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Probabilistic Method of Failure and Fault Trees For Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies ISSN 1729-3774 4/2 ( 106 ) 2020 INDUSTRY CONTROL SYSTEMS UDC 626/627.8:001.5:519.7 The problem of forecasting emergency situations at DOI: 10.15587/1729-4061.2020.208467 hydraulic facilities of a hydroelectric complex, forming its pressure waterfront, based on the application of a log- ical-probabilistic approach is considered. APPLICATION The relevance of the studies and their practical signifi- cance are determined by the need to assess the compliance OF A LOGICAL- of the safety of hydraulic facilities with international safe- ty standards and current national legislation. Therefore, PROBABILISTIC the reports on the environmental impact assessment of hydraulic facilities should present the results of assessing METHOD OF FAILURE the additional risk of emergency situations at the hydro- electric complex. This assessment, in turn, requires an AND FAULT TREES analysis of the probability of accidents at the hydroelec- tric complex before and after new construction. FOR PREDICTING In the present study, using the example of the Kakhovka hydroelectric complex (Ukraine), the systemic EMERGENCY nature of possible causes of accidents at pressure hydrau- lic facilities as part of hydroelectric complexes is found. SITUATIONS AT An accident at a hydroelectric complex is considered as a complex natural and man-made event, which can be PRESSURE HYDRAULIC associated with various natural and man-made factors. The total (generalized) probability of an accident at the FACILITIES (THE hydroelectric complex is estimated by the logical-proba- bilistic method of failure and fault trees based on a deduc- CASE OF KAKHOVKA tive approach. The upper limit estimates of the probability of acci- HYDROELECTRIC dents at individual hydraulic facilities of the hydroelec- tric complex and the generalized estimate of the prob- COMPLEX) ability of an accident at the hydroelectric complex as a whole are calculated. It is found that the probability of an D. Stefanyshyn accident depending on the hydraulic facility of the hydro- Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, electric complex can vary. In the case of the Kakhovka Leading researcher hydroelectric complex, it varies from 2.110–6, year–1, Institute of Telecommunications and at the run-of-river earth dam, to 5.610–6, year–1, at the spillway dam. The total probability of an accident at the Global Information Space of the National Academy hydroelectric complex is 2.3510–5 emergency events per of Sciences of Ukraine year. However, these estimates do not exceed the per- Chokolovsky blvd., 13, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03186 missible value of 510–5, year–1, which is regulated for E-mail: [email protected] hydraulic facilities of the corresponding consequence D. Benatov class. Thus, it is concluded that the current reliability and PhD, Senior Lecturer safety of the hydraulic facilities of the Kakhovka hydro- Department of Ecology electric complex can be recognized as sufficient and Plant Polymers Technology Keywords: Kakhovka hydroelectric complex, pressure National Technical University of Ukraine hydraulic facilities, environmental impact assessment, “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute” accident scenario, technological safety Peremohy ave., 37, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03056 E-mail: [email protected] Received date 19.05.2020 Copyright © 2020, D. Stefanyshyn, D. Benatov Accepted date 04.06.2020 This is an open access article under the CC BY license Published date 28.08.2020 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) 1. Introduction the city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region [1]. This is the last sixth step of the Dnieper River system of hydroelectric The Kakhovka hydroelectric complex on the Dnieper power plants (HPP). River is one of the largest hydroelectric complexes in Construction work at the Kakhovka hydroelectric com- Ukraine. Hydraulic facilities of the hydroelectric complex are plex began in the spring of 1952; the hydraulic facilities located in the lower reaches of the Dnieper River, 5 km from were put into permanent operation in 1959. In the summer 55 Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies ISSN 1729-3774 4/2 ( 106 ) 2020 of 1955, the filling of the Kakhovka Reservoir was started, of an accident at existing hydraulic facilities of the hydro- which is now the largest in Ukraine – 18.19 km3 with normal electric complex. water level (NWL) and the second largest water surface It should be noted that the hydraulic facilities built in area (2,155 km2) after the Kremenchuk Reservoir. Ukraine do not differ from the hydraulic facilities built and The Kakhovka hydroelectric complex has many pur- operated in the world [7]. Therefore, the proposed approach- poses. It is used in hydropower, water transport, irrigation, es can be applied to any hydraulic facilities, regardless of municipal and service water supply, recreation, fisheries. geographical location and size. At the same time, the choice Strategic road and railway bridges also pass through the of the Kakhovka hydroelectric complex as the subject of hydraulic facilities of the hydroelectric complex [1]. study was made not by chance, since in this case the pressure The Kakhovka hydroelectric complex includes seven waterfront is simultaneously formed by several hydraulic pressure hydraulic facilities, forming a pressure waterfront facilities of different types and purposes, each of which can with a total length of 3.8 km. Starting from the right bank, be considered as a unique facility. these are: The absence of serious accidents at the hydroelectric 1) a run-of-river earth dam with a length of 1206.0 m and complexes of Ukraine, especially at large ones, including a maximum height of 30.0 m; pressure hydraulic facilities of the Kakhovka hydroelectric 2) the HPP structures with a total length of 212.0 m, complex, should not reassure Ukrainian scientists, engineers, combined with bottom spillways, where there are six vertical and officials. The problem of the safety of hydraulic facilities hydraulic units with a total capacity of 334.8 MW; as a part of hydroelectric complexes exists irrespective of 3) a concrete gravity spillway dam with a total length of whether there were accidents at them in the past or not. Over 412.0 m and a height of 35.0 m from the foundation to the time, due to the aging of hydraulic facilities built in the last top of the division wall, with 28 spillways; century and the increasing number of new hydraulic facil- 4) an earth dam between the HPP structures and the ities, the problem of accidents at hydroelectric complexes lock with a length of 188.0 m and a maximum height of will not disappear. Practice shows that accidents may occur 22.0 m; at hydraulic facilities that have not occurred before and to 5) a single-lift lock; which the engineering community may be unprepared [8]. 6) left-bank floodplain earth dam with has a length of Thus, the issue of predicting hypothetical accidents at 500.0 m and a maximum height of 19.85 m; pressure hydraulic facilities of hydroelectric complexes is 7) left-bank above floodplain earth dam with a length of relevant regardless of the state (serviceable or faulty) they 1275.0 m and a maximum height of 12.85 m. are now in and how they are operated. According to the current building codes (DBN V.2.4– 3: 2010 [2]), the pressure hydraulic facilities of the Kakhov- ka hydroelectric complex belong to the highest consequence 2. Literature review and problem statement class – СС3. To substantiate compliance of reliability and safety of hydraulic facilities of this class with current Pressure hydraulic facilities of hydroelectric complexes standards [2], along with traditional calculations within are among the most common engineering facilities among the deterministic approach, it is allowed to evaluate them complex, major, and unique engineering systems. In many on the basis of a probabilistic approach. As for the pressure cases, they are both critical infrastructure facilities [9–11] hydraulic facilities of the Kakhovka hydroelectric complex, and potentially hazardous facilities [10, 12]. At the same the relevance of research to predict the probability of acci- time, studies concerning both critical infrastructure [9–11] dents at them is determined not only by the high liability of and the affiliation of pressure hydraulic facilities to poten- hydraulic facilities for consequences. Currently, it has been tially dangerous facilities usually ignore the factor of their decided to start work on substantiating the expansion of the interaction within the hydroelectric complex as a system. Kakhovka hydroelectric complex by constructing another Thus, without the functioning of various pressure hydrau- hydraulic facility – the building of the Kakhovka HPP-2. lic facilities as critical energy, water, and transport infrastruc- This construction is envisaged by the Hydropower Devel- ture facilities, it is impossible to imagine the functioning of opment Program for the period up to 2026 [3] as one of the the national economy and livelihoods of the population. promising areas for the development of the Dnieper River At the same time, according to item 13 “Methods of iden- system of HPP [4]. In accordance with the Law of Ukraine tification of potentially dangerous facilities” [12], pressure “On Environmental Impact Assessment” [5], Ukrhydroener- hydraulic facilities in Ukraine belong to potentially danger- ho PJSC submitted the relevant information to the Unified ous facilities. They can cause accidents and emergencies that Register for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) [6]. threaten human life and health, property, and the environ- According to the Law [5], a number of probabilistic forecasts ment. Particularly dangerous emergency events are hydro- must be presented in the EIA report. Accidents at pressure dynamic accidents, which involve the uncontrolled spread of hydraulic facilities are among the most significant factors large volumes of water over a long distance at high speeds. of the likely negative impact on the environment from the Such accidents occur during the destruction (breakthroughs Kakhovka hydroelectric complex.
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