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Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB) Share Price: Bt66.25 Target Price: Bt74.00 (+12.6%)

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Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB) Share Price: Bt66.25 Target Price: Bt74.00 (+12.6%) March 13, 2017 OUTPERFORM Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB) Share Price: Bt66.25 Target Price: Bt74.00 (+12.6%) Company Update Company Best dividend yield among Thai banks Loans to reverse to growth trend after contracting in the past three years, driven by retail loans (non-HP); asset quality to improve further with lower NPL ratio Expect Bt5.5/Bt6.0 DPS for FY17F/18F based on 80% payout ratio; ROE should reach 15% by 2018 Raised FY17-18F net profit by 4% each; maintain OUTPERFORM rating and raised TP to Bt74, implying 11x PE and 1.5x P/BV; stock offers 20% total return including 8% dividend yield Expect positive loan growth with lower NPL ratio Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA We forecast 5% loan growth this year driven by Lombard loans and non- 662 - 659 7000 ext 5004 HP retail lending such as mortgage, micro-SME and personal loans. [email protected] These retail loans helped KKP to report flat loan growth mom in Jan COMPANY RESEARCH | RESEARCH COMPANY Remark: KSS is a subsidiary of Bank of Ayudhya Plc. 2017 vs 0.8-1.0% contraction at other banks which focus on HP. We and is therefore unable to issue a report on Bank of expect flat growth for HP loans this year, after contracting 6.4%/2.7% in Ayudhya Plc. 2015/ 2016, led by growth of used car loans (including car quick-cash) which will offset drop in new car loans. On asset quality, we forecast Key Data NPL ratio will improve further to 5.20% in 2017 from 5.65% in 2016, led 12-mth high/low (Bt) 68 / 39.5 by improving quality of HP and real estate loans. Credit cost should Market capital (Btm/US$m) 56,097 / 1,604.5 decline to 1.2% from 1.3% in 2016. 3m avg. turnover (Btm/US$m) 319.5 / 9.1 Free float (%) 55.1 Issued shares (m shares) 847 Raised FY17-18F earnings and DPS; ROE should reach 15% in 2018 Major shareholders: We raised FY17-18F earnings by 4% each after imputing higher NIM. - THAI NVDR CO LTD 16.0 The yield curve has risen sharply but we expect funding cost to drop by - CREDIT SUISSE GROUP 8.5 10bp following repricing of high-cost deposits this year. NIM should be - CHASE NOMINEES LIMITED 4.2 stable yoy at 4.8% vs the bank’s target of 4.7-4.9%. Given aggressive capital management, we raised dividend payout ratio to 80% (from 67%) Share Price Performance and forecast Bt5.5 and Bt6.0 DPS for this year and next. After that, payout ratio is expected to drop to 70% after its ROE reaches 15% in 2018. KKP is over-capitalized now as Tier I ratio is 15% (vs industry average of 14%) and would reach 16.9% including 2H16 net profit. OUTPERFORM, capital management to boost ROE and DPS We revised up TP to Bt74 from Bt65 to reflect higher profitability and dividend payout. Although the share price has risen 12% YTD, there is still upside from higher ROE ahead. Meanwhile, downside risk is limited as the stock offers 8-9% dividend yield for the next three years. Financial Summary (Btm) YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth Absolute (%) Year to Dec 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 12.3 8.6 14.7 52.3 Relative to index (%) 11.2 10.7 10.9 36.3 Operating Income 14,252 16,156 16,744 18,023 19,278 Pre-provisioning Profit 7,235 8,803 9,024 9,686 10,274 Krungsri Securities vs Market Net Profit 3,317 5,547 5,764 6,264 6,661 Positive Neutral Negative Basic EPS (Bt) 3.93 6.55 6.81 7.40 7.87 Market EPS growth (%) 20.8 66.8 3.9 8.7 6.3 Recommend 10 8 2 DPS (Bt) 3.00 6.00 5.50 6.00 5.50 Krungsri Market % +/- Target Price (Bt) 74.0 61.9 19.5 PER (x) 16.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.4 ’17 Net Profit (Btm) 5,764 5,591 3.1 Div Yield (%) 4.5 9.1 8.3 9.1 8.3 ’18 Net Profit (Btm) 6,264 5,926 5.7 P/BV (x) 1.48 1.39 1.35 1.32 1.26 Book Value (Bt) 44.79 47.59 48.90 50.30 52.66 Krungsri's earnings revision ROAE (%) 8.9 14.2 14.1 14.9 15.3 2017F 2018F ROAA (%) 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 Earnings revision (%) 4.3 4.3 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | KKP March 1 3, 2017 KKP reported better-than-peers loan growth in Jan 2017 Chg Chg Chg Loans (Btbn) Jan-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 YoY MoM YTD BBL 1,833 1,898 1,862 1.6% -1.9% -1.9% KTB 1,965 1,844 1,843 -6.2% -0.1% -0.1% KBANK 1,590 1,676 1,681 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% SCB 1,819 1,931 1,915 5.3% -0.8% -0.8% TMB 579 594 603 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% TCAP 711 693 688 -3.4% -0.8% -0.8% TISCO 237 225 223 -5.8% -1.0% -1.0% KKP 180 179 179 -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Sector 8,915 9,042 8,996 0.9% -0.5% -0.5% Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities KKP: Raised FY17-18F earnings and DPS after imputing higher NIM and payout assumptions New Previous Key assumptions 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F Loan growth 5.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% NIM 4.84% 4.75% 4.76% 4.67% OPEX growth 5.0% 8.0% 5.0% 8.0% Credit cost 1.20% 1.15% 1.20% 1.15% Net profit (Bt m) 5,764 6,264 5,527 6,007 % Chg in net profit 4.3% 4.3% DPS (Bt) 5.50 6.00 4.50 5.00 Dividend payout ratio 80.8% 81.1% 68.9% 70.0% ROE (%) 14.1% 14.9% 13.4% 14.0% Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities KKP: FY17 key financial targets 2016A 2017 Targets ROE 14.2% 13.0-15.0% Loan growth -0.8% > 5.0% NPL ratio 5.6% < 5.2% Loan spread 4.9% 4.7-4.9% Credit cost (Excl. general reserve)* 0.7% 1.2% Noted* Credit cost including loss from sale of repossessed cars Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities P/E Band P/BV Band Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | KKP March 13 , 2017 Peer comparison Market PE P/BV Div Yield ROE Share Price Cap (x) (x) (%) (%) Performance BB Ticker Name US$ 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 17F 1M 3M 6M YTD Thailand BAY TB BANK OF AYUDHYA PCL 8,104 12.1 10.5 1.3 1.2 2.52 11.1 (1.3) 1.3 8.3 (2.5) BBL TB BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD 9,814 9.8 9.0 0.8 0.8 3.57 9.1 (0.3) 14.8 10.6 14.1 KBANK TB KASIKORNBANK PCL 12,845 11.8 10.5 1.2 1.1 2.11 11.8 (4.0) 9.2 2.4 7.0 KTB TB KRUNG THAI BANK PUB CO LTD 7,896 8.6 8.0 1.0 0.9 4.40 11.5 3.1 13.6 14.3 13.0 KKP TB KIATNAKIN BANK PCL 1,585 9.7 9.0 1.3 1.3 8.30 14.9 8.6 14.7 37.3 12.3 SCB TB SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUB CO 14,818 10.2 9.5 1.4 1.3 3.88 14.8 0.3 3.0 6.2 1.3 TCAP TB THANACHART CAPITAL PCL 1,539 8.2 8.3 0.9 0.8 4.71 10.4 (4.6) 5.6 21.4 6.3 TISCO TB TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP PCL 1,481 9.2 7.9 1.5 1.4 4.43 18.1 (2.2) 24.2 28.4 8.7 TMB TB TMB BANK PCL 2,970 11.9 10.3 1.2 1.1 2.51 10.9 (2.4) 14.3 12.1 14.3 Average 10.2 9.2 1.2 1.1 4.0 12.5 Malaysia MAY MK MALAYAN BANKING BHD 20,075 13.1 12.5 1.3 1.2 5.88 9.9 5.7 10.9 10.3 7.0 CIMB MK CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD 10,695 11.2 10.1 1.0 0.9 3.76 9.1 5.7 15.5 9.6 19.1 PBK MK PUBLIC BANK BERHAD 17,170 14.7 13.9 2.1 1.9 3.02 14.8 (1.5) 0.9 0.0 0.4 Average 13.0 12.2 1.4 1.4 4.2 11.2 Indonesia BBCA IJ BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT 28,800 19.4 17.2 3.5 3.0 1.15 19.8 4.2 6.3 3.8 0.8 BBRI IJ BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSER 22,270 10.7 9.5 1.8 1.6 2.90 18.4 0.4 5.2 2.8 3.4 BMRI IJ BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PT 19,886 13.2 11.0 1.6 1.5 2.23 12.7 0.0 3.9 5.1 (1.5) Average 14.4 12.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 17.0 Singapore DBS SP DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD 33,932 10.6 9.6 1.0 1.0 3.25 10.1 (0.2) 6.2 22.6 9.2 UOB SP UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD 24,672 11.1 10.3 1.0 1.0 3.39 9.7 2.3 2.3 14.2 4.9 OCBC SP OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP 28,199 11.1 10.2 1.1 1.0 3.83 9.6 (1.9) 3.2 8.5 7.2 Average 10.9 10.1 1.0 1.0 3.5 9.8 Philippines BPI PM BANK OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLAN 7,620 16.9 14.6 2.1 1.9 2.02 13.4 4.8 6.7 (7.1) 9.8 MBT PM METROPOLITAN BANK & TRUST 4,874 13.3 11.9 1.2 1.1 1.27 9.4 (0.3) 0.9 (8.8) 6.1 BDO PM BDO UNIBANK INC 10,458 17.3 14.9 1.8 1.6 1.22 11.2 5.1 9.8 13.0 12.4 PNB PM PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK 1,441 10.5 9.9 0.7 0.6 1.03 6.5 (2.0) 6.3 0.9 6.2 SECB PM SECURITY BANK CORP 2,998 16.4 15.5 1.5 1.4 0.96 11.2 (6.1) (0.5) (19.2) 5.3 UBP PM UNION BANK OF PHILIPPINES 1,667 11.4 10.3 1.3 1.2 1.81 13.3 0.5 6.2 7.6 6.2 RCB PM RIZAL COMMERCIAL BANKING 1,075 10.9 9.8 0.8 0.8 2.49 7.8 (3.9) 7.8 10.3 15.1 Average 13.8 12.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 10.4 Average (Simple) 12.1 11.0 1.4 1.3 3.1 12.0 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 3 Company Update | KKP March 1 3, 2017 Financial statement (Btm) 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Balance sheet Loans 177,681 175,770 175,109 175,302 176,355 Deposits 104,327 99,530 106,039 107,309 109,923 Income statement Interest income 3,743 3,493 3,668 4,041 3,666 Interest expenses (1,174) (1,156) (1,133) (1,082) (1,065) Net interest income 2,569 2,337 2,535 2,959 2,602 Net fee and service income 953 900 905 888 1,014 Non-interest income 1,227 1,342 1,442 2,097 842 Total operating income 3,796 3,679 3,977 5,056 3,444 Operating expenses (1,895) (1,706) (1,857) (2,077) (1,712) Operating profit 1,901 1,973 2,120 2,979 1,732 Loan loss provisions (824) (584) (618) (1,011) (100) Pre-tax profit 1,077 1,389 1,502 1,968 1,632 Tax (26) (276) (178) (253) (172) Minority interest (70) (6) (28) (24) (7) Net profit 980 1,107 1,297 1,691 1,453 EPS 1.17 1.32 1.55 2.02 1.73 Key ratios Loans to deposits & borrowings 107.4% 107.9% 106.6% 107.7% 106.3% Net interest margin 4.85% 4.40% 4.76% 5.54% 4.79% Cost to income 53.36% 48.38% 48.28% 42.37% 52.91% Krungsri Securities Research 4 Company Update | KKP March 13 , 2017 INCOME STATEMENT (Btm) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Interest income 14,776 14,869 15,274 16,278 17,475 Interest expenses (5,328) (4,436) (4,347) (4,770) (5,363)
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