Space Alert Volume VII, Issue 3, June 2019
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Space Alert Volume VII, Issue 3, June 2019 ORF Quarterly on Space Affairs CONTENTS FROMFROM THE THE MEDIA MEDIA COMMENTARIES India to hold first simulated space warfare Pink dragons in orbit: Why unlikely ISRO’s Mars Mission Successful, India exercise next month threats present real challenges for space Makes History ISRO eyes space theme park in Shar politics ISRO Inks Deal with China for Space India Planning To Launch Own Space By Daniel Porras IndiaStation Offers By 2030 Outer Space Expertise to The international and space communities have BangladeshISRO puts imaging satellite RISAT 2B into made numerous efforts to classify and U.S.orbit Dismisses Space Weapons Treaty categorise space security threats as they seek a ProposalIsro's new as “Fundamentallycommercial arm Flawed”NewSpace India suitable approach to deal with these NASAofficially Plans inaugurated to Send Submarine to challenges. In 2018, both the Secure World Saturn’sHigh-level Moon panel clears proposal to set up Foundation (SWF) and the Center for agency for developing space warfare Strategic International Studies published OPINIONSsystems AND ANALYSIS assessments of counterspace capabilities, IIT Guwahati signs MoU with ISRO to set grouping technologies by form and function up first-of-its-kind space technology centre (kinetic/non-kinetic, electronic and cyber). in the Northeast This is useful for experts to think about types NEW China PUBLICATIONS reveals scientific experiments for its of technology threats. next space station Astrobiology and India’s natural Naveen releases NATO aims to make space a new frontier in defense laboratories: Training grounds for space exploration SpaceX launches first batch of 60 internet satellites in landmark mission By Siddharth Pandey Astrobiology is a rapidly growing OPINIONS AND ANALYSES interdisciplinary field that investigates the origin, evolution and sustenance of life in the NEW PUBLICATIONS Universe. What is Life? How did it start? Can it be found elsewhere in the Universe? These are some of the profound questions that are EDITORIAL BOARD covered in this field. Life is a product of over a trillion crucial geo-bio-chemical reactions Editor: Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan that have taken place over the first billion Associate Editor: Nandini Sarma years of the planet’s existence. 1 Pink dragons in orbit: Why unlikely missiles, hostile on-orbit vehicles and threats present real challenges for space jamming technology. These capabilities are politics designed to deny the benefits of space objects to an opponent. On the other hand, a Daniel Porras considerable number of States are highly concerned about threats from space systems, The international and space communities have including the “placement of weapons in outer made numerous efforts to classify and space” that have targets on the ground. And categorise space security threats as they seek a while this latter category seems as far-fetched suitable approach to deal with these to some technical experts as the placement of challenges. In 2018, both the Secure World pink dragons in orbit, these concerns are Foundation (SWF) and the Center for impacting international dialogues in a very Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) real way. published assessments of counterspace capabilities, grouping technologies by form Yet another categorisation and function (kinetic/non-kinetic, electronic When reading the SWF counterspace and cyber). This is useful for experts to think assessment, one can see that all the about types of technology threats. In the recent technologies described are threats to existing UN Group of Governmental Experts on space systems. They include missiles like the further practical measures for the prevention one used in the recent Indian ASAT of an arms race in outer space (PAROS), these demonstration, as well as co-orbital vehicles technologies were put on a spectrum based on that could be used to repair, refuel or even destructive capabilities, with jamming on one destroy a satellite. These are all ground-to- end and “bunker busters” on the other. This space or space-to-space threats. These threats was also a useful exercise, particularly already exist and are being increasingly because it demonstrated the lack of consensus perfected by a number of countries, principally on what is considered to be an attack on a by China, India, Russia and the US. As these space object. Additional UN bodies have also threats are already generally recognised by the grouped threats into three scenarios: space-to- international community, a number of space, ground-to-space and space-to-ground. proposals have been put forward that could These scenarios describe the location of a mitigate them and reduce tension between threat and its respective targets. space rivals. Solutions like codes of conduct for orbital activities, ASAT test guidelines and All these classifications and models should even prohibitions on the destruction of objects help experts and diplomats to think about and discuss possible options for diplomatic in orbit could all be paths towards greater solutions to space security. Yet there remains stability in space. a division of opinions on what threats are most However, none of these approaches addresses urgent and how to address them. A review of the third scenario, namely space-to-ground. statements in the UN on PAROS reveals that, These are threats from space systems and at present, there are two distinct perceptions could take the form of space-based missiles, or about what space security threats are and what even the fantastical “Rods from God” (which, they mean. On the one hand, some States are thankfully, are no longer discussed seriously). highly concerned about threats to space And while missiles in space might make about systems, including things like anti-satellite as much sense as deploying pink dragons in 2 orbit from a technical or even economic But why would SBI make people on the perspective, the perceived threat is keeping ground nervous? Such a tool would be many States from agreeing to measures that defensive in nature. Here, the issue of don’t cover this scenario. verification comes full circle. Those who consider SBI as a possibility do not, at present, The legacy of Reagan’s pink dragons believe they would be able to verify whether In the 1980’s, Ronald Reagan put forward the the US is deploying SBI or whether they are idea of placing space-based missile deploying missiles that can target objects (or interceptors (SBI) in orbit as part of US people) on the ground. The US and it’s missile defence, a project referred to as Star western allies often criticise the Wars. The idea is that putting interceptors in Chinese/Russian proposal for the “prevention space will allow the US to shoot down of the placement of weapons in outer space” incoming ICBM’s at an earlier stage in its but, in this light, the concept makes more flight path. However, it soon became evident sense, even if SBI is still far-fetched. that Star Wars made little technical or How to utilise pink space dragons economic sense with existing technologies and, following the collapse of the Soviet Under the present circumstances, discussions Union, the project returned to the shelf with on space security within the UN are going other fantasies like Brilliant Pebbles or Rods nowhere fast (the Long Term Sustainability from God. A fairly recent study from the Guidelines mostly deals with safety issues, not Union of Concerned Scientists explains why security). Western countries in the UN SBI doesn’t make sense, complete with generally favour the adoption of non-legally graphics and estimated costs. binding transparency and confidence building measures that will help them protect their Yet the US has not given up on the idea space systems. Yet others (led by China and completely. In the most recent missile defence Russia) are determined to address the issue of review, the US decided to dust off the Star “weapons” in space through a treaty, Wars book to give it another look. And while regardless of what experts consider to be many experts will point out that the notion has likely or feasible. Looking at the votes on not received any funding and is unlikely to go space security resolutions in the UN General anywhere, some in the international Assembly every year, it is not unreasonable to community (namely those not allied with the conclude that most of the world could care US) interpret this review as a sign of less about what approach is taken so long as intentions. These countries look at the US’ something is undertaken with serious extraordinary achievements in space (like the commitment. lunar landing, like the space shuttle, like so many other great things they’ve achieved) and So what to do? wonder: if they can get to the Moon, why can’t they put missiles in space? Indeed, the One option might be to separate the commitment and resolve displayed by the US discussions on threats to space systems and in reaching the Moon (for whatever reason) threats from space systems at the multilateral stands as proof that when they put their minds level. By addressing threats to space systems to it, the US can achieve anything. For separately, the international community might geopolitical rivals, the possibility of SBI is be able to adopt one of the many reasonable very real. proposals that exist today. Discussions could be focused on addressing issues where there is 3 convergence, such as the intentional option, even if just to enable discussions on destruction of objects in orbit. By separating threats to space systems. the discussion from the knotty question of SBI or space-to-ground threats, there could be a Daniel Porras is a Security Senior Fellow higher likelihood for success in multilateral with the United Nations Institute for negotiations.