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Assessment of Relative Economic Consequences of Curtailment of Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Ground Water Irrigation Rights

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Assessment of Relative Economic Consequences of Curtailment of Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Ground Water Irrigation Rights Assessment of Relative Economic Consequences of Curtailment of Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Ground Water Irrigation Rights by Donald L. Snyder, Ph.D. Utah State University and Roger H. Coupal, Ph.D. University of Wyoming February 2005 Assessment of Relative Economic Consequences of Curtailment of Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Irrigation Ground Water Rights Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................. viii Summary of Net Effects of Curtailment of Two Scenarios .............. xi 1949 Curtailment Date Effects for the ESPA and State of Idaho . xi 1961 Curtailment Date Effects for the ESPA and State of Idaho . xiii Summary of Relative Differences ................................. xv 1949 Curtailment Date .......................................... xvi Aquaculture Water Right Holders . xvi Senior Surface/Spring Irrigation Water Right Holders . xvi Combined Surface/Spring Irrigation and Aquaculture Water Right Holders . xvi Losses to Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders . xvi 1961 Curtailment Date .......................................... xvi Aquaculture Water Right Holders . xvi Senior Surface/Spring Irrigation Water Right Holders . xvi Combined Surface/Spring Irrigation and Aquaculture Water Right Holders . xvi Losses to Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders . xvii Conclusions ..................................................xvii Part I: Brief Background .............................................. 1 Scope of Work ................................................. 1 Geographic Study Area .......................................... 4 Idaho Agriculture and Aquaculture ................................ 5 History of ESPA Water Development ............................... 8 Parties Considered for Study Purposes . 10 Other Externally Impacted Parties . 11 Part II: Modeling Economic Impacts .................................... 13 Introduction .................................................. 13 IMPLAN ...................................................... 13 Study Assumptions ............................................ 15 General Assumptions ...................................... 16 -i- Assumptions Specific to Aquaculture Production and Value . 16 Assumptions Specific to Irrigated and Nonirrigated Crops . 16 Part III: Impacts to Senior Surface/Spring Irrigation Water Right Holders ..... 18 Introduction .................................................. 18 1949 and 1961 ESPA-Level Curtailment Impacts .................... 22 1949 and 1961 State-Level Curtailment Impacts ..................... 24 Part IV: Impacts to Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders ................ 26 Introduction .................................................. 26 1949 ESPA-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................ 26 1949 State-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................. 28 1961 ESPA-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................ 30 1961 State-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................. 31 Part V: Impacts to Existing Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders .... 34 Introduction .................................................. 34 1949 ESPA-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................ 35 1949 State-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................. 37 1961 ESPA-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................ 39 1961 State-Level Curtailment Impacts ............................. 40 Part VI: Net Impacts ................................................. 43 Introduction .................................................. 43 1949 ESPA-Level Curtailment Net Impacts ......................... 43 1949 State-Level Curtailment Net Impacts .......................... 44 1961 ESPA-Level Curtailment Net Impacts ......................... 46 1961 State-Level Curtailment Net Impacts .......................... 48 Part VII: Summary and Conclusions .................................... 50 Summary ..................................................... 50 Suggestions for Further Analyses ................................ 53 Appendix A: Comparison of Gain and Loss Flows Over 10 Years ............ 56 Appendix B: IMPLAN Model Description, Inputs, and Outputs .............. 58 Appendix C: Aggregated Sectors Used in the Analyses .................... 57 References ........................................................ 67 -ii- List of Tables Table I. Net and Percentage of Gains by Senior Surface/Spring Irrigation Water Right Holders Relative to Net and Percentage Losses by Ground Water Right Holders ..................... xiv Table 1-1. Value of Gross Output by Commodity for the State of Idaho, 2003 ....................................... 5 Table 2-1. List of Aggregated Sectors for IMPLAN Used in ESPA Analyses .. 15 Table 3-1. Crop Mix Pre-Ground Water Curtailment for ESPA .............. 19 Table 3-2. Crop Mix Post-Ground Water Curtailment for ESPA ............. 20 Table 3-3. Additional Gross Revenue Allowed Per Acre for New Crop Mix Under Post-Curtailment Conditions .......... 21 Table 5-1. Acreage Taken Out of Production by Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates ....... 35 Table 7-1. Summary of Impacts to Primarily Impacted Parties, 1949 and 1961 ........................................... 50 Table B-1. Examples of Multipliers with 80% and 50% Leakage ............ 61 Table B-2. Industry-to-Industry Multipliers for a Simplified Economy ........ 64 Table B-3. Total Output, Value Added, and Value Added Components for a Sample County ...................................... 65 Table C-1. Basic Industry Aggregation Description ...................... 66 -iii- List of Figures Figure I. Net Value Added Gains and Losses for Senior Irrigation and Aquaculture and Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA and State for a 1949 Curtailment Date ............. x Figure II. Job Number Gains and Losses for Senior Irrigation and Aquaculture and Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA and State for a 1949 Curtailment Date ............. xi Figure III. Net Value Added Gains and Losses for Senior Irrigation and Aquaculture and Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA and State for a 1961 Curtailment Date ............. xii Figure IV. Job Number Gains and Losses for Senior Irrigation and Aquaculture and Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA and State for a 1961 Curtailment Date ............ xiii Figure 1-1. Outline of the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer ..................... 4 Figure 1-2. Distribution of Agricultural Commodities and Aquaculture by Gross Sales for the State of Idaho ........................ 6 Figure 1-3. Distribution of Crop and Aquaculture Values for the State of Idaho ...................................... 7 Figure 1-4. Distribution of Crop and Aquaculture Values for the ESPA Region ...................................... 8 Figure 3-1. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Surface/Spring Irrigation Water Right Holders in the ESPA for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates ............. 23 Figure 3-2. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Surface Water Right Holders in the ESPA for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates ........................ 23 Figure 3-3. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Surface Water Right Holders in the State for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates .. 24 Figure 3-4. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Surface Water Right Holders in the State for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates ........................ 25 Figure 3-5. ESPA- and State-Level Job Numbers for Senior Surface Water Right Holders for 1949 and 1961 Curtailment Dates ...... 25 Figure 4-1. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the ESPA for a 1949 Curtailment Date ......... 27 -iv- Figure 4-2. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the ESPA for a 1949 Curtailment Date ... 27 Figure 4-3. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the State for a 1949 Curtailment Date ......... 28 Figure 4-4. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the State for a 1949 Curtailment Date .... 29 Figure 4-5. ESPA- and State-Level Job Numbers for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders for a 1949 Curtailment Date .............. 29 Figure 4-6. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the ESPA for a 1961 Curtailment Date ......... 30 Figure 4-7. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the ESPA for a 1961 Curtailment Date ... 31 Figure 4-8. Value Added Component Gains for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the State for a 1961 Curtailment Date ......... 32 Figure 4-9. Added Value and Gross Value of Output for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders in the State for a 1961 Curtailment Date .... 32 Figure 4-10. ESPA- and State-Level Job Numbers for Senior Aquaculture Water Right Holders for a 1961 Curtailment Date .............. 33 Figure 5-1. Value Added Component Losses for Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA for 1949 Curtailment Date .... 36 Figure 5-2. Added Value and Gross Value of Output Net Losses for Junior Ground Water Right Holders in the ESPA for a 1949 Curtailment Date ................................ 36 Figure 5-3. Value Added Component Losses for Junior Irrigation Ground Water Right Holders in the State for a 1961 Curtailment Date .... 37 Figure 5-4. Added Value and Gross Value of Output Net Losses for Junior Ground Water Right Holders in the
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