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Storms Surging: Building Resilience in Extreme Weather

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ALLIANZ GLOBAL CORPORATE & SPECIALTY® STORMS SURGING BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER Hurricane seen from space. Source: 3dmotus / Shutterstock.com HURRICANE REPORT 2020 STORMS SURGING: BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER Hurricane approaching tropical island coastline. Source: Ryan DeBerardinis / Shutterstock.com The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as TOP 10 COSTLIEST HURRICANES IN THE UNITED STATES2 well as the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, have all increased ($ millions) since the early 1980s. Hurricane-associated flooding and rainfall rates Rank Date Location Hurricane Estimated insured loss In 2018 dollars3 are projected to rise. Models project a slight decrease in the annual Dollars when occurred number of tropical cyclones, but an increase in the number of the 1 August 25-30, 2005 AL, FL, GA, LA, MS, TN Hurricane Katrina $41,100 $51,882 strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes going forward1. 2 September 19-22, 2017 PR, USVI Hurricane Maria4 $25,000-30,000 $25,600-30,700 3 September 6-12, 2017 AL, FL, GA, NC, PR, SC, UV Hurricane Irma4 $22,000-27,000 $22,500-27,600 4 August 25-Sep. 1, 2017 AL, LA, MS, NC, TN, TX Hurricane Harvey4 $18,000-20,000 $18,400-20,400 5 October 28-31, 2012 CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH, Hurricane Sandy $18,750 $20,688 NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, VT, WV 6 August 24-26, 1992 FL, LA Hurricane Andrew $15,500 $25,404 7 September 12-14, 2008 AR, IL, IN, KY, LA, MO, OH, PA, TX Hurricane Ike $12,500 $14,631 WILL 2020 BE ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR? 8 October 10-12, 2018 AL, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA Hurricane Michael4 $8,000-13,000 $8,000-13,000 9 October 24, 2005 FL Hurricane Wilma $10,300 $13,002 Allianz Global Corporate Specialty (AGCS) Companies must consider the full spectrum of risks Catastrophe Risk Management details factors associated with extreme weather, such as 10 August 13-14, 2004 FL, NC, SC Hurricane Charley $7,475 $9,729 leading to above average predictions for the 2020 operational, reputational and regulatory impacts, Source: Insurance Information Institute, Facts + Statistics: Hurricanes, 2020 hurricane season. The Hurricane Outlook 2020 in addition to increased property damage from report compiles analysis from several natural catastrophes. Resilience requires meteorological organizations predicting 14 to 18 corrective action and investment, but also brings tropical storms. An above average season is opportunities for loss prevention solutions and indicated by seven to nine storms reaching adequate insurance coverage. hurricane strength and two to four becoming major hurricanes. The predicted numbers for For a detailed summary of predictions for the storms and hurricanes making landfall in the US upcoming hurricane season, download the AGCS 1 National Climate Assessment, Our Changing Climate, 2014 by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and AccuWeather are Catastrophe Risk Management report, Hurricane 2 Property losses only. Excludes flood damage covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program. Ranked on dollars above the norm. Outlook 2020, at www.agcs.allianz.com. when occurred. As of November 20, 2019. 3 Adjusted for inflation through 2018 by the Insurance Information Institute using the GDP implicit price deflator. 4 Insurance Information Institute estimate based on data from catastrophe risk modelers, reinsurance companies, the Property Claims Services unit of Verisk Analytics, the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. These estimates are preliminary because the organizations involved periodically resurvey the events, and the severity of losses and other factors create a high level of uncertainty surrounding the ultimate loss figures. 2 3 4 ++++ 8 ++ +++ STORMS SURGING: BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER + ++ ++ + 16 ++ + 28 ++ ++ ++ 7 12 7 + + + 3 14 13 + ++ + 13 13 + 2 ++ + 31 27 11 12 + + + + + + + 17 8 21 22++ 2 +30 5 18 19 17 15 23 6 3 28 10 24 14 18 16 9 5 8 14 17 26 1 26 18 2 16 24 1 25 13 19 27 4 21 7 19 5 17 11 15 23 27 11 23 10 3 1 9 12 31 30 2 1 14 22 6 15 30 26 22 6 3 2019 4 18 13 21 29 6 8 17 29 21 20 28 5 ANOTHER RECORD- 14 25 19 4 18 28 27 20 24 19 7 BREAKING YEAR 27 26 18 23 25 26 17 24 25 23 22 11 10 The 2019 hurricane season was above average in also brought winds and heavy rainfall to Coastal 24 12 magnitude. It was only the seventh season since Carolina before making landfall near Cape 4 the 1930s to rack up multiple Category 5s over the Hatteras. Lorenzo was noteworthy for being the Atlantic Basin. farthest east Category 5 storm in history, reaching NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE TRACKING CHART peak intensity southwest of the Azores off the 2019 With 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense coast of Portugal, and then moving across Major Hurricane Number Type Name Date hurricanes, and a seasonal ACE (Accumulated northwestern Ireland as an extratropical cyclone. 1 STS Andrea* May 20 - 21 Cyclone Energy) index of 129.8, 2019 was above Hurricane 2 H Barry* July 11 - 15 5 Tropical Storm 3 TS Chantal* August 21 - 23 average by many metrics. ACE charts The 2020 Allianz Risk Barometer – our annual 4 MH Dorian August 24 - September 7 approximate wind energy used by a tropical report detailing top corporate risks for the year – Tropical Depression 5 TS Erin* August 26 - 29 system over its lifetime and is calculated every six notes that increasing volatility of weather rises 6 TS Fernand September 3 - 4 Subtropical Storm 7 TS Gabrielle September 3 - 10 hours. 2019 was also the fourth consecutive year to its highest-ever position (17% of responses). Subtropical Depression 8 MH Humberto September 13 - 19 in which a category 5 storm developed in the The report highlights why weather volatility has 9 TS Imelda September 17 - 19 Atlantic basin—a new record. Across the board, the potential to trigger enormously unpredictable Wave / Low 10 H Jerry September 17 - 25 11 TS Karen September 22 - 27 24% more ACE was expended by storms in 2019. It loss scenarios for businesses and provides insights +++++++ Extratropical Storm 12 MH Lorenzo September 22 - October 2 also brought about one of the strongest Atlantic that should be at the core of all mitigation and 13 TS Melissa October 11 - 14 6 Position at 0000 UTC hurricane landfalls on record. resilience actions. According to more than 2,700 # 14 TS Nestor October 18 - 19 Position / date at 1200 UTC 15 TS Olga October 25 risk management experts across the globe, 16 H Pablo October 25 - 28 The ACE index is used by various agencies, growing costs of extreme weather events correlate # Storm Number 17 STS Rebekah October 30 - November 1 including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric with the fact that weather-related/flood loss 18 TS Sebastien November 19 - 24 Administration (NOAA) and the India events have increased by a factor of three to four Source: NOAA's National Hurricane Center Meteorological Department, to express activity of since 1980. both individual tropical cyclones and entire Losses from natural Slightly more Costliest event: A humanitarian tropical cyclone seasons. Seasonal ACE index is Last year, 820 natural catastrophes, including disasters in 2019 than a third of the Typhoon Hagibis tragedy: Cyclone Idai the sum of ACE indexes for each storm and takes tornadoes, hailstorms, floods, earthquakes, losses insured in Japan in Mozambique into account the number, strength, and duration of hurricanes and typhoons, caused overall losses of all tropical storms in the season. The highest ACE $150bn. While there were more significant calculated for a single storm in the Atlantic basin catastrophic events in previous years, 2019 7 since 1950 was 70.4, for Hurricane Ivan in 2004. delivered damaging events demonstrating a trend $ bn of higher losses. Clearly, such extreme weather $150bn $52bn 17 >1,000 (thereof insured: people killed Two category 5 storms (Dorian and Lorenzo) were conditions imperil factories and other assets, as ~$10bn) each exceptionally long-lived. These two storms well as transport and energy links that tie an entire combined for more than 60% of 2019’s ACE. supply chain together. A smaller portion of losses, Dorian’s winds were among the strongest of any about $52bn, was insured when compared with Source: Munich Re, Tropical cyclones causing billions in losses dominate nat cat picture of 2019, 2020 (c) Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Atlantic hurricane in history before it made 2018. This was due in part to the high share of landfall in the Bahamas as a strong Category 5 flood losses which are often not insured to the same 5 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricanes and Tropical Storms - Annual 2019, 2019 storm and stalled for more than 24 hours. Dorian extent as wind damage. 6 Washington Post, Freak storms of 2019 Atlantic hurricane season left trail of destruction and revealed climate change fingerprints, December 4, 2019 7 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hurricanes and Tropical Storms - Annual 2004, 2004 4 5 STORMS SURGING: BUILDING RESILIENCE IN EXTREME WEATHER ‘HEAT ISLANDS’ BRING MORE RAIN CATEGORY 6? Recent research finds that climate-heated oceans HOW DORIAN MAY ALTER THE SCALE OF HURRICANES will increase rainfall from hurricanes and tropical Hurricane Dorian’s devastating impact on the storms. Hurricanes also appear to be slowing as Bahamas in 2019 was nothing like the Caribbean they move ashore, further increasing the potential had recently experienced. Dorian was the longest- for high rainfall and flooding. Sea surface stalling Category 5 hurricane since 1851, when temperatures are expected to rise 3°F in regions record-keeping began.
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