Skyworth Digital Target Price: HKD5.90 Price: HKD4.66 Set for a Strong Recovery Ahead Market Cap: USD1,818M Bloomberg Ticker: 751 HK
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Results Review Hong Kong FY17: below expectations 15 June 2017 Technology | Hardware & Equipment Buy (Maintained) Skyworth Digital Target Price: HKD5.90 Price: HKD4.66 Set For a Strong Recovery Ahead Market Cap: USD1,818m Bloomberg Ticker: 751 HK We continue to expect Skyworth to see a solid recovery this year. We Share Data expect its profitability to see meaningful improvement, driven by: Avg Daily Turnover (HKD/USD) 53.8m/6.84m 1. Rebound of its GPM (due to panel price moderating and an increase in 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 4.17 - 6.35 blended ASP of its core China TV sales); 2. Better operating leverage (due to better revenue growth momentum) Free Float (%) 59 and better cost control. Shares outstanding (m) 2,837 Therefore, maintain BUY, with a lower HKD5.90 TP (from HKD6.40, 27% Estimated Return 27% upside) as we cut our earnings forecasts for FY18F-19F by 7-8% to factor in a more conservative blended ASP growth of its core China TV sales. Shareholders (%) Wong Wai Sen, Stephen 36.1 Skyworth Digital’s (Skyworth) profitability to improve meaningfully this year, driven by: Alliance Bernstein LP 5.0 i. Rebound of GPM. According to data from WitsView Technology Coperation (Witsview), the pricing of major sizes of thin film transistor Share Performance (%) liquid crystal display (TFT LCD) have already shown signs of peaking in recent months. Given that the new capacity is kicking in, IHS Markit (IHS) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m expects that panel pricing to start dropping in 2H17. Absolute 5.4 7.4 (12.9) 7.1 (5.3) Based on our discussion with management previously, a YoY growth in the Relative (12.1) 4.6 (21.4) (8.0) (32.1) blended ASP of its core China TV sales have risen further to a high single Source: Bloomberg digit in recent months. Given the higher ASP has already shown a dampening effect to demand, we are slightly more cautious and lower our Skyworth Digital Holdings (751 HK) Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) estimates for blended ASP (only expecting +4% YoY). That said, we still 6.9 140 expect its GPM to rebound by 1.1ppts to 21.1% this year. 5.9 110 ii. Better operating leverage. We expect that Skyworth’s core China TV sales 4.9 80 to resume growth this year, driven by both shipment growth and ASP 3.9 50 increase. This should help lead to a better revenue growth momentum this 60 50 year (+8.6% YoY, vs +0.4% YoY last year) and hence, better operating 40 leverage. Nonetheless, we also expect that the company can achieve 30 better cost control this year. Therefore, we expect its EBIT margin to 20 10 rebound by 1.7ppts to 3.1% and as a result, Skyworth’s recurring earnings Volm 16 17 17 16 16 16 - - - - - are forecasted to rebound by 60.8% YoY this year. - Oct Apr Jun Feb Dec Aug Continuous rapid ramp-up of a high-margin smart TV platform. Last year, Skyworth’s smart TV platform’s revenue grew by 2.1x YoY to HKD166m, above Source: Bloomberg our estimate of HKD150m and management’s original guidance of HKD100m. For this year, we expect this business segment’s revenue to grow by 1x to HKD332m (vs management guidance of HKD300m). Given the high scalability and profitability of this business segment, we expect it to become a more meaningful profit contributor from this year onwards. This is with the contribution to total recurring earnings rising to 6-7% this year and 9-10% next year, up from 2-3% last year. Maintain BUY. Our new TP is based on the same 9x FY18F P/E, close to a its 3-year forward mean; this is also corroborated by our DCF valuation of HKD6.20/share. Key risks include a weaker-than-expected TV demand in China and overseas markets as well as stronger-than-expected competition. Forecasts and Valuations Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F Total turnover (HKDm) 42,695 42,845 46,523 49,647 51,910 Reported net profit (HKDm) 2,170 1,310 1,858 2,212 2,528 Recurring net profit (HKDm) 2,214 1,156 1,858 2,212 2,528 Recurring net profit growth (%) 28.7 (47.8) 60.8 19.0 14.3 Recurring EPS (HKD) 0.77 0.39 0.63 0.75 0.86 DPS (HKD) 0.26 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.28 Recurring P/E (x) 6.0 11.8 7.4 6.2 5.4 P/B (x) 0.88 0.88 0.82 0.76 0.70 P/CF (x) 7.60 6.18 4.44 3.93 3.53 Dividend Yield (%) 5.5 3.2 4.5 5.3 6.1 Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 10.9 6.3 4.8 3.8 Ken Chui, CFA Return on average equity (%) 15.1 8.6 11.6 12.7 13.4 Net debt to equity (%) 15.8 18.5 12.0 6.0 0.1 +852 2103 9415 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (4.5) (3.0) 0.0 [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Skyworth Digital Hong Kong Results Review 15 June 2017 Technology | Hardware & Equipment Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on : 2017-06-14 Asia Financial summary Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F Hong Kong Recurring EPS (HKD) 0.77 0.39 0.63 0.75 0.86 Technology EPS (HKD) 0.76 0.45 0.63 0.75 0.86 Skyworth Digital DPS (HKD) 0.26 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.28 Bloomberg 751 HK BVPS (HKD) 5.28 5.28 5.69 6.15 6.69 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 2,859 2,934 2,934 2,934 2,934 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F i. 9x FY18F P/E, above +1SD of its 3-year Recurring P/E (x) 6.0 11.8 7.4 6.2 5.4 forward P/E mean; P/E (x) 6.1 10.4 7.4 6.2 5.4 ii. DCF valuation of HKD6.20 per share. P/B (x) 0.88 0.88 0.82 0.76 0.70 Key drivers FCF Yield (%) 3.2 5.3 12.9 15.2 17.6 i. Strong growth of 4KTV shipment, which has a Dividend Yield (%) 5.5 3.2 4.5 5.3 6.1 higher GPM; EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 10.9 6.3 4.8 3.8 ii. Rapid ramp-up of smart TV ad business. EV/EBIT (x) 7.3 22.9 9.5 6.8 5.2 Key risks Income statement (HKDm) Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F i. Weaker-than-expected TV demand in China Total turnover 42,695 42,845 46,523 49,647 51,910 and overseas market; Gross profit 9,363 8,567 9,804 10,626 11,276 ii. Keener-than-expected competition; EBITDA 2,665 1,287 2,144 2,665 3,137 iii. Unfavourable raw materials costs (panel pricing). Depreciation and amortisation (639) (675) (722) (786) (850) Operating profit 2,026 612 1,422 1,879 2,287 Company Profile Net interest (239) (359) (349) (338) (330) Skyworth Digital (Skyworth) is one of the leading TV Income from associates & JVs 7 (4) (4) (4) (4) manufacturers in China and globally with an annual Exceptional income - net (55) 200 0 0 0 capacity of 14m units. The company has over 3,500 Pre-tax profit 3,150 1,984 2,687 3,198 3,655 specialty stores in China located across major cities Taxation (623) (455) (524) (624) (713) such as Shenzhen and Beijing, along with over 20k retail partners. Minority interests (357) (219) (305) (362) (414) Recurring net profit 2,214 1,156 1,858 2,212 2,528 Skyworth’s 3-year forward P/E band Cash flow (HKDm) Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F Change in working capital (1,406) 5 191 113 78 Cash flow from operations 1,753 2,213 3,080 3,477 3,874 Capex (1,324) (1,494) (1,313) (1,401) (1,465) Cash flow from investing activities (1,387) (1,295) (1,417) (1,505) (1,569) Proceeds from issue of shares (112) 5 0 0 0 Dividends paid (581) (750) (376) (656) (768) Cash flow from financing activities 4,667 (1,175) (874) (1,056) (1,207) Cash at beginning of period 3,317 5,023 4,815 5,335 6,044 Net change in cash 5,033 (257) 789 916 1,099 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Ending balance cash 8,350 4,766 5,604 6,251 7,143 Balance sheet (HKDm) Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F Total cash and equivalents 5,516 5,105 5,725 6,534 7,506 Tangible fixed assets 6,031 6,565 7,156 7,771 8,385 Intangible assets 113 637 637 637 637 Total investments 2,739 4,106 3,850 3,646 3,482 Total other assets 1,201 412 412 412 412 Total assets 42,060 43,059 45,557 48,307 51,008 Short-term debt 4,950 4,979 4,652 4,468 4,283 Total long-term debt 3,155 3,013 3,013 3,013 3,013 Total liabilities 25,360 26,246 27,393 28,646 29,590 Shareholders' equity 15,092 15,479 16,696 18,047 19,642 Minority interests 1,608 1,334 1,467 1,614 1,776 Total equity 16,700 16,813 18,164 19,661 21,418 Net debt 2,643 3,117 2,171 1,177 20 Total liabilities & equity 42,060 43,059 45,557 48,307 51,008 Key metrics Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18F Mar-19F Mar-20F Revenue growth (%) 6.4 0.4 8.6 6.7 4.6 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 27.2 (49.1) 60.8 19.0 14.3 Gross margin (%) 21.9 20.0 21.1 21.4 21.7 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 6.2 3.0 4.6 5.4 6.0 Net profit margin (%) 5.1 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.9 Dividend payout ratio (%) 33.7 33.5 33.0 33.0 33.0 Capex/sales (%) 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 Interest cover (x) 8.48 1.70 4.07 5.56 6.94 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Skyworth Digital Hong Kong Results Review 15 June 2017 Technology | Hardware & Equipment FY17 Results Review Figure 1: Skyworth’s FY17 results review FYE Mar (HKDm) 2H16 1H17 2H17 YoY 2H17 Diff FY16 FY17 YoY FY17 Diff FY17 Diff Actual Actual Actual RHB Actual Actual RHB BBG Consensus Revenue TV 15,790 13,887 15,750 -0.3% 16,456 -4.3% 30,112 29,637 -1.6% 30,343 -2.3% PRC 12,888 9,376 11,324 -12.1% 12,493 -9.4% 24,129 20,700 -14.2% 21,869 -5.3% Overseas 2,902 4,511 4,426 52.5% 3,963 11.7% 5,983 8,937 49.4% 8,474 5.5% Digital set-top boxes 3,732 2,580 3,140 -15.9% 3,392 -7.4% 5,913 5,720 -3.3% 5,972 -4.2% LCD modules 418 354 480 14.8% 495 -3.1% 772 834 8.0% 849 -1.8% White goods 1,234 1,075 1,019 -17.4% 1,188 -14.2% 2,366 2,094 -11.5% 2,263 -7.5% Other products 1,845 1,898 2,372 28.6% 2,348 1.0% 3,273 4,270 30.5% 4,246 0.6% Property holding 127 143 147 15.7% 177 -16.9% 259 290 12.0% 320 -9.4% Total revenue 23,146 20,291 22,554 -2.6% 23,702 -4.8% 42,695 42,845 0.4% 43,993 -2.6% 43,778 -2.1% Cost of revenue (17,806) (16,121) (18,157) (18,960) (33,332) (34,278) (35,081) Gross profit 5,340 4,170