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Kiatnakin Bank PLC COMPANY UPDATE Kiatnakin Bank PLC January 25, 2012 NEUTRAL Moving into a year of transformation Merging with PHATRA, sets moderate targets, raises LLR coverage Stock Data Ambitious goal of raising CASA mix Last close (Jan 24) (Bt) 31.50 New fees bring risk; TP and forecast under review until numbers available 12-m target price (Bt) 38.00 Upside (Downside) to TP (%) 20.63 Moderate 2012 loan growth & NPA sale target. KK set moderate 2012 loan Mkt cap (Btbn) 19.99 growth target at 21% (vs. 26.5% for 2011), focusing on auto loans (71% of total), with a Mkt cap (US$mn) 636 forecast of 2012F domestic car sales at 0.957-1mn units (21-26% growth). Hit by the Bloomberg code KK TB floods, real estate loans (12% of loans) are expected to be flat in 2012. It plans to bulk Reuters code KK.BK up NPA sales to Bt3.5bn in 2012 from Bt3.2bn in 2011. Risk rating H LLR coverage upped ahead of rising NPLs. KK expects the floods to raise NPLs to Mkt cap (%) SET 0.23 Sector % SET 17.33 3.5-3.7% of total loans in 2012 vs. 3.4% at YE2011 and thus lifted LLR coverage to 108% Shares issued (mn) 635 at 4Q11 from 95% at 3Q11. Of concern are its real estate loans, one-third of which are Par value (Bt) 10 out to flood-impacted projects; plus ~15,000 of its 300,000 auto loan clients asked for a 12-m high / low (Bt) 37.8 / 25.8 6-month debt moratorium. To keep its aim of LLR coverage above 100% in 2012, we Avg. daily 6m (US$mn) 2.72 expect similar 2012F provisions as in 2011 at Bt1.3bn, giving 108% coverage. Foreign limit / actual (%) 44 / 33 Free float (%) 64.8 Ambitious aim to raise CASA mix. KK is working to lift the ratio of current & saving Dividend policy (%) 60 deposits (CASA) to interest-bearing liabilities to 20% from 7% at YE2011 to ease cost of funds. To this end, it now offers the sector’s highest passbook savings rate of 3%. KK’s cost of funds was 3.3% (excluding deposit guarantee fee) in 2011 and we calculate that Price Performance raising CASA to 20% from 7% would reduce cost of funds by ~5 bps. We do feel it is overly ambitious in its goal of keeping NIM stable this year and forecast NIM (not Price (Bt) 50 including the effect of merging with PHATRA) to slip 37 bps in 2012F vs. 50 bps in 2011. 40 30 KK-PHATRA merger. KK is moving to merge with PHATRA and will make a delisting 20 tender offer to purchase all of PHATRA’s shares, giving investors newly issued KK shares 10 0 with the swap ratio set at 1 PHATRA share for 0.9135 KK shares. To accommodate the share swap, KK will issue 192mn shares, equivalent to 23% of total post-merger shares Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-10 Apr-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 (826.6 mn). It expects this to wind up in 3Q12 (August). There is no duplication in either KK — Stock Price KK — Rel. to SET (rebased) their business models or client groups and thus the merger will create an entity with a Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research dual specialization - commercial banking run by KK and investment banking run by PHATRA. The merger is expected to create synergy in four main areas: 1) corporate lending, 2) debt market, 3) private wealth, 4) investment. We calculate the merger will Share performances raise KK’s L-T ROE by 160-180 bps as the yearly earnings contribution from PHATRA is 1M 3M 12M larger than the dilution brought by issuing new shares. Absolute -2.3 16.7 -9.4 Relative to SET -5.1 3.4 -18.2 New fees bring risk. The government has enacted an executive decree that will Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research transfer the responsibility of paying off the FIDF debt plus interest to the BoT from the MoF. In turn, the BoT will call on banks to shoulder some of the burden via additional fees, now focusing on a certain percentage of deposits –estimated at ~12 bps of total deposits - plus another 35 bps on B/Es. The combined impact of the two new FIDF fees Kittima Sattayapan, CFA (66-2) 949-1003 is estimated to be ~9% of KK’s 2012F earnings. [email protected] Recommendation and target price is under review. Our target price and recommendation for KK are under review as we wait to incorporate the negative impact from the FIDF fee charges once they are finalized by the BoT. Forecasts and valuation FY Dec Unit 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Pre-provision profit (Bt mn) 3,487 4,137 4,230 5,005 5,075 Net profit (Bt mn) 2,840 2,859 2,945 3,957 4,105 PPP/Sh (Bt) 6.16 6.52 5.12 7.66 7.77 EPS (Bt) 5.02 4.51 3.56 6.06 6.28 BVPS (Bt) 36.53 36.60 34.80 46.86 49.85 DPS (Bt) 2.40 2.25 1.78 3.03 3.14 PER (x) 6.28 6.99 8.84 5.20 5.02 P/PPP (x) 5.11 4.83 6.15 4.11 4.06 EPS growth (%) 17.83 (10.21) (20.93) 69.90 3.73 PBV (x) 0.86 0.86 0.91 0.67 0.63 ROE (%) 14.72 13.03 11.33 13.33 12.99 Dividend yields (%) 7.62 7.15 5.66 9.61 9.97 Source: SCBS Investment Research Tel. (662) 949-1000 The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein reflect Fax: (662) 949-1030 our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy www.scbs.com any securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an interest in the companies mentioned therein. Kiatnakin Bank PLC January 25, 2012 Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) FY December 31 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F FY December 31 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Interest & dividend income 8,776 11,296 13,767 15,809 17,765 Interest & dividend income 2,393 2,459 2,687 3,061 3,090 Interest expense 2,942 4,821 6,447 7,594 8,797 Interest expense 812 871 1,033 1,384 1,532 Net interest income 5,834 6,476 7,320 8,215 8,968 Net interest income 1,581 1,587 1,655 1,676 1,557 Non-interest income 3,521 3,208 3,755 5,508 5,663 Non-interest income 958 580 854 908 866 Non-interest expenses 4,629 4,985 6,087 7,785 8,557 Non-interest expenses 1,749 1,149 1,261 1,108 1,466 Earnings before tax & provision 4,726 4,699 4,988 5,939 6,074 Earnings before tax & provision 790 1,018 1,248 1,477 957 Tax 1,213 535 731 906 972 Tax 466 251 260 215 (191) Equities & minority interest (26) (27) (27) (27) (27) Equities & minority interest (14) (4) (7) (15) (2) Core pre-provision profit 3,487 4,137 4,230 5,005 5,075 Core pre-provision profit 310 763 980 1,246 1,147 Provision 647 1,278 1,285 1,048 970 Provision (181) 158 284 372 464 Core net profit 2,840 2,859 2,945 3,957 4,105 Core net profit 491 605 697 874 683 Extra item - - - - -Extra item 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit 2,840 2,859 2,945 3,957 4,105 Net profit 491 605 697 874 683 EPS (Bt) 5.02 4.51 3.56 6.06 6.28 EPS (Bt) 0.87 0.95 1.10 1.38 1.08 DPS (Bt) 2.40 2.25 1.78 3.03 3.14 Balance Sheet (Btmn) Balance Sheet (Btmn) FY December 31 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F FY December 31 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Cash 282 382 2,827 3,211 3,539 Cash 282 350 337 394 382 Interbank assets 7,912 16,081 16,081 16,081 16,081 Interbank assets 7,912 11,520 17,891 20,928 16,081 Investments 12,293 26,753 29,957 30,131 30,321 Investments 12,293 13,455 18,627 21,275 26,753 Gross loans 107,726 135,749 166,927 191,549 219,879 Gross loans 107,726 115,079 121,923 130,164 135,749 Loan loss reserve 4,235 5,120 6,405 7,452 8,422 Loan loss reserve 4,235 4,155 4,341 4,642 5,120 Net loans 104,078 131,427 161,400 185,062 212,519 Net loans 104,078 111,536 118,235 126,210 131,427 Total assets 141,900 189,327 223,280 245,647 272,025 Total assets 141,900 154,261 173,035 184,921 189,327 Deposits 75,932 69,040 93,203 113,335 137,476 Deposits 75,932 72,226 65,267 68,316 69,040 Interbank liabilities 3,202 5,220 4,962 5,062 5,062 Interbank liabilities 3,202 2,710 10,494 7,305 5,220 Borrowings 35,307 86,013 86,913 86,913 86,913 Borrowings 35,307 50,736 68,379 81,028 86,013 Total liabilities 120,989 165,731 194,140 214,642 239,065 Total liabilities 120,989 131,434 150,482 162,135 165,731 Minority interest 241 379 379 379 379 Minority interest 241 243 245 375 379 Paid-up capital 5,658 6,343 8,264 6,535 6,535 Paid-up capital 5,658 6,343 6,343 6,343 6,343 Total Equities 20,671 23,216 28,761 30,626 32,581 Total Equities 20,671 22,585 22,308 22,410 23,216 BVPS (Bt) 36.53 36.60 34.80 46.86 49.85 BVPS (Bt) 36.53 35.60 35.17 35.33 36.60 Key Financial Ratios Main Assumptions 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Profitability Loan growth (%) 23.66 26.01 22.97 14.75 14.79 Yield on loans (%) 8.43 8.36 8.07 7.87 7.81 Yield on earning assets (%) 7.19 7.37 7.03 7.01 7.05 Yield on earn'g assets (%) 7.19 7.37 7.03 7.01 7.05 Cost of funds (%) 2.67 3.51 3.73 3.89 4.05 Cost on deposits (%) 2.29 2.87 3.10 3.30 3.50 Net interest margin (%) 4.78 4.23 3.74 3.65 3.56 Cost on int-bear'g liab (%) 2.67 3.51 3.73 3.89 4.05 Non-interest income growth (%) 97.96 (8.89) 17.05 46.70 2.81 Spread (%) 4.51 3.86 3.30 3.12 3.00 Cost to income ratio (%) 49.48 51.47 54.96 56.73 58.48 Net interest margin(%) 4.78 4.23 3.74 3.65 3.56 Provision expense/Total loans (%) 0.60 0.94 0.77 0.55 0.44 ROA (%) 2.11 1.73 1.43 1.69 1.59 NPLs/Total loans (%) 4.62 3.49 3.54 3.21 2.93 Pre-provision ROE (%) 18.08 18.85 16.28 16.86 16.06 PBV Band Chart ROE (%) 14.72 13.03 11.33 13.33 12.99 Asset Quality Price (Bt) PBV Band — KK NPLs (Bt mn) 4,974 4,735 5,904 6,151 6,434 60 NPLs/ Total Loans(%) 4.62 3.49 3.54 3.21 2.93 LLR/NPLs(%) 85.14 108.13 108.48 121.17 130.91 50 1.5x Liquidity 1.3x Loans / Deposits (%) 141.87 196.62 179.10 169.01 159.94 40 Efficiency 1.0x 30 Cost to income ratio (%) 49.48 51.47 54.96 56.73 58.48 0.8x
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