2018 NCAR Annual Report National Center for Atmospheric Research 2018 Annual Report 2018 NCAR ANNUAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS 2018 NCAR Annual Report A Message from the Interim NCAR Director New Approach to Geoengineering Simulations is Significant Step Forward North American storm Clusters Could Produce 80 Percent More Rain US Gains in Air Quality are Slowing Down Scientists Fly into the Heart of Smoke Plume The Climate Secrets of Southern Clouds New Model Reveals Origins of the Sun's Seasons NCAR-Based Climate Model Gets a Significant Upgrade The Entire Atmosphere in a Single Model Groundbreaking Data Set Gives Unprecedented Look at Future Weather New Climate Forecasts for Watershed - and the Water Sector NCAR 2018 Metrics & Publications A MESSAGE FROM THE INTERIM NCAR DIRECTOR The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is one of the world’s premier scientific institutions. With a strong focus on the atmospheric and related sciences we have an internationally recognized staff and research program dedicated to advancing knowledge, providing community- based resources, and building human capacity. In this Annual Report, and in the accompanying Laboratory Reports, I invite you to learn more about NCAR, see how we are collaborating internally and with the worldwide research community to drive advances in our understanding of fundamental processes in our atmosphere and how the atmosphere interacts with, and is influenced by, other components of the Sun-Earth system. This progress is being driven, in part, by new technologies and their effective utilization at NCAR, including: advanced observing facilities for field studies and the Sun, powerful high-performance computing capabilities, valuable research data sets that describe the state of the Sun- Earth system, and widely used state-of-the-science community models that are providing improved capabilities for predictions of weather (including catastrophic events), air quality, hydrology, climate variability and change, and space weather. Important educational and technology transfer activities at NCAR continue to encourage outstanding young scientists into the field and bring new research and technical achievements into the public and private sectors. The material presented in this Report is only a small sampling of the activities and accomplishments going on across the center at NCAR over the past year and reflects the considerable efforts of Dr. Jim Hurrell who retired from NCAR and the NCAR Directorship in August 2018. Jim’s career-long commitment to NCAR’s scientific program and his commitment to building capacity across the breadth of NCAR’s activities as Director was appreciated by many across the Center. Please enjoy this Annual Report as a snapshot of recent NCAR competencies, facilities, and scientific accomplishments. Highlights across the imperative activities at NCAR include investigations in geoengineering simulation that permit scientists to investigate strategies to limit atmospheric warming and reduce its side effects. Studies of storm clusters in North America that are likely to be larger and more intense as climate changes, posing widespread flooding risks across the region. Research indicating that the improvements in US air quality have slowed over recent years and that it may be increasingly difficult for the Nation to achieve its ozone pollution goals. Numerous field campaigns took place globally over the past year, of note we’ve worked with the community to study wildfire smoke plumes with far-reaching effects on weather, air quality and climate, and the processes of cloud formation over the Southern Ocean. Process studies such as these will be captured in parameterizations like those that https://nar.ucar.edu/print/book/export/html/3504 1/26 2018 NCAR Annual Report have seen the development and deployment of Version 2 of the Coupled Earth System Model which includes WACCM-X – a climate model that goes to the edge of space and enabled the first investigation of CO2’s impacts on the whole atmosphere. Further away, new modeling efforts have sought to understand the origins of the Sun’s activity “seasons” that could lead to better prediction of the solar storms at the heart of the global space weather initiative. Data science in the atmospheric sciences is starting to explore sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting in weather and watersheds as climate is changing. The latter providing a critical decision-making tool for water managers. Finally, we greatly miss the presence of our colleague and friend in Michael Thompson, who passed away on October 15th. Michael, working closely with his worldwide network of collaborators, significantly advanced our understanding of the Sun’s interior before turning his talents to organizational management over the last decade at the University of Sheffield in the UK, at HAO as Director (2010-2014), as Deputy Director of NCAR (2014-2018), and Interim President of UCAR (2015-2016). Michael’s steady approach, his patience, attention to detail, and general thoughtfulness will be missed by many across the Center and the broader NCAR/UCAR family. Please accept my sincere thanks for your ongoing support and hard work. With best wishes for 2019, Scott McIntosh NEW APPROACH TO GEOENGINEERING SIMULATIONS IS SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD MODELING STRATEGY ALLOWS SCIENTISTS TO EXPLORE WAYS TO LIMIT WARMING, REDUCE SIDE EFFECTS Using a sophisticated computer model, scientists have demonstrated for the first time that a new research approach to geoengineering could potentially be used to limit Earth’s warming to a specific target while reducing some of the risks and concerns identified in past studies, including uneven cooling of the globe. The scientists developed a specialized algorithm for an Earth system model that varies the amount and location of geoengineering — in this case, injections of sulfur dioxide high into the atmosphere — that would in theory be needed, year to year, to effectively cap warming. They caution, however, that more research is needed to determine if this approach would be practical, or even possible, in the real world. The findings from the new research, led by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Cornell University, represent a significant step forward in the field of geoengineering. Still, there are many questions that need to be answered about sulfur dioxide injections, including how this type of engineering might alter regional precipitation patterns and the extent to which such injections would damage the ozone layer. The possibility of a global geoengineering effort to combat warming also raises serious governance and ethical concerns. "This is a major milestone and offers promise of what might be possible in the future,” said NCAR scientist Yaga Richter, one of the lead authors. “But it is just the beginning; there is a lot more research that needs to be done." Past modeling studies have typically sought to answer the question "What happens if we do geoengineering?" The results of those studies have described the outcomes — both positive and negative — of injecting a predetermined amount of sulfates into the atmosphere, often right at Earth's equator. But they did not attempt to specify the outcome they hoped to achieve at the outset. In a series of new studies, the researchers turned the question around, instead asking, "How might geoengineering be used to meet specific climate objectives?" https://nar.ucar.edu/print/book/export/html/3504 2/26 2018 NCAR Annual Report "We have really shifted the The simulations on the left represent how global temperatures are expected to change if greenhouse gas emissions continue on a question, and by doing so, found "business as usual" trajectory. The simulations on the right show how temperature could be stabilized in a model by injecting sulfur that we can better understand dioxide high into the atmosphere at four separate locations. Because greenhouse gases are being emitted at the same rate in the what geoengineering may be able simulations on the left and the right, stopping geoengineering would result in a drastic spike in global temperatures. (©UCAR. This to achieve," Richter said. image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) The research findings are detailed in a series of papers published in a special issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. MIMICKING A VOLCANO In theory, geoengineering — large-scale interventions designed to modify the climate — could take many forms, from launching orbiting solar mirrors to fertilizing carbon-hungry ocean algae. For this research, the team studied one much-discussed approach: injecting sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, above the cloud layer. The idea of combating global warming with these injections is inspired by history's most massive volcanic eruptions. When volcanoes erupt, they loft sulfur dioxide high into the atmosphere, where it's chemically converted into light-scattering sulfate particles called aerosols. These sulfates, which can linger in the atmosphere for a few years, are spread around the Earth by stratospheric winds, forming a reflective layer that cools the planet. To mimic these effects, sulfur dioxide could be injected directly into the stratosphere, perhaps with the help of high-flying aircraft. But while the injections would counter global warming, they would not address all the problems associated with climate change, and they would likely have their own negative side effects.