London’s Economy TodayIssue 214 | June 2020

Outlook for London’s economy remains gloomy as lockdown is eased By Gordon Douglass, Supervisory Economist, and Eduardo Orellana, Economist Also in this issue Inflation falls again in May as The easing of the COVID-19 lockdown which public debt rises above 100% of GDP for the first time in 60 began in May continued into June. However, this years...... 3 was overshadowed by data from the Office for London sees large rise in National Statistics (ONS) showing the biggest employment-related benefit ever monthly drop in UK GDP which fell by 20.4% claims...... 3 in the month of April after already falling by 5.8% Londoners less able to economise in March (Figure 1). than elsewhere in the UK during the lockdown...... 4 Monthly data can be very volatile especially in the current environment, however data for the three months to April (which included the non- Nearly a third of the UK workforce lockdown periods of February and the first half of March) showed GDP was furloughed at the end of declining by 10.4%. In economics a fall in GDP of more than 10% in May...... 5 a given year or falling GDP for 2 or more years is usually referred to London airports see a big fall as a depression. Of the sectors of the economy Accommodation and in visitor numbers due to the food services saw the largest decline in output in those months with it lockdown...... 6 falling by 40.9%, while Other services fell by 20.5%, and Construction, Brexit transition deadline looms. 7 Education, and Transport and storage all saw output fall by more than Forecasts for the economy remain 18%. However, showing the differential impact of the lockdown on poor...... 7 sectors, Financial and insurance services and Real estate saw output fall by only 1.5% and 0.4% respectively and Public administration and Economic indicators...... 9 defence saw output growing by 0.2%. Also the PMI for May, although GLA’s First Adult Education still showing a decline, did pick up a touch on their very low levels in Budget Data Publication ...... 15 the previous month. Our latest publications...... 20 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Figure 1: UK monthly 110.0 GDP, Monthly index,

105.0 January 2007 until April 2020 100.0 Source: ONS 95.0

90.0

85.0

80.0

75.0

70.0 2019 Jul 2014 Jul 2009 Jul 2015 Oct 2018 Apr 2010 Oct 2013 Apr 2008 Apr 2017 Jan 2017 Jun 2012 Jan 2012 Jun 2007 Jan 2007 Jun 2016 Mar 2011 Mar 2019 Feb 2014 Feb 2009 Feb 2017 Nov 2019 Dec 2012 Nov 2014 Dec 2007 Nov 2009 Dec 2016 Aug 2018 Sep 2011 Aug 2013 Sep 2008 Sep 2015 May 2010 May

As mentioned, easing of the lockdown has continued. For instance, non-essential shops were allowed to reopen in England on 15 June which should see some recovery in GDP over the coming months although not to pre-crisis levels for some time yet. Also the Government announced the creation in England of “support bubbles” where a single person or single person plus child household can meet another household of any size to provide support to each other. However, plans for all primary school children in England to have at least one month’s worth of further teaching before the start of the school holidays were shelved by the Government in June due to problems ensuring social distancing. Despite this easing of the lockdown, data continues to show that activity across a number of sectors of London’s economy remains reduced although with some upticks compared to the height of the lockdown for those parts of the economy for which restrictions have been eased (Figure 2). Further easing is planned in July such as the reopening of pubs in England with social distancing in place. Retail and recreational activity in London Figure 2: Retail and rocery Retail & Restaurant bookings Social venues recreation activity in pharmacy recreation London Source: Grocery and retail data from Google Mobility, 100 social venues from Purple rocery pharmacy public Wifi and restaurant bookings from Open Table. Lockdown Note: Vertical red lines show Social Distancing 50 returnSome workers changes in social distancing Scool pub etc cloe Scool Retail &

Shops open, household bubbles rule and vertical grey bands

Schools open, small groups outside recreation show weekends and public People with symptoms should self−isolate People holidays Social venues 0 Restaurant bookings 02 Mar 16 Mar 30 Mar 13 Apr 27 Apr 11 May 25 May 08 Jun 22 Jun Grocery and retail metrics from Google Mobility, social venues (bars, event spaces etc) from Purple public Wifi and restaurant bookings from OpenTable Vertical red lines show changes in social distancing rules Vertical grey bands show weekends and public holidays

GLA Economics 2 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Inflation falls again in May as public debt rises above 100% of GDP for the first time in 60 years Other data published in June also shows the impact of the pandemic on the national economy such as shown by the steep fall in inflation over the past few months. This has seen the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation fall from 1.5% in March to 0.8% in April and 0.5% in May 2020 . The ONS noted that falling prices for “motor fuels and a variety of recreational and cultural goods” caused the largest downward contributions to inflation but were partly offset by food and non-alcoholic drinks price rises. ONS data published in June also showed the impact COVID-19 and the policy responses to it are having on public finances. Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was, at the end of May 2020, 100.9% of GDP, which was the first time debt has been above 100% of GDP since March 1963. Government borrowing in May 2020 was estimated to have been £55.2 billion, about nine times bigger than in May 2019, and the highest borrowing in any month since records began in 1993. In response to the poor economic situation the Bank of England decided to extend by a further £100 billion its policy of quantitative easing, although it has slowed the rate of assets purchases under the scheme expecting to now complete it by the end of the year. The Bank further noted “that the outlook for the UK and global economies is unusually uncertain” but that “emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out” in their May economic scenario for the UK. Internationally, central banks and governments have also been taking action to support their economies. The European Central Bank increased its quantitative easing programme by €600 billion in June, with the programme set to run to June 2021. While in the US, despite a surprise boost in hiring by 2.5 million jobs in May giving an unemployment rate of 13.3%, the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has warned that the road to recovery is “going to take some time”.

London sees large rise in employment-related benefit claims Employment data from the ONS published in June allows us to see the first impact of the lockdown on London’s and the UK’s labour markets. Experimental Claimant Count data which covers claims for Jobseeker’s allowance and those claimants of Universal Credit (UC) who are “searching for work” showed that the number of claims in the capital has gone up by 167% (around 310,000) since March, which was higher than the UK increase (126%). London alone accounted for a fifth of the increase in UK claims over this period. Looking at this data in more detail shows that workers aged 25-29 saw the largest year on year increase in claims (+238%) in London but almost all age groups in the capital experienced a larger increase than their UK counterparts (Figure 3). At a more local level, Newham is the borough that experienced the largest year on year change in claims in the capital (+16,505), and West Ham is the parliamentary constituency that saw the largest increase in claims on the same period last year, followed by Tottenham and East Ham.

GLA Economics 3 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Figure 3: Claimant 300% count change, by age groups, May 2019 – 250% May 2020, UK and London 200% Source: ONS Labour Market Statistics. Note 150% that an increasing number of people became eligible 100% for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. Consequently, 50% changes in the Claimant Count will not be due wholly 0% to changes in the number of 16+ 16-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 people who are unemployed UK London

There was also a large fall in the number of hours worked at the UK level. Between February to April 2019 and February to April 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK decreased by 94.2 million, or 8.9%, to 959.9 million hours. This was the largest fall on record since the beginning of the series in 1992. Accommodation & Food Services saw the biggest fall in average actual hours; down 6.9 hours to 21.2 hours per week. While, experimental monthly estimates of paid employees and their pay using HMRC PAYE data shows that the number of payroll employees in the UK fell by 612,000 between March 2020 and May 2020 (-449,000 between March and April; -163,000 between April and May).

Londoners less able to economise than elsewhere in the UK during the lockdown The ONS also released in June analysis of household spending during the lockdown which found at the UK level that a fifth of usual household spending had been prevented by the lockdown. However, young people and those who are renting were groups that found it difficult to cut back their spending as a higher proportion of their income is spent on essential items. In relation to London the ONS observed that its households were the least equipped to cut back on their spending (Figure 4). This was because a typical London household “spends 58% of its weekly budget on essentials such as food and housing costs (the highest of any region or country of the UK)”. While, “at the same time, Londoners spend proportionally the least on activities such as holidays and meals out that have been prohibited (20%), potentially leaving them with limited wiggle room if their incomes were to fall”. Polling for the GLA further highlights the financial strain some households are under with 11% of surveyed Londoners saying they are seriously struggling financially. This comprises of 8% saying they are struggling to make ends meet, and 3% who are needing to go without essentials or rely on debt. Looking at this more closely Londoners aged 25-64 are struggling the most financially – 13% of Londoners in this age category compared to 6% of 18-24s. Whereas just 4% of Londoners aged 65+ say they are struggling financially.

GLA Economics 4 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Figure 4: Weekly North East household Northern… expenditure by region Scotland by expenditure type % Yorks &… of total), UK, financial East… year ending March Wales 2017 to financial year South West ending March 2019 South East North West Source: ONS - Family Spending West… East London

0 20 40 60 80 100 Non-discretionary & no payment holiday available Non-discretionary & payment holiday available Discretionary Prevented during lockdown

Nearly a third of the UK workforce was furloughed at the end of May For the period 18 May to 31 May 2020, the Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey (BICS) from the ONS found that 30% of the UK workforce of responding businesses had been furloughed. The BICS also found that “5% of the workforce had returned from furlough leave between 18 May and 14 June 2020”, and “according to the latest Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN), nearly half of all working adults (49%) had worked from home between 11 and 14 June 2020, an increase from 41% the previous week”. Despite so many workers being furloughed the Office for Budget Responsibility has recently revised down its estimate of the cost of the coronavirus job retention scheme by £24 billion to £60 billion. Examining this change the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) observed that rather than being due to less than expected furloughed workers “the change in estimates arose because the average wages of those being furloughed are much lower than they had expected”. GLA Economics has also undertaken analysis of the furloughing rates in London. This found that the share of 16-64 of workers that are on furlough varies significantly across local authorities and parliamentary constituencies in London. Thus, the local authority with the highest share (Hounslow – 32%) of workers (16-64) has double that of the local authority with the lowest (Camden – 16%). There was also found to be a clear relationship between furlough rates and areas that have seen the greatest rises in claimant count shares. A positive relationship between furlough rates and BAME proportions by local authority was also seen.

GLA Economics 5 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

London airports see a big fall in visitor numbers due to the lockdown Despite many parts of the lockdown being gradually eased, a restriction that’s been expanded has been on international travel. This has seen a quarantine imposed on international travellers arriving from abroad (except from the Republic of Ireland) with them being required to self-isolate for 14 days on arrival in the UK. The airline sector has warned that this is likely to exacerbate the problems it already faces as shown by the large decline in passenger numbers at London airports (Table 1). This decline has seen Heathrow airport starting a voluntary redundancy programme for its frontline staff, after already reducing management roles by a third. While, British Airways, easyJet and Ryanair have said they plan to sue the Government over the quarantine rules.

January February March April Table 1: Annual City Airport -2 -3 -72 - growth rate in the Heathrow 3 -1 -52 -97 total passengers at Stansted -1 0 -58 -99 London airports in 2020 (%) Gatwick -2 -4 -54 -100 Source: UK Civil Aviation Authority

The tourism sector which is an important employer in London has been and is likely to continue to be very negatively impacted by the current crisis. This was partly highlighted by a recent report on the creative industries, a sector with a big dependency on tourism, by Oxford Economics. This showed that at a UK level 119,000 permanent creative sector workers could be made redundant by the end of 2020. While, creative freelancers could see 287,000 roles lost by the end of the year. This is further highlighted by research by the Society of London Theatre and UK Theatre at the end of May which suggested 70% of theatres could run out of money by the end of 2020. In response to the problems faced by the tourism sector and to encourage a restart of the sector in the EU, the European Commission has launched an app to provide travellers with real-time information about COVID-19 rules and the infections status of each EU country. As indicated by the EU’s moves to open up travel, the lockdowns in most countries continue to ease, although with some tightening in the cases of a recurrence of COVID-19 such as in Beijing. A number of European countries have thus been easing their restrictions on international travel although maintaining some restrictions in certain cases such as in Greece which has opened up to arrivals from some countries viewed as low risk but not the UK.

GLA Economics 6 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Brexit transition deadline looms

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic putting an end to face to face meetings Brexit talks continue, with the deadline for any UK request for an extension of the transition period approaching at the beginning of July. However, the UK Government “formally confirmed” in June that it will not ask for such an extension according to the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove. While, in preparation for a “no deal” Brexit at the end of the year the UK has said that checks on goods from the EU will be phased in over the first six months of 2021. However, the EU stated that checks on UK goods would commence at the beginning of the year. There was a fourth meeting between the UK and EU negotiators at the beginning of June, although limited progress was made. In response to this the director-general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn, has warned that given the current pandemic firms “have not a spare moment to plan for a no trade deal Brexit at the end of the year - that is the common sense voice that needs to find its way into these negotiations”. However, since that meeting there has been some more positive signs with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, stating in a speech later in June that “I am ready to find compromises, but the British have to accept to translate legally what is written in the political declaration”. With him adding “what we now need to make progress are clear and concrete signals that the UK is open to work on an agreement”. After a high-level meeting between the Prime Minister and the EU council in mid-June, a statement was released noting that they agreed that new momentum was required adding that “they supported the plans agreed by Chief Negotiators to intensify the talks in July and to create the most conducive conditions for concluding and ratifying a deal before the end of 2020. This should include, if possible, finding an early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement”. And that “the Parties underlined their intention to work hard to deliver a relationship”.

Forecasts for the economy remain poor Although the full consequences of the end of the Brexit transition period loom at the end of the year, at the moment most economic news remains dominated by the economic consequences of the pandemic. In response to this, forecasters have been attempting to model the economic impact at the global, regional, national and sub national levels. This has seen the World Bank in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects warning that the global economy could contract by 5.2% this year with “per capita income contracting in the largest fraction

GLA Economics 7 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020 of countries globally since 1870”, while emerging market and developing economies will see “the weakest showing by this group of economies in at least sixty years”. The OECD also published its latest Economic Outlook in June which forecast the UK economy could contract by 11.5% this year, slightly worse than other major European economies. If there was a second peak in the pandemic this could rise to a 14% contraction. The IMF has updated their World Economic Outlook forecast in June and now expects the UK economy to decline by 10.2% this year before growing by 6.3% next year. More closer to home we published our latest London’s Economic Outlook in June, which in this case provided an economic scenario for the capital. This scenario was conditioned on both the Bank of England’s COVID-19 scenario published in May and the OBR’s April COVID-19 scenario and included all relevant national statistics published up to the end of May 2020. It suggested that if these scenarios occurred that: zz London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate could be -16.8% this year due to the present COVID-19 crisis. This growth rate is then expected to rebound to 17.2% in 2021 before returning to more normal figures in 2022 (4.5%). zz In line with GVA, London is projected, in this scenario, to see an unprecedented fall in the number of workforce jobs in 2020 (-7.0% in annual terms) which will be slowly recovered through positive growth rates in 2021 (1.4%) and 2022 (4.9%). zz Similarly, London’s household income and expenditure are both projected to decrease notably in 2020 before starting to grow again in 2021 and 2022. It should however be noted that there was a great deal of uncertainty around this scenario not just on the course of the pandemic but also the outcome of the EU/UK trade talks. GLA Economics will continue to monitor these and other situations over the course of the next few months and report on them in this and other publications which can be found on our publications page.

GLA Economics 8 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020 Indicator 1: TfL passenger journeys

Title In May, passenger journeys in London recovered slightly but remained very close to Economichistoric lows indicators In May, passenger journeys in London recovered slightly but remained very close to historic lows Bullets • Only 38.1 million passenger journeys were registered in May, 8.3 million more zz Only 38.1 millionthan passenger in April journeys which registered were registered the lowest in level May, of 8.3 the million historic more series than. As a in reference, April which registered the lowest level ofpassenger the historic journeys series. in As February a reference, – when passenger there were journeys no lockdown in February restrictions – when –there were no lockdown restrictionswere –27 were1.4 million 271.4. million. In May, 31.5 million of all journeys were Underground journeys and 6.7 million were• busIn May, journeys. 31.5 millionThe bus of journeys all journeys are wereestimates Underground of passengers journeys boarding and 6.7 as million the closure of the front doors to protect thewere drivers bus jou preventedrneys. The validation bus journeys of entry.are estimates The reduced of passengers demand boarding on both asmodes the follows from the Government adviceclosure not toof usethe publicfront doorstransport to protect except the for driversessential prevented journeys. validation of entry. The reduced demand on both modes follows from the Government advice not to zz The 13-period-movinguse public average transport in the except total fornumber essential of passenger journeys. journeys reduced from 247.0 million in April to 228.3 million in May. • The 13-period-moving average in the total number of passenger journeys zz The methodologyreduced used to from calculate 247.0 themillion number in April of tobus 2 28.3passenger million journeys in May. was changed by TfL on 1 April 2007. For a detailed• explanation, The methodology please seeused LET to issuecalculate 58 (Junethe number 2007). of bus passenger journeys was Source: Transport for Londonchanged by TfL on 1 April 2007. For a detailed explanation, please see LET issue Latest release: June 2020,58 (JuneNext release: 2007). July 2020 Chart Passenger journeys by mode of transport (adjusted for odd days) 200

150

100

50

0

Passenger Passenger journeys, millions 1993/94 1997/98 2001/02 2005/06 2009/10 2013/14 2017/18

Indicator 2: Annual growth inLU Series1TfL passenger journeysSeries2 Bus Series3 LUSeries4- moving average Series5 Bus - moving averageSeries6

Title The moving average annual change in passenger journeys in London reached a new The movingSource averageTransporthistoric annual lowfor Londonin May change in passenger journeys in London reached a new historic low in May LatestBullets June• 2020The moving average annual growth rate in the total number of passenger journeys zz Therelease moving averagewas annual -17.4 growth% in May, rate down in the from total - 10.9%number in of April, passenger -4.2% journeysin March, was and -17.4% -0.6% in May, down from -10.9% in April, -4.2%February in March,. and -0.6% in February. Next July 2020 zz The moving average• The annual moving growth average rate annual of bus growth journeys rate decreased of bus journeys from -11.2% decreased to -17.3% from - 11.2between% April & May release and the moving averageto -17 .3%of Underground between April passenger and May .journeys fell from -10.3% to -17.6% in the same period. • Likewise, the moving average of Underground passenger journeys went down zz TheFile reduced demandWorksheet on 1 both in Y: \modes0 Y Drive follows 2016 from\1 Macro the Government\LET\Data\LET advice Charts.xlsx not to use public transport except for essentiallocation journeys. from -10.3% to -17.6% in the same period. • The reduced demand on both modes follows from the Government advice not to Source: Transport for Londonuse public transport except for essential journeys. Latest release: June 2020, Next release: July 2020 Chart Annual change in passenger journeys by mode of transport (adjusted for odd days) 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15%

Annual percentageAnnual change -18% 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12 2015/16 2019/20

LU - moving average Bus - moving average Total - moving average

GLA EconomicsSource Transport for London 9

Latest June 2020 release

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London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Indicator 3: Unemployment rates in London and the UK

In theTitle three-month In the periodthree-month February-April, period February London’s-April, London unemployment’s unemployment rate rate was was 4.6% zz AroundBullets 234,000 • residentsAround 21634 ,years000 residents and over 16 were year unemployeds and over were in London unemployed in the inperiod London February in the - April 2020. zz The unemploymentperiod rate inFebr Londonuary - was April 4.6% 2020 in. that period, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same rate in the period November• The 2019unemploymen – Januaryt 2020.rate in London was 4.6% in that period, 0.1 percentage zz The UK’s unemploymentpoints higherrate remained than the at same 3.9% rate in thein the three-month period November period 2019February-April. – January 2020. zz Unemployment• onlyThe started UK’s tounemployment rise from the ratelast tworemained weeks atof March3.9% inbecause the three of the-month COVID-19 period outbreak. Source: ONS Labour ForceFebruary Survey -April. Latest release: June •2020, Unemployment Next release: July only 2020 started to rise from the last two weeks of March because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Chart Unemployment rate (16 years and over, resident basis) 15%

12%

9%

6%

3% Unemployment rateUnemployment 0%

London UK Indicator 4: Real GVA growth in London and the UK

Source ONS Labour Force Survey London’s GVATitle fell London’sby 1.6% economy in the fell first by 1.6% quarter in the first of quarter 2020 of comparedthe year compared to the to the same same quarter in 2019 quarter in 2019 zz London’sLatest annualJune real 2020 GVA growth rate notably decreased from 2.5% in Q4 2019 to -1.6% in the first quarter of 2020,release basedBullets on GLA• EconomicsLondon’s annual estimates. real GVA This growth implies rate anotably reduction decreased of output from 2.5 by% 4.1 in Qpercentage4 2019 points in only one quarter, the largest quarter-on-quarterto -1.6% in the first fall quarter in output of 2020 since, based the on 2008-2009 GLA Economics financial estimates crisis.. This Next July 2020implies a reduction of output by 4.1 percentage points in only one quarter, the zz Likewise, the UK output annual growth rate for Q1 2020 was -1.6% - also the lowest quarterly rate since 2009 and release largest quarter-on-quarter fall in output since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. 2.5 percentage points• Likewise, below Q4 UK 2019. output The annual impact growth of rate the for COVID-19 Q1 2020 wasoutbreak -1.6% -in also this the data lowest has only been felt in the lastFile two weeksWorksheet of March.quarterly 3 in Y:rate\0 since Y Drive 2009 2016 and 2.\15 Macropercentage\LET points\Data below\LET Q4 Charts.xlsx 2019 -. zz London’slocation real GVA quarterlyThe impact estimates of the COVID for both-19 theoutbreak period in thisQ1 data1999 has to onlyQ4 2012been felt and in the the twolast most recent quarters have been produced bytwo GLA weeks Economics. of March. Estimates for the intervening period are outturn data from the ONS, • London’s real GVA quarterly estimates for both the period Q1 1999 to Q4 2012 which does not publish quarterly estimates for London´s real GVA prior to 2013. and the two most recent quarters have been produced by GLA Economics. Source: ONS and GLA EconomicsEstimates calculations for the intervening period are outturn data from the ONS, which does Latest release: May 2020, Nextnot release:publish quarterlyJuly 2020 estimates for London´s real GVA prior to 2013. Chart Annual percentage change in real GVA 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Annual percentageAnnual change -8% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

London UK

GLA EconomicsSource ONS and GLA Economics calculations 10

Latest May 2020 release

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File Worksheet 4 in Y:\0 Y Drive 2016\1 Macro\LET\Data\LET Charts.xlsx locatio n Indicator 5: Employment rates in London and the UK

London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

London’s annual employment growth rate was 3.3% in the period February-April 2020 Title London’s annual employment growth rate was 3.3% in the period February-April zz Around 4.83 million London2020 residents over 16 years old were in employment during the three-month period February-April 2020. The rate of annual employment growth in the capital was 3.3% in that period, 1.1 percentage points higher thanBullets the •previous Around 4.period83 million (November London residents 2019-January over 16 years 2020). old were in employment during the three-month period February-April 2020. zz In the three-month period February – April 2020, the UK employment rate grew annually at a rate of 0.7%, 0.1 • The rate of annual employment growth in the capital was 3.3% in that period, percentage points below the1.1 percentage three-month points periodabove from November the previous 2019-January period (November 2020. 2019- January zz Employment started to contract2020). in the last two weeks of March because of the COVID-19 outbreak. • In the three-month period February – April 2020, the UK employment rate grew Source: ONS Labour Force Surveyannually at a rate of 0.7%, 0.1 percentage points below the three-month period Latest release: June 2020, Next release:November July 2019 2020-January 2020. • The increases in employment started to contract in the last two weeks of March because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Chart

Annual percentage change in employment (16 years and over, resident basis) 6%

4%

2%

0%

-2% Annual percentageAnnual change

-4% Mar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-MayMar-May 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Indicator 6: House prices in London and the UKLondon UK

Source ONS Labour Force Survey Title London house prices increased by 4.6% in annual terms in March London house pricesLatest increasedJune 2020 by 4.6% in annual terms in March release zz BulletsIn March 2020,• In the March average 20 20house, the price average in London house was price £489,764 in London while was for £4the89 UK,76 it4 waswhile £232,744. for the zz The annual growthUKNext it rate wasJuly in £2 2020average32 ,744 house. prices in London was 4.6% in March 2020, up from 3.0% in February release 2020. This •is theThe highest annual annual growth growth rate sincein average December house 2016. prices in London was 4.6% in March zz Average house2020, Fileprices upinWorksheet the from UK 3.0 5rose in %Y: \ byin0 Y 2.0% FebruaryDrive 2016 in annual\ 12020 Macro terms.\ ThisLET\ Data lastis the\ LETMarch, highestCharts.xlsx the same annual rate growth as in February. since locatio Source: Land RegistryDecn andember ONS 2016. Latest release: May• 2020,Average Next house release: prices July 2020 in the UK rose by 2.0% in annual terms last March, same rate as in February.

Chart Annual percentage change in average house prices (seasonally adjusted) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Annual percentageAnnual change

London UK

GLASource Economics Land Registry and ONS 11

Latest May 2020 release

Next The ONS has suspended the publication of this indicator until further notice. release

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London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Indicator 7: PMI Business Activity Index for London and the UK

Title Fall in London business activity might have reached a turning point in May Fall in London business activity might have reached a turning point in May Bullets • Business activity index at London private firms fell dramatically from 56.0 in zz The business activityFebruary index at to London 31.5 in private March firmsand to fell 13.4 dramatically in April - t hisfrom the 56.0 lowest in Februarylevel and to the 31.5 in March and to 13.4 in April - this thelargest lowest fall levelof the and historic the largest series fall-. Conversely, of the historic May series.level was Conversely, 30.8 marking in May an the level was 30.8 marking an improvementimprovement although. still indicating a decline. zz Similarly, the UK index rose from 13.8 in April to 30.0 in May. • Similarly, the UK index rose from 13.8 in April to 30.0 in May. zz The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey shows the monthly business trends at private sector firms. Index readings above 50.0• The suggest Purchasing a month-on-month Managers’ Index increase (PMI) in survey activity shows on average the monthly across businessfirms, while readings below indicate a decrease.trends at private sector firms. Index readings above 50.0 suggest a month-on- month increase in activity on average across firms, while readings below Source: IHS Markit indicate a decrease. Latest release: June 2020, Next release: July 2020 Chart PMI Business Activity Index (50 indicates no change on previous month) 70 60 change

- 50 40 30 20 Index, 50 = no 10 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

London UK Indicator 8: PMI New Business Index for London and the UK

Source IHS Markit NewTitle business New activity business in London activity inimproved London rose in Mayin May from from a a record record low in in April April Latest June 2020 zz BulletsThe releasePMI New • BusinessThe PMI Index New in BusinessLondon went Index up in in London May (29.7) went up up from in May its lowest (29.7) point from inits the lowest recorded series (14.9) in April. Thispoint is the in thefirst recorded increase inseries three ( 14.9months.) in April. This is the first increase in three zz SimilarlyNext for the JulyUK,months 2020the .level of this index in May was 30.5, up from 15.7 in April. zz An indexrelease reading • Similarly above 50.0 for indicatesthe UK, anthe increase level of in this new index orders in from May thewas previous 30.5, up month. from 15.7 in April. Source: IHSFile Markit Worksheet 7 in Y:\0 Y Drive 2016\1 Macro\LET\Data\LET Charts.xlsx Latest release:location June • 2020,An Nextindex release: reading July above 2020 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders from the previous month.

Chart PMI New Business Index (50 indicates no change on previous month) 70

60

change 50 -

40

30

20 Index, 50 = no 10 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

London UK

GLASource Economics IHS Markit 12

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London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Indicator 9: PMI Employment Index for London and the UK

In May,Title the PMIIn Employment May, the PMI E Indexmployment recovered Index recovered slightly slightly zz The Employment Index for London rose to 30.8 in May after a fall between February (52.9) and April (23.6) – this representedBullets the• deepestThe Employment registered monthly Index for drop London of the rose series. to 30.8 in May after a fall between zz The index also increasedFebruary for (52.9)the UK andfrom April 26.4 (23.6)in April – to this 32.1 represented in May. the deepest registered zz The PMI Employmentmonthly Index drop shows of thethe netseries balance -. of private sector firms of the monthly change in employment. Readings above• 50.0The suggests index also an increasedincrease, whereasfor the UK a reading from 26.4 below in April indicates to 32.1 a decrease in May. in employment from the previous month.• The PMI Employment Index shows the net balance of private sector firms of the monthly change in employment. Readings above 50.0 suggests an Source: IHS Markit increase, whereas a reading below indicates a decrease in employment from Latest release: June 2020,the Next previous release: month. July 2020

Chart PMI Employment Index (50 indicates no change on previous month) 65 60 55 change

- 50 45 40 35 30 25 Index, 50 = no 20

Indicator 10: RICS houseJan-97 pricesJan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 forJan-01 LondonJan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 andJan-05 Jan-06 EnglandJan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 andJan-11 WalesJan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 London UK

Title The fall in the net balance of house prices continued in the three months to May The fallSource in the netIHS Markitbalance of house prices continued in the three months to May Bullets • In the three months to May, the net balance of property surveyors reporting a zz In Latestthe three monthsJune 2020to May, the net balance of property surveyors reporting a rise in house prices was -57, down release rise in house prices was -57 – down from 11 in March and -24 in April -, the from 11 in Marchlowest and -24 figure in April, since the March lowest 2019. figure since March 2019. zz For England and Wales, the RICS house prices net balance index also decreased from 7 in the first quarter of the • For England and Wales, the RICS house prices net balance index also decreased yearNext to -22 in theJuly period 2020 February – April and to -32 in the three months to May. release from 7 in the first quarter of the year to -22 in the period February – April and zz The net balanceto index -32 measuresin the three the monthsproportion to Mayof property. surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a decline. File • WorksheetThe net balance 9 in Y:\ index0 Y Drive measures 2016\ the1 Macro proportion\LET\Data of property\LET Charts.xlsx surveyors reporting Source:location Royal Institution a rise of Chartered in prices Surveyors minus those reporting a decline. Latest release: June 2020, Next release: July 2020 Chart RICS house prices net balance (change in prices during next three months, seasonally adjusted) 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20

Net balance -40 -60 -80 -100 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

London England and Wales

GLASource Economics RICS Residential Market Survey 13

Latest June 2020 release

Next July 2020 release

File Worksheet 10 in Y:\0 Y Drive 2016\1 Macro\LET\Data\LET Charts.xlsx location

London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Indicator 11: RICS house price expectations for London and England and Wales

Title Negative expectations on house price rises in London remain but reverted slightly Negative expectationsin May on house price rises in London remain but reverted slightly in May zz Between March and May, surveyors reported expectations of a further contraction in London house prices (-67). BulletsHowever, this• representsBetween anMarch increase and compared May, stour -82veyors in the reported three months expectations to March. of a further zz Sentiment in Englandcontraction and Wales in London was -43 hous in May,e price also ( up-67 from). However, -73 in April. this represents an increase zz The net balancecompared index measures to -8 2the in proportionthe three monthsof property to Marchsurveyors. reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a •decline. Sentiment in England and Wales was -43 in May, also up from -73 in April. Source: Royal Institution• The of net Chartered balance Surveyors index measures the proportion of property surveyors reporting Latest release: June 2020,a rise Next in prices release: minus July 2020 those reporting a decline. Chart RICS house prices expectations net balance (change in prices during next three months, seasonally adjusted) 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20

Net balance -40 -60 -80 -100

Indicator 12: ConsumerJan-00 confidenceJan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 inJan-05 LondonJan-06 Jan-07 andJan-08 theJan-09 Jan-10 UKJan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 London England and Wales Title In June, consumer confidence in London recovered part of the fall in April and May InSource June, consumerRICS Residential confidence Market in LondonSurvey recovered part of the fall in April and May Bullets • The consumer confidence index in London was at -14 in June after having zzLatestThe consumer June confidence 2020registered index a bigin Londonfall between was at March-14 in andJune Mayafter (fromhaving 2 registeredto -26). Junea big stillfall between March and releaseMay (from 2 to -26).represent June still the represents lowest level one in of seven the lowest years. levels in seven years. zz In June, the sentiment• In June, for the the UK sentiment remained for lower the UKthan bounced in London back (-30) less stronglyfrom May than (-36). in London The UK has not shown a Nextpositive indexJuly score 2020 -since - 30 inJanuary June from 2016. -36 in May -. The UK has not shown a positive index score zzreleaseThe GfK index of consumersince January confidence 2016. reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year• andThe in GfK the nextindex 12 of months. consumer A score confidence above zero reflects suggests people’s positive views opinions; on their a score below zero Fileindicates negativeWorksheet sentiment.financial 11 in position Y:\0 Y andDrive the 2016 general\1 Macroeconomy\LET ove\r Datathe past\LET year Charts.xlsx and in the next location 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero Source: GfK NOP on behalfindicates of the European negative Commission sentiment. Latest release: June 2020, Next release: July 2020 Chart Consumer confidence barometer 30 20 10 0 -10 Index -20 -30 -40 -50

London UK

GLA EconomicsSource GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission 14

Latest May 2020 release

Next June 2020 release

File Worksheet 12 in Y:\0 Y Drive 2016\1 Macro\LET\Data\LET Charts.xlsx location

London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

GLA’s First Adult Education Budget Data Publication By Melisa Wickham, Supervisory Economist, Audrey Baker, Senior Data Analyst, and Héctor Espinoza, Economist

The Adult Education Budget (AEB), which was devolved in August 2019 to the GLA, funds education and training for adults aged 19 and above. In line with the Mayor’s vision and objectives, a range of data about the AEB programme will be published quarterly in order to ensure transparency, engage stakeholders, and support learners and employers to make more informed decisions. In this article, GLA Economics presents key aspects, caveats and findings of the first AEB data release (June 2020), plus what to expect in future publications.

Background Information From 1 August 2019, the Secretary of State for Education delegated responsibility for the commissioning, delivery, and management of London’s Adult Education Budget (AEB)1 to the Mayor of London. In early 2020, the AEB Mayoral Board agreed that AEB programme data should be published on a quarterly basis - following the Department for Education’s Further Education and Skills data publication and in line with the UK Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

GLA’s first AEB data release GLA Economics published AEB data for the first time on 12 June 20202. This release, based on administrative education records3, includes London level data and presents provisional, reported to date figures for the first two quarters of the 2019/20 academic year. It should be noted that in-year data is subject to a data lag and future reconciliation. They should be treated with caution and as provisional estimates. In this context, only the final year data will provide the most comprehensive picture of delivery. Below we show some headline statistics of the programme, such as AEB participation (learners and aims), demographic characteristics of the learners, course levels and subject areas, and some of the Mayoral areas of interest.

1 The AEB funds education and training for adults aged 19 and above. 2 Data tables and further information are available here: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gla-adult-education-budget 3 R06 (August-January) Individualised Learner Records (ILR) data, Funding Claims (August-January), and Funding Summary Report (FSR R06) GLA Economics 15 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Figure A1: Learner participation by borough, August to January 2019/20 Source: R06 (August-January) ILR data Note: Figures are based on learner’s home postcode on the learning start date and excludes records without a valid postcode. The number of learners by Borough described in brackets.

In academic year 2019/20 (August-January data), there were 162,700 learners and 281,600 aims enrolments4. Figure A1 shows how adult learners participating in GLA-funded further education are distributed across boroughs in London. Pre COVID-19 data shows that the AEB programme has reached all areas in London with sizable numbers. In absolute terms, the London boroughs showing higher volumes of learners (colour dark blue in Figure A1) are Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth, Lewisham, Croydon, Haringey and Brent.

4 In monetary terms, the AEB delivery to date in the first two quarters of academic year 2019/20 reached £118,894,900. This contrasts with some of the other monetary estimates in the published tables on the proportion of funding to date for adult skills which GLA Economics have produced. These estimates are based solely on the SILR, which contains funding calculated by the ESFA’s funding formula for Adult Skills (FM35) learners. This includes formula programme and learning support funding. It does not include any Earnings Adjustment Statement (EAS) Claims or learner support in the Funding Claim that may be associated with Adult Skills provision. Full details are provided in the notes of the published tables. It should be noted that this data refers to provisional in-year data. This does not present estimates of the GLA liabilities to date and shouldn’t be considered a financial statement. GLA payments are in accordance with the Standard National Profile for AEB Grant- Funded Providers and final reconciliation applies at the end of the academic year subject to the arrangements agreed by the Mayor for that year. For more information on grant and procured payment and reconciliation processes please see: https://www.london.gov.uk/ what-we-do/skills-and-employment/skills-londoners/adult-education-budget/information-gla-aeb-providers#acc-i-57898

GLA Economics 16 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020 Figure A2: Demographic characteristics Figure A2: Demographic characteristics

Source: R06 R06 (August-January) (August-January) ILR data ILR data Note: Age is based on learner’s age on 31st August of the academic year. Employment status prior to enrolment is based on st Nself-declarationote: Age is bybased the learner, on learner’s as reported age in the on Individualised 31 August Learner of the Record academic (ILR). This year. variable Employment is an indicative status measure prior to enrolmentof employment is statusbased but on is notself sufficient-declaration to adequately by the deduce learner, whether as reporteda person is inemployed, the Individualised unemployed, or Learnereconomically Record (ILR).inactive, This since variablethe full suite is ofan contextual indicative questions measure needed of to employmentdo so are not asked. statu Further,s but thisis notdata sufficientis not required to for adequately learners deduceenrolled only whether in Community a person Learning. is employed,Learning difficulty unemployed, and/or disability or economically and/or health probleminactive, is based since on theself-declaration full suite byof contextualthe learner. questions needed to do so are not asked. Further, this data is not required for learners enrolled onlyFigure in A2Co mmunityshows some Learning demographic. Learning characteristics difficulty and/or of the disabilityAEB learners. and/or Of the health 162,710 problem participants is based in on the self - declarationfirst two quarters by the oflearner 2019/20:.

Figurezz 71% A were2 shows female; some demographic characteristics of the AEB learners. Of the 162,710 participants in thezz 56%first weretwo quarters from a Black of 2019/ or Minority20: Ethnic background (including Mixed, Asian, Black and Other Ethnic Group learners)5 and 44% were from White background; o 71 per cent were female; zz 11% were 56 aged per cent19-23, were 60% from aged a 24-49,Black or and Minority 29% 50+; Ethnic background (including Mixed, Asian, Black o 5 zz 15% considerand Other themselves Ethnic to Group have alearners) learning difficultyand 44 per and/or cent weredisability from and/or White healthbackground; problem; 11 per cent were aged 19-23, 60 per cent aged 24-49, and 29 per cent 50+; zz In Adulto Skills learning, 51% of providers received the disadvantage uplift funding6; o 15 per cent consider themselves to have a learning difficulty and/or disability and/or health zz 5% receivedproblem learner; support7. In Adult Skills learning, 51% of providers received the disadvantage uplift funding6; o 7 o 5 per cent received learner support .

5 The percentage calculation for the Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) and “Learner’s disability, learning difficulty and/or health problem” (LLDD) measures here are based on excluding instances of unknown ethnicity and unknown learning difficulty/disability. 6 Disadvantage funding does not apply to Community Learning, so only Adult Skills learning is included. 75 TheseThe percentage are learners calculation who are for reported the Black, to Asian receive and theMinority types Ethnic of learner (BAME) support and “Learner’s included disability, in the GLA's learning AEB difficulty funding and/or rules health (https://www.london.gov.uk/whatproblem” (LLDD) measures here are based-we- do/skillson excluding-and instances-employment/skills of unknown -ethnicitylondoners/adult and unknown-education learning- budget/informationdifficulty/disability. - gla6 Disadvantage-aeb-providers funding). does not apply to Community Learning, so only Adult Skills learning is included. 7 These are learners who are reported to receive the types of learner support included in the GLA’s AEB funding rules (https://www. london.gov.uk/what-we-do/skills-and-employment/skills-londoners/adult-education-budget/information-gla-aeb-providers).

GLA Economics 17 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020 Table A1: AEB provision by funding model (i.e. Adult Skills or Community Learning) and level Table A1: AEB Aims Enrolments provision by funding Level Adult Skills Community Learning model (i.e. Adult Entry Level 88,000 5,590 Skills or Community Level 1 46,490 1,160 Learning) and level Level 2 48,650 1,040 Source: R06 (August-January) Level 3 3,330 * ILR data Level 4+ * * Note: Levels are based on the Other Level 20 87,360 notional NVQ level version Total 186,490 95,150 two Source: R06 (August-January) ILR data Table A1 shows that in the first two quarters of the 2019/20 academic year, there were 186,490 and 95,150Note: enrolments Levels are inbased GLA-funded on the notional Adult SkillsNVQ leveland versionCommunity two Learning courses, respectively. The aim level composition differs between Adult Skills and Community Learning. Adults Skills delivery range is Table A1 shows that in the first two quarters of the 2019/20 academic year, there were 186,490 and concentrated95,150 enrolments between inEntry GLA Level-funded and Adult Level Skills 3, while and CommunityCommunity Learning Learning course tendss, to respectively. be concentrated The aim at Other Levellevel (i.e. composition level not applicable). differs between This suggestsAdult Skills complementarities and Community Learning.between theAdults two Skills streams delivery and rangethat Adult is Skillsconcentrated and Community between Learning Entry mightLevel andbe cateringLevel 3, whilefor different Community learners Learning and needstends toin beLondon. concentrated at Other Level (i.e. level not applicable). This suggests complementarities between the two streams and that Adult Skills and Community Learning might be catering for different learners andFigure needs A3:in London. Participation (aims) CommunityFigure Learning A3: Participation (aims) by Subject Sector Area and funding model (i.e.by AdultSubject Skills Sector or Area Community Learning) and funding model (i.e. Adult Skills or Adult Skills Community Learning) Source: R06 (August-January) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ILR data Preparation for Life and Work Health, Public Services and Care Note: Sector Subject Areas are Business, Administration and Law Languages, Literature and Culture based on Sector Subject Areas Arts, Media and Publishing Information and Communication Technology Tier 1 Retail and Commercial Enterprise Science and Mathematics Construction, Planning and the Built Environment Education and Training Leisure, Travel and Tourism Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care Social Sciences History, Philosophy and Theology

The analysis by Sector Subject Area suggests that some courses are more popular than others. Figure A3 shows that ‘Preparation for Life and Work’, ‘Health, Public Services and Care’, ‘Business, Administration and Source:Law’, ‘Languages, R06 (August Literature-January) andILR data Culture’, ‘Arts, Media and Publishing’, and ‘Information and Communication Technology’ are the most popular subjects. However, some differences are found by Note: Sector Subject Areas are based on Sector Subject Areas Tier 1 funding model. Overall, more than 50 per cent of the aims in Adults Skills are classified under the category ‘PreparationThe analysis for byLife S ectorand Work’, Subject while Area subjectssuggests inthat Community some courses Learning are more are popular to some than extent others. more Figure evenly distributed.A3 shows that ‘Preparation for Life and Work’, ‘Health, Public Services and Care’, ‘Business, Administration and Law’, ‘Languages, Literature and Culture’, ‘Arts, Media and Publishing’, and ‘Information and Communication Technology’ are the most popular subjects. However, some differences are found by funding model. Overall, more than 50 per cent of the aims in Adults Skills are

GLA Economics 18 classified under the category ‘Preparation for Life and Work’, while subjects in Community Learning are to some extent more evenly distributed. London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

Mayoral areas of interest

MayoralAEB data tables areas also include of informationinterest about English and Maths (basic skills) and British Sign Language AEBcourse datas. tables also include information about English and Maths (basic skills) and British Sign Language courses.Table A2: English and Maths (Entitlements) Table A2: English and Portion of Maths (Entitlements) Learner Aims Funding to Entitlement Level Participation Enrolments Date for Adult Source: R06 (August-January) Skills ILR data English Entry Level 6,800 7,550 £3,628,000 Note: Entitlement learning Level 1 4,110 4,240 £1,673,000 is learning taken as part of Level 2 6,620 6,710 £2,868,000 the legal entitlements to full Total 17,270 18,490 £8,170,000 funding for eligible adult Maths Entry Level 6,820 7,130 £4,485,000 learners for English and Level 1 4,140 4,210 £1,651,000 Maths and Level 2 and Level Level 2 6,340 6,430 £2,826,000 3 learning8. Levels are based Total 16,990 17,770 £8,962,000 on the notional NVQ level Total 25,630 36,260 £17,132,000 version two Source: R06 (August-January) ILR data

EnglishNote: Entitlement and Maths learning Entitlement is learning taken as part of the legal entitlements to full funding for eligible Basicsadult skills, learners such for English as English and Maths and andMaths Level skills 2 and are Level essential 3 learning in8. Levelsenabling are based people on theto notionalfunction in society and NVQ level version two progress in learning and employment. Table A2 shows, in total, 25,630 learners participated in 36,260 courses.English and Maths Entitlement Basics skills, such as English and Maths skills are essential in enabling people to function in society and Britishprogress Sign in learning Language and employment. Table A2 shows, in total, 25,630 learners participated in 36,260 courses. From August 2019 to January 2020, 310 people participated in British Sign Language courses9. British Sign Language LearnersFrom August in receipt 2019 to January of low 2020, wage 310 people participated in British Sign Language courses9.

DataLearners on learners in receipt in of receipt low wage of low wage will be published in subsequent releases as the GLA is currently reconcilingData on learners in-year in receiptnumbers of low and wage related will be statistics. published in subsequent releases as the GLA is currently reconciling in-year numbers and related statistics. Further breakdowns (e.g. achievements) and more information about Mayoral areas of interest are available Further breakdowns (e.g. achievements) and more information about Mayoral areas of interest are in https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gla-adult-education-budgetavailable in https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gla-adult-education-budget

Next8 See the Steps GLA's Adult Education Budget funding rules for further information on entitlements A more(https://www.london.gov.uk/what complete set of statistics,-we-do/skills including-and-employment/skills sub-regional-londoners/adult and Borough-education figures,-budget/information is expected- to be published in gla-aeb-providers) and the methodology note for details on how entitlement learning has been identified. the9 subsequentThe GLA fully fund quarterly any learner aged releases, 19+ whose starting first or preferred with languagethe third is British quarter Sign Language 2019/20 (BSL), academic or who cannot year publication. access spoken language because of their deafness and would benefit from BSL, to study for qualifications in BSL, up to and Furthermore,including level 2. data releases based on R10 (first three quarters) and R14 (final year) ILR data will provide a more comprehensive representation of (GLA funded) FE achievements10 and delivery to date (£) in London. Data on learners in receipt of low wage will be also published in subsequent releases as the GLA is currently reconciling in-year numbers and related statistics.

8 See the GLA’s Adult Education Budget funding rules for further information on entitlements (https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we- do/skills-and-employment/skills-londoners/adult-education-budget/information-gla-aeb-providers) and the methodology note for details on how entitlement learning has been identified. 9 The GLA fully fund any learner aged 19+ whose first or preferred language is British Sign Language (BSL), or who cannot access spoken language because of their deafness and would benefit from BSL, to study for qualifications in BSL, up to and including level 2. 10 Achievements are not shown here. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a significant number of FE learners (+50%) have not completed their courses by January 2020, and therefore are currently classified under category ‘study continuing’ in the ILR data.

GLA Economics 19 London’s Economy Today • Issue 214 • June 2020

WeOur publish regularlylatest on the state publications of London’s economy, providing the latest economic data for London and interpret how this may affect policy. This includes analysis of recent developments in London’s economy and forecasts for the next couple of years. We provide analysis on sectors of the economy including tourism, retail, housing, health, science, technology and more. We analyse recent developments in London’s labour market, by sector and borough. View all the GLA Economics publications on our website.

The Evidence Base for London’s Local Industrial Strategy - Final report This is the final report on the evidence base that is informing and supporting the development of London’s Local Industrial Strategy, following on from the interim report published in August 2019. It presents clear, robust and comprehensive evidence on London’s economy with a view to supporting the overall objective of achieving inclusive growth in London. It reports on London’s strengths, key constraints, issues and risks for the five foundations of productivity introduced by the Industrial Strategy White Paper (Business Environment, People, Infrastructure, Ideas and Place), while also highlighting the linkages between the economy of London and the rest of the UK. Download the full publication.

Transport expenditure in London This current issues note looks at the case for continuing transport expenditure in London. London spills over its administrative boundaries, and there are 2 million more people in it every day than its 8.8 million residents. The city relies on public transport, and so public investment – 58% of all journeys on public transport in Britain are at least in part in London. People make far more use of public transport than elsewhere in the country, and increasingly so. Download the full publication.

London’s Economic Outlook: Autumn 2019 GLA Economics’ 35th London forecast suggests that: zz London’s GVA growth rate is forecast to be 1.8% in 2019. The growth rate is expected to decrease to 1.1% in 2020, before increasing to 1.8% in 2021. zz London is forecast to see increases in the number of workforce jobs in 2019, 2020 and 2021. zz London’s household income and spending are both forecast to increase over the next three years. Download the full publication.

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London’s Economy Today is published towards the end of every month. It provides an overview of the current state of the London economy, and a selection of the most up-to-date data available. It tracks cyclical economic conditions to ensure they are not moving outside the parameters of the underlying assumptions of the GLA group.

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About GLA Economics GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London’s economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics provide a sound basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit was set up in May 2002.