Space Market Report: India, Japan, Brazil 19 March 2021
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1 Space Market Report: India, Japan, Brazil 19 March 2021 Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 2 Report Introduction • This report provides a review of space programs across India, Japan, and Brazil • The report draws heavily on the following Janes products and has been tailored for NHADEC and its membership: • Market Reports for India, Japan, and Brazil • India, Japan, and Brazil - Defense and Civilian Space Agency Budgets • Janes articles • Markets Forecasts The report is meant to guide NHADEC members with data, visualization, analysis and insights to support future business development decisions. Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 3 Executive Overview: India India has demonstrated advanced space capabilities since the Cold War. Its self- reliance in space technology is a source of national pride, as well as essential to its national security interests. India has a pragmatic approach to space: it goes alone when it must but opens its market where it can to foreign partners. Recent achievements to date– developing its own GPS satellite system, a planned mission to Mars, and space launch vehicles–have been government-led and driven by a self-dependent approach. U.S. space technology exports to India suffered after the jurisdiction of space exports was transferred from the Department of Commerce (EAR) to the State Department (ITAR) in 1999. Market opportunities declined in the first decade following that. U.S. efforts in 2010 to reform export controls given the growth in the commercial space sector have opened some market opportunities. India’s importance to U.S. geopolitical interests is reflected in the US Indo-Pacific strategy and addition to Commerce’s Strategic Trade Authorization (STA) Tier 1 status in 2018. In line with its “Make in India” initiative India has promised to open its space industry to the private sector, offering a “level playing field” for companies in satellites, launches, and space-based services. This suggests the possibility for foreign companies to partner Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. with local Indian firms. 4 Historical Milestones of India’s Space Program 1962 1975 1979 1980 1984 1997 Space First First earth First First manned First satellite program satellite observation indigenous space mission launched using founded launch satellite satellite (part of Soviet indigenous polar launch mission) satellite 1999 2001 2004 2007 2016 2019 U.S. places First “high Partners Initial India joins India ITAR resolution” with Russia operational Missile conducts restrictions (<1 m) on capability of Technology first anti- on satellites, imaging GLONASS indigenous Control satellite exports to satellite navigation GAGAN Regime (ASAT) India fall system navigation (MTCR) missile test system Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 5 US-India Strategic and Defense Trade Relations As the world’s two largest democracies, India and the United States share common interests in ensuring global security, countering China, and promoting democratic principles, trade, investment, and people-to-people ties (with an Indian diaspora of close to 5 million living in the US). In March, President Biden held his first meeting with Prime Minister Modi online, along with the leaders of Japan and Australia, which combined form the “Quad”-- a four-country group that is seen as a counter-weight to China’s growing military and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Bilateral defense trade relations remain strong and are expected to grow. In 2016 India received the status of a “Major Defense Partner” by the United States. In keeping with this, in 2018 India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorization (STA) Tier 1 status, which allows U.S. companies to export license-free to India a wide range of military and dual-use technologies regulated by the Department of Commerce. In September 2020 India and the U.S. held its bi-annual Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) meeting, focused on broadening the defense relationship and identifying co-production and co-development projects for military equipment. Near-term DTTI projects include: air-launched small unmanned systems, light weight small arms technology, and intelligence-surveillance targeting and reconnaissance (ISTAR). Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 6 India’s external political and trade relations China: India aims to counter China's regional influence. India-China relations have deteriorated since border disputes along the Line of Actual Control in May 2020. Borden tension is likely to continue. However, statements from both countries indicate little intent for deliberate military action. Remote sensing and satellite communication capabilities are key to monitoring India’s contested borders with China and Pakistan. Regional South Asia: Indian relations with Pakistan consistently remain difficult, with bilateral ties threatened by the August 2019 constitutional changes affecting Indian-administered Kashmir. Regionally, India is seeking stronger ties with Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Trade Relations: India’s top major trading partners as of 2019 are: the United States (16.6% share of exports); United Arab Emirates (9.2%); China and Hong Kong (9.1%); Singapore (3.3%); and the UK (2.7%). India’s top export commodities include refined petroleum products, chemicals, and pharmaceutical products, while its major import items are oil & gas mining products, mining of metals and basic chemicals, and semiconductors. India imported last year approximately $35 billion in goods and services from the United States– the second largest source of imports following China ($68 billion). Aircraft & spacecraft was India’s 10th largest import category in 2020, representing 3.2% of India’s total imports, or $10.9 billion. The US government approved approximately $1.04 million in ITAR-controlled spacecraft (ITAR Category XV) articles and technical data to India from the U.S. during fiscal years 2017-2019. Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 7 Make in India Policy India’s procurement priorities are closely linked to its ‘Make in India’ program, an initiative launched in 2014 intended to boost local capability and, ultimately, reduce dependency on imports, including in the defense and space sectors. While the Indian MoD discontinued the policy of requiring offsets in government-to-government trade, the MoD is very unlikely to procure space-technologies from foreign suppliers who do not have strong industrial and collaborative links with local partners. MoD has prioritized local defense production. Given India’s relatively low level of industrial capability, however, it is likely to be several years before these objectives are achieved. Make in India focuses on 25 priority sectors, including space. In March, the Department of Space announced the creation of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Center (IN- SPACe) to “promote, handhold, regulate and authorize space activity by private sector which will result in enhanced private participation.” In keeping with this goal, the budget for the Department of Space, which includes its main civilian space entity ISRO, for 2020-2021 grew approximately 8% to USD 1.8 billion compared to the previous year. Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 8 India’s Space Programs and Recent Developments India’s declared policy that its space programs are non-aggressive and do not involve an anti‐satellite (ASAT) program, was contradicted in 2019 when India successfully test-fired its first ASAT missile to destroy one of their own satellites in space (see picture on left). That year the same two entities that performed the ASAT test-- the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)-- launched the first reconnaissance satellite developed to detect enemy radar and gather communications intelligence. ISRO, which falls under the Department of Space, launched in 2013 the first seven of 11 Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) satellites, three of which will domestically provide the Standard Positioning Service for civilian use and four of which will be used for encrypted and restricted service to the military. India is improving its C4ISR capability by developing the IRNSS as an alternative to U.S.‐controlled GPS, access to which is not guaranteed in all circumstances. Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 9 Overview: India’s Launch Vehicles India has two operational launch vehicles: Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV). GSLV family comprises the GSLV Mk II (a medium-lift category expendable launch vehicle) and GSLV Mk III (a heavy-lift launch expendable launch vehicle). Both are developed by ISRO. The GSLV Mk III makes maximum use of technologies used by the GSLV and its predecessor, the PSLV. The GSLV Mk III has been identified for ISRO’s Gaganyaan mission, which is to send a three-member crew to space for a period of five to seven days by 2022. Copyright © 2021 Jane's Group UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. 10 Market Forecast: Space Systems India’s demand for civil and dual-use space command & control, SatComm terminals, bandwidth, and payloads (see left), is expected to grow steadily from 2021-2030-- An estimated total of at least USD 2 billion in projects through 2030. Some specific opportunities