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What Happened Today? January 10, 2014 What happened today? Highlights Afternoon 146 schools to close down in Bangkok on Jan 13 Suthep meeting with prosecutors postponed until Feb 6 Diplomats briefed on embassy protection security measures Prime Minister enlists Labour Minister Chalerm Yubamrung to help manage protest containment Thai equities “already priced in the impact of political uncertainty” Police: No lethal weapons used at Thai-Japan stadium clash Morning Election Delay? National Anti-Corruption Commission to press charges against 308-ex MPs and senators for charter amendment misconduct Army Chief ambiguous over coup rumours UDD plans counter-rallies on Jan 13 Rice farmers protest late payment delay Afternoon: The BMA has ordered the temporary closure of 146 schools on January 13 Source: Bangkok Post The Office of the Attorney General has agreed to a postponement of a meeting with public prosecutors of the People’s Committee for Absolute Democracy (PCAD) leader Suthep Thaugsuban until February 6. The meeting relates to murder charges brought after the violence associated with the 2010 civil unrest. Source: Khaosod Thailand’s permanent-secretary for foreign affairs, Sihasak Phuangketkeow told foreign diplomats and ambassadors that the government had security measures in place to protect their embassies if the Bangkok protests escalate. Source: MCOT Mr Phuangketkeow’s briefing was held this afternoon. Masthead pic credits: Newly Purnell - @newley (left); Chris Coles - @KrisKoles (right) Disclaimer: While every attempt is made to source material that is factually accurate and balanced, our company accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. © Grayling 2014 Thailand Civil Unrest Report Equity fund managers are eyeing buying opportunities after valuations drop to their lowest levels in 18 months – “The market has already priced in the political uncertainty and its impact on the economy,” said Voravan Tarapoom, chief executive officer at BBL Asset Management Co. Source: Bloomberg Thai police today briefed the media and insisted that no lethal weapons were used against anti-government protestors at the clash at the Thai-Japan Stadium on December 26. One policeman and one protestor were shot dead at the clash. Many others were injured. Source: Khaosod The Prime Minister has asked the Labour Minister, Chalerm Yubamrung to help manage ‘mob protest containment’ plans on January 13. Source: DNN TV Morning: Last night the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) resolved to press charges against 308 MPs and senators accused of misconduct in connection with the charter amendment on making the Senate fully elected. This is significant because a guilty ruling would affect the establishment of a new (post Feb 2 election) government as there would be an insufficient number of MPs to convene the House and select the prime minister. The process will also slow campaigning down – the 308 MPs and Senators charged will have to acknowledge the charges and participate in NACC hearings over the next 15 days. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and 72 other lawmakers involved with the charter amendment were not charged. Source: Bangkok Post Demonstrators at yesterday’s anti-government march. Commenting on next week’s shutdown, Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha said "I cannot confirm whether there will be, or not be, a coup." He added that the government would in principle be held responsible for any violence that might break out during anti-government demonstrations. Source: Bangkok Post Masthead pic credits: Newly Purnell - @newley (left); Chris Coles - @KrisKoles (right) Disclaimer: While every attempt is made to source material that is factually accurate and balanced, our company accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. © Grayling 2014 Thailand Civil Unrest Report Pro-government supporters the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) will stage counter-rallies on January 13. Counter-rallies will not however, be held in the south or greater Bangkok which are anti- government strongholds. Source: Bangkok Post Pro-government rice farmers are protesting over a delay in payments from the government. The late payment issue has arisen because the government needs an Election Commission approved loan to pay for the latest crops. Source: The Nation Major retailers and wholesalers in Bangkok are developing continuity of business plans to manage their logistics and inventory if protests will disrupt their day-to-day business. Source: Bangkok Post What happened yesterday 5,000 demonstrators marched in a second “warm up protest” from Democracy Monument to the Thon Buri side of the city passing along Pinklao Bridge, Arun Amarin, Charan Sanitwong, Sirindhorn Road, Krungthon Bridge, Samsen Road and Bang Lamphoo. Source: Reuters A photo of a whiteboard which is alleged to represent the People’s Democratic Reform Committee shut down plan was circulated in the social media today – it was posted on Twitter by reporter Andrew MacGregor Marshall. Above - alleged plan for a “manic Monday” in Bangkok on January 13 The US Embassy posted a further security alert for citizens in Bangkok warning them to be aware of the planned demonstrations due to take place in Bangkok on January 13 - this follows increasing concern at the prospect of disruption to business and the impact on the Thai economy. Masthead pic credits: Newly Purnell - @newley (left); Chris Coles - @KrisKoles (right) Disclaimer: While every attempt is made to source material that is factually accurate and balanced, our company accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. © Grayling 2014 Thailand Civil Unrest Report The position of the military was the focus for a number of newspaper reports with headlines such as “Army silence sparks coup panic” “Thai anti-government protesters march to support Bangkok 'shutdown' and “Tanks are out for kids, not coup: Army*” – in a story that reports military tanks and armed vehicle movements around Bangkok this Thursday are part of a military parade preparations for Children’s Day celebrations on Saturday. The Bangkok Post had earlier reported yesterday that the movement of tanks and armaments was for Army Day on 18 January. Source: Bangkok Post, Reuters and The Nation Earlier, on Dec 28, Army Commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha had added to uncertainty when he remarked that “The military does not shut or open the door to a coup.” Source: Khaosod Pre-election registration results suggest interest among the public similar to last election – so far 2,164,796 people have registered for advance voting (916,210 from Bangkok alone and 143,807 from abroad).*¹ Although the Thai SET index edged up 0.7 percent today, overall, protests have had a significant impact on local markets and the currency – the baht is around a four-year low at 33.10 per dollar and the stock market has fallen nearly 14 percent since protests began in November. Source: CNN 6-month SET snapshot - Bloomberg During his daily speech last night, anti-government protest leader, Suthep Thaugsuban confirmed Chaeng Wattana, Lardprao, Victory Monument, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Rajdamri and Asoke as the main protest areas for the January 13 “Bangkok shut down” demonstration. He said protestors would not try to close the airport, or ask the military to stage a coup.*² Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra said an emergency decree would be invoked as a “final option” if protests escalate. Source: The Nation Earlier newspaper reports the Bangkok shut down may cost Thailand 20 billion baht. Source: Khaosod Masthead pic credits: Newly Purnell - @newley (left); Chris Coles - @KrisKoles (right) Disclaimer: While every attempt is made to source material that is factually accurate and balanced, our company accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. © Grayling 2014 Thailand Civil Unrest Report Tourism already badly affected - airlines have cancelled 112 scheduled flights, or 56 round-trips, from Singapore and Hong Kong to Bangkok until late February because of reduced demand. Source: Bangkok Post The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), comprising the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Thai Bankers' Association has called for a resumption of talks and offered to act as a mediator. Source: Bangkok Post Sources: Source material is embedded in the email, however additional tweets referred to in the report are listed below: *¹ - Richard Barrow https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/statuses/420260197773611009 *² - Live tweets published by Veen T (Nation newspaper reporter) https://twitter.com/veen_NT The Background: The return of ousted Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, without penalty, has been a cornerstone demand of his political supporters since the overthrow of his government by a military coup in 2006. Violent confrontations between his supporters and those of his political opponents have marred the recent history of Thailand and resulted in a highly polarised political landscape. A period of relative calm was broken in November of 2013, when a wide-reaching government sponsored amnesty bill which would also have resulted in pardons for Thaksin of corruption convictions
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