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Understanding the Hydrological Response of Changed Environmental Boundary Conditions in Semi-Arid Regions: Role of Model Choice and Model Calibration

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Understanding the Hydrological Response of Changed Environmental Boundary Conditions in Semi-Arid Regions: Role of Model Choice and Model Calibration Understanding the Hydrological Response of Changed Environmental Boundary Conditions in Semi-Arid Regions: Role of Model Choice and Model Calibration Item Type text; Electronic Dissertation Authors Niraula, Rewati Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 01/10/2021 01:00:17 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/594961 UNDERSTANDING THE HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF CHANGED ENVIRONMENTAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN SEMI-ARID REGIONS: ROLE OF MODEL CHOICE AND MODEL CALIBRATION by Rewati Niraula __________________________ Copyright © Rewati Niraula 2015 A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY WITH A MAJOR IN HYDROLOGY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2015 1 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Dissertation Committee, we certify that we have read the dissertation prepared by Rewati Niraula, titled Understanding the Hydrological Response of Changed Environmental Boundary Conditions in Semi-Arid Regions: Role of Model Choice and Model Calibration and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. _____________________________________________________________Date: 11/19/2015 Thomas Meixner ______________________________________________________________Date: 11/19/2015 Hoshin Gupta ______________________________________________________________Date: 11/19/2015 Francina Dominguez ______________________________________________________________Date: 11/19/2015 David P Guertin Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate’s submission of the final copies of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. ________________________________________________ Date: 11/19/2015 Dissertation Director: Thomas Meixner 2 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that an accurate acknowledgement of the source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the copyright holder. SIGNED: Rewati Niraula 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Several persons, in different ways have helped and supported me throughout this work. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Tom Meixner for his mentorship, guidance, encouragement and endless support for the last 5 years to help me successfully accomplish this research. I would also like to thank my dissertation committee: Dr. Hoshin Gupta, Dr. Francina Dominguez and Dr. Phil Guertin for their invaluable suggestions, support and encouragements as I completed this dissertation. I am grateful to my former (MS) advisor Dr. Latif Kalin for introducing me to the field of hydrologic modeling and his continuous support thereafter. I am also grateful to thank Dr. Laura Norman for her continuous support, encouragements, suggestions and collaborations. I would like to acknowledge all the members of Powell Center working group (Andrew H. Manning, David A. Stonestrom, Diana M. Allen, Kyle W. Blasch, Andrea E. Brookfield, Jordan F. Clark, Alan L. Flint, Kirstin L. Neff, Bridget R. Scanlon, Kamini Singha, and Michelle A. Walvoord) for their valuable suggestions and research directions. I am grateful to the whole HWRS family for making me feel this department as my home. Olivia Hanson, Erma Santander, Thomas Alvarez, and James Broermann deserve special acknowledgment for making my life so easy and smooth at HWRS. I would also like to acknowledge US Geological Survey and National Science Foundation for providing funding for my research projects. Finally I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my family and friends who have supported and encouraged me through all my endeavors. 4 DEDICATIONS To my Parents Surya P Niraula Bhagawati D Niraula For their unconditional love and support 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 9 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 11 1.1. Research Objectives ......................................................................................................... 13 1.2. Dissertation format........................................................................................................... 13 2. PRESENT STUDY .................................................................................................................. 14 2.1. Summary of Manuscript 1: Determining the Importance of Model Calibration for Forecasting Absolute / Relative Changes in Streamflow from LULC and Climate Changes. .................................................................................................................................. 14 2.2. Summary of Manuscript 2: Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the Western US. ................................................................................. 15 2.3. Summary of Manuscript 3: How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? .................................................................................................................. 16 3. CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................... 17 4. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 21 APPENDIX A: DETERMINING THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL CALIBRATION FOR FORECASTING ABSOLUTE / RELATIVE CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW FROM LULC AND CLIMATE CHANGES ....................................................................................................... 24 Abstract ................................................................................................................................... 25 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 26 2. Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 29 2.1. Study Area .................................................................................................................. 29 2.2. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ................................................................. 29 2.3. Model Set up and Simulation ...................................................................................... 30 2.4. Model Calibration/Validation ..................................................................................... 31 2.5. Change Analysis ......................................................................................................... 33 3. Results ................................................................................................................................. 34 6 3.1. Model calibration ........................................................................................................ 34 3.2. Model Performance ..................................................................................................... 36 3.3. Effect of calibration on forecasting impact of LULC change ..................................... 37 3.4. Effect of calibration on forecasting climate change effect ......................................... 39 4. Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 41 4.1. Effect of LULC and climate changes on streamflow .................................................. 41 4.2. Model calibration affects absolute change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change ..................................................................................................................................... 42 4.3. Model calibration affects relative change in streamflow due to LULC change but not due to climate change............................................................................................................. 43 5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 47 6. Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. 48 7. References ........................................................................................................................... 48 8. Tables .................................................................................................................................. 58 9. Figures................................................................................................................................
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