Derby and Nottingham Transforming Cities Fund Tranche 2 Strategic Outline Business Case November 2019 Derby and Nottingham Transforming Cities Fund Tranche 2 Strategic Outline Business Case November 2019 Produced by: With support from: Contact: Chris Carter Head of Transport Strategy Nottingham City Council 4th Floor, Loxley House Station Street Nottingham NG2 3NG 0115 876 3940 [email protected] Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case Document Control Sheet Ver. Project Folder Description Prep. Rev. App. Date V1-0 F:\2926\Project Files Final Draft MD, NT CC, VB 28/11/19 GT, LM, IS V0-2 F:\2926\Project Files Draft (ii) MD, NT CC, VB 25/11/19 GT, LM, IS V0-1 F:\2926\Project Files Draft (i) MD, NT NT 11/11/19 GT, LM, IS i Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case Table of Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Bid overview ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Structure of the remainder of this document ................................................................................... 2 2. Strategic Case: The Local Context ................................................................................... 3 Key statistics and background ................................................................................................................ 5 Primary local transport challenges and opportunities ................................................................... 7 Key opportunities for transforming our cities ................................................................................ 33 3. Strategic Case: Developing the programme ............................................................ 35 The option generation, shortlisting and selection process ....................................................... 35 Step 1: Option Generation ..................................................................................................................... 41 Step 2: Initial sift of options .................................................................................................................. 42 Step 3: Secondary sift of options ........................................................................................................ 42 Step 4: Prioritisation and Grouping .................................................................................................... 43 Step 5: Definition of Low/Med/High investment packages ...................................................... 55 4. Strategic Case: Finalised TCF packages ...................................................................... 57 Theme A: City Centre Connectivity and Integration .................................................................... 57 Theme B: Strategic Derby – Nottingham – EMA links ................................................................. 73 Theme C: Nottingham Urban Growth Corridors ........................................................................... 86 Theme D: Derby Urban Growth Corridors ..................................................................................... 102 Forecast programme-level impacts.................................................................................................. 116 TCF Tranche 1 and FMZ proposals additionality ......................................................................... 117 5. Economic Case: Value for Money ............................................................................... 124 Overview ..................................................................................................................................................... 124 Methodology and key assumptions ................................................................................................ 125 ‘Low’ investment package: Economic appraisal .......................................................................... 130 ‘Medium’ package: Economic appraisal ......................................................................................... 133 ‘High’ package: Economic appraisal ................................................................................................ 136 Value for Money assessment .............................................................................................................. 139 Key risks and uncertainties .................................................................................................................. 141 Distributional analysis of forecast benefits .............................................................................. 142 ii Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case Environmental impacts.......................................................................................................................... 147 6. Financial Case: Package and scheme costs ............................................................ 149 Low investment package costs .......................................................................................................... 149 Medium investment package costs ................................................................................................. 152 High investment package costs ......................................................................................................... 154 Future sustainability and Section 151 Officer sign-off .............................................................. 157 7. Commercial Case: Procurement and deliverability ............................................. 159 Procurement strategy ............................................................................................................................ 159 Rationale for selecting preferred procurement routes ............................................................. 160 Treatment of costs and risks ............................................................................................................... 170 8. Management Case: Governance, risks, monitoring and evaluation ............ 171 Track record in delivery......................................................................................................................... 171 Governance ............................................................................................................................................... 173 Detailed programme plan .................................................................................................................... 179 Resources and reporting ...................................................................................................................... 181 Risk management strategy .................................................................................................................. 183 Stakeholder management ................................................................................................................... 196 Communications and dissemination strategy .............................................................................. 197 Monitoring and evaluation .................................................................................................................. 198 iii Derby & Nottingham - TCF Tranche 2 – Strategic Outline Business Case List of Tables Table 2-1: AM Peak (8:30am arrival) vs Inter-Peak (3:00pm arrival) journey time comparison across travel modes (mins) ................................................................................................................................ 14 Table 2-2: Key bus corridor weekday delays linked to identified pinch points ............................. 15 Table 2-3: DfT’s TCF objectives in relation to local opportunities ...................................................... 34 Table 3-1: Stakeholder engagement activities completed during TCF programme development ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Table 3-2: The Derby and Nottingham area Transforming Cities investment packages ........... 45 Table 4-1: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme A scheme components ...................................... 58 Table 4-2: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme B scheme components....................................... 75 Table 4-3: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme C scheme components ...................................... 87 Table 4-4: Low/Med/High breakdown of Theme D scheme components .................................... 103 Table 4-5: Key differences between TCF Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 investments in public transport and cycling ......................................................................................................................................... 118 Table 5-1: Summary of economic appraisal - Estimation of benefits ............................................ 128 Table 5-2: Summary of investment costs and Operational & Maintenance costs (Net Present Values, 2010 prices) ............................................................................................................................................ 129 Table 5-3: Low package - Economic appraisal summary results ..................................................... 131 Table 5-4: Summary of Present Value of Benefits (Low package, £m, 2010 prices) .................