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October No Time to Stop Watching for Storms Updated: 11:43 A.M

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October No Time to Stop Watching for Storms Updated: 11:43 A.M October no time to stop watching for storms Updated: 11:43 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 | Posted: 8:00 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 By Kimberly Miller - Palm Beach Post Staff Writer South Florida breezed through the statistical peak of this year’s hurricane season with nary a scratch and only one mad dash for bottled water when Tropical Storm Erika seemed intent on an August visit. But while Sept. 10 is marked as the height of the Atlantic hurricane season, October is the true pinnacle for Florida, with more landfalls than any other month in the six-month storm stretch. Between 1851 and 2014, 23 October hurricanes have trekked across South Florida, or taken a swipe at the Keys. That’s compared to 17 in September, 13 in August and two in both June and July, according to an analysis by Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. A single November hurricane was recorded, “September is when most of the really strong hurricanes hit, but October is when the most hurricanes of any intensity have hit,” McNoldy said. “During October, not only are we more likely to get a hurricane than during any other month, they typically will come from the south or southwest, not from the east.” These so-called “backdoor storms” often brew up in the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico in October as opposed to the eastern tropical Atlantic, which is a more typical hurricane incubator early in the season. This year, strong westerly wind shear fortified by a brawny El Nino cut down most of the tropical waves exiting western Africa before they could become hurricanes. One exception was Hurricane Joaquin, a formidable storm that reached Category 4 strength after hitting a weak spot in the shear. The storm, which became a hurricane Sept. 30, devastated southern Bahamian islands, sunk the 33-crewmember El Faro cargo ship, and made it within 500 miles of Florida’s east coast before sparing it with an abrupt turn north. “October can be fickle,” said Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist and hurricane expert with the Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather. “But the conditions in the tropics usually don’t settle down until the end of the month.” As the summer season turns to fall, upper-level winds shift and tropical waves find more hospitable places to grow in the warm waters of the Caribbean. From there, steering winds take them north or northwest toward Florida. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was a backdoor storm that began as a tropical depression Oct. 15 in the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica. It crashed into Florida south of Naples on Oct. 24 as a Category 3 hurricane packing 120 mph winds. Within hours, it ripped through Palm Beach County and exited near Jupiter. In 1964, Hurricane Isbell spun up on Oct. 13 and followed almost the exact same track as Wilma, cutting into Florida near Everglades City and leaving just south of Jupiter. But not all late season storms that hit South Florida come from the west. Hurricane King became a Category 1 storm on Oct. 16, 1950 south of Cuba. King crossed Cuba, gained strength, and hit near Miami as a Category 4 with 132 mph winds, according to National Hurricane Center archives. “Even though we are in the second half of hurricane season, it doesn’t mean that we are winding down,” said Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. “The Sept. 10 peak data can be misinterpreted as meaning that our local tropical threat diminishes after this date, when, in fact, history shows that we’ve been hit by more hurricanes after Sept. 10 versus before.” Meteorologists say it’s human nature after four months on high hurricane alert to feel like the storm threat diminishes in October. But that’s a wrong assumption. “People tend to let their guard down in October, but by far it can still be a dangerous month, especially for Florida,” Kottlowski said. As of late last week, Kottlowski was watching a weak low pressure system in the Gulf for signs of it becoming something more. He didn’t give it much of a chance, but he’s wasn’t counting it out entirely. “There will be a heck of a fight going on late next week in that area,” Kottlowski said. “But we’ve had a low pressure system there multiple times and nothing has happened because they’ve all been sheared to death.” .
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