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Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecasts Final Report

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Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecasts Final Report Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecasts Final report PRC 14-28F Alternative Fuel Vehicle Forecasts Texas A&M Transportation Institute PRC 14-28F April 2016 Authors Richard “Trey” Baker Lauren Cochran Nick Norboge Maarit Moran Jason Wagner Beverly Storey 2 Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ 5 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 8 Alternative Fuel Technologies .................................................................................................... 8 Factors Affecting Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles ........................................................ 10 Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Implications for the State’s Fuel Tax Revenues ........................................................................ 13 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 15 Texas Funding Implications ....................................................................................................... 19 Alternative Fuels and Vehicle Technologies ............................................................................. 21 Electric Vehicles ....................................................................................................................... 29 Passenger EVs .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Commercial EVs ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Compressed Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas ............................................................... 35 Passenger CNG Vehicles .................................................................................................................................... 36 Commercial CNG and LNG Vehicles ................................................................................................................ 40 Ethanol ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Passenger Ethanol Vehicles ................................................................................................................................ 43 Commercial Ethanol Vehicles ............................................................................................................................ 44 Propane ...................................................................................................................................... 45 Passenger Propane Vehicles ............................................................................................................................... 46 Commercial Propane Vehicles ............................................................................................................................ 47 Hydrogen Fuel Cell ................................................................................................................... 48 Passenger Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles ............................................................................................................. 50 Commercial Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles ......................................................................................................... 50 Alternative Fuel Taxes and Incentives ...................................................................................... 52 Taxes ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Incentives .................................................................................................................................. 53 Federal Incentives ..................................................................................................................... 54 Commercial ........................................................................................................................................................ 55 Passenger Vehicles ............................................................................................................................................. 55 Federal Mandates for Passenger Vehicles and Federal Government Fleets........................................................ 57 State of Texas ............................................................................................................................ 58 Commercial ........................................................................................................................................................ 58 Clean Fleet Grants .............................................................................................................................................. 59 Passenger Vehicles ............................................................................................................................................. 60 State Requirements for State Passenger Vehicle Fleets ...................................................................................... 62 Regional .................................................................................................................................... 63 Commercial ........................................................................................................................................................ 63 Passenger Vehicles ............................................................................................................................................. 63 3 Conclusion on Market Penetration of Alternative Fuel Vehicles ........................................... 64 Lack of Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 66 High Vehicle Purchase and Operating Costs ............................................................................ 69 Vehicle Durability, Reliability, and Public Perception ............................................................. 71 Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 72 References .................................................................................................................................... 77 4 List of Figures Figure 1. Projected U.S. New Vehicle Sales. ............................................................................... 12 Figure 2. Projected Texas Motor Fuel Tax Revenues and Estimated Uncollected Revenue from AFVs. ............................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 3. State Fuel Taxes Paid per Mile Driven (Based on Fuel Efficiency). ............................ 15 Figure 4. Vehicle Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) Requirements by Year. ............................................. 16 Figure 5. Power and Efficiency of the Average U.S. Light-Duty Fleet........................................ 17 Figure 6. Projected Texas Motor Fuel Tax Revenues................................................................... 18 Figure 7. Anticipated Uncollected State Revenue from Alternative Vehicle Adoption. .............. 20 Figure 8. Average U.S. Retail Fuel Prices per GGE. .................................................................... 23 Figure 9. Estimated Consumption of Alternative Fuel by AFVs (in Thousand GGEs). .............. 24 Figure 10. Alternative Fuel Passenger Vehicles in Use. ............................................................... 25 Figure 11. Estimated Passenger Vehicle and Light-Duty Truck Sales (Thousands). ................... 26 Figure 12. Estimated Annual Alternative Fuel Passenger Vehicle Sales (Thousands), West South Central Region. ............................................................................................................ 27 Figure 13. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Stock Composition by Fuel Type though 2040. ...................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 14. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sales through 2040. ............................................ 29 Figure 15. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales (1999–2013) for the Top 5 HEV Manufacturers. ....... 32 Figure 16. PHEV Monthly Sales (2010–2014) for Top 5 PHEV Manufacturers. ........................ 32 Figure 17. Total Texas CNG Light-Duty Vehicle Inventory. ....................................................... 38 Figure 18. Texas Light-Duty CNG Vehicle Type Estimates. ....................................................... 39 Figure 19. Number of Ethanol (E85) Passenger Vehicles in the United States. ........................... 44 Figure 20. Total Texas Propane Light-Duty Vehicle Inventory.
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