Derby and Nottingham
Transforming Cities Fund Tranche 2
Strategic Outline Business Case
November 2019
Derby and Nottingham
Transforming Cities Fund Tranche 2
Strategic Outline Business Case
November 2019
Produced by:
With support from:
Contact:
Chris Carter
Head of Transport Strategy Nottingham City Council
4th Floor, Loxley House
Station Street Nottingham NG2 3NG
0115 876 3940
[email protected]
Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
Table of Contents
1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 1
Bid overview...................................................................................................................................................1 Structure of the remainder of this document...................................................................................2
2. Strategic Case: The Local Context................................................................................... 3
Key statistics and background ................................................................................................................5 Primary local transport challenges and opportunities...................................................................7 Key opportunities for transforming our cities................................................................................ 33
3. Strategic Case: Developing the programme............................................................35
The option generation, shortlisting and selection process....................................................... 35 Step 1: Option Generation..................................................................................................................... 41 Step 2: Initial sift of options.................................................................................................................. 42 Step 3: Secondary sift of options........................................................................................................ 42 Step 4: Prioritisation and Grouping.................................................................................................... 43 Step 5: Definition of Low/Med/High investment packages...................................................... 55
4. Strategic Case: Finalised TCF packages......................................................................57
Theme A: City Centre Connectivity and Integration.................................................................... 57 Theme B: Strategic Derby – Nottingham – EMA links................................................................. 73 Theme C: Nottingham Urban Growth Corridors........................................................................... 86 Theme D: Derby Urban Growth Corridors.....................................................................................102 Forecast programme-level impacts..................................................................................................116 TCF Tranche 1 and FMZ proposals additionality.........................................................................117
5. Economic Case: Value for Money............................................................................... 124
Overview.....................................................................................................................................................124 Methodology and key assumptions ................................................................................................125 ‘Low’ investment package: Economic appraisal ..........................................................................130 ‘Medium’ package: Economic appraisal.........................................................................................133 ‘High’ package: Economic appraisal ................................................................................................136 Value for Money assessment..............................................................................................................139 Key risks and uncertainties..................................................................................................................141 Distributional analysis of forecast benefits..............................................................................142
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
6. Financial Case: Package and scheme costs............................................................ 149
Low investment package costs..........................................................................................................149 Medium investment package costs .................................................................................................152 High investment package costs.........................................................................................................154 Future sustainability and Section 151 Officer sign-off..............................................................157
7. Commercial Case: Procurement and deliverability............................................. 159
Procurement strategy............................................................................................................................159 Rationale for selecting preferred procurement routes.............................................................160 Treatment of costs and risks...............................................................................................................170
8. Management Case: Governance, risks, monitoring and evaluation............ 171
Track record in delivery.........................................................................................................................171 Governance ...............................................................................................................................................173 Detailed programme plan....................................................................................................................179 Resources and reporting......................................................................................................................181 Risk management strategy..................................................................................................................183 Stakeholder management ...................................................................................................................196 Communications and dissemination strategy..............................................................................197 Monitoring and evaluation..................................................................................................................198
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
List of Tables
Table 2-1: AM Peak (8:30am arrival) vs Inter-Peak (3:00pm arrival) journey time comparison across travel modes (mins)................................................................................................................................ 14
Table 2-2: Key bus corridor weekday delays linked to identified pinch points............................. 15 Table 2-3: DfT’s TCF objectives in relation to local opportunities...................................................... 34 Table 3-1: Stakeholder engagement activities completed during TCF programme development........................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table 3-2: The Derby and Nottingham area Transforming Cities investment packages........... 45 Table 4-1: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme A scheme components...................................... 58 Table 4-2: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme B scheme components....................................... 75 Table 4-3: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme C scheme components...................................... 87 Table 4-4: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme D scheme components....................................103 Table 4-5: Key differences between TCF Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 investments in public transport and cycling.........................................................................................................................................118
Table 5-1: Summary of economic appraisal - Estimation of benefits............................................128 Table 5-2: Summary of investment costs and Operational & Maintenance costs (Net Present Values, 2010 prices)............................................................................................................................................129
Table 5-3: Low package - Economic appraisal summary results.....................................................131 Table 5-4: Summary of Present Value of Benefits (Low package, £m, 2010 prices)..................131 Table 5-5: Medium package - Economic appraisal summary results.............................................134 Table 5-6: Summary of Present Value of Benefits (Medium Package)..........................................134 Table 5-7: High package - Economic appraisal summary results....................................................137 Table 5-8: Summary of Present Value of Benefits (High Package) .................................................138 Table 5-9: Economic Appraisal results (2010 Prices) .............................................................................139 Table 6-1: Low investment package cost breakdown (2019 prices)................................................150 Table 6-2: Summary of TCF Tranche 2 Low investment package funding....................................151 Table 6-3: Medium investment package cost breakdown (2019 prices) .......................................153 Table 6-4: Summary of TCF Tranche 2 Medium investment package funding ...........................154 Table 6-5: High investment package cost breakdown (2019 prices)...............................................156 Table 6-6: Summary of TCF Tranche 2 High package programme funding.................................157 Table 7-1: Procurement strategy...................................................................................................................164 Table 8-1: Key milestones linked to successful delivery.......................................................................180 Table 8-2: Derby-Nottingham TCF programme team members and their role..........................181 Table 8-3: Risk register......................................................................................................................................185 Table 8-4: Wider stakeholders and their involvement in the TCF programme ...........................196 Table 8-5: Communications matrix ..............................................................................................................198
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
Table 8-6: Proposed Performance Indicators for monitoring............................................................202 Table 8-7: Monitoring Framework................................................................................................................206 Table 8-8: Programme coordination, monitoring and evaluation costs........................................210
List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Key Derby & Nottingham area investment corridors and growth hubs......................4 Figure 2-2: Strategic housing and employment growth...........................................................................9 Figure 2-3: Traffic congestion pressures in the Derby and Nottingham area................................ 12 Figure 2-4: Nottingham 2020 NO2 air quality model forecasts........................................................... 20 Figure 2-5: Derby 2020 NO2 air quality model forecasts....................................................................... 21 Figure 2-6: Castleward is one of Derby’s major urban renaissance areas....................................... 23 Figure 2-7: Priority Derby City Centre Regeneration Framework projects...................................... 23 Figure 2-8: Nottingham Broadmarsh area regeneration proposals .................................................. 24 Figure 2-9: Nottingham’s Southside regeneration totals £2bn of investment.............................. 25 Figure 2-10: Derby major housing and commercial growth locations............................................. 27 Figure 2-11: Nottingham HCA Action Plan sites and TCF relationships .......................................... 28 Figure 2-12: Index of Multiple Deprivation for Nottingham (L) and Derby (R)............................. 29 Figure 3-1: Derby and Nottingham Area TCF programme development process....................... 35 Figure 3-2: Map of Derby and Nottingham area TCF Tranche 2 investments............................... 49 Figure 3-3: Map of TCF Tranche 1 investments and Future Mobility Zone proposals ............... 50 Figure 3-4: Derby and Nottingham Area Transforming Cities Fund Programme rationale...... 51 Figure 3-5: Belfast’s Glider achieved 30% passenger trip growth in its first year......................... 53 Figure 3-6: NET Tram network extension proposals................................................................................ 54 Figure 4-1: Map of Theme A – City Centre Connectivity and Integration proposals.................. 60 Figure 4-2: New Nottingham College City Hub (under construction now) .................................... 61 Figure 4-3: The Eastside (left) and Unity Square (right) regeneration projects............................. 63 Figure 4-4: Nottingham’s Broadmarsh area regeneration proposals ............................................... 64 Figure 4-5: Refurbished Carrington Street buildings returned to office use.................................. 65 Figure 4-6: Nottingham city centre growth areas .................................................................................... 66 Figure 4-7: Proposed extent of Derby rail station – city centre improvements ............................ 68 Figure 4-8: Derby rail station proposals – current (left) and future (right) ..................................... 68 Figure 4-9: Derby Rail and Bus station link cycling + public realm proposals .............................. 69 Figure 4-10: Current layout of Derby Bus Station..................................................................................... 69
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
Figure 4-11: Derby city centre public realm – old (orange) meets new (grey).............................. 70 Figure 4-12: Public realm proposals for The Spot in Derby.................................................................. 71 Figure 4-13: Derby City Centre public realm + cycle route improvements.................................... 72 Figure 4-14: Theme B proposals to enhance links between Derby, Nottingham and EMA..... 74 Figure 4-15: Current (left) and proposed (right) width and quality of Derby Canal and Riverside Paths, once upgraded...................................................................................................................... 77
Figure 4-16: Outline route for the Derby – Nottingham cycle expressway .................................... 78 Figure 4-17: The 7% increase in journeys using Spectrum fares in 2018-19.................................. 82 Figure 4-18: Current RTI/traffic signal priority system architecture................................................... 83 Figure 4-19: Proposed RTI/traffic signal priority system architecture............................................... 83 Figure 4-20: Proposed Nottingham area charge point Locations...................................................... 85 Figure 4-21: Theme C proposals for Nottingham’s Urban Growth Corridors................................ 90 Figure 4-22: Nottingham Southern Growth Corridor Plan.................................................................... 92 Figure 4-23: Potential B5010 inbound bus capacity improvements.................................................. 94 Figure 4-24: Leapool Park & Ride bus link proposals............................................................................. 95 Figure 4-25: LCWIP priority cycling proposals included in our TCF2 programme....................... 99 Figure 4-26: Current and proposed River Trent ped/cycle crossing options...............................100 Figure 4-27: Theme D – Derby Urban Growth Corridor proposals..................................................105 Figure 4-28: Outline design for Boulton Moor (A6) Park & Ride site .............................................107 Figure 4-29: Outline route plan for Derby’s new eRT service.............................................................111 Figure 4-30: Derby – Mickleover segregated cycle route (eastern section) .................................113 Figure 4-31 Derby – Mickleover segregated cycle route (western section) .................................113 Figure 4-32: Chequers Road scheme designs..........................................................................................114 Figure 4-33: Raynesway / Spondon LCWIP route options ..................................................................115 Figure 4-34: Proposed FMZ data platform functionality......................................................................120 Figure 4-35: Proposed ‘Open access MaaS’ system delivered through FMZ...............................121 Figure 4-36: Summarising the Proposed Future Mobility Zones Package....................................122 Figure 5-1: Low package sources of estimated benefits by scheme type.....................................132 Figure 5-2: Medium package sources of estimated benefits by scheme type............................135 Figure 5-3: High package sources of estimated benefit by scheme type.....................................138 Figure 8-1: TCF programme governance...................................................................................................176 Figure 8-2: LEP governance structure..........................................................................................................178
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
Appendices
Appendix A Option Assessment Report Appendix B Economic Appraisal Summary Appendix C AMCB TEE PA Tables Appendix D Strategic Model reports Appendix E Appendix F
VURT Appraisal outputs Active Mode appraisals
Appendix G Financial Case spreadsheet Appendix H Other spreadsheet models Appendix I Appendix J
Logic Maps Letters of support confirming match-funding contributions
Appendix K Programme Plan
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Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case
1. Introduction
1.1
This document sets out the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) for Derby and Nottingham City Councils’ joint bid into tranche 2 of the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Transforming Cities Fund (TCF). It builds purposefully on our fully-funded Tranche 1 transport schemes to establish inter-related packages of regionally significant investments. Together, these will improve opportunities for local residents, employees and visitors to travel more sustainably into, and around, the local area. This complements our Future Mobility Zone proposals submitted to DfT in September 2019.
Bid overview
1.2
This is a programme-level SOBC submission, for which we have prepared three costed packages in line with DfT’s co-development guidance:
•••
Low: £117.91m total programme value (£100.46m DfT Capital investment) Medium: £152.95m total programme value (£131.16m DfT Capital) High: £186.35m total programme value (£160.78m DfT Capital)