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06 Sunday, August 11, 2019 ESTABLISHED SEPTEMBER 3, 2006 HAMAD BIN SUHAIM AL THANI CHAIRMAN Opinion ADEL ALI BIN ALI MANAGING DIRECTOR DR HASSAN MOHAMMED AL ANSARI EDITOR-IN-CHIEF What Does The New Philippines Dengue Epidemic Mean? Handshakes And Missiles: A 98% increase in the country’s dengue cases from last year highlights its longstanding Mixed Signals From N Korea challenges in managing the issue Pyongyang’s recent short range missile launches should be viewed T’S officially an epidemic, the Philip- directly to the Dengvaxia case. The Philip- pines declared this week as dengue cas- pines has lost ground on measles vaccines as negotiating tactics rather than as provocations es skyrocket. A huge 146,062 cases of from 80 percent in 2008 to dropping below the tropical disease have been recorded 70 percent in 2017 at the height of the Deng- SHAWN HO AND NAH LIANG TUANG Ifrom January to late July this year, up 98 vaxia scandal. Worryingly, a survey from TRIBUNE NEWS SERVICE percent for the same period a year ago. At the London School of Hygiene and Tropi- least 622 people have died in recent months cal Medicine shows faith that “vaccines are INCE the June 30 Trump-Kim and those numbers are expected to climb as important, are safe and are effective” has meeting at the Demilitarized Zone a response rolls out nation-wide. But with dropped to between 60 and 80 percent in (DMZ), where the US and North the Dengvaxia scandal spectre still looming 2018, down from near 100 percent in 2015. Korean leaders agreed to resume large over the country’s public health agen- In the face of the newest epidemic, working level nuclear negotia- cies, this latest epidemic may prove even President Rodrigo Duterte briefly suggested Stions, there have been four separate mis- harder to resolve. bringing back Dengvaxia. While the vaccine sile launches by North Korea. Meanwhile The Dengvaxia scandal still remains is commercially available now throughout North Korea’s foreign minister did not fresh in the memory of those familiar with countries in Southeast Asia, including hot- participate in the ASEAN Regional Forum health issues in the Phil- spots Thailand and Indo- (ARF) for the first time in 10 years. ippines. French phar- nesia, similar problems How should we interpret these moves maceutical firm SanofiWith the Dengvaxia scandal with seronegative patients by North Korea, which appear to be con- Pasteur met with former spectre still looming large over persist. Still, Malacanang tradictory at first glance – their leader president Benigno Aquino the country’s public health agen- has floated the idea of a agreeing to resume negotiations but soon III in 2015, agreeing that cies, this latest epidemic may vaccine programme for after conducting four missile launches the Philippines would prove even harder to resolve those who have previously in two weeks? Are the North Koreans be the first country in had dengue. sincere about nuclear negotiations, with Asia to roll-out the mass “The problem is how these launches simply being part of their Dengvaxia vaccination programme. The do we know if one had dengue or not? We negotiating posturing? On July 25, North rea made its first two recent launches just not prompted fierce reactions from the programme cost the country $67 million need to have a test. If we have that, there’s Korea conducted its first missile launch days before this year’s ARF in Bangkok, United States and South Korea, which re- and 800,000 children had been immunised no problem. We can use that for those after the Trump-Kim meeting at the DMZ. while its third recent launch was actu- main keen to resume talks with Pyongyang. before devastating cracks began to appear. who have contracted dengue,” presidential It called the missile a “new-type tactical ally done on the morning of ARF itself. However, if North Korea decides to By December 2017, new research provided spokesman Salvador Panelo said this week. guided weapon.” Within the next eight ARF is one of the few multilateral forums utilise its ‘trump card’ by next firing a by Sanofi found the vaccine could worsen His comments highlight how widespread days, Pyongyang conducted two similar in which North Korea is a full member, medium-range ballistic missile, in a cal- dengue in recipients who had not previously the outbreak is and how difficult it is to ef- tests on July 31 and August 2, which it and it was anticipated that US Secretary culated attempt to push the United States contracted the disease. The Department of fectively monitor and treat outbreaks in ru- called a test of a “newly developed large of State Mike Pompeo and North Korea’s to adopt a more favourable negotiation Health pulled the plug and linked at least 10 ral areas of the archipelago. calibre multiple launch guided rocket sys- Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho would meet stance, this would escalate matters signif- deaths, including children, to the vaccine. Health Secretary Francisco Duque is not tem” (MLRS). On August 6, North Korea on the sidelines to resume the stalled icantly. While a medium-ranged missile Political and public health fallout to the going to entertain the return of Dengvaxia. again fired “new-type tactical guided mis- nuclear negotiations. However, about a would still fall short of Pyongyang’s self- controversy has been severe. Aquino and He says that it’s Filipino children between siles.” These launches could also be inter- week before ARF, North Korea informed declared moratorium on firing ICBMs, it allies continue to face allegations of cor- the ages of 5 and 9 which are most at risk preted as North Korea’s protests against the host, Thailand, that Ri would not be will likely receive even stronger criticism ruption for implementing the programme. of serious illness during this outbreak. And US-South Korea joint military exercises, attending. This was the first time in 10 from both the United States and South Aquino has denied the charges and says with Dengvaxia recommended for 9-years- which started on August 5. years that North Korea was not represent- Korea. That said, North Korea would mass chaos was caused by his detractors and old and up, bringing back the vaccine is a Based on the existing North Korean ed by its foreign minister at ARF. Instead, likely still retain strategic manoeuvring bumbling public health officials. “The pro- very big headache with little payoff. terminology, they had not tested any bal- North Korea sent its ambassador to Thai- capability to steer the negotiations in the tection that could have been given to a lot of He added that it’s also not a cost-ef- listic missiles. However, a different inter- land, a significant downgrade in its level direction that it desires and at a timing of people was not given… It is like scandal and fective response to such a widespread out- pretation was given by the South Korean of representation. its choice. alarm. If there are people who were killed, break. Instead, the department of health will government, which on all four occasions It is clear from these recent events While Kim wants to inject some ur- they should be held liable,” he said in Manila focus on tried measures including the iden- classified the launches as “short range that North Korea is not yet ready to re- gency into Trump’s negotiating calculus following the outbreak announcement. tification and smogging of mosquito areas, ballistic missiles” (SRBMs). By categoris- sume working level negotiations, and before the end of this year – which is the The Dengvaxia controversy’s impact on distributing nets and recommending full ing the launches as SRBMs, those launch- it wanted to avoid a situation where its former’s deadline for the US to change its public health beyond dengue is already be- coverage clothing. But, with the department es would have, in South Korea’s eyes, vio- foreign minister might be caught in a dif- approach to the nuclear negotiations – and ing felt. Trust in the system has collapsed swamped by serious allegations of misuse of lated UN Security Council Resolutions, ficult position at ARF, in front of all the induce strategic caution in Seoul, the North and an anti-vaccination movement has funds and general mismanagement, it may which prohibit North Korea from any bal- other foreign ministers from the region, Korean leader needs to restrain himself taken off, causing a measles outbreak this prove difficult to trust the agencies the Phil- listic missile launches. especially after its recent launches. How- from further escalating the situation with year. The World Health Organization points ippines now needs the most. Regardless of the terminology used, ever, it is our assessment that this is all launches of longer ranged missiles. Any these launches have not prompted the part of North Korea’s tried and tested such moves could easily herald a return same level of criticism from the United negotiating tactics – North Korea is just to the ‘fire and fury’ pre-summitry days of States and South Korea as an intercon- trying to strengthen its negotiating posi- 2017 if the slightest miscalculation or mis- tinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch tion before talks resume. We are of the take takes place. If that happens, it will be a would have. Indeed, US President Don- view that North Korea will re-engage in step too far in the brinksmanship game be- ald Trump tweeted on August 2 that the working level nuclear negotiations soon, ing played by North Korea – it will be in no launches “are not a violation of our signed especially after such a promise had been one’s interests, not even Pyongyang’s.

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