season movements of pack ice polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Proceedings of the Royal Society B 280: 1-10.

Sandell, H., Sandell, B., Born, E.W., Dietz, R., and Sonne-Hansen, C. 2001. Polar bears in eastern Greenland: An interview survey about the occurence of polar bears and the hunt, 1999. Technical Report No. 40, Greenland Nature Institute, 94 pp.

Wiig,Ø. 1995. Distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Svalbard area. J. Zool. , Lond. 237: 515-529.

Wiig, Ø., Born, E.W., and Pedersen, L.T. 2003. Movements of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the East Greenland pack ice. 26 ed. pp. 509-516.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/foxe-basin.html Foxe Basin (FB)

Recent abundance estimate of 2580 (95% CI: 2093-3180) from 2012 based on aerial survey.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

2580 2009/10 Distance sampling Not reduced Stable 109 109 108 108 109 106 2093-3180

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Increased fragmentation, reduced ice cover

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Bear-human interactions; potential for increased shipping activities; current and projected habitat decline; there are no estimates of vital rates. Harvest appears to be sustainable.

Status and delineation

Based on 12 years of mark-recapture studies (primarily within Hudson Bay), tracking of female bears with VHF radio and satellite collars in western Hudson Bay and southern Hudson Bay, the Foxe Basin (FB) subpopulation appears to occur in Foxe Basin, northern Hudson Bay, and the western end of

Hudson Strait (Taylor and Lee 1995). More recent mapping of satellite telemetry data indicates substantial overlap with the WH and SH subpopulations and with DS to a lesser extent (Peacock et al. 2010). During the ice-free season, polar bears are concentrated on Southampton Island (the number of bears on the island was estimated at 240 independent bears in August 2008; S. Stapleton, unpublished data, Peacock et al. 2008) and along the Wager Bay coast; however, significant numbers of bears are also encountered on the islands and coastal regions throughout the Foxe Basin area (Peacock et al. 2008; Stapleton et al. 2012). A total subpopulation estimate of 2,197 ± 260 for 1994 was developed (Taylor et al. 2006) from a mark-recapture analysis based on tetracycline biomarkers where the marking effort was conducted during the ice-free season, and distributed throughout the entire area. TEK suggested the subpopulation of polar bears has increased (GN consultations in villages in Foxe Basin 2004 – 2012); the subpopulation estimate was increased to 2,300 bears in 2005. Survival and recruitment rates required for PVA assessment are unavailable, and the rates observed from adjacent populations vary considerably. During a comprehensive summertime aerial survey in 2009 and 2010 (based on distance sampling and double-observer estimation) covering about 40,000 km each year, 816 and 1003 bears were observed, respectively (Stapleton et al. 2012). This most recent study yielded an abundance estimate of 2580 (95% CI: 2093 – 3180) polar bears (Stapleton et al. 2012), which is not statistically different from the 1994 estimate indicating a stable population. References

Peacock, E., Orlando, A., Sahanatien, V., Stapleton, S., Derocher, A. E. and Garshelis D. L. 2008. Foxe Basin Polar Bear Project, Interim Report, 2008. Department of Environment File Report, Government of Nunavut, Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. 55 pp.

Peacock, E., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., and Obbard, M.E. 2010. Polar bear ecology and management in Hudson Bay in the face of climate change. Pages 93-115 in Ferguson S. H., Loseto L. L., Mallory M. L., eds. A little less Arctic: Top predators in the world's largest northern inland sea, Hudson Bay. London: Springer.

Sahanatien, V. and Derocher, A. E. 2012. Monitoring sea ice habitat fragmentation for polar bear conservation. Animal Conservation doi :10.1111/j.1469-175.2012.00529.

Stapleton et al. 2012.

Stirling, I. and Parkinson, C. L. 2006. Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic 59:261-275. Stapleton, S., Garshelis, D., Peacock, E. and Atkinson S. 2012. Foxe Basin Polar Bear Aerial Survey, 2009 and 2010. Final Report, 2012. Department of Environment File Report, Government of Nunavut, Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. 19 pp.

Taylor, M.K. and Lee J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations - a management perspective. Arctic 48:147-154.

Taylor, M.K., Lee, J., Laake, J. and McLoughlin, P.D. 2006. Estimating population size of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Nunavut using tetracycline biomarkers. File Report, Department of Environment, Government of Nunavut. Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. 13 pp.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/gulf-of-boothia.html Gulf of Boothia (GB)

A mark-recapture study was completed in 2000 and the estimated population size was 1,600 bears at that time. The subpopulation is considered to be stable.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

1592 2000 Physical capture-recapture Not reduced Stable 74 62 74 60 74 67 870-2314

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Stable, probable shift to more dynamic ice.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Current and projected habitat change may affect productivity of ecosystem. Population has high vital rates and low harvest. New assessment planned for 2015. Status and delineation

The Gulf of Boothia area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The population boundaries of the Gulf of Boothia (GB) subpopulation are based on genetic studies (Paetkau et al. 1999, Campagna et al. 2013), movements of tagged bears (Stirling et al. 1978, Taylor and Lee 1995), movements of adult females with satellite radio-collars in GB and adjacent areas (Taylor et al. 2001), and interpretations by local Inuit hunters of how local conditions influence the movements of polar bears in the area. An initial subpopulation estimate of 333 bears was derived from the data collected within the boundaries proposed for GB, as part of a study conducted over a larger area of the central Arctic (Furnell and Schweinsburg 1984). Although population data from this area were limited, local hunters reported that numbers remained constant or increased since the time of the central Arctic polar bear survey. Based on TEK, recognition of sampling deficiencies, and polar bear densities in other areas, an interim subpopulation estimate of 900 was established in the 1990s. Following the completion of a mark-recapture inventory in spring 2000, the subpopulation was estimated to number 1,592 ± 361 bears (Taylor et al. 2009). Natural survival and recruitment rates were estimated at values higher than the previous standardized estimates (Taylor et al. 1987). Taylor et al. (2009) concluded that the subpopulation was increasing in 2000, as a result of high intrinsic rate of growth and low harvest. Harvest rates were increased in 2005 based on the 2000 population estimate and the population was believed to be stable. References

Barber, D. G. and Iacozza. J. 2004. Historical analysis of sea ice conditions in M'Clintock channel and the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut: Implications for ringed seal and polar bear habitat. Arctic 57:1-14.

Campagna, L., Van Coeverden de Groot, P. J., Saunders, B. L., Atkinson, S. N, Weber, D. S., Dyck, M. G., Boag, P. T and Lougheed S. C. 2013. Extensive sampling of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Northwest Passage (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) reveals population differentiation across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Ecol. Evol., doi:10.1002/ece3.662.

Furnell, D. J. and Schweinsburg, R. E. 1984. Population-dynamics of central Canadian actic island polar bears. J.Wildl.Manage. 48:722-728.

Howell, S. E. L., Tivy, A., Yackel, J. J. and McCourt S. 2008. Multi-year sea-ice conditions in the Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago region of the Northwest Passage: 1968-2006. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46:229-242.

Keith, D., Arqvik, J., Kamookak, L. and Ameralik, J. 2005. Inuit Qaujimaningit Nanurnut: Inuit Knowledge of Polar Bears. Gjoa Haven Hunters and Trappers and CCI Press, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Markus, T., Stroeve, J. C. and Miller J. 2009. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length. J. Geophys. Res. 114:C12024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005436.

Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C. and Emery W. 2011. Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice through spring 2011. Geophys. Res. Letters 38:L13502, doi:10.1029/2011GL047735.

Sou, T. and Flato G. 2009. Sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modeling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-60). J. Climate 22:2181-2198.

Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Calvert, W. and Killian, H.P.L. 1978. Population ecology studies of the polar bear along the proposed Arctic Islands Gas Pipeline Route, Final Report. Environmental Management Service, Department of Environment, Alberta, Canada. 93 pp.

Taylor, M.K. and Lee J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations - a management perspective. Arctic 48:147-154.

Taylor, M.K., Akeeagok, S., Andriashek, D., Barbour, W., Born, E.W., Calvert, W., Cluff, H.D., Ferguson, S., Laake, J., Rosing-Asvid, A., Stirling, I. and Messier, F. 2001. Delineating Canadian and Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations by cluster analysis of movements. Can. J. Zool. 79:690-709.

Taylor, M.K., DeMaster, D.P., Bunnell, F.L. and Schweinsburg, R.E. 1987. Modeling the sustainable harvest of polar bears. J. Wild. Manage. 51:811-820.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D. and Messier, F. 2009. Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut. Mar. Mamm. Sci. 25:778-796.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/kane-basin.html Kane Basin (KB)

A small subpopulation of approximately 150 polar bears, estimated in 1997. Harvest is thought to be unsustainable, and the population declining.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Estimate Relative to historic Current (approx. 12-yr 5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year / Year Method level period centered on 95% CI (approx. 25-yr past) present) Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual

164 1994- Physical capture- Data deficient Declining 11 5 11 6 11 4 94-234 1997 recapture

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Reduced ice cover, earlier break-up, later freeze-up.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Harvest, current and projected habitat decline. 100% of PVA runs resulted in decline after 10 years. Subpopulation is currently being re-assessed using genetic capture-recapture. Status and delineation

The Kane Basin area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Based on the movements of adult females with satellite collars and recaptures of tagged animals, the boundaries of the Kane Basin (KB) subpopulation include the North Water Polynya to the south, the Kennedy Channel to the north and Greenland and Ellesmere Island to the east and west (Taylor et al.

2001). Polar bears in KB do not differ genetically from those in Baffin Bay (Paetkau et al. 1999). The size of the subpopulation was estimated to be 164 ± 35 (SE) for 1994 – 1997 (Taylor et al. 2008). The intrinsic natural rate of growth for KB polar bears is low at 1.009 (SE, 0.010) (Taylor et al. 2008), likely because of large expanses of multi-year ice and low population density of seals (Born et al. 2004). Taylor et al. (2008) suggested that KB might act as a sink because of unsustainable rates of harvest, relatively unproductive habitat, and lack of genetic differentiation with BB. The sub-population is currently undergoing re-assessment and a new abundance estimate is expected by the end of 2014. References

Born, E.W., Teilmann, J., Acquarone, M. and Rigét, F. F. 2004. Habitat use of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) in the North Water area (North Baffin Bay). Arctic 57:129 - 142.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., Born, E.W., Rosing-Asvid, A., and Messier, F. 2008. Population parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of Kane Basin, Canada and Greenland. Polar Biology 31: 491-499.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/kara-sea.html Kara Sea (KS)

Population size and status are unknown.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Unknown Data deficient Data deficient NA NA NA

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Earlier break-up, later freeze-up, relatively poor biological productivity.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

There has been no hunting in the Kara Sea area since 1957. Recent habitat decline has in many years led to feeding problems for polar bears in the sea in ice-free season. Status and delineation

The Kara Sea area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

This subpopulation includes the Kara Sea (KS) and overlaps in the west with the Barents Sea subpopulation in the area of Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya archipelagos. Data for KS and the

Barents Sea, in the vicinity of Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, are mainly based on aerial surveys and den counts (Parovshivkov 1965, Belikov and Matveev 1983, Uspenski 1989, Belikov et al. 1991, Belikov and Gorbunov 1991, Belikov 1993). Telemetry studies of movements have been done throughout the area, but data to define the eastern boundary are incomplete (Belikov et al. 1998, Mauritzen et al. 2002). References

Belikov, S.E., Chelintsev, N.G., Kalyakin, V.N., Romanov, A.A., and Uspensky, S.M. 1991. Results of aeriel counts of the polar bear in the Soviet Arctic in 1988. In: Proceedings of the Tenth Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. pp. 75-79.

Belikov, S.E. 1993. The polar bear. In Bears. Moscow, Nauka. pp. 420-478.

Belikov, S.E., Garner, G.W., Wiig, O., Boltunov, A.N., and Gorbunov, Yu.A. 1998. Polar bears of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago of the Russian Arctic. Ursus 10: 33-40.

Belikov, S.E. and Gorbunov, Y.A. 1991. Distribution and migrations of the polar bear in the Soviet Arctic in relation to ice conditions. In Proceedings of the Tenth Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. pp. 70-74.

Belikov, S. E. and Matveev, L. G. 1983. Distribution and number of polar bears and their dens on Franz- Josef Land. Pp. 84-85 In Rare Mammals of USSR and their Protection. Materials of the III All-Union Meeting, Moscow, USSR. (In Russian).

Mauritzen, M., Derocher, A.E., Wiig, O., Belikov, S.E., Boltunov, A.N., Hansen, E., and Garner, G.W. 2002. Using satellite telemetry to define spatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Journal of Applied Ecology 39: 79-90.

Parovshivkov, V.Y. 1965. Present status of the polar bear population of Franz Josef Land. Pp. 237-242 In Marine Mammals. Nauka, Moscow. (In Russian).

Uspenski, S. M. 1989. The polar bear. Agropromizdat, Moscow, USSR. (In Russian).

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/lancaster-sound.html Lancaster Sound (LS)

A population size of 2,500 bears was estimated in 1998 using mark-recapture methods. Population is thought to be declining, because of highly selective harvest of male polar bears.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Relative to historic Current (approx. 12-yr 5-yr mean 3-yr mean Last year Estimate / Year Method level period centered on 95% CI (approx. 25-yr past) present) Potential Actual Potential Actual Potential Actual

2541 1995- Physical capture- 1759- Data deficient Data deficient 85 87 85 89.3 85 91 1997 recapture 3323

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Lancaster Sound is one of the most biologically productive areas in the Canadian Arctic; however, earlier break-up and later freeze-up may negatively affect bears now and in future.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Demographic data are >15 years old. Selective hunting for males in the harvest decreased due to the US import ban and listing under the US ESA. Harvest, projected habitat decline, possible increase in shipping activities; TEK suggests the subpopulation is stable or increasing. Actual removals also include approved use of credits. Status and delineation

The Lancaster Sound area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Information on the movements of adult female polar bears monitored by satellite radio-collars, and mark-recapture data from past years, has shown that this subpopulation is distinct from the adjoining Viscount Melville Sound, M’Clintock Channel, Gulf of Boothia, Baffin Bay and Norwegian Bay subpopulations (Taylor et al. 2001). Survival rates of the pooled Norwegian Bay and LS populations were used in the PVA to minimize sampling errors; the subpopulation estimate of 2,541 ± 391 is based on an analysis of both historical and current mark-recapture data to 1997 (Taylor et al. 2008). This estimate is considerably larger than a previous estimate of 1,675 that included Norwegian Bay (Stirling et al. 1984). Taylor et al. (2008) estimated survival and recruitment parameters that suggest this subpopulation has a lower renewal rate than previously estimated. However, what effect this may or may not have on the present population is not known. References

Boukal, D. S. & Berec, L. 2002 Single-species models of the Allee effect: extinction boundaries, sex ratios and mate encounters. J. Theor. Biol. 218, 375–394. (doi:10.1006/jtbi.2002.3084).

Canadian Wildlife Service. 2009. Nunavut Consultation Report – Consultations on the proposed listing of the polar bear as Special Concern under the Species at Risk Act. Iqaluit, Nunavut. 247 pp.

Derocher, A. E., Lunn, N. J. and Stirling, I. 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr Comp Biol 44:163-176.

Kingsley, M. C. S., Stirling, I. and Calvert, W. 1985. The distribution and abundance of seals in the Canadian High Arctic, 1980-82. Can. J. Fish. Aquat.Sci. 42:1189-1210.

Markus, T., Stroeve, J. C. and Miller J. 2009. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length. J. Geophys. Res. 114:C12024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005436.

Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C. and Emery W. 2011. Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice through spring 2011. Geophys. Res. Letters 38:L13502, doi:10.1029/2011GL047735.

McLoughlin, P. D., Taylor, M. K. and Messier, F. 2005. Conservation risks of male-selective harvest for mammals with low reproductive potential. J. Wildl. Manage. 69:1592-1600.

Molnar, P.K., Derocher, A.E., Lewis, M.A. and Taylor, M.K. 2008. Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 275:217-226.

Schweinsburg, R.E., Lee, L.J. and Latour, P.B. 1982. Distribution, movement and abundance of polar bears in Lancaster Sound, Northwest Territories. Arctic 35:159-169.

Sou, T. and Flato G. 2009. Sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modeling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-60). J. Climate 22:2181-2198.

Stirling, I. and Derocher, A. E. 2012. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence. Global Change Biology, 18:2694–2706.

Stirling, I., Calvert, W. and Andriashek, D. 1984. Polar bear ecology and environmental considerations in the Canadian High Arctic. Pp. 201-222 In Olson, R., Geddes F. and Hastings, R. (eds.). Northern Ecology and Resource Management. University of Alberta Press, Edmonton, Canada.

Taylor, M.K., Akeeagok, S., Andriashek, D., Barbour, W., Born, E.W., Calvert, W., Cluff, H.D., Ferguson, S., Laake, J., Rosing-Asvid, A., Stirling, I. and Messier, F. 2001a. Delineating Canadian and Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations by cluster analysis of movements. Can. J. Zool. 79:690-709.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D. and Messier, F. 2008. Mark-recapture and stochastic population models for polar bears of the high Arctic. Arctic 61:143-152.

Welch, H.E., Bergmann, M.A., Siferd, T.D., Martin, K.A., Curtis, M.F., Crawford, R.E., Conover, R.J. and Hop, H. 1992. Energy-flow through the marine ecosystem of the Lancaster Sound region, Arctic Canada. Arctic 45:343-357.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/laptev-sea.html Laptev Sea (LV)

Population size and status are unknown.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

Unknown Data deficient Data deficient NA NA NA

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Earlier break-up, later freeze-up, relatively poor biological productivity.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

There has been no hunting in the Laptev Sea area since 1957. One of the main recent concerns is increasing uncontrolled activity of groups digging for mammoth ivory on the Novosibirsk Islands what leads to high potential poaching. Status and delineation

The Laptev Sea area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The Laptev Sea subpopulation (LP) area includes the western half of the East Siberian Sea and most of the Laptev Sea, including the Novosibirsk and possibly Severnaya Zemlya islands (Belikov et al. 1998). The 1993 estimate of subpopulation size for LP (800 – 1,200) is based on aerial counts of dens on the Severnaya Zemlya in 1982 (Belikov and Randla 1987) and on anecdotal data collected in 1960–80s on the number of females coming to dens on Novosibirsk Islands and on the mainland coast (Kischinski 1969, Uspenski 1989). At present these estimates are not actual, and population size is unknown. References

Belikov, S.E., Garner, G.W., Wiig, O., Boltunov, A.N., and Gorbunov, Yu.A. 1998. Polar bears of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago of the Russian Arctic. Ursus 10: 33-40.

Belikov, S. E. and Randla, T. E. 1987. Fauna of birds and mammals of Severnaya Zemlya In Syroyechkovskiy, E.E., (ed.). Fauna and Ecology of Birds and Mammals in Middle Siberia. Nauka, Moscow, USSR. (In Russian).

Kischinski, A. A. 1969. The polar bear on the Novosibirsk Islands. In Bannikov, A. G. Kischinski A. A. and Uspenski, S. M. (eds.). The polar bear and its conservation in the Soviet Arctic. Hydrometerological Publishing House, Leningrand, USSR. (In Russian with English summary).

Uspenski, S. M. 1989. The polar bear. Agropromizdat, Moscow, USSR. (In Russian).

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/mclintock-channel.html M'Clintock Channel (MC)

Population estimate of 284 polar bears, based on mark-recapture work completed in 2000. There is low harvest, and the population is thought to be increasing from reduced numbers.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

284 2000 Physical capture-recapture Reduced Increasing 3 2.8 3 3 3 3 166-402

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Stable, probable shift to more dynamic ice.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Being "managed for increase" though actual trend unconfirmed. New reassessment of subpopulation to begin in 2014; potential for shipping activities if multiyear ice declines. Population is currently managed for recovery with harvest below sustainable rates. Status and delineation

The M'Clintock Channel area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The current population boundaries for the M’Clintock Channel (MC) subpopulation are based on recovery of tagged bears, movements of adult females with satellite radio-collars in adjacent areas (Taylor and Lee 1995, Taylor et al. 2001), and genetics (Campagna et al. 2013). These boundaries appear to be a consequence of large islands to the east and west, the mainland to the south, and the multiyear ice in Viscount Melville Sound to the north. An estimate of 900 bears was derived from a 6- year study in the mid-1970s within the boundaries proposed for the MC subpopulation, as part of a study conducted over a larger area of the central Arctic (Furnell and Schweinsburg 1984). Following the completion of a mark-recapture inventory in spring 2000, the subpopulation was estimated to number 284 ± 59.3 (Taylor et al. 2006). Natural survival and recruitment rates were estimated at values lower than previous standardized estimates (Taylor et al. 1987).

References

Furnell, D. J. and Schweinsburg, R. E. 1984. Population-dynamics of central Canadian actic island polar bears. J.Wildl.Manage. 48:722-728.

Markus, T., Stroeve, J. C. and Miller J. 2009. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length. J. Geophys. Res. 114:C12024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005436.

Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C. and Emery W. 2011. Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice through spring 2011. Geophys. Res. Letters 38:L13502, doi:10.1029/2011GL047735.

Sou, T. and Flato G. 2009. Sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modeling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-60). J. Climate 22:2181-2198.

Taylor, M.K. and Lee J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations - a management perspective. Arctic 48:147-154.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D. and Messier, F. 2006. Demographic parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears in M'Clintock Channel, Nunavut, Canada. J. Wildl. Manage. 70:1667-1673.

Taylor, M.K., DeMaster, D.P., Bunnell, F.L. and Schweinsburg, R.E. 1987. Modeling the sustainable harvest of polar bears. J. Wild. Manage. 51:811-820.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/northern-beaufort-sea.html Northern Beaufort Sea (NB)

The population is thought to be stable, and estimated using mark-recapture at approximately 980 (95% CI: 825-1135) animals in 2006.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

980 2006 Physical capture-recapture Not reduced Stable 65 37.4 65 46.7 65 43 825-1135

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Extent of sea ice present over continental shelf in fall declining

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

September sea ice extent has declined significantly from 1979-2009. Further loss of habitat could result in declines in vital rates. TEK suggests population stable. Status and delineation

The Northern Beaufort Sea area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Studies of movements and abundance estimates of polar bears in the eastern Beaufort Sea have been conducted using telemetry and mark-recapture at intervals since the early 1970’s (Stirling et al. 1975, Demaster et al. 1980, Stirling et al. 1988, Lunn et al. 1995). As a result, it was recognized that there were separate populations in the North and South Beaufort Sea areas (NB and SB) and not a single population as was suspected initially (Stirling et al. 1988, Amstrup et al. 1995, Taylor and Lee 1995, Bethke et al. 1996). The density of polar bears using the multi-year ice of the northernmost area was lower than it was further south. The subpopulation estimate of 1,200 (Stirling et al. 1988) for NB was believed to be relatively unbiased at the time but the most northerly areas of the northwestern coast of Banks Island and M’Clure Strait were not completely surveyed in the 1980s because of concerns about research activity conflicting negatively with guided sport hunters in the area. The northern region of the NB subpopulation was later surveyed separately in 1990 – 92, but the densities encountered were low and the ratio of marked to unmarked polar bears was similar to that in the southern portion of the subpopulation. There was no indication that the subpopulation estimate of 1,200 should be increased. A mark-recapture survey, completed in 2006 suggested that the size of the NB subpopulation to be 980 ± 155 in 2006 but that it has remained stable over the previous three decades, probably because ice conditions have remained stable and the harvest has been maintained within sustainable limits (Stirling et al. 2011). The amount of ice remaining over the continental shelf in NB in late summer fluctuates, although there is no significant trend to date it appears a trend toward a decline may be commencing. Analyses using data from satellite tracking of female polar bears and spatial modeling techniques suggest that the boundary between NB and SB may need to be moved somewhat to the west of its current eastern limit at Pearce Point, in response to changing patterns of breakup and freeze-up resulting from climate warming (Amstrup et al. 2004, Amstrup et al. 2005). However, for the purposes of this assessment, we have retained the current boundaries in which the most recent mark-recapture work was conducted (see Stirling et al. 2011). Please see the status and delineation section of the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation for more details regarding the NB-SB boundary. References

Amstrup, S.C. and Durner, G.M. 1995. Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young. Can. J. Zoology 73:1312-1322.

Amstrup, S.C., McDonald, T.L. and Durner, G.M. 2004. Using satellite radiotelemetry data to delineate and manage wildlife populations. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 32:661-679.

Amstrup, S.C., Durner, G.M., Stirling, I. and McDonald, T.L. 2005. Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea. Arctic 58:247-259.

Bethke, R., Taylor, M., Amstrup, S. and Messier, F. 1996. Population delineation of polar bears using satellite collar data. Ecol. Appl. 6:311-317.

Demaster, D.P., Kingsley, M.C.S. and Stirling, I. 1980. A multiple mark and recapture estimate applied to polar bears. Can. J. Zool. 58:633-638.

Kingsley, M.C.S., Stirling, I. and Calvert, W. 1985. The distribution and abundance of seals in the Canadian High Arctic, 1980-82. Can. J. Fish. Aquat.Sci. 42:1189-1210.

Lunn, N.J., Stirling, I. and Andriashek, D. 1995. Movements and distribution of polar bears in the northeastern Beaufort Sea and M'Clure Strait. Final Report to the Inuvialuit Wildlife Management Advisory Committee, Inuvik, Northwest Territories. Canadian Wildlife Service, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. 65 pp.

Messier, F., Taylor, M.K. and Ramsay, M.A. 1992. Seasonal activity patterns of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic as revealed by satellite telemetry. J. Zool. 226:219-229.

Messier, F., Taylor, M.K. and Ramsay, M.A. 1994. Denning ecology of polar bears in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. J. Mammal. 75:420-430.

Pilfold, N.W., Derocher, A.E., Stirling, I., Richardson, E. 2014. Polar bear predatory behaviour receals seascape distribution of ringes seal lairs. Popul. Eco. 56: 129-138.

Smith, T.G. and Stirling, I. 1975. The breeding habitat of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida): The birth lair and associated structures. Can. J. Zool. 53:1297-1305.

Smith, T.G. and Stirling, I. 1978. Variation in the density of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) birth lairs in the Amundsen Gulf, Northwest Territories. Can. J. Zool. 56:1066-1071.

Stirling, I., Andriashek, D., Latour, P.B. and Calvert, W. 1975. The distribution and abundance of polar bears in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Final Report to the Beaufort Sea Project. Fisheries and Marine Service, Department of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. 59 pp.

Stirling, I. and Archibald, W.R. 1977. Aspects of predation of seals by polar bears. J. Fisher. Res. Brd. Can. 34:1126-1129.

Stirling, I., Kingsley, M.C.S. and Calvert, W. 1982. The distribution and abundance of seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea, 1974-79. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper 47. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. 23 pp.

Stirling, I., Andriashek, D., Spencer, C. and Derocher, A.E. 1988. Assessment of the polar bear population in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Final Report to the Northern Oil and Gas Assessment Program. Canadian Wildlife Service, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. 81 pp.

Stirling, I., Richardson, E., Andriashek, D. and Derocher, A.E.. 2006. Population assessment of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf. Internal Report. Canadian Wildlife Service, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

Stirling, I., McDonald, T.L., Richardson, E.S., Regehr, E.V., and Amstrup, S.C. 2011. Polar bear population status in the Northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971–2006. Ecol. Appl. 21:859–876.

Taylor, M.K. and Lee J. 1995. Distribution and abundance of Canadian polar bear populations - a management perspective. Arctic 48:147-154.

Taylor, M. K., Akeeagok, S., Andriashek, D., Barbour, W., Born, E. W., Calvert, W., Cluff, . D., Ferguson, S., Laake, J., Rosing-Asvid, A., Stirling, I., and Messier, F. 2001. Delineating Canadian and Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations by cluster analysis of movements. Can. J. Zool. 79:690-709.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., Cluff, H.D., Ramsay, M. and Messier, F. 2002. Managing the risk from hunting for the Viscount Melville Sound polar bear population. Ursus 13:185-202.

Thiemann, G.W., Iverson, S.J. and Stirling, I. 2008. Polar bear diets and arctic marine food webs: insights from fatty acid analysis. Ecological Monographs 78: 591-613.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/norwegian-bay.html Norwegian Bay (NW)

A population size of 190 was estimated in 1998. The population is thought to be declining; harvest is low, but the population has lower productivity and is quite discrete.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

203 1997 Physical capture-recapture Data deficient Data deficient 4 1.6 4 2.3 4 3 115-291

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Stable, probable shift to dynamic multiyear ice

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Initial PVA simulations resulted in population decline after 10 years, however vital rates from 2 populations were pooled for the analyses. Projections of decline were also high because of small sample size. Current data are >15 years old; small population. TEK suggests the population is stable or increasing. Status and delineation

The Norwegian Bay area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The Norwegian Bay (NW) subpopulation is bounded by heavy multi-year ice to the west, islands to the north, east, and west, and polynyas to the south (Stirling et al. 1993, Stirling 1997; Taylor et al. 2008). Data collected during mark-recapture studies, and from satellite radiotracking of adult female polar bears, it appears that most of the polar bears in this subpopulation are concentrated along the coastal tide cracks and ridges along the north, east, and southern boundaries (Taylor et al. 2001). The most current (1993 – 97) estimate is 203 ± 44 (SE; Taylor et al. 2008). Survival rate estimates for the NW subpopulation were derived from pooled Lancaster Sound and NW data because the subpopulations are adjacent and the number of bears captured in NW was too small to generate reliable survival estimates. References

Canadian Wildlife Service. 2009. Nunavut Consultation Report – Consultations on the proposed listing of the polar bear as Special Concern under the Species at Risk Act. Iqaluit, Nunavut. 247 pp.

Derocher, A. E., Lunn, N. J. and Stirling, I. 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr Comp Biol 44:163-176.

Howell, S.E.L., Tivy, A., Yackel, J.J. and McCourt S. 2008. Multi-year sea-ice conditions in the Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago region of the Northwest Passage: 1968-2006. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46:229-242.

Kingsley, M. C. S., Stirling, I. and Calvert, W. 1985. The distribution and abundance of seals in the Canadian High Arctic, 1980-82. Can. J. Fish. Aquat.Sci. 42:1189-1210.

Markus, T., Stroeve, J. C. and Miller J. 2009. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length. J. Geophys. Res. 114:C12024, doi:10.1029/2009JC005436.

Maslanik, J., Stroeve, J., Fowler, C. and Emery W. 2011. Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice through spring 2011. Geophys. Res. Letters 38:L13502, doi:10.1029/2011GL047735.

Sou, T. and Flato G. 2009. Sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modeling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-60). J. Climate 22:2181-2198.

Stirling, I. 1997. The importance of polynas, ice edges and leads to marine mammals and birds. J. Mar. Syst. 10:9-21.

Stirling, I., Andriashek, D. and Calvert, W.1993. Habitat preferences of polar bears in the western Canadian Arctic in late winter and spring. Polar Rec. 29:13-24.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D. and Messier, F. 2008. Mark-recapture and stochastic population models for polar bears of the high Arctic. Arctic 61:143-152.

Subpopulation size 1526 (95% CI: 1211-1841), current trend Declining, trend relative to historic level Reduced.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

1526 2006 Physical capture-recapture Reduced Declining 46 35.6 73 42.3 70 41 1211-1841

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Decreased annual availability of pack ice over the continental shelf

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Current and projected habitat decline, declining body condition, declining survival rates.

Status and delineation

Research on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation has been ongoing since 1967 (Amstrup et al. 1986, Stirling 2002). Radio-telemetry and mark-recapture studies through the 1980s indicated that polar bears in the region comprised a single subpopulation, with an eastern boundary between Paulatuk and Baillie Island, Northwest Territories, Canada, and a western boundary near Icy

Cape, Alaska, USA (Amstrup et al. 1986, Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Stirling et al. 1988). Analyses of more recent satellite relocations using probabilistic models indicate that, rather than exhibiting distinct boundaries, there are areas of overlap between the SB and adjacent subpopulations (Amstrup et al. 2004; Amstrup et al. 2005). At Barrow, Alaska, in the west, it is estimated that 50% of polar bears are from the SB subpopulation and 50% are from the Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulation. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, in the east, there is a 50% probability of polar bears being either from the SB or the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) subpopulation. Based on this analysis, most polar bears in the vicinity of the current eastern boundary near Pearce Point, Northwest Territories, are probably members of the NB subpopulation. To address this issue, user groups, scientists and resource managers are discussing a western shift of the SB-NB boundary. One proposal has been to move it west to 133° W longitude (due north of Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada) but a line further east is also under consideration. A similar boundary shift, or a change in the way harvest is allocated among subpopulations, may be required on the western side of the SB subpopulation where it borders the CS subpopulation (Amstrup et al. 2005). Sound management requires that current scientific information be used to define biologically relevant polar bear subpopulations. This presents an increasing challenge, as sea ice loss and increased variability in sea ice extent have the potential to affect polar bear movements and distribution, including the breakdown of historic subpopulation boundaries (Derocher et al. 2004).

The size of the SB subpopulation was first estimated to be approximately 1,800 animals in 1986 (Amstrup et al. 1986). Survival rates of adult females and dependent young were estimated from radiotelemetry data collected from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s (Amstrup and Durner 1995). Through the 1980s and early 1990s, observations suggested that abundance was increasing. Amstrup et al. (2001) found that abundance may have reached as many as 2,500 polar bears in the late 1990s. However, that estimate was not considered reliable due to small sample sizes and very wide confidence intervals on estimates for the latter years of that study. Therefore, management decisions continued to be based on an estimate of 1,800. Results from an intensive mark-recapture study conducted from 2001-2006 in both the USA and Canada indicated that the SB subpopulation included 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211 – 1,841) polar bears in 2006 (Regehr et al. 2006). This suggests that the size of the subpopulation declined between the late 1990s and 2006, although low precision in the previous estimate of 1,800 precluded a statistical determination. Subsequent analyses of the 2001-2006 data using multistate and demographic models indicated that the survival and breeding of polar bears during this period were affected by sea ice conditions, and that population growth rate was strongly negative in years with long ice-free seasons, such as 2005 when Arctic sea ice extent reached a record low (Hunter et al. 2007, Regehr et al. 2010). However, it is important to note that there is the potential for un-modeled spatial heterogeneity in mark- recapture sampling that could bias survival and abundance estimates. A thorough re-assessment of survival and abundance is underway and a final result is anticipated in late 2014. The SB subpopulation is currently considered to be declining due to a negative trend in sea ice conditions, particularly over the continental shelf, resulting from the continuing effects of climate warming. If the region continues to lose high quality polar bear hunting habitat as forecasted by global climate models (Durner et al. 2009), it is likely that the SB subpopulation could face extirpation by mid-century (Amstrup et al. 2010).

References

Amstrup, S. C., Stirling, I. and Lentfer, J. W. 1986. Past and present status of polar bears in Alaska. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 14:241-254.

Amstrup, S.C. and Durner, G.M. 1995. Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young. Can. J. Zoology 73:1312-1322.

Amstrup, S. C., McDonald, T. L. and Stirling, I. 2001. Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark- recapture case history. J. Agr. Biol. Environ. Stat. 6:221-234.

Amstrup, S. C., York, G., McDonald, T. L., Nielson, R. and Simac, K. 2004. Detecting denning polar bears with forward-looking infrared (FLIR) imagery. Bioscience 54:337-344.

Amstrup, S. C., Durner, G. M., Stirling, I. and McDonald, T. L.2005. Allocating harvests among polar bear stocks in the Beaufort Sea. Arctic 58:247-259.

Amstrup, S.C., DeWeaver, E.T., Douglas, D.C., Marcot, B.G., Durner, G.M., Bitz, C.M. and Bailey, D.A. 2010. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence. Nature 468: 955-960.

Stirling, I. 2002. Polar bears and seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf: A synthesis of population trends and ecological relationships over three decades. Arctic 55:59-76.

Derocher, A. E., Lunn, N. J. and Stirling, I. 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr Comp Biol 44:163-176.

Durner, G. M., Douglas, D. C., Nielson, R. M., Amstrup, S. C., McDonald, T. L., Stirling, I., Mauritzen, M., Born, E. W., Wiig, O., DeWeaver, E., Serreze, M. C., Belikov, S. E., Holland, M. M., Maslanik, J., Aars, J., Bailey, D. A. and Derocher, A. E. 2009. Predicting 21stcentury polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecol. Monogr. 79:25-58.

Hunter, C. M., Caswell, H., Runge, M. C., Regehr, E. V., Amstrup, S. C. and Stirling, I. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. U.S.Geological Survey Administrative Report, U.S. Department of the Interior. Reston, Virginia, USA. 51 pp.

Regehr, E. V., S. C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling. 2006. Polar bear population status in the southern Beaufort Sea. U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report, U.S. Department of the Interior. Reston, Virginia, USA. 20 pp.

Regehr, E.V., Hunter, C.M., Caswell, H., Amstrup, S.C. and Stirling, I. 2010. Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice. J. Anim. Ecol.79:117-127.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/southern-hudson-bay.html Southern Hudson Bay (SH)

With an updated estimate of 970 bears (2012), the population is thought to be stable. Body condition of bears has declined since the 1980s.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

970 2012 Distance sampling Not reduced Stable 45 57.2 45 71.7 45 49 680-1383

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Earlier break-up, later freeze-up.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Harvest, current and projected habitat decline, declining body condition, declining survival rates. Status and delineation

The Southern Hudson Bay area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

Boundaries of the Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation are based on observed movements of marked bears, on returns of tagged harvested animals, and on telemetry studies (Jonkel et al. 1976, Kolenosky and Prevett 1983, Kolenosky et al. 1992, Obbard and Middel 2012, Middel 2013). The range of the SH subpopulation includes much of eastern and southern Hudson Bay and James Bay and large expanses of the coastline of Ontario and Québec as well as areas up to 120 km inland (Kolenosky and Prevett 1983, Obbard and Walton 2004, Obbard and Middel 2012). Therefore, the management unit includes about 465,000 km2 of the surface area of Hudson Bay and James Bay and approximately 1270 km of the coastline of Ontario and 1731 km of the coastline of Québec plus inland areas and offshore islands.

The initial estimate of population size came from a 3-year (1984–1986) capture-recapture study conducted in mainland Ontario (Kolenosky et al. 1992). Based on that study, the size of the SH subpopulation was estimated to be 763 ± 323 animals (Kolenosky et al. 1992). This estimate was subsequently adjusted upwards to 1000 for management purposes by the Canadian Polar Bear Technical Committee largely because some areas away from the coast may have been under-sampled due to the difficulty of locating polar bears inland in the boreal forest and because areas in James Bay were not sampled (Lunn et al. 1998). A re-analysis of the 1984-1986 capture data produced an estimate for the study area of 641(95% CI = 401–881 for those years (Obbard et al 2007, Obbard 2008) A subsequent 3- year capture-recapture study (2003–05) that replicated the effort and geographic study area in mainland Ontario of the 1984—86 study produced an estimate of 673 (95% CI 396—950; Obbard 2008). An analysis (Mh Chao implementation of a closed mark-recapture model) of bears captured on Akimiski Island in James Bay during 1997 and 1998 resulted in the addition of 70–110 bears to the total subpopulation estimate (Obbard 2008). Results of the 2 intensive capture–recapture studies suggest that abundance was unchanged between 1984–86 and 2003–2005, though survival rates in all age and sex categories declined (Obbard 2008) as did body condition (Obbard et al. 2006).

Intensive aerial surveys were conducted during the fall ice-free season over mainland Ontario (same geographic area as for the capture–recapture studies) and Akimiski Island in 2011 and over the remaining islands in James Bay, the coastal areas of Québec from Long Island to the SH–FB border, and of the off shore islands in eastern Hudson Bay in 2012. Results of the analysis for 2011 provided an estimate of 887 bears (95% CI: 602–1,307) in the mainland Ontario, neighboring islands, and Akimiski Island portions of the SH management unit during the 2011 ice-free season. The estimate for the 2012 survey was 83 bears (SE: 4.5) in the 2012 study area. Thus, combining the aerial survey results from 2011 and 2012 yielded an overall estimate of 970 (SE: 177, 95% CI: 680–1383) for SH (Obbard et al. 2013b). Overall, despite the difference in methodologies, assumptions, and biases between capture– recapture studies and aerial surveys, the evidence suggests it is likely that the population has not changed in abundance since the mid-1980s.

These studies and telemetry data collected from 1999–2009 (Obbard and Middel 2012, Middel 2013) have documented seasonal fidelity to the Ontario coast during the ice-free season, and some intermixing with the Western Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin subpopulations on the sea ice during winter months.

References

Jonkel, C., P. Smith, I. Stirling, and G.B. Kolenosky. 1976. The present status of the polar bear in the James Bay and Belcher Islands area. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper 26. 42 p.

Kolenosky, G.B. and J.P. Prevett. 1983. Productivity and maternity denning of polar bears in Ontario. International Conference on Bear Research and Management 5: 238-245.

Kolenosky, G.B., K.F. Abraham, and C.J. Greenwood. 1992. Polar bears of Southern Hudson Bay. Polar bear project, 1984-88: Final report. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Maple, ON. 107 p.

Lemelin, R.H., M. Dowsley, B. Walmark, F. Siebel, L. Bird, G. Hunter, T. Myles, M. Mack, M. Gull, and M. Kakekaspan. 2010. Wabusk of the Omushkegouk: Cree–polar bear (Ursus maritimus) interactions in Northern Ontario. Human Ecology 38: 803-815.

Lunn, N.J., M. Taylor, W. Calvert, I. Stirling, M. Obbard, C. Elliott, G. Lamontagne, J. Schaeffer, S. Atkinson, D. Clark, E. Bowden, and B. Doidge. 1998. Polar bear management in Canada 1993-1996. In Polar Bears: Proceedings of the Twelfth Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group, Edited by A.E. Derocher, G.W. Garner, N.J. Lunn, and Ø. Wiig. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.

McDonald, M., L. Arragutainaq, and Z. Novalinga. 1997. Voices from the Bay: Traditional ecological knowledge of Inuit and Cree in the Hudson Bay bioregion. Canadian Arctic Resources Committee, Ottawa, ON.

Middel, K.R. 2013. Movement parameters and space use for the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation in the face of a changing climate. Unpublished M.Sc. thesis, Trent University, Peterborough, ON.

Obbard, M.E. 2008. Southern Hudson Bay polar bear project 2003–2005: Final report. Unpublished report, Wildlife Research and Development Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, ON. 64 p.

Obbard, M. E., M. R. L. Cattet, T. Moody, L. R. Walton, D. Potter, J. Inglis, and C. Chenier. 2006. Temporal trends in the body condition of Southern Hudson Bay polar bears. Climate Change Research Information Note, No. 3. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development Branch, Sault Ste. Marie, ON. 8 p.

Obbard, M.E., T.L. McDonald, E.J. Howe, E.V. Regehr, and E.S. Richardson. 2007. Polar bear population status in Southern Hudson Bay, Canada. 2007. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA.

Obbard, M.E., and K.R. Middel. 2012. Bounding the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation. Ursus 23: 134-144.

Obbard, M.E., K.R. Middel, M.R.L. Cattet, E.J. Howe, G.B. Kolenosky, K.F. Abraham, and C.G. Greenwood. 2013. Trends in sea ice and polar bear body condition in Southern Hudson Bay, 1980— 2009. Oral presentation, 22nd International Conference on Bear Management and Conservation, Provo, UT, 16-20 September 2013.

Obbard, M.E., K.R. Middel, S. Stapleton, I. Thibault, V. Brodeur, and C. Jutra. 2013. Southern Hudson Bay polar bear aerial survey, 2011 and 2012. Final report. Unpublished report. Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, ON. 43p.

Obbard, M.E., and L.R. Walton. 2004. The importance of Polar Bear Provincial Park to the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear population in the context of future climate change. In C.K. Rehbein, J.G. Nelson, T.J. Beechey, and R.J. Payne, editors. Parks and protected areas research in Ontario, 2004: planning northern parks and protected areas: proceedings of the Parks Research Forum of Ontario annual general meeting, May 4-6, 2004. Parks Research Forum of Ontario, Waterloo, ON.

Stirling, I., N.J. Lunn, J. Iacozza, C. Elliott, and M. Obbard. 2004. Polar bear distribution and abundance on the southwestern Hudson Bay coast during open water season, in relation to population trends and annual ice patterns. Arctic 57: 15-26.

Thiemann, G.W., S.J Iverson, I. Stirling, and M.E. Obbard. 2011. Individual patterns of prey selection and dietary specialization in an Arctic marine carnivore. Oikos 120: 1469-1478.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/viscount-melville-sound.html Viscount Melville Sound (VM)

The most recent inventory was completed in 1992; at that time the population was estimated to be 160 polar bears. Current population size and status is unknown. New M-R estimate expected in 2015.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

161 1992 Physical capture-recapture Data deficient Data deficient 7 5.2 7 6 7 7 121-201

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Stable, shift from multi-year to annual sea ice

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Subpopulation currently being reassessed. Presently being "managed for increase" but no evidence that is happening. Area has very low densities of ringed seals. Status and delineation

The Viscount Melville Sound area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

A five-year study of movements and subpopulation size, using telemetry and mark-recapture, was completed for polar bears inhabiting Viscount Melville (VM) in 1992 (Messier et al. 1992, 1994, Taylor et al. 2002). Population boundaries were based on observed movements of female polar bears with satellite radio-collars and movements of bears tagged in and out of the study area (Bethke et al. 1996, Taylor et al. 2001). The current subpopulation estimate of 215 ± 58 (1996) was based on simulations from parameters measured in 1993 (Taylor et al. 2002). In the spring of 2011 a mark-recapture study was initiated to re-assess the status of the VM polar bear population. Results from this study are expected in 2015. References

Messier, F., Taylor, M.K., and Ramsay, M.A. 1994. Denning ecology of polar bears in the Canadian Arctic archipelago. Journal of Mammalogy 75: 420-430.

Messier, F., Taylor, M.K., and Ramsay, M.A. 1992. Seasonal activity patterns of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian arctic as revealed by satellite telemetry. J. Zool. , Lond. 226: 219- 229.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., Cluff, H.D., Ramsay, M., and Messier, F. 2002. Managing the risk from hunting for the Viscount Melville Sound polar bear population. Ursus 13: 185-202.

http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/populations/western-hudson-bay.html Western Hudson Bay (WH)

Abundance estimate of 1000 (95% CI: 715-1398) from 2011, few observations of females with cubs. Declines in survival and birth rates and body condition have been linked to earlier ice-break up.

Status table outtake

Size Trend Human-caused removals 2009–2013

1000 2011 Distance sampling Reduced Declining 20.2 19.6 23 22 28 22 715-1398

See also the complete table (all subpopulations)

Habitat quality Earlier break-up, later freeze-up.

Comments, vulnerabilities and concerns

Concerns include harvest, current and projected habitat decline, declining body condition in all age and sex classes results in higher mortality of cubs, subadults and old adults when breakup is early, and declining overall production of cubs. TEK suggests population increasing. A new population estimate based on extensive continued Physical Capture-Recapture will be available in 2014 and, will provide an updated assessment of the long-term trend in population size and vital rates, that is not possible from a single aerial survey. Status and delineation

The Western Hudson Bay area. See also the complete map (all subpopulations).

The current population boundaries of the Western Hudson Bay (WH) subpopulation are based on extensive records of capture, recapture, and harvest of tagged animals (Stirling et al. 1977, Derocher and Stirling 1990, 1995, Taylor and Lee 1995, Lunn et al. 1997). This subpopulation appears to be geographically segregated from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation to the southeast and the Foxe Basin subpopulation to the north during the open-water season, although all three subpopulations mix on the Hudson Bay sea ice during the winter and spring (Stirling et al. 1977, Derocher and Stirling 1990, Stirling and Derocher1993, Taylor and Lee 1995).

During the 1960s and 70s, subpopulation abundance likely increased with the closure of the fur trading post at York Factory, withdrawal of military personnel from Churchill, and the closure of hunting in Manitoba (Stirling et al. 1977, Derocher and Stirling 1995). Derocher and Stirling (1995) estimated the mean population size for 1978-1992 to be 1000 ± 51. This estimate was considered conservative because the study had not covered the southern portion of the range east of the Nelson River; for management purposes, population size was adjusted to 1200 (Calvert et al. 1995, Wiig et al. 1995). Regehr et al. (2007) reported a decline in abundance from 1194 (95% CI = 1020, 1368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794, 1076) in 2004. Further, the survival rates of cubs, sub-adults, and old bears (>20 years) were negatively correlated with the date of sea ice breakup (Regehr et al. 2007).

A comprehensive aerial survey was conducted in 2011 to continue development of non-invasive techniques to estimate abundance and to address inconsistencies between local knowledge and perceptions that suggest WH is increasing and the research that suggest WH is decreasing (Atkinson et al. 2012). Both distance sampling and sight-resight protocols were used on the survey; a total of 711 bears were sighted. Analysis of the survey data resulted in an abundance estimate of 1,000 (95% CI = 715, 1398). More bears, particularly adult males, were observed in the coastal areas east of the Nelson River towards the WH/SH boundary than documented through the late 1990s (Stirling et al. 2004); Atkinson et al. (2012) suggested that a distributional shift may have negatively biased abundance estimates derived from capture samples. However, mean litter size (cubs-of-the-year, 1.43±0.08; yearlings, 1.22±0.10) and number of cubs observed as a proportion of total observations (cubs-of-the- year, 0.07; yearlings, 0.03) were lower than those recorded for the neighbouring subpopulations of Foxe Basin and Southern Hudson Bay and consistent with WH having low reproductive productivity (Regehr et al. 2007, Peacock et al. 2010).

References

Atkinson, S., D. Garshelis, S. Stapleton, and D. Hedman. 2012. Western Hudson Bay polar bear aerial survey, 2011. Unpublished final report, Government of Nunavut, 57 pages.

Calvert, W., M. Taylor, I. Stirling, G. B. Kolenosky, S. Kearney, M. Crête, and S. Luttich. 1995. Polar bear management in Canada 1988-92. Pp. 61-79 in Ø. Wiig, E. W. Born, and G. W. Garner, eds. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the Eleventh Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.

Cherry, S. G., A. E. Derocher, G. W. Thiemann, and N. J. Lunn. 2013. Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology 82:912-921.

Derocher, A. E., and I. Stirling. 1990. Distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during the ice-free period in western Hudson Bay. Canadian Journal of Zoology 68:1395 - 1403.

Derocher, A. E., and I. Stirling. 1995. Estimation of polar bear population size and survival in western Hudson Bay. Journal of Wildlife Management 59:215-221.

Derocher, A. E., I. Stirling, and W. Calvert. 1997. Male-biased harvesting of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Journal of Wildlife Management 61:1075-1082.

Dyck, M. G., and R. K. Baydack. 2004. Vigilance behaviour of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the context of wildlife-viewing activities at Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Biological Conservation 116:343- 350.

Gagnon, A. S., and W. A. Gough. 2005. Trends in dates of ice freeze-up and break-up over Hudson Bay, Canada. Arctic 58:370-382.

Hochheim, K., D. G. Barber, and J. V. Lukovich. 2010. Changing sea ice conditions in Hudson Bay, 1980-2005. Pp. 39-51 in S. H. Ferguson, L. L. Loseto, and M. L. Mallory, eds. A Little Less Arctic: Top Predators in the World’s Largest Northern Inland Sea. Springer, New York.

Kearney, S. R. 1989. The Polar Bear Alert Program at Churchill, Manitoba. Pp. 83-92 in M. Bromley, ed. Bear-People Conflicts: Proceedings of a Symposium on Management Strategies. Northwest Territories Department of Renewable Resources, Yellowknife.

Lie, E., H. J. S. Larsen, S. Larsen, G. M. Johansen, A. E. Derocher, N. J. Lunn, R. J. Norstrom, Ø. Wiig, and J. U. Skaare. 2004. Does high organochlorine (OC) exposure impair the resistance to infection in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)? Part I: Effect of OCs on the humoral immunity. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A 67:555-582.

Lie, E., H. J. S. Larsen, S. Larsen, G. M. Johansen, A. E. Derocher, N. J. Lunn, R. J. Norstrom, Ø. Wiig, and J. U. Skaare. 2005. Does high organochlorine (OC) exposure impair the resistance to infection in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)? Part II: Possible effect of OCs on mitogen- and antigen-induced lymphocyte proliferation. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A 68:457-484.

Lemelin, R. H. 2005. Wildlife tourism at the edge of chaos: Complex interactions between humans and polar bears in Churchill, Manitoba. Pp.183-202 in F. Berkes, R. Huebert, H. Fast, M. Manseau, and A. Diduck, eds. Breaking Ice: Renewable Resource and Ocean Management in the Canadian North. University of Calgary Press, Calgary, AB.

Lunn, N. J., M. Branigan, L. Carpenter, J. Justus, D. Hedman, D. Larsen, S. Lefort, R. Maraj, M. E. Obbard, E. Peacock, and F. Pokiak, F. 2010. Polar bear management in Canada, 2005-2008. Pp. 87-113 in M. E. Obbard, G. W. Thiemann, E. Peacock, and T. D. DeBruyn, eds. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.

Lunn, N. J., I. Stirling, D. Andriashek, and G. B. Kolenosky. 1997. Re-estimating the size of the polar bear population in Western Hudson Bay. Arctic 50:234-240.

McDonald, M., L. Arragutainaq, and Z. Novalinga. 1997. Voices from the Bay: Traditional Knowledge of Inuit and Cree in the Hudson Bay Bioregion. Canadian Arctic Resources Committee, Ottawa and Environmental Committee of Municipality of Sanikiluaq, Sanikiluaq, 98 pages.

McKinney, M. A., R. J. Letcher, J. Aars, E. W. Born, M. Branigan, R. Dietz, T. J. Evans, G. W. Gabrielsen, E. Peacock, and C. Sonne. 2011. Flame retardants and legacy contaminants in polar bears from Alaska, Canada, East Greenland and Svalbard, 2005-2008. Environment International 37:365–374.

McKinney, M. A., E. Peacock, and R. J. Letcher. 2009. Sea ice-associated diet change increases the level of chlorinated and bromiated contaminants in polar bears. Environmental Science & Technology 43:4334-4339.

McKinney, M. A., I. Stirling, N. J. Lunn, E. Peacock, and R. J. Letcher 2010. The role of diet on long- term concentration and pattern trends of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in western Hudson Bay polar bears, 1991-2007. Science of the Total Environment 408:6210–6222.

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