RIPON

JULY, 1971 VOL. VII, No. 7 ONE DOLLAR A Guide to Republican Insurgency

• Nixon's Swing Districts George F. Gilder r The Dumping of the President 1912-68 Howard L Reiter

• New Hampshire Primary Preview John C Topping

r·~~~l''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''~~~''''''·''''''''''''''''''''-'''''''''''''·'''''''''''''''''''''''''''~''''''''''''''''''''''''''''·''''''''''''''''''''''''~~~''''''''~·~~~·''''''''~''''''''''-'''''''''''''''~'''''''''''''l ~ PLUS: ~ t l t ~ On the R&D Gap Dr. Jeremy Stone ~ ~ OIC Success Story Senator J Caleb Boggs ~ ~ Fun City Blues Glenn S. Gerstell ~ L~ .. ~...... ~~~ ...... ~.-...... ~...... ~...... ~ ...... ~.~ ...... ~~~ ___ ...... ~...... _...... ~...... -.i SUMMARY OF CONTENTS THE RIPON SOCIETY INC. Is a Republican research and , policy organization whose members are young lousiness, academic and professional men and women. It has national headquarters In Cambridge, MassaClhusetts, chapters in thirteen cities, National Associate members throughout EDITORIAL the fifty states, and several affiliated groups of subchapter status. The Society is supported by chapter dues, individual contribu­ tions and revenues fr&m its publications and contract work. The "Thf' Lightweight Brigade" - a look at the Dem­ Society off",rs the following- options for annual ccmtributlon: Con­ ocrats. tributor $25 or more; Sustaine! $109 or more; Founcler $1009 or mere. Inquiries about membershilO and chapter organization should be addressed to the National Executive Director. NATIONAL GOVEBNlNG BOAJlJ) POLITICAL NOTES --4 Officers "Howard F. Gillette, Jr., President "Josiah Lee Auspitz, Chairman of the Executive Committee "Howard L. Reiter, Vice President "Robert L. Beal. Treasurer STATE SPOTLIGHT "R. Quincy White, Jr., Secretary Boston Philadelphia Glenn S. GersteD turns the harsh glare on New York "Martha Reardon "Richard R. Block Martin A. Linsky Robert J. Moss budgeting theatrics, Lindsay, Rockefeller and the entire Michael W. Christian Herbert Hutton state legislature limped to new heights of hyperbole, Cambridge Pittsburgh threat and vicious insult throughout the negotiations. The "Joel P. Greene "Leah Thayer Will Moffat James Groninger result? A bigger budget and higher taxes. Everyone who Craig Stewart Stan Sienkiewicz does not . live in Fun City will be that much happier next Chicago Seattle April 15th. -9 "R. Quincy White, Jr. 'Martin H. Sours Paul F. Anderson Dick Dykeman Harold S. Russel! Tom Alberg Dallas "Neil D. Anderson Washington Howard L. Abramson ·Stephen E. Herbits WASHINGTON VIEWPOINT Robert A. Wilson Albert C. Ely Detroft Patricia A. Goldman "Ralph J. Heikkinen Pentagon-stimulated headlines have been crying Stephen Selander At Large about a new "technology gap" between the U.S. and the Stephen Stockmeyer "·Christopher T. Bayley Soviet Union. Dr. Jeremy Stone, Director of the Federa­ Hartford Mark Bloomfield tion of American Scientists, discusses a Federation study 'Nlcholas Norton Ralph Caprio Stewart H. McConaughy Richard M. Conley that refutes DOD's conclusions and calls into question its WilUam J. McKinney, Jr. Christopher DeMuth rather cavalier use of certain facts and figures. _11 Los Angeles Bruce D. Fraser 'Michael Halliwell Emil H. Frankel Thomas A. Brown Paul Leach Edward McAnUf ""Lee W. Huebner Phll!p C. Johnston New Haven William J. Ialberg GUEST EDITORIAL "Hayward L. Draper ••J. Eugene Marans Deke Karzon Martha McCahill United States Senator J. Caleb Boggs, Republican of Peter Baugher Thomas E. Petri New York "John R. Price, Jr. Delaware, writes about orc. orc is Opportunities In­ 'Werner lCuhn Clair W. Rodgers, Jr. dustrialization Centers, a more than modestly successful, Richard Rahn " "John S. Saloma III privately generated, job training program. Senator Boggs' Richard Zimmer Frank E .Samuel, Jr. Opportunities Industrialization Assistance Act, which Ex-Officio At Large provides funds for expanding orc, could bolster the less .. ·Robert D. Behn. National Executive Director th'ln fruitful Federal efforts in manpower training. -12 Evelyn F. Ellis, Editor of the Bipon FORUM George Gilder, Editor of the Bipon FORUM Daniel J. Swillinger, National Political Director Christopher W. Beal, Policy Chairman ··Peter J. Wallison, Finance Chairman 'National Executive Committee Member A GUIDE TO REPUBLICAN INSURGENCY ··Past President, Chairman of the Board, or Chairman of the Executive Committee In three parts: 1) "The Dumping of the President, 1912-68" traces presidential fortunes beyond the first term THE RIPON FORUM is published semi-monthJy by the Ripon Society, Inc., 140 Eliot Street, throughout American history. You will be surprised to Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138. Second class postage rates paid at see that very few Presidents have coasted comfortably Boston, Massachusetts. Contents are copyrighted (ill 1971 by the into a second term. Howard L. Belter admits that out­ Ripon Society, Inc. Correspondence addressed to the Editor Is right dumps are scarce, but serious "dump" movements welcomed. In publishing this magazine the Ripon Society seeks to provide are a good indication of which way the wind is blowing. a forum for fresh irieas, well-researched proPOsars and for a spirit II) "New Hampshire Primary Preview" by John Topping of criticism, Innovation, and independent thinking within the Re­ is just that: the GOP outlook in the Granite State, terri­ publican Party. Articles do not n ..cessar!ly represent the opinion tory with a history of extraordinary pro-Nixon leanings. of the National Governing Board or the Editorial Bocm:I of the ill) "Nixon's Swing Districts" by George F. GUder tells Ripon Society, unless they are explicitly so labelled. the President how he can make the McCloskey challenge SUBSCRIPTION RATES are $10 a year, $5 for students, service­ unnecessary. Two highly significant Congressional Dis­ men, and for Peace Corps, Vista and other volunteers. Overseas tricts point to the possibility of a more promising political air mail, $10 extra. Advertising rates on request. approach than the GOP's current binge of ideological pur­ Editors: Evelyn F. Ell!s, George GUder. ification and morbid introversion. -14 TeclmleaI Editorl John Woodman. Contributorsl Christopher W. Beal, Duncan K. Foley, Douglas Mat­ thews, William D. Phelan, Jr., David Omar White. Circulation Dept.: Judith H. Behn. Correspondents Glenn S. Gerstel!, New York 14A ELIOT STREET -19 Stephanie McConaughy, Conn. Deryl Howard, North CCII'OHncz Mrs. Barbara: M09n~y, Conn. Henri Pell Junod, Ohio Mike Ha11Iwell, CtrIIfornfa WUUam K. Woods, Ohio CALIFORNIA CORNER James F. McCollum, Jr., FIorldcz Stephen Jones, OklClhoma Michael McCrexy, tdcrho Eric R. Blackledge, Oregon How lobbyists get what they want in the California Ben Violette, Dlinols Richard Ober, Jr., Pemusylvcmicr state legislature - and how they could be stymied. Spe­ J. Kenneth Doka, Indiana Donato Andre D'Andrea, JL I. cial interests operate through a mix of closed committee C.R. Connell, Iowa Bruce M. Selya, Bhode Island hearings, large campaign contributions and sympathetic Eric Karnes, Xentucky Harris Beach, Jr., So. Ccuolincl WUlIam A. Merrill, Mass. Stanford M. Adelstein, S. D. committee chairmen. Old Guard Democrats have been James Harrington, Mcrine Dru Sinlth, 'fenneaGe particularly fiagrant in offering sympathy for emolument. Cratg W. Ellison, Michigan Patrick W. Dunn, Vermont Michael HallIwell hypothesizes a coalition of middle­ Arthur F. McClure, n, MIssouri Robert R. Murdoch, Vlrgbda William Harding, Nebrcmka: Fred O'Brien, West Virglnlcr income taxpayers and the disadvantaged that could help Charles O. Ingraham, New York W. Stuart Parsons, WiSConsIn defeat the 014 Guard stranglehold and restore a little open democracy to the legislature. -20 EDITORIAL THE LIGHTWEIGHT BRIGADE favor, however, that Carswell's unfitness was not H. 1. Mencken once described Presidential clear enough to be immediately evident to Senator politics as the quest of "boobs" for "boobissimus" Muskie, the leading Democrat. - the superlative boob. As the host of 1972 Dem­ What is clear to Senator Muskie is that what ocratic candidates approach, in a multi-million dol­ Washingron needs today to meet the crisis of the lar charge of the light-weight brigade, flickering times is creation of more commissions and study down the tube into the living rooms of the land, groups. Like Senator Hughes, both Bayh and Mus­ it occurs to us that an equally good idiom would kie make up for their deficiencies in vision and be "tubissimus." Slick TV cosmetics have become conviction with a grandiloquent forensic style and as serious a threat to an edifying democratic process with what is considered a good image: tubissimus. as the mindless demagoguery attacked by Mencken. Senator McGovern is a more opinionated figure In any case it seems timely now to appraise than any of the others and is thus considered a the field of contenders in both categories of political sure loser. He should not be excluded so easily flimflam. Readers are warned, however, that the from the tubestakes, however; for he displays a competition is more intense than usual this year "can you top this" leftism so mechanically predict­ and that in a contest of profiles and postures pub­ able that people may stop listening to what he lic fancies will shift rapidly - from the boyish says and begin responding to his profile, voice, and charm to the resonant baritone, or from the law other assets on the tube. Moreover, his proposal to and order pitch to the populist "compassion." cut the defense budget is half in one year shows For example, as Republicans it pains us to real boobissimus potential - perhaps comparable observe at the outset the sudden deflation of Vice to that of Senator Jackson, a defense "expert" so President Agnew, the overwhelming leader in the gullible that he backed the ABM, even though it boobstakes during most of 1969 and 1970. As will not be built in Seattle. we go to press the Vice President seems to have What more can one say of the two likely post been lost to the silent majority. Since the President, entries, Hubert Humphrey and Edward Kennedy? meanwhile, has long withdrawn from the. race in Humphrey's only original idea in a decade was that order to pursue serious goals in international rela­ 1968 was a good year to try a "politics of joy." tions, we are forced to concede the field to the Dem­ Kennedy's most remarkable notion is that his two ocrats - at least for 1971, if not for 1972 as well. brothers, in their highly pragmatic political careers, And in all partisan candor, we must admit left him a legacy of "idears" worthy of perpetuation that the Democratic array excells in boobissimus through the 1970's. One concludes that Nixon's potential any Republican offering since 1964. likely Democratic opposition may make it easy to Among the leading Democratic contenders, for remain a Republican in 1972. instance, is Senator Harold Hughes, whose chief We believe, moreover, that Mencken's theories virtues as a candidate for President (one learns this are profoundly wrong in terms of current realities. seriously from enthralled male admirers) are a Concepts of "boobissimus" and "tubissimus," based virile voice, a manly indignation, and experience as on contempt for the voters, remain fashionable a truck-driver. Senator Hughes also is said to be among many "sophisticated" politicos like the New big on ESP. As a Senator he has been negligible Leftists promoting Senator Hughes. But in fact the except on the issues of drugs and alcohol, which people increasingly expect their Presidential can­ comprise his chief area of expertise. Nonetheless didates to offer more than a cosmetic television he is a Presidential Candidate, with a grandstand image and more than demagogic sloganeering, smile and an orotund evangelism - a genuine whether from the left or right. This is the lesson threat as boobissimus. of Agnew's decline; and it was the lesson of the Another Democratic hopeful is Senator Birch 1968 Presidential campaign when Nixon tried to Bayh, whose chief credentials, one gathers, are a hold on with slick TV salesmanship during the Teamster's bankroll and early recognition of the months after the Convention. If the President has frailties of G. Harrold Carswell. Since Carswell's truly learned these lessons - and if he aggressive­ limitations were finally evident even to Senator ly carries through the best of his programs - he Hruska, Bayh's perceptions are not thereby shown will be able to overcome any imagery or demago­ to be dazzingly acute. It must be said in Bayh's guery the Democrats contrive.

3 of Republican candidate for President." Coupled with further resolutions criticizing Attorney General John Politieal Not,es Mitchell and allowing League officers to endorse Re­ publican candidates prior to a primary, the League action proved too much for some senior stalwarts. As rumors circulated that the entire League charter OH 10: a better choice might be revoked, National Young Republican Com­ mitteewoman Judy Petty, the only unopposed candidate at the convention, called a second convention, giving Ohio's Republican Senators, Robert Taft, Jr. and only 24 hours notice, thereby excluding most of the William B. Saxbe, have recommended John W. Kellogg College Republican faction. After repudiating most of to President Nixon for a vacancy on the U.S. Military the program of the authorized convention, the dissi­ Court of Appeals. dents elected a new slate of officers, retaining only The Ohioans' nomination was overshadowed by the Miss Petty, and passed a new set of resolutions. precipitate withdrawal of Senator Strom Thurmond's Most important, the rump session voted to break choice, former Representative Albert Watson. Watson up the League, first formed under the leadership of has been angling for a federal apointment elfer since former State Chairman Ed Allison, into three separate his racist (and unsuccessful) campaign for the South components - city-county, college and teen-age Re­ Carolina governorship last fall. Word of Watson's ten­ publicans. Though challenged by the excluded parti­ tative White House approval evoked immediate nega­ sans of the original convention, the decision appears tive reaction from civil rights groups and liberal Dem­ to have been upheld with the tacit endorsement of ocrats; the Wednesday Club, a group of approximately former Governor Winthrop Rockefeller who still pays 10 progressive GOP Senators, unanimously voiced its Miss Petty's salary. opposition and reportedly Senate GOP leaders Scott and The final compromise, which will split the delega­ Griffin urged Nixon to reconsider. The matter was quiet­ tion between factions for the national YR meeting in ly dropped. Phoenix, has apparently helped reactivate Win Rocke­ Kellogg, 50, a black city councilman in Cleveland feller though at the cost of disillusioning many college and a lawyer, is vice-chairman of the Cuyahoga County Republicans. Ironically enough, the maneuver followed Republican Party and was co-chairman of Senator Sax­ Ripon president Howard Gillette's keynote address to be's 1968 campaign in that county. the regular convention calling for an open Republican The court is the highest military tribunal in the party. country with cases going directly from that court to the U.S. Supreme Court. The man appointed will probab­ ly take his place on the bench just in time to hear the case of lieutenant William Calley. PHILADELPHIA: political vertigo

It had recently been rumored that former Con­ In the spring of 1967, Vice President Hubert H. gressman Watson would be nominated by President Humphrey infuriated liberal supporters by meeting Nixon for an opening on the Interstate Commerce Com­ Georgia's Governor Lester Maddox, putting his arm mission. In addition to the Military Court of Appeals around him, and declaring that the Democratic Party flap, Nixon had passed over Watson for two vacant was big enough for both of them. Humphrey later in­ Federal judgeships earlier this year. But on June 2, dicated that he had embraced Maddox only because the South Carolina Republican stated that he was not he had temporarily lost his footing. seeking and would not accept the ICC position. He Recently, when former Police Commissioner Frank declared that his only interest was his law practice Rizzo won the Democratic primary for mayor of and that he would accept no Federal position. Philadelphia on a tough law-and-order appeal, Hum­ The ICC job pays $38,000 a year. Sour grapes phrey telephoned Rizzo his congratulations. Another are expensive this year. temporary loss of balance?

ARKANSAS: y r league break-up OREGON: a difference in style

Over the last two years Arkansas' progressive Senator Mark Hatfield, who says he still has not Young Republican League has appeared increasingly decided -whether he will run again next year, may out of step not only with other state Young Repub­ face serious primary opposition if he does seek reelection. lican organizations, but the senior party in Arkansas Republican Governor Tom McCall, a moderate who as well. was elected to his second term last year, is seriously As long ago as May 1970 the Arkansas League considering making the race against Hatfield, although passed a resolution asking President Nixon to drop he would not make the final decision until early 1972. Spiro Agnew from the ticket. At their annual conven­ Hatfield was first elected 1"0 the Senate in 1966 after tion in Hot Springs May 7-9 the delegates, dominated two terms as governor. by College Republicans, reaffirmed their opposition to The McCall challenge would not be based on pol­ Vice President Agnew while adding a resolution urging icy differences with Hatfield, but rather on McCall's Paul McCloskey to enter as many primaries as possible dislike of Hatfield's style, coupled with McCall's feel­ and commending him for "his courage and initiative ing that he has done as much as possible on the state in presenting Republicans with an alternative choice level and is ready to move onto the national scene

4 in a more meaningful way. fice in 1969 on a pledge to veto any general tax in­ Only on the war does McCall strongly disagree crease. The Indiana General Assembly, controlled by with the Senator's stance, and that disagreement re­ a narrow Republican majority in each house, wrestled volves around how quickly the President is moving and with the tax issue into April and finally passed a tax how much discretion he should have, rather than on package which was labeled "Supertax" by the news whether the war should be ended. media. Hatfield, meanwhile, has begun early preparations Whitcomb, true to his word, vetoed the package, for a reelection campaign, mostly in the area of fund­ and the Republican delegation from Indianapolis-Marion raising. Though it does seem clear that he really has County provided him with the votes necessary to sustain not yet made the decision to run or not, the McCall the veto, correctly noting that the prime beneficiaries challenge may be the gauntlet which throws Oregon's of the tax package would have been rural dwellers; progressive Republican party into its bloodiest primary the cost would have been borne disproportionately by in many years. younger urban residents who frequently rent apartments The longer Hatfield lingers in deciding, the more and would not benefit from property tax relief. open he leaves himself to sniping from the right. Indeed, The inevitable result, however, is that Republican the progressive wing of the Oregon party cannot afford mayors, who presently control about two thirds of the a battle between its two strongest candidates, since state's 114 city halls, will take the blame for steadily whoever wins will be very vulnerable in the general increasing property tax rates, even though most of the election, particularly if the speculation in Oregon papers increase is due to skyrocketing educational costs which about Congresswoman Edith Green running for the are not a part of Indiana civil government. Senate becomes reality. Some of the most familiar faces will not be back And, the Republican right is all set to pick up the this year. Lloyd Allen, who served two terms as Mayor pieces after McCall and Hatfield destroy each other. of heavily Democratic South Bend and brought the City back to its feet after the catastrophic departure of Studebaker in the mid-sixties, is not running. Likewise, articulate Will Hays, Jr., son of the one­ TEXAS: lessons of history time Republican National Chairman, of Crawfordsville, personable Ralph VanNatta of Shelbyville, and capable John Miller of Kokomo did not go to the post. The current Texas drought may make the Lone Elsewhere, Democrat Frank McDonald, Mayor of Star state arid territory for Richard Nixon in 1972. In Evansville, chose not to seek re-election (he is mention­ 1956 a similar drought caused 22 Panhandle counties ed in some circles as a 1972 Gubernatorial entry), but to switch from Eisenhower to Stevenson, despite Ike's his hand-picked successor on the Democratic ticket, expressions of concern. The loss in these counties was William Brooks, is rated a heavy favorite over Repub­ balanced by Eisenhower gains in East Texas, where the lican standard bearer Russell Lloyd. replacement of a deep southerner, John Sparkman, with Allen County Democratic Chairman Ivan Lebamoff, a border state "liberal," Estes Kefauver, hurt the Dem­ whose organizational talents were largely responsible ocrats in cottongrowing, black belt counties. for J. Edward Roush's victory over 20-year Congressional veteran E. Ross Adair and for R. Vance Hartke's hair­ line victory over Richard L. Roudebush in the Senate race, was nominated to oppose Fort Wayne Mayor NEW YORK: hire an expert Harold Zeis. The latter might normally be expected to win easily, but he has been a fixture in the City for many years, and Lebamoff's organization is fresh, while Kieran O'Doherty, a founder and vice chairman Republican County Chairman Orvas Beers' team, once of the Conservative party of New York, has been ap­ among the best in the state, is apparently in the early pointed by the Nixon administration as a $30,OOO-a-year stages of political hardening of the arteries. consultant in the Department of Commerce. O'Doherty, a 44-year-old lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for Indiana's two best-known mayors, Republican Rich­ Lieutenant Governor in 1964, will prepare a study of ard G. Lugar of Indianapolis and Democrat Richard the franchising industry. G. Hatcher of Gary, easily swept to renomination. O'Doherty is, of course, an expert in franchising In the Hoosier capital, the largest city in the new splinter porties. United States with both a Republican mayor and coun­ cil, incumbent Richard G. Lugar, who is serving as pres­ ident of the National League of Cities, crushed three opponents, his 35,000 votes representing 83 percent of the Republican vote. Some political observers had ex­ INDIANA: up to their ears pected a stronger challenge based upon alleged opposi­ in mayoral races tion to Lugar's unified government ("Unigov") plan which consolidates city and county governments, but it failed to emerge. Lugar's vote total almost exceeded The Indiana Republican Party, fresh from a defeat that of all six D'emocratic candidates; the winner of at the polls last November, split by factional disputes, that race was John F. Neff, described by one observer and minus some of its outstanding mayoral spokesmen, as an "ambitious former Young Turk who has outgrown is headed for the November municipal elections with his acne but not his shrillness." Neff has charged that hopes of cutting its losses to a minimum. Lugar will seek the help of Richard Nixon, who frequent­ The outlook for the Hoosier GOP to do so is at ly consults Lugar on urban affairs, and that the Re­ best marginal. Part of the blame must be shouldered publican party will spend $2 million to re-elect its by Indiana Governor Edgar D. Whitcomb, who took of- standardbearer. 5 In fact, Lugar is better able to stand on his own bill through was 25-year old Victor Ashe, a Knoxville before the electorate than could Nixon in this Repub­ Republican. In his second term, Representative Ashe lican state, and Neff will probably outspend his op­ was voted one of the three most effective Republican ponent. Part of Neff's outlay will doubtless be a chunk legislators of the session by the Capitol Hill Press Corps of the $400,000 he received as co-counsel in a suit because of his excellent handling of numerous bills. Of against the State of Indiana to recover $12.7 million an independent turn of mind and a progressive point of in disputed inheritance taxes for the Marion County view, this hard working young attorney, a Yale graduate, MTA. At the time the agreement for attorneys' fees may one day be a candidate for higher office. was signed, Democrats controlled the MTA board. Youth has status in Tennessee - legal status. A Lugar is favored, but the very fact that he has bill passed the legislature and was signed by the gov­ taken an aggressive lead in the community is bound to ernor which gives 18-year-olds the right to make con­ alienate some. Stir in possible voter apathy, and a sur­ tracts, marry, seek certain political offices, sue and be prise upset could occur, which would not only eliminate sued, buy and consume alcoholic beverages, and prac­ Lugar but spell probable doom for Marion County Re­ tice any profession. publican Chairman L. Keith Bulen. Bulen, a master Tennessee was also the third state of the United politician, whose string of victories was snapped by the States to ratify the 26th Amendment to the Constitu­ Roudebush defeat in 1970, realizes that he has to help tion, giving 18-year olds the right to vote. A special Lugar win handily in order to further his own reputa­ session was called within the hour after the amendment tion and career. passed Congress and ratification took place with very Whatever the outcome, though, the Republican little dissent. Party is likely to witness the further erosion of its pre­ Winfield Dunn, Tennessee's GOP governor, is get­ eminence in the November election, one year before the ting national attention for his "No power." A bill passed next gubernatorial and presidential balloting. And the the legislature which would require a local referendum eighteen-year-old vote, which is not likely to go to at a 10 percent request by voters before public hous­ many presently-prominent Republicans, will provide a ing projects could be built. Governor Dunn said on veto­ headache rather than a potential opportunity. ing the bill that "the legislation ... would thwart the efforts of local governments to provide safe, decent, and adequate housing for persons of low income .... we cannot run the risk that public housing will be ILLINOIS: party unity bash brought to a standstill in any area of our state." Governor Dunn has moved into commanding posi­ tion in the state GOP organization. The Tennessee Senator Charles Percy, in the interests of party Executive Committee named Dunn's choice, S. L. Kopald unity, arranged a Washington visit for over 300 Illinois of Memphis, as State Chairman. Kopald is probably the Republican county chairmen, ward leaders, town chair­ first member of the Jewish faith ever to be elected men and their wives. The two-day grand tour, joined a state GOP chairman in the South. He replaces con­ by Governor Richard Ogilvie and Attorney General Bill servative State Representative Edward Bailey. Kopald is Scott, met with, among others, President Nixon, Sena­ expected to place new emphasis on local precinct or­ tor and RNC Chairman Bob Dole, presidential advisors ganization statewide for 1972. A!1other moderate, Ronald Donald Rumsfeld and Henry Kissinger, the director of Rietdorf of Oak Ridge, was named GOP Executive Di­ the President's council on international economic poli­ rector. The election of Kopald is seen in some quarters cy, Peter G. Peterson, and Cabinet heads Romney, as a move by the Dunn-Baker forces to forestall any Richardson, Connally and Volpe. Reportedly Connally future take-over of party leadership by the more con­ made the biggest splash: there were more requests that servative forces of new Senator William Brock, who, he be included in the itinerary and more bubbling as predicted (d. FORUM, July-Aug. 1970, p. 73), prac­ enthusiasm after his appearance than for any other tically wrote off all the state's black and moderate Administration official - a position that Vice President voters in 1970. Agnew probably would have occupied before his part in But the Brock forces were moving too. When the the disastrous GOP campaign of Ralph Tyler Smith last state YR federation passed resolutions endorsing the fall. 18-year-old vote for 1972 and urging larger YR rep­ At this point, Percy expects that he will face no resentation on the state party Executive Committee, GOP primary challenge when he runs for reelection in Brock partisans quietly slipped through an invitation to 1972. Vice-President Agnew to speak at the August conven­ tion. Agnew's campaign visit to Memphis last fall angered blacks and moderates and almost blew GOP chances. -In election of YR officers, Brock's backers also TENNESSEE: southern proving ground demonstrated their considerable muscle, dating back to the day Brock's close ally, Ross Walker of Chat­ tanooga, became YR president. Most of the state's Tennessee will be the proving ground for the south­ young organization moderates are on Dunn's staff or ern vote getting power of candidates in the next presi­ work for Tennessee's senior Senator Howard Baker, leav­ dential election. A bill setting up a Presidential Prefer­ ing Brock and the extreme conservatives with the bulk ence Primary passed the state legislature this spring. of the YR federation. The primary will take place May 4 of next year. Al­ One question for 1972 is how much aid the Brock ready there have been recent visits to Nashville, the conservatives will be to Senator Baker's re-election state capital, from presidential possibilities Wilbur Mills, chances. Some Brock leaders still resent the ex-Baker Birch Bayh, Henry Jackson and Ted Kennedy. staff help country-singer Tex Ritter received in his Heading the bi-partisian group which pushed the spirited 1970 primary against victor Brock and later 6 massive Baker help Winfield Dunn received in the gen­ In any event, the present conservative domination eral election for governor; Brock was bypassed because of the Idaho Republican party was strengthened - of his barren conservatism. rather than weakened - by President Nixon's recent appointment of former Governor Samuelson as regional (Northwest) director in Seattle, Washington, of the U.S. Department of Transportation. IDAHO: mild sensation The appointment was seen by many as an effort by the Administration to keep Samuelson in the public After a quarter-century of conservative Republi­ eye, possibly to run him for senator in 1972 if Jordan can rule, Idaho is still experiencing somewhat of a decides not to run again (Samuelson has indicated an sensation with the new Democratic administration of interest, and Jordan is 72). Another possibility is that Governor Cecil D. Andrus. Samuelson (who unseated incumbent GOP Governor Although Andrus failed to carry a majority of Dem­ Robert E. Smylie in 1966) may be used to run against ocrats into the state legislature with him last Novem­ Jordan in a primary, Samuelson being more popular ber, when he ousted incumbent Governor Don W. Samuel­ with the far-right and more of a Nixon activist than son, there is nonetheless little doubt that Andrus re­ Jordan (who has shown some independence, such as tains much personal popularity and has effectively opposing the Haynsworth appointment). Other unhap­ squelched the one-party domination that has been so py Samuelson prospects, insofar as the moderates are characteristic of Idaho politics. That this spells more concerned, are that the former governor may re-seek trouble for Republicans in Idaho is privately admitted his old job in 1974, or have ambitions of running against by many GOP officials. Democratic Senator Frank Church. So far, Andrus has taken the easy road to public approval. He has retained his image as a Democratic "liberal" and blamed a dearth of positive programs KENTUCKY: upsetting the on GOP intransigence in the state legislature. And Andrus is not inclined to share any popularity with the gop applecart Nixon-Agnew administration. Nixon carried Idaho by 56 percent in 1968, a bigger margin than in any other Western state. However, the war, the economy, and Only Kentucky and Mississippi will conduct state­ other national factors which have had their toll on wide elections in 1971. At present the Republicans hold the Administration have not gone unfelt in Idaho. Fur­ Kentucky under the administration of Governor Louie thermore, Andrus harbors a grudge against the Ad­ Nunn. On May 25 both parties held primaries to deter­ ministration for an attack made against him during mine who will do battle on November 2 in the Blue the campaign by Vice President Agnew, in which the Grass state. vice president linked Andrus with radical subversives. The Democratic primary featured a stunning up­ Idaho Democrats are already laying plans to cap­ set by underdog Wendell Ford, the state's lieutenant ture control of the legislature in 1972 by a campaign governor. Ford defeated the legendary Bert Combs, against Republican "obstructionists." The Republicans former federal judge and governor who, in 1959, was will further be penalized by Democratic capitalization elected Governor by the greatest majority given a state­ on the growing unpopularity of the Nixon administra­ wide candidate in the history of the Commonwealth. tion. GOP Senator Len B. Jordan, who has been an Ford put together an urban coalition, carrying Louis­ Administration supporter in most areas, may be espe­ ville, Lexington, northern Kentucky, and all the other cially vulnerable - particularly if Democratic Attor­ smaller urban counties in the state. He also swept his ney General Tony Park, a new politics-oriented can­ native western Kentucky, leaving Combs only the votes didate who scored a bigger breakthrough in 1970 than of the mountains of the east. Ford's margin was over Andrus, can be persuaded to challenge Jordan. An­ 40,000 votes. other potential Jordan challenger, not so formidable, Governor Nunn hand-picked his slate of statewide but who could conceivably reverse his 1966 defeat to candidates long before the primary, and all were nom­ Jordan, is Democratic National Committeeman Ralph inated in a tiny turnout (18 percent). The Republican Harding. gubernatorial choice is Tom Emberton. Nunn would have Andrus is sure to try to exploit anti-Administra­ preferred Emberton, who is extremely photogenic and tion feeling against Idaho's two Republican Congress­ talented on TV, to face the elderly Judge Combs, but men. Second District Congressman Orval Hansen, who the primary upset by Ford also upset the GOP apple had progressive support in 1968 because he faced both cart. a blacklash Democrat and an American Independent Republican power has waned in the urban areas candidate, should take note. First District Congressman of the state during the Nunn administration. In the James A. McClure, very conservative and a Nixon early '60s, the progressive Republicanism of William supporter in the Administration's more narrowly-based Cowger and Marlow Cook in Louisville and of Joe John­ programs, may lose some ground, but has enough per­ son and Don Ball in Lexington led to GOP victories in sonal popularity to discourage any possible opponent. the growing urban areas. The conservatism of the Nunn The state's Republican leaders are beginning administration reversed that trend, and left the GOP to feel the Democrats' hot breath on the back of their to concentrate on the areas of the state which tend to necks. Some - notably Lieutenant Governor Jack Mur­ vote conservative, but also are losing population and phy, and possibly House Majority Leader Terry Crapo political influence. - will probably be persuaded to try headinq off the Nunn and Emberton hoped that the contrast be­ Democratic challenge by taking a more moderate di­ tween the young Emberton and the older Combs would rection than the present negative impasse in which cause city. and suburban voters to swing back to the the GOP is mired. GOP. Now their opponent, Ford, finds his greatest sup- 7 port in the urban countries and in his western home­ trict campaign organization to him; the Republican land. Boosters Club beefed up Mills war chest with a $10,000 ''Tom and Louie will pour enough money into this gift. election to sink a battleship," commented one GOP pro Boyer, who, like Mills, fits easily into the con­ from Louisville. "But most Kentuckians don't like their servative mold, had the strong support of the entire politicians sold like soap or cars." A young Democrat Maryland Democracy; he predicted his victory would be on Ford's staff was more to the point: "Combs had a preview of President Nixon's 1972 defeat. Immensely money too, and look what happened to him. People are popular Governor Marvin Mandel came into the dis­ sick and tired of TV politics. Wait till November 2." trict several times, while former Governor J. Millard Another factor in the race is the independent can­ Tawes headed Boyer's Lower Shore campaign. Other didacy of former Governor Albert B. "Happy" Chandler, Democratic stalwarts hard at work, running, in effect, a conservative who supported Nunn in 1967 but turned 'against Nixon, included Thomas Hunter Lowe, the against his old friend because of tax issues. Chandler Speaker of the House of Delegates and Louis Gold­ is expected to hurt Emberton more than Ford, and es­ stein, perhaps the most popular Maryland politician, pecially in the areas that Emberton needs the most: now serving his fourth term. National Democrats gen­ central Kentucky around Lexington and the western erally avoided the campaign, as Boyer is far away from part of the state. Muskie, Kennedy, Bayh, McGovern, et al. "Ford and Emberton will provide the fireworks," Mills' victory means that at least the Maryland one Republican in Lexington stated, "but Happy will GOP can lose one Congressman and not necessarily provide the fun." lose the seat, as when J. Glenn Beall, Jr. moved up to the U.S. Senate from his Sixth District seat and a Democrat slid easily into his place in the House. Hope­ fully, the First District win is a good omen. MARYLAND: good omen '" '" '" Maryland has no state-wide election in 1972, but - with direct election of national convention delegates Maryland's First Congressional District which en­ - the Free State could witness a flurry of spring, pre- compasses all of the Eastern Shore is a strongly con­ convention politicking. Liberal elements of the GOP servative area. It comprises some 46 percent of Mary­ are silent on any challenge to the President at the land's land area in its twelve counties, yet, as has been present time and few Republicans seem excited about noted, "despite its size the district has little heavy in­ the possible candidacy of Congressman Paul N. (Pete) dustry, no major university, no city of more than 30,000 McCloskey. The bulk of the party seems to support residents and only one television station." It is a peace­ the Administration and the renomination of former ful somnolent extension of the South, unburdened by Maryland Governor Ted Agnew in 1972. Agnew was un­ the problems of metropolitan living. The climate has able to help the GOP carry the state in '68 and was been conducive to the pleasant, genial politics of Rog less-than-helpful in Stan Blair's gubernatorial race in Morton, who first won the seat in 1962. Many observers 1970. His presence in the First District recently can be felt that the huge Democratic majority in the district taken as an effort to burnish his Maryland political would be enough to elect a Democratic successor to image. Morton, who was named Secretary of the Interior last winter. That, however, was not to be the case. Winning the May 25 special election was Morton's former administrative assistant, William O. Mills, who CONNECTI(UT: Vietnam fix had only recently bothered to change his registration from Democratic to Republican. Many, including the Democratic nominee, State Senator Elroy G. Boyer, tried Connecticut's new Republican governor, Thomas to picture the race as a referendum on the Nixon ad­ ). Meskill, seems to be tightening his grip on the state ministration. However, there was little difference in party organization. After appointing his campaign man­ the stands of the two candidates. Both opposed setting ager, Lewis (Chip) Andrews, Executive Director of the a withdrawal date from South Vietnam; Mills was for State Central Committee, he engineered the removal the SST, while Boyer opposed it; both opposed anti­ of state GOP chairman Howard E. Hausman, and re­ gun laws, a touchy subject in the hunting country of placed him with State Representative J. Brian Gaffney. the Eastern Shore, and both favored lowering taxes Goffney has been a close advisor throughout Meskill's and preserving the ecology of the Chesapeake Bay re­ political career. It appears that Republican U.S. Sena­ gion. tor Lowell P. Weicker was left almost entirely out of The campaign was distinctly low-key. Spring this the deeisions concerning the state party. Many state year just seemed too pleasant a time for bitter partisan Republicans view the selection of Gaffney as a move politics. The election, characterized by a surprisingly away from the progressive posture of the Connecticut large number of newly-registered 18-21-year-old voters, GOP under Searle Pinney and Hausman, who were both resulted in a comfortable Mills victory. The 46-year-old Rockefeller supporters in 1968. Easton Republican defeated Boyer 31,165 to 27,234. After defeating right-wing State Senator Robert Freshman U.S. Representative Robert H. Steele was E. Bauman of Upper Shore, a distinct hawk (victory in co-author of House Foreign Affairs Committee report Vietnam, etc,), Mills ran with strong Administration on the world heroin problem. The report estimated that backing. He emphasized his experience in the work­ 10 percent of U.S. soldiers in Vietnam are heroin ad­ ings of Congress with numerous "Rog and I"-type dicts, and recommended that the U.S. speed up the flyers and managed to get Vice-President Agnew into withdrawal of draftees. However, Steele's prediction the district for a bull roast. Morton himself campaign­ that the drug crisis would spur faster withdrawal of all ed extensively for Mills and turned over his entire dis- troops was denied by the White House. 8 STATE SprOTLIGHT: New York AHording Austerity, or Budget Blues It used to be that when its citizens were asked Senate Majority Leader Earl Brydges and especially about John Lindsay's proclaiming New York the "Fun Speaker of the Assembly Perry Duryea to chop off $760 City," they laughed and made excuses; now they curse. million from the budget. Many believe that Duryea The city, and the whole state, seem to be having more would like to be the next occupant of the Executive than their share of problems, and this was clearly Mansion, and if one thing was demonstrated this year, shown by the recent legislative session. As might be it was the political force of Duryea. The Governor ex­ expected, the root of all these problems is mone)', and pected to run into some difficulties with this independ­ there certainly is a lot of that, for the City and State ly-minded fellow Republican, but he felt that public budgets alone are greater than the budgets of many of pressure would force Duryea to restore some of the the world's countries. The politics surrounding the ap­ more severe budget cuts. A $7.7 billion State budget proval of the State and City budgets have been distin­ was passed on strict partisan lines on April 2; welfare guished mainly by their viciousness. categories were hard hit, the City's share of State in­ In the past, things generally went according to come tax revenue was reduced from 21 to 18 percent, the following scenario, more or less: and 8,250 State employees were dismissed. 1. New York City signs contracts containing over­ 3. Shortly after that budget was passed, Mayor generous pension and salary arrangements with John Lindsay presented four "budget options" to the police, fire, and sanitation unions, after a short public; the worst option provided for an elimination "job action" by one or more of the above of 90,000 jobs, the closing of eight hospitals, and no unions; Mayor warns that the city will be un­ admission of the freshman class at City University; the able to afford this increase next year. The Gov­ most favorable option included only minor improve­ ernor, not to be topped, warns that the state ments in city services. The Mayor claimed that the de­ faces a very grave fiscal crisis. cision as to which "option" would be implemented 2. Governor presents multibillion dollar "auster­ was entirely the state legislature'S. His almost self­ ity" budget calling for increased taxes; budget righteous attitude in putting all the responsibility for approved after grueling negotiations between the City's survival on others won few friends - the legislative leaders and the Governor. Governor, noting that the Mayor's administration has 3. Mayor calls for new taxes and presents "sur­ created over 70,000 new jobs, remarked that the worst vival" budget to the City Council. (It is in­ cutbacks "would bring the City back to where it was teresting to note that the City's budget is larg­ when he [Lindsay] took over." The Mayor formally er than the State's!) The Council C\,ttS.hudget submitted a $9.3 billion "survival" budget to the City and requests permission from the state legis­ Council; he also eliminated a few thousand jobs, in­ lature to raise local taxes (Whatever happen­ stituted a job freeze, and made other cutbacks. There ed to "home rule?") To dramatize the situa­ then followed several weeks of political "hot potato" tion, the Mayor partially closes libraries and in which no one wanted to be left with the responsibili­ cuts back other services. ty of making cutbacks in the budget or raising the 4. Smiling publicly, Mayor and Governor argue taxes. The Council sidestepped its responsibilities by angrily at each other in the tax package ne­ not changing one iota of the budget but requested gotiatIOns. Finally compromise is reached and approval for $880 million in new taxes from the leg­ legislature approves new City taxes. islature. 5. City Council balances and approves budget with 4. Duryea and his upstate conservative Repub­ new taxes and Mayor miraculously "discovers" lican friends stubbornly insisted on large budgetary money to keep the libraries and hospitals open. slashes, and were reluctant to approve any tax increase. Two Democrats who defected and supported If Duryea & Co. were hard-nosed, the Mayor was down­ Governor's budget are appointed judges. right obstinate: he insisted that the whole $880 mil­ This year, for better or worse (apparently worse), lion tax package had to be passed or else the blame it was decided to throwaway the script and let every­ for the resulting "disaster" in the City would be sole­ body do his own thing: ly the legislators'. The great public outcry for restora­ 1. To get things off to a bad start the police tion of budgetary cuts that the Governor expected never went on an unprecedented strike in January; as of really developed, but powerful lobbyists swun~ into mid-June the policemen, firemen, and sanitationmen action: the teachers', firemen's, policemen's, and civil have all been working without a contract for half a servants' unions placed full page ads in the N.Y. Times year. and demonstrated at City Hall and the Capitol. Mean­ 2. In February the Governor proposed a mam­ while, Lindsay, Rockefeller, Brydges, Duryea, and their moth State budget of $8.45 billion, with $1.1 billion aides were involved in negotiations in an attempt to in additional taxes. As noted in these pages last month reach a compromise. Any pretense at cordiality was the Governor's reelection was accomplished by a defi­ thrown aside. nite shift to the ri~ht of the political center, and Negotiations were hampe,ted by, on one side, the makeup of both houses of the Republican-control­ Duryea's fiscal conservatism, and on the other, by Lind­ led legislature reflects that shift. Upstate and suburban say's "grandstand" maneuvers; however, several times legislators, many of whom were elected with Conserva­ a tentative tax compromise was reached only to be tive Party support, rallied under the leadership of State shot down by upstate conservatives (angry at any new 9 spending or taxing), suburban assemblymen (angry at very vocal, and Democratic) will get thrown into a a larger commuter tax), or city assemblymen (angry district on Manhattan's West Side and have to fight at Republicans in general, and at severe cutbacks and it out with II-year veteran Representative William F. higher real estate taxes in particular). The legislators, Ryan (also a Democrat). irritated by the last minute rush of bills crammed down Brooklyn will also lose a seat; the situation there their throats in one of the longest sessions in history, is more uncertain, but Republican John J. Rooney, a yelled at each other and started several shoving matches conservative Democrat who has served 27 years in the on the floor of the Assembly. House, might face redistricting. Finally, on the day the City was paralyzed by a municipal employees strike (that, among other things, Still in Brooklyn, but* *back * in the Republican Par- created a monumental traffic jam due to inoperable draw­ ty, there is a different type of challenge to the aged bridges) an acceptable hybrid tax bundle was created. established powers. The dean of American GOP coun­ Most of the 26 bills forming the compromise revenue ty chairman (after 34 years), John R. Crews, is in very package were passed unanimously. The deal called for poor health and is facing strong opposition from with­ $525 million 10 new taxes and state aid plus $100 in his own organization. The strongest threat is being million in Federal aid to be paid by the state only if made by Edmund G. Seergy, a district leader from the Federal grant fell through. one of the more reactionary areas of the county. He 5. The Mayor said that $625 million was less has the support of 6 or 7 of the 23 leaders but he has than his requested amount, and as such would still two handicaps: he has just had another minor heart result in a budget gap and some cutbacks in services. attack and he is Arabian - his election would be The City Council, after extending the legal deadline rather impolitic to say the least as Brooklyn is heavi­ for budget approval, was expected to further modify ly Jewish. His politics are exceedingly right-wing and and approve the budget in mid-June. Hopefully, next he supported Conservative Senator James Buckley over year's script for the budgetary game in Fun City will his own party's nominee, Charles Goodell. Another include a few scenes with characters who demonstrate faction is supporting the heir apparent, Anthony N. some responsibility and sensitivity - both of which Durso, the Republican County Secretary and a long­ seem to have been forgotten this time. time Crews' aide. Finally, district leader Tom Parisi, along with his brother, form the heads of the third, Many liberals in the* City* *were surprised and up- and least ~werful, bloc. Unfortunately, there is no set at State Senator Roy Goodman's acquiescence in group in slght that can be said to represent a more the recent action to cut state aid to the city by 3 per­ progressive outlook. cent. Democrats immediately and viciously attacked Governor Rockefeller generally plays it safe and him (claiming he "sold his soul" in an unspecified deal) stays out of such local leadership clashes and he is and were doubly enraged when he announced that he following true to form this time; the Governor appoint­ would head a drive to restore the state budget cuts. ed a triumvirate last year to head his reelection cam­ Goodman is very liberal and is the only Republican paign in Brooklyn. As one former district leader who legislator from Manhattan. But what is more important was knocked off by Seergy forces says, the election is that he is recognized as an excellent public official of Seergy to the chairmanship "would be a disaster and was expected by almost everyone (at least prior to - the Party would go ultra-right-wing and we can't his puzzling backing of the urban aid cut) to run for afford to let this happen." The precarious balance governor or mayor someday soon. among the forces is likely to remain until Crews re­ signs or passes away - but in Brooklyn they've been New York must *lose * two* Congressional seats saying that the elderly chairman would be out of the (from 41 to 39) and the latest rumor is that first-term picture soon for the past decade. Representative "Battling Bella" Abzug (very liberal, GLENN S. GERST ELL r·-...·~·.--..··--·-··-··-----·-..·-tl.--.----.-.. -.. ----.--... -...--.. -..- ..---.- .. ---...-··-··-·----··-·---··-..··-·--··----·--··-·.--..··---.--..··~·--·1 i A MAJOR NEW RIPON BOOK l l The Ripon Society is proud to announce the publication on June 30 by Hawthorn , ; ! ~ Books of New York our eighth book: t ! INSTEAD OF REVOLUTION t ~ • Introduction by Senator Howard H. -8':C!lker, Jr. t.' ~ • Edited by Howard L. Reiter, Vice President, of the Ripon Society t , • Adapted from Ripon's Report to the President, December 1969 ! ,. InCluding policy proposals for reform of: l , * labor * business * the environment * law * drug policy t l * universities * the military *,. politics * voluntarism * internationalism , ~. ORDER NOW AND SAVE! ~ , This book will sell for $6.95 at bookstores. Order from Ripon and pay only $5.50 ! l .per copy. THE RIPON BOOK CLUB , \ ...... __. •.__.. •• _.. ... _._•• __.. •• _.•• _..._ •• _...--.. •• __. •• _.. •• __..__. •• _.. •• __ •• __ •• __. •• _.. •.--.... __ •..--..c..-.-.c.--..c. __ ••-. • ..--..c..--..c.--.c.-.c. ___ c~ ...... -.c~c. ___ •• ___ c_•• ___ .~

10 On May 6, 1971, the Federation of American a result of these assumptions, DDR & E sees Soviet Scientists released a detailed 50-page study on the military R&D rising over 40 percent in two years! research and development gap projected in state­ But estimates of the total resources being ap­ ments issued by the Pentagon's Directorate of De­ plied even to militarily related R&D in the Soviet fense Research and Engineering (DDR & E). The Union are inevitably open to controversy. study concluded that the DDR & E discussion of a Indeed, even if one knew precisely what the gap was a "classical numbers game featuring se­ Soviet Union was planning to do with each en­ lective disclosure, questionable assumptions, exag­ gineer and scientist, there would be a great deal of geratedly precise estimates, misleading language, and difficulty in assessing what the dollar equivalent cost alarmist non-sequitur conclusions." of such allocations should be - much less the tech­ It was, therefore, a shock to see that the June nological significance. As the Federation report con­ Ripon editorial "Less Means More" took for granted cluded: "Necessary expenditures became progressive­ an "impending Soviet lead in research and develop­ ly larger as one moves from research on basic tech­ ment" on the grounds that Dr. John S. Foster, Di­ nological discoveries to development of weapons. rector of DDR & E "should know." This shows the extreme difficulty in making mean­ ingful comparisons on a financial basis of efforts There are two basic weaknesses in the argu­ to protect against technological surprise." ments of DDR & E. In the first place, DDR & E is In addition to these basic complaints, the Fed­ comparing U.S. and Soviet expenditures on total eration felt that the statements of DDR & E had all military research and development when the rel­ the hallmarks of an exaggerated scare. evance of these categories for military technological In particular, in the last 24 months, Dr. John advance is questionable. Most of R&D expenditures S. Foster has argued in successive statements that are devoted to engineering development on proto­ the United States will lose its technological supe­ types - often for weapon systems whose procure­ riority over the Soviets in a "decade," in the "next ment is already ordered. In these cases, especially several years," in "two years," in the "latter half of for strategic weapon systems, the expenditures have this decade" and in the "middle of this decade." little effect either on advance in military technology, Often he charges not only that we will "lose" tech­ or on military surprises, or on technological break­ nological superiority but that the Soviets will gain it. throughs. U.S. expenditures for the so-called "tech­ Far more concrete evidence is required to sup­ nology base" ( including research, exploratory de­ port these assurances than these estimates assert­ velopment, and some advanced development) are ing that - in the last two years - the Soviets have far more relevant to protecting against Soviet tech­ begun to spend much more on gross military R&D. nological advance. But technology base expenditures Indeed, there is much evidence, and even much So­ are normally about 25 percent of the total military viet admisson, that the Soviet state of technology is R&D budget; no one has ever claimed to be able to far behind our own in many, if not most, areas. measure Soviet expenditures in this category. I encourage Ripon members to read the Federa­ Indeed, the utility of expenditures for proto­ tion of American Scientists' report which was placed types of weapons that may not be deployed is a in the Congressional Record on May 10 (S6517). subject of controversy; some believe these prototypes And I encourage them to think about the implica­ improve the efficiency of the military procurement tions of this alarum. On the basis of a projection process and others do not. In any case, the develop­ concerning two recent years of Soviet R&D spend­ ment of such prototypes must be judged on their in­ ing, newspapers and magazines across the country dividual merits. And it must be recognized that the have been discussing for many months, the implica­ Soviet Union traditionally spends more on proto­ tions a new "technology gap." types for each weapon finally deployed. This further No one can read the Federation's report with­ undermines the relevance of gross estimates. out conceding the enormous importance of con­ The second basic weakness in the DDR & E structing institutional counterweights to Pentagon argument is the "softness" of its calculations. Basic­ official statements. Because the Defense Department ally, DDR & E has a new.~dy which has concluded: inevitably lobbies by spreading fear, methods must a) that during the 60's, total Soviet militarily related be found to prevent overzealous officials and depart­ R&D rose about 10 percent a year; b) that this ments from repeatedly and needlessly alarming their growth was applied to civil space technology until countrymen. JEREMY J. STONE it reached $5 billion; and c) that this growth is Dr. Stone is Director of the Federation of Amer­ now being again applied to military technology. As ican Scientists.

11 GUEST EDITORIAL Senator J. Caleb Boggs ole: Job Training Success Story For nearly a decade the Federal Government eral Government. has been trying to train the disadvantaged for Doctor Sullivan, who recently became the first gainful and useful employment, and for the entire black man to serve on the board of directors of decade the results have been, at best, mixed. the General Motors Corporation, has raised most Federal participation in job-training began with of the money which supports OIC through con­ the Area Redevelopment Act of 1961 and was tributions from private industry and local govern­ greatly expanded with the Manpower Development ments. and Training Act of 1962 and the Economic Op­ The Federal support to OIC over the years has portunity Act of 1964. Along the way, programs averaged $7.5 million channeled through existing have included MDTA Institutional training, On­ manpower programs. the-Job Training, Job Corps, Neighborhood Youth Corps, Mainstream, New Careers, Concentrated Em­ HIGH RATE OF RETURN ployment Programs and NAB-JOBS. Despite inadequate or sporadic funding, Ole's Not surprisingly, Federal expenditures have ex­ have attained success in very large measure. Of panded to match the proliferation of programs. trainees completing the OIC course, 71.2 percent From an infinitesimal $4 millien in 1959, funding have been placed in jobs. As further evidence of has grown to a proposed $2.9 billion for Fiscal its successful record, Ole's have a one-year job re­ Year 1972. tention rate of 76 percent, the highest, to my knowl­ Thus, it is evident that there has been a sin­ edge, of any manpower training program in the cere intent on the part of Congress and succeeding country. administrations to do something about the prob­ Dollar for dollar, the return has been far lem - to provide valuable training for the un­ greater than money spent in most other programs. employed and the underemployed. Cost per OIC trainee has been about $1500, which Unfortunately, the well-intended programs and is about one-third of the cost of many Federal pro­ the nearly $10 billion spent during the decade grams. have not always produced satisfactory results. Pro­ The reasons for OIC success are many, but gram costs often have been exorbitant; men and they start with Doctor Sullivan. His tireless work women most in need of training often have not and apparently limitless energy give the Ole's a been reached, and the percentage of those who ac­ vitality not often found in the more staid Govern­ tually find jobs after training or who keep the ment programs. jobs they find has often been far too small. The key, however, is that Ole's are not merely PRIVATE GENESIS job training enterprises. They are comprehensive There is, however, a very successful job-train- programs which begin with pretraining counseling ing program begun seven years ago, not in Wash­ and end with job placement and follow-up at reg­ ington, but in the inner city in North Philadephia. ular intervals. Its genesis came, not from a Federal executive or Ole's also are located where the need for a Member of Congress, but from a Baptist minister job training is greatest - within our urban centers. and his congregation. The trainee remains with his family and friends The minister is the Reverend Doctor Leon H. in his own neighborhood. Ole's prepare the indivi­ Sullivan, pastor of Zion Baptist Church. He named dual for actual job training by means of a pre­ his program the Opportunities Industrialization vocational feeder program designed to provide basic Center. Started in 1964 in a former jailhouse reading and writing skills and to build self con­ leased from the City of Philadelphia and backed by fidence. $100,000 raised by the Zion Baptist congregation, Following completion of the feeder program, OIC organizations now exist in more than 100 the trainee learns a skill which is in demand by American cities. businesses in the area. The trainee thus has a real­ Those in operation are providing effective and istic goal for which to strive. Many times he is efficient job training at relatively low cost, and they guaranteed employment before his OIC training are doing it with very little support from the Fed- is completed.

12 In addition, OIC in some instances has ven­ of 1970 which was vetoed. The OIC provision of tured into black capitalism. In Philadelphia, OIC that bill was not a cause of that veto. It was, I has built a multi-million dollar shopping center and believe, the only section of the bill to enjoy near it opened Progress Aerospace Enterprises, which unanimous support of the Senate. employs 150 people on a NASA sub-contract, and The report of the Senate Labor and Public Progress Garment Manufacturing Company, where Welfare Committee said of the Ole: "The facts 100 employees turn out 2000 garments a week. clearly seem to justify the conclusion that this is an unusually successful and surprisingly low-cost It is evident, I believe, that OIC with relative­ manpower program, solidly accepted by the pover­ ly little financial help has accomplished much. How ty community and the private sector." much more could it accomplish with only a small The Labor and Public Welfare Committee share of the proposed $2.9 billion manpower bud­ again this summer will hold hearings on a com­ get? prehensive manpower bill, and OIC again will be I believe it is time we give Doctor Sullivan under consideration. and his colleagues the opportunity to prove what The Senate Labor Committee is not alone in they can do on a larger scale. That is why I in­ its appreciation of the OIC. I have been pleased to troduced this year the Opportunities Industrializa­ have a long and impressive list of co-sponsors of tion Assistance Act, which would authorize $432 this legislation. They include Senators Bayh, Harris, million in Federal funding for OIC's over the next Kennedy, Muskie, Pell and Mondale from the Dem­ three years. ocratk side of the aisle and Senators Javits, Do::tor Sullivan estimates that his organization Schweiker, Scott, Taft and Bellmon from the Re­ would reach a level of 51,000 trainees within the publican side. Without them, I know this legisla­ first 12 months of funding and that at the end of tion would not have received the attention it has. three years OIC would be serving 100,000 persons. It is my great hope that this year the aspira­ This legislation would make OIC funding the tions of Doctor Sullivan's great program will be exclusive responsibility of the Secretary of Labor, realized and that the Federal Government will pro­ removing the current problems of multi-agency vide it with the means for orderly and constructive funding. expansion. This legislation is not new. I introduced sim­ With that aid, I am confident the OIC will ilar legislation last year and it was adopted as an prove to be the most effective job-training program amendment to the Employment and Manpower Act in the country. J. CALEB BOGGS

California Corner from page 20 not up for re-election, but Senator Song spent $65,000 This struggle between the Old Guard and the in a 33 percent GOP district to defeat a Republican Reform Coalition refutes the charge that conservative who could raise only $10,000. In a 28 percent GOP Republicans abide by the majority will of their party, district, Ralph Dills outspent his Republican chal­ while moderates violate the canons of party unity. It lenger $64,000 to $8,000 and went on to an easy vic­ also points out how the basic desires of rank and file tory. Democrats can be ignored by Democratic incumbents After the election, Collier, Song and Dills all if the Republican Party fails to present viable alter­ improved their positions in the Senate. Collier became natives to the disadvantaged voters in "safe" Demo­ chairman of the Finance Committee, Song was named cratic districts. Here is a major opportunity for the head of the Judiciary Committee, and Dills took over moderates of the Republican Party. The best chance leadershi p of the Governmental Organization Com­ for ousting lobbyist-oriented Democrats who are fa­ mittee (formerly Governmental Efficiency). voring special interests is by forging a coalition among It is difficult to quarrel with Senator Dymally's the middle income. taxpayers and the disadvantaged post-election assertion that he had been vindicated and - both of whom are being poorly served by the that his support of Schrade had been a key factor in present system. Although these groups have several the Democrats' regaining control of the State Senate. areas of conflicting interests, they would both benefit It is equally difficult to see what the eight Republi­ by structural reform that increased public accountabil­ cans who deserted Howard Way did to benefit either ity in the Legislature and increased efficiency in gov­ the Repu~lican Party or the State of California. ernment. MICHAEL HALLIWELL

13 A GUIDE TO REPUBLICAN INSURGENCY I. The Dumping of the President 1912 -68 When Eugene McCarthy threw down his elegant THE BULL Dumping did not become gauntlet and set out to deny Lyndon Johnson renom­ MOOSE DUMP the fashion in Presidential ination in 1968, political commentators talked as if politics until well into the new century. In 1900, a bold new precedent were being set - a President McKinley was renominated with nary a dissenting was being challenged from within his own party in voice, and in 1904 the only potential threat to Teddy an election year. Older reporters recalled a similar Roosevelt's renomination, Senator Marc Hanna, died venture by Estes Kefauver in 1952, but that was the several months before convention time. In 1908, TR only example history seemed to suggest. did not seek renomination, holding to a pledge he It may come as a surprise, then, to note that had made on election night in 1904 (and later re­ no less than nine times in this century has an incum­ gretted) . bent President been challenged seriously; or, to put It was in 1912 that one of the most exciting it another way, only three times since 1912 has a battles for the Presidency developed, culminating in re-electable President gone unchallenged. A brief look a race that pitted former, incumbent, and future Pres­ at some of those challenges, all of which are of his­ idents against each other. The story is long and ex­ torical importance, can tell us something about just citing, with some striking parallells to 1968, and it what kinds of challenges are most effective and why. began with Progressive Republican disillusionment NON-RENEWABLE We have to focus on this with President William H. Taft. Senator Robert La­ CONTRACTS century because conditions Follette and Teddy Roosevelt fought him in the pri­ of Presidential re-electability have changed so drastical­ maries, with LaFollette handicapped by a physical and ly through our history that earlier examples are of mental breakdown and also by Roosevelt's greater dubious relevance. political muscle. Between them, they held Taft down George Washington of course set the two-term to one victory in the primaries, with Roosevelt the precedent, and until 1840 only two of our first seven usual favorite. But Taft had control of the organiza­ Presidents were defeated for re-election. We usually tion, especially in the South, and held a narrow ma­ think of Washington's model as a limitation; actually,. jority at the Chicago convention. Most of the dis­ it was also an opportunity, for it made renomination sidents refused to vote at the "packed" convention, and re-election seem natural. and Taft was renominated. Roosevelt went off and Then, in the latter two-thirds of the Nineteenth formed the Progressive Party, and outpolled Taft in Century, the Presidency suddenly became a position November. But the winner was Democrat Woodrow with scant job security. From Van Buren through Wilson. Cleveland, only Lincoln and Grant won second terms at the end of their first. The rest fell into three nearly VOICES IN THE In 1916, Wilson had no equal categories - those who did not even try, those WILDERNESS opposition from his party, who tried and were denied renomination by their own and in 1920, broken in health and spirit, he declined parties, and those who got the nomination but were to run. Harding, the new President, died in 1923, rejected by the voters. This is not the place to discuss and Coolidge succeeded. why the Presidency fell into such low repute, but in­ When Coolidge chose to run in 1924, Repub­ cumbent Presidents were clearly at the top of nobody's lican farm belt Progressives took the opportunity to Ten Most Popular (or Ten Most Powerful) list. challenge him in the primaries. LaFollette beat him Then with McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt, and only in Wisconsin, and Senator Hiram Johnson only the growing power and esteem of the institution, Pres­ in South Dakota (Coolidge defeated Johnson in the idents once again found being renominated and re­ latter's native California.) Between them, they netted elected fairly easy. Of the last twelve re-election at­ 44 votes at the convention, and their minority plat­ tempts, only two - Taft and Hoover - failed, and form did not even come to a vote. LaFollette started in both cases the unfortunates managed to win re­ a new Progressive Party, which failed to keep the nomination. nation from four more years of Coolidge. In 1928 he This change in Presidential solidity make it dif­ stepped down, and was succeeded by Herbert Hoover. ficult to discuss 19th Century Presidents, mostly dump­ By 1932, Hoover was in deep trouble. His only ed as a matter of course, in the same terms that we primary opponent, former Senator Joseph France of discuss their 20th Century successors. So we will start Maryland, wanted to replace him with, of all people, with McKinley. Calvin Coolidge (a sign of the bankruptcy of the 14 party). France won most of the primaries by default, in New Hampshire and Robert Kennedy's entry into although Hoover bested him in his own Maryland, the race were followed quickly by the selfless depar­ and left him with a whopping four votes at the con­ ture from the Oval Office by Lyndon Johnson. vention. Perhaps more revealing was the defection ALL KINDS The foregoing suggest vari­ of leading Progressive Republicans like Johnson, La­ OF DUMPS ous scenarios for trying to Follette, and George Norris. Hoover, needless to add, dump incumbent Presidents, and now we will look was trounced in November by Franklin Roosevelt. at a few: Roosevelt himself encountered no serious oppo­ The big scare: This was the situation in 1952 sition to renomination in 1936, but in 1940 two lieu­ and 1968, when primary setcacks convinced incum­ tenants, Vice President John Nance Garner and Post­ bent Presidents to go home to Independence or Austin. master General Jim Farley, tried to keep him from a In that sense, they were successful "dumps." But note third term. In the primaries and at the convention, that both Presidents in question had served more than they were smashed. In 1944, the anti-New Deal pro­ four years, and did not feel that history would scorn test turned regional as 89 Southerners initiated the them as one-term Presidents. ha')it of protest by voting for Harry Byrd at the The t~ird party prel'iew: Roosevelt in 1912, La­ convention. Follette in 1924, and Thurmond in 1948 all led third DIXIECRATS AND In 1948, Harry Truman, parties that grew out of unsuccessful "dump" move­ EISENHOWERCRATS who had succeeded the fall­ ments. In all cases, the parties served not only as en Roosevelt, was being attacked from left and right. vents for frustration, but also as conduits for voters The far left deserted the Democrats and rallied be­ seeking to shift to the other party. Only Roosevelt hind Henry Wallace, and the not-so-far-Ieft (the succeeded in denying electoral victory to his party's ADA) wanted General Eisenhower or Justice Wil­ candidate. liam O. Douglas; at the convention Senator Claude The exercise in futility: The moves against FDR Pepper of Florida presented himself to a convention in 1940 and 1944, and Wallace's raid in 1964, were not willing to accept the gift. Truman had carried little more than foreshadowing of movements that the primaries, and once again the main opposition were to blossom years later. They can serve notice on was from the right, with 266 stalwarts opting for the incumcent that all is not well in the family, but Richard Russell. After the convention, the diehards little else for that year. bolted and ran Strom Thurmond for President, but Tbe harbinger of bad news. Joseph France in Truman won despite these setbacks. 1932 demonstrated to anyone who needed to know that In 1952, Truman was bested by Senator Estes even a nonentity could defeat Herbert Hoover in his Kefauver of Tennessee in New Hampshire, and with­ own party's primaries. In fact, that is the main func­ drew from the race less than three weeks later. tion of primaries for an incumbent's party: the in­ Truman was of course succeeded by Eisenhower, mmbent ran lose primaries and win renomination who was not opposed by any Republicans in 1956 anyway, bill losses in the primaries lIsually foreshadow (although Senate Minority Leader Bill Knowland had defeat in NOt'ember. It is significant that the only filed in some primaries in case Ike stepped down). In two incumcents who lost most of their primaries _ 1960, for the first time, an incumbent President was Taft and Hoover - were also the only two who lost in November. carred from seeking re-election by the 22nd Amend­ ment. Note the absence of what is presumably the raison d'etre of all dump movements: the situation where­ In 1964, the only rumble within the Democratic by the maverick defeats the incumbent at the con­ Party was George Wallace's ominous foray into Wis­ vention. The last time that happened was in 1884. consin, Indiana, and Maryland, where he popularized the backlash concept and gave Barry Goldwater some So dump-incumbent movements should not ex­ encouragement. This suggests one important rule of pect political annihilation of the target, unless he has dumping politics: that you can't judge an incumbent more than one term under his belt. What is more President's ovemll popularity by how well a stand­ important is to determine what long-range use will in does in the primary. Wallace would probably have be made of the political skills and experience that run far worse had it been Johnson himself on the are developed in the movement. ballot, rather than a succession of unpopular Demo­ HOJPARD L. REITER cratic governors. But of course there was no dissen­ SOURCES: Richard C. Bain, Convention Decisions and sion in Atlantic City. Finally, we have the well-known Voting Records (Brookings Institution, Washington, 1960) James W. Davis. Presidential Prinlaries: Road to the example of 1968, when McCarthy's strong showing White House (Thomas Y. Crowell, New York, 1967) 15 II. New Hampshire Primary p1review Two Democratic Presidents, Truman in 1952 and empted to date because of his early assoClatlOn with Johnson in 1968, have found the New Hampshire Senator Joseph McCarthy. In 1968 the fervent sup­ primary results damaging to any plans that they may port of its publisher William Loeb for Nixon served have entertained of seeking reelection. to head off any significant Reagan or Wallace activity Richard Nixon may face a similar test in 1972 on New Hampshire's right wing. in a state whose Republican voters have historically While it is difficult to predict whether the mer­ been as pro-Nixon as any in the nation. curial Loeb will still be riding the Nixon horse by • In 1956 when Harold Stassen began pro­ primary time, it seems a safe bet that his front-page moting a movement to replace Nixon with someone editorials will be savaging McCloskey or any Repub­ such as Christian Herter as the Republican vice presi­ lican peace candidate just as he characterized Senator dential nominee, thousands of New Hampshire write­ Margaret Chase Smith as "Moscow Maggie," Presi­ in votes for Nixon squelched the incipient "Dump dent Dwight Eisenhower as "that stinking hypocrite," Nixon" movement. and Nelson Rockefeller as "wife swapper Rocky." e In 1960 Nixon swept the Republican primary and carried the Granite State in November against McCLOSKEY SUPPORT? New Englander Jack Kennedy. An anti-war insurgency is likely to draw its • In 1964 with no campaigning and little or­ strongest support in the college towns of Durham, ganization he finished a strong fourth on write-ins ~anover, and Keene, in the capital city of Concord, behind write-in winner Henry Cabot Lodge and active III Nashua and in other cities and towns on the fringe candidates Barry Goldwater and Nelson Rockefeller. of the Boston metropolitan area. The older voters who • In 1968 Nixon waged an impressive personal constitute the bulk of the Republican electorate in campaign in wintry New Hampshire, forcing his Northern and Central New Hampshire may, however, principal opponent, George Romney, to withdraw be­ be disposed against Nixon if inflation continues to fore the primary election. In November Nixon handi­ nibble away at their savings. Goldwater's stand on ly carried New Hampshire against Humphrey. Social Security became a major issue in 1964 in New Given the extraordinarily deep Nixon leanings Hampshire. Nixon may have to contend with dis­ of New Hampshire voters, a showing for him as in­ content among elderly Granite State voters over in­ cumbent President anywhere below 75 percent of the creased Medicare costs and reduced coverage, inflation, vote would have to be viewed by Republican pol­ and seeming Administration stinginess on Social iticians as a sign of serious Nixon weakness in Novem­ Security. The coalescence of antiwar and economic ber. disaffection with the Administration could allow ALASKA IS OUT McCloskey to roll up a surprising vote total. Florida and New Hampshire are jockeying to be Administration strategists are reportedly torn be­ the first in the nation primary, but whichever emerges tween running a stand-in for Nixon such as Senator first, New Hampshire is likely to be regarded as the Norris Cotton and having the President campaign di­ best benchmark of voter affection or disaffection for rectly. Whether or not the stand-in artifice is employ­ the Nixon administration. The largely Yankee Prot­ ed the voters of New Hampshire and observers else­ estant small-town Republican voters of this Northern where will view the results as a referendum on the New England state may have to choose between their Nixon administration. old favorite Nixon and this new young congressman McCloskey's personality should be well-suited to from California. the small meeting, question-and-answer-session cam­ Pete McCloskey starts his campaign almost from paigning of New Hampshire. His candor and his ready scratch. In a recent Becker Research Corporation poll command of the facts stand out under such close commissioned by the Boston Globe he trailed Nixon examination. His record as a Korean War hero should 83 to six percent and enjoyed a 20 percent name insulate McCloskey from many of the innuendoes that recognition among New Hamp~te voters. Few sig­ Loeb and other self-designated superpatriots will prob­ nificant party figures are likely to line up with his ably spread. campaign against a sitting President. A strong showing by McCloskey in this primary The far right Manchester Union-Leader, the only could serve to put him within range of victory in paper with statewide circulation, is almost certain to the subsequent primaries of Wisconsin and Rhode give McCloskey the same hammer and tongs treat­ Island. For this reason Richard Nixon must hope his ment it has accorded to every moderate Republican past position of strength will hold in New Hampshire. except Richard Nixon, who has been generally ex- lOHN TOPPING

16 III. Nixon's Swing Districts As he moves through the third year of his em­ have been damaged for the general election. Yet he battled Presidency - faced with a challenge from emerged with 77.5 percent of the vote, first among within his own party - Richard Nixon might find seriously contested Republican Congressmen and sixth hope in the politics of two widely separate and radical­ overall in the size of his victory. ly different Congressional districts: one in the Mid­ The Midwestern incumbent was not far behind west and one in his native state of California. Al­ either in support for the Administration or in the though both districts are Democratic in registration, size of his majority (69.3 percent). Both Republican they comprise key segments of possible national ma­ incumbents, one in his second and the other in his jority for the President and his party. third race, thus won majorities far exceeding the Wal­ The California district is dominated by middle in­ lace and Nixon or Wallace and Humphrey votes com­ come suburbanites - un-young, un-poor, and un-black bined. In fact the Californian won the seat in 1968 - reflecting the ascendant demography of the latest with a percentage 32 above Humphrey's and 34 above census. Though containing a few students, blacks, and Nixon's. Anyone interested in contriving Republican relatively wealthy whites, it is a suburb of the type majorities through Phillips' mode of adding the Wal­ which should become a mainstay of a nationally preva­ lace and Nixon votes might contemplate these far lent Republicanism. It went narrowly to Humphrey greater totals achieved without the veiled appeals to in 1968 but Nixon and Wallace together won 52.2 anti-black sentiment favored by Phillips. In both cases percent of the vote - in the theory of Kevin Phil­ the candidate won majorities among both races. lips thus forming an "'emerging republican majority." It is a constituen::y near the ideological center of the THE TWO WINNERS Although the relationship cetween Presidential California electorate and perhaps near the prospective and Congressional strategies and results is complex, axis of American politics as well: the kind of middle the Republican landslides in these two Congressional American district that Ricahrd Nixon must win in districts should point to the possibility of a more 1972 if he is to defeat a stronger candidate than promising political approach than the one used in the the riot-torn, joy-ridden Hubert of 1968. Nixon-Agnew campaigns of 1968 and 1970, when AT THE OPPOSITE POLE Republican statewide candidates were overwhelmed in The Midwestern district, on the other hand, is both constituencies. Beyond the failure to face the set in an industrial city in a state written off by Phil­ moral and Constitutional implications of the war, it lips in his Emerging Republican Majority. It is a dis­ is the refusal of Administration strategists to even trict fraught with the urban crisis - impoverished consider such changes in political approach that has ghettos, rising welfare rolls and property taxes, frus­ led the two loyal Republican Congressmen who won trated and embittered ethnic communities. Catholics, these majorities to fear for the future of their party. union members, and Democrats predominate. Yet ra­ And these two men, Paul N. ("Pete") McCloskey of cial tensions are undermining the traditional urban San Mateo, California, and Donald Riegle of Flint, Democratic coalition, and Humphrey defeated Nixon Michigan are now moving, each in his own way, to a by only 4 percent despite the huge Democratic reg­ position of open challenge to the President. istration advantage, with Wallace getting nearly 15 Underlying the specific issues raised in the chal­ percent after early polls giving him as much as a third. lenge therefore, is the persistent question of the po­ If the President could break through in such districts litical future of the Republican party. The two Con­ while maintaining support in the ascendant suburbs gressmen deeply believe that if Nixon's course per­ like the one in California, he could win a national sists the party will be crippled and the President de­ Republican landslide. feated. They cannot conceivably hurt the President Nixon thus should be gratified to learn that the or the Party, they believe, more than the President two districts give overwhelming pluralities to a pair himself is doing. But by dramatizing the depth of of Republican Congressmen who regularly back him their estrangement, they hope to shock the President in House votes. The California incumbent, in fact, into a reappraisal. They recognize that time is short. placed 11 th, ahead of Minority Leader Gerald Ford, For the Democratic landslide has already cegun. in Congressional Quarterly's tabulation of support Although returns are fragmentary at this point, for the Administration. Nonetheless, as the President current registration of young people 18-25, represent­ knows, the road of partisan service is often beleaguer­ ing a potential vote of 25 million, has been more in­ ed; and the Congressman endured a bitter primary tensely Democratic than was expected. Early rates challenge in 1970. There was concern that he might range from 3-1 in suburban areas, to 100-1 in high

17 schools in large cities like Baltimore and New York. dropped to one quarter, suggesting that some 6 mil­ Even in conservative suburbs of Buffalo, where cur­ lion moderates had left the Party. Subsequently the rent registration is 70 percent Republican, early re­ Republicans have returned to a level of about 29 per­ turns show a level of 40 percent among young people. cent. Since the party has accentuated its conservatism And in Orange County, California, that bastion of during this period, one may assume that most of the the American Right, Democrats are leading 5 to 3 new adherents are on the right. Thus the proportion­ - a rate sufficient to give them a registration advan­ ate size of the Party - already only one third of tage in the area by the time of the election, if young the electorate - would appear to have diminished by people register in proportion to their numbers. Among 12 percent between 1962 and 1971, while right wing the college elite, most likely to vote, the national ~trength within it increased by between 50 and 100 Demo::ratic lead is overwhelming. A recent poll in percent. National Rel'iew revealed that only 14 percent of Although these estimates are very rough, they college students on 12 representative campuses identi­ are to some extent confirmed by primary and election fy themselves as Republican, even fewer as conserva­ results. Since 1964, when Rockefeller and Henry Cabot tive. The Republican result is one-third of the find­ Lodge overwhelmed Goldwater in contested primaries, ing in 1961. Although support for the Democrats is also down in the poll, the shift there is to the "radical" REAGAN AND THE POllS category. Though consert'atitJes have been touting the HARBINGER OF BAD NEWS May Gallup poll as proof the party has shifted flIYther to the fight, their arithmetic is faulty. Such portentous developments - together with Fortune poll indicating a 10 percent drop in busi­ The Gallup organization asked Republicans ness support for the party - may be shrugged off by who they would like to see as the party nomi­ a Repu ';lican Administration in office in 1971. They nee if Nixon decided not to run. The resltits were: cannot be ignored by young politicians with a deep Reagan 31 percent, Agnew 25, Rockefeller 19, Rom­ personal stake in the future of the party. And there ney 12, Percy 11, Lindsay 11, Hatfield 7 and Mc­ is reason to believe that even in the short run the Closkey 1. You don't need a computer to see that President is in electoral trouble far beyond his present while the Reagan-Agnew total is 56 percent, the ronception - and far beyond any inconvenience or combined moderates poll 61 percent. Adding in the threat represented by the McCloskey campaign. As a ttndecideds, the final total is 124 percent, since matter of fact the President's very strength within the some people suggested more than one nominee. party - 80 percent approval according to Gallup Rockefeller, as the leading moderate, looks like the - may be a manifestation of his weakness outside it. real winner of the poll. Although poll data is always open to question, there In another poll, Mervin Field of California is evidence to indicate a significant shift in the Party's suggested that President Nixon's ability to carry composition that makes it less responsive to changes California iJ now less than it was six months ago. in the electorate as a whole, less representative of the In NozJember, 1970, the results of a Field trial heat national demography than it was in the past. were Nixon 47 percent with 41 percent for either MIISkie or Kennedy,· Nixon led Humphrey 52 to 30. In 1964, at the time of the GOP convention, The April-May sampling showed Nixon be­ when Republicans might have been expected to rally hind Muskie, 44 to 45, trailing Kennedy 46 to 43, to their inevitable nominee, Barry Goldwater, only 25 bllt edging Humphrey 45 to 41. per::ent indicated the Arizonan as their first choice. In If Nixon did not run and Reagan was the a two way contest Governor William Scranton's ex­ candidate, the poll showed him losing California temporized candidacy won over 65 percent Republican to Mllskie 53 10 33 percent, to Kennedy 54 to 34 support. Yet today almost 50 percent of the Party and to Humphrey 46 to 38. Agnew wOltld do even indicates preference for Goldwater's present counter­ tl'orse according to the survey. parts, Ronald Reagan or Spiro Agnew, in a race with­ None the less, withollt Nixon, Reagan is the out Nixon. This figure indicates;a. :,near doubling of fit'st choice of 40 percent of California Republicans right wing strength in the Party during the last seven and Agnew the favorite of 21 percent. Rockefeller years. trails with 18 percent, Lindsay with 17, and Mc­ Other indicators confirm a significant shift, though Closkey with 5. It appears that as in the case of less than 100 percent, in favor of the right wing. Goldwater, MIIYphy and Rafferty, to win a Califor­ Gallup polls in the years before 1964 disclosed that nia Republican primary it still may help to be a about a third of the voters identified themselves as sure loser in the general election. Republicans. After the Goldwater debacle this figure

18 tor Robert Dole and former Delaware National Com­ mitteeman Tom Evans. The meetings were amiable. A 14a ELIOT STREET number of proposals were discussed which should receive • Chairman of the Board M4chael Brewer has re­ attention shortly. signed his Ripon office as of this month to join the " As part of its expanding activities, Ripon held McCloskey campaign. It has been standard practice for a reception on May 26 in the Cannon House Office Build­ Ripon members to leave official positions in the Society ing in Washington to introduce the Society's new of­ when joining a campaign for major office. In 1968 sev­ ficers and staff to Republican Congressmen, Administra­ eral Riponers took leaves-of-absence while working on tion officials, Congressional staffers and representatives the Nixon-for-President staff. of various interest groups. • The Ripon Society of Chicago has elected Paul Over 150 people attended the reception, including F. Anderson to the National Governing Board to replace 15 Congressmen (and representatives of many more), George H. Walker, m. "Bert" Walker is returning to John Gardner, chairman of Common Cause, labor union the home office of G. H. Walker & Co. in St. Louis after people, White House staff, department and agency line a half-a-dozen years in Chicago; the investment banking and staff officials and officers of several political action firm was recently incorporated and Bert elected Chair­ groups. man of the Executive Committee. • Congressman Donald Riegle was the featured Paul Anderson was a White House Fellow in 1968- guest at a Ripon reception held by the new Detroit­ 69 and became a Vice President of Booz, Allen & Hamil­ Ann Arbor chapter on June 4th. The 60 people attending ton, Inc. last September. the affair included several state legislators, and Howard • A delegation from Ripon consisting of Howard Gillette (Ripon's President) and Robert Hehn (National Gillette, Howard Reiter, Dan SwilJJnger and Evelyn EllIs Executive Director). The list of patrons for the event paid its respects May 25 and 26 to the new national included Governor WllUam Milliken and Senator Robert leadership at the Republican National Committee, Sena- GrUHn. important progressive Republicans have suffered a Vice President with such clamorous unanimity that series of defeats at the hands of relatively obscure they are tempted to ignore the silent or at least less conservatives, who in turn have been massively de­ audible majorities of dissidents outside. The changing feated in general elections. This pattern - the syn­ conditions within the party thus may allow the Presi­ drome of a minority party on a binge of morbid dent to insulate himself from conditions in the coun­ introversion - occurred most prominently in Califor­ try at large. He may be able to slough off the McClos­ nia where Max Rafferty beat Republican Whip Tom key challenge at the expense of the Republican future. Kuchel; in New York, where State Senator John The Administration's long hostility toward pro­ Marchi defeated Mayor Lindsay; in New Mexico where gressive Republican congressmen and senators in­ Anderson Carter defeated Governor David Cargo; dicates that certain White House advisers may be will­ and in Idaho, where Don Samuelson beat the Chair­ ing to run that risk under the pretext of what the man of the Republican Governors Association, Robert Ripon Society has called a revolving door strategy, E. Smylie. Senator Goodell's failure to win the Re­ exchanging incumbent progressives for hypothetical publican vote against Conservative James Buckley in Wallace voters. And if the ultimate goal is to make New York may be a further case in point, as could it impossible for progressive Republicans to win their be the pathetic ~ollapse of George Romney in the 1968 party's primaries, Nixon's strategists may be happy New Hampshire Republican primary. Progressives and to know that most of the party's progressive incum­ moderates still command about half the Party mem­ bents are already feeling the heat. Mayor Lindsay and bership and Governor Rockefeller, third behind Reagan at least one Senator, in fact, may already be well-done. and Agnew in the Gallup poll, still may hold the If, however, the President wants reelection, he balance of power. But it would appear that moderate would be better advised to forget about the Wallace Republicans are both weaker within the Party now vote and attend to the grievances of progressive Re­ than at any previous time this century - and more publicans like Congressman McCloskey who, rather needed for a suc::essful race against the Democrats. than step meekly out of the revolving door on the This problem was only aggravated in 1970 when other side, come back around to confront the bouncer. the Administration tried to overcome it by appeal­ It is still not too late. It is still perfectly pos­ ing to the Wallace vote. The results do not bode sible for the President to make the McCloskey chal­ well for 1972. In states like California, Indiana and lenge unnecessary. Nixon remains potentially the best illinois, the party did worse in 1970 than in 1968, and most constructive President of recent decades. If though Wallace was not on the ballot and "'Repub­ he ends the war and commits himself fully to his lican candidates simulated his appeals as they snarl­ programs of domestic reform, he can create the kind ed and stumbled to defeat. Even in states like the of real Republican majorities that McCloskey and Dakotas Republicans suffered defections not simply Riegle have assembled in districts perhaps less Re­ at the top of the ticket but also in state legislative publican than the nation at large. And he may be races, indicating attrition of fundamental Republican surprised to discover that these majorities give him strength. more real support in governing than the right wing The danger today is that these smaller parties, coalition he is assembling today. ideologically purer, will applaud the President and GEORGE F. GILDER. 19 t. CALI~ORN'A CORNER Sympathy For Sale

The cozy relationship be­ to dose tax loopholes, control pollution, promote con­ tween certain Democratic sumer protection, and, of course, to reform the politi­ legislators and Sacramen­ cal system itself. Money taken from the taxpayers to to lobbyists is becoming help the disadvantaged is siphoned off by special in­ brazenly open. Complaints terests en route while problems grow worse. The sys­ by Democratic Senator Al tem is perpetuated by massive lobbyist contributions Song about the failure of which ensure the re-election of the lobbyists' favorites. special interest groups to Campaign expenditures and their sources are public support him in the man­ record. ner to which he had be­ Hope for reforming the system waxed last year come accustomed attracted press attention when ~v­ when a group of reform-minded Republicans headed eral lobbyists made public a series of high-pressure by Senator Howard Way gained control of the Sen­ letters sent out by Senator Song's office. ate and commenced to reorganize the committee struc­ Senator Song wrote to protest the failure of lob­ ture. Their success was shortlived, however. A rump byists to buy sufficient tickets to his recent testimonial group of eight conservative Republicans who had lost dinner, in spite of his consistent record of supporting key positions when the reform coalition took over them when they needed help. Song went on to com­ joined hands with 13 Democrats to re-establish Old plain that, even though he had been a sympathetic Guard control of the Senate. This political coup member of the legislature for nine years, no legal created a public uproar since it was soon learned that business had been referred to his office by these groups. the new Old Guard leader, Republican Jack Schrade, had accepted a $5,000 payment from the thrift and CASH QUOTA loan lobby the day before casting the deciding vote Shortly after this incident, the Senate Democratic in committee for a bill to give millions of dollars of caucus held a cocktail party for representatives of new business to the thrift and loan industry. Schrade all major lobbying groups. At the party, each group compounded his problems by advocating an end to received a quota for the number of $1,000 tickets it voting rights for all those receiving government as·· was expected to buy to help the Democratic cam­ sistance. paign in the upcoming special election (in the 27th GOOD FOR THE PARTY Senatorial District). Such incidents suggest that the The Democrats who cast the key 21st vote for Senate is rapidly returning to the style used when Schrade was Mervin Dymally, a black Senator from the Democrats were last in control, during the Hugh South Los Angeles. Dymally was especially embarrass­ Burns era (1957-1969). ed by Schrade's performance. Dymally defended his P1'0bably the two most fundamental and obvious vote with two points; he contended that he had had changes needed to make this state legislature respon­ to go along with the 2/3 of the Democrats support­ sible to the voters and more responsive to their needs ing Schrade or lose his position as leader of the Dem­ are changes in the committee system: open hear­ ocratic caucus; and he pointed out that Democrats had ings and recorded voting on all major bills. For the won several key committee posts as their rewards for key to State Senate operations is secret committee supporting &hrade. Old Guard stalwarts Randolph voting. No public records are kept of attendance or Collier and Ralph Dills (both first elected in 1938) voting in committee, and an absolute majority of com­ were appointed chairmen of the Transportation and mittee members is required to report a bill to the Public Utilities Committees, and AI Song was made floor. This gives maximum control to Senators from Chairman of the Business and Professions Committee. safe districts with the most seniority (the Old Guard); As it worked out, Democrats did come out ahead; it also reduces the visibility of crucial legislative de­ they were able to use these committee chairmanships cisions and maximizes the influence of lobbyists. Most to raise substantial funds from lobbyists - funds of the dirty work is done in the so-called "graveyard which were spent to help the Democrats regain con­ committees." During the 1969 session, for example, trol of the Senate. The greatest beneficiaries were the the notorious Governmental Efficiency Committee committee chairmen themselves. They were able to prevented 124 of the 134 contested bills it received raise handsome campaign funds and make mincemeat from going to the floor for a vote. This special in­ of their Republican challengers. Senator Collier was terest domination effectively prevents action on bills - please tum to page 13 20