Strategisk Regnskapsanalyse Og Fundamental Verdivurdering Av Hurtigruten ASA

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Strategisk Regnskapsanalyse Og Fundamental Verdivurdering Av Hurtigruten ASA HANDELSHØGSKOLEN I TROMSØ Strategisk regnskapsanalyse og fundamental verdivurdering av Hurtigruten ASA Bengt Marius Hilstad Mastergradsoppgave i økonomi og administrasjon. - studieretning bedriftsøkonomi (30 stp) Juni 2012 Forord Denne mastergradsoppgaven markerer avslutningen på mitt siviløkonomstudium ved Handelshøgskolen i Tromsø. Min bakgrunn for valg av tema er hovedsakelig grunnet i en sterk iboende interesse for økonomi- og verdsettingsfaget. Fagdisiplinen verdivurdering av foretak sammenføyer stort sett alle fag som har inngått i mitt 5-årige studium. Blant annet vil kunnskaper og erfaringer fra fag innen økonomisk analyse, finans, bedriftsøkonomi, regnskap, samt ledelse og strategi stå sentralt i studien. Dette gjør dermed verdivurdering til et svært godt mål på bredden i det en siviløkonom skal kunne beherske. Ved valg av objekt for verdivurderingen, var det flere forhold som gjorde nettopp Hurtigruten ASA interessant for meg. Selskapet er en stor nasjonal aktør med lange tradisjoner i landet og Nord-Norge spesielt. Også i min familie, der flere av mine forfedre har hatt sitt arbeid på selskapets skip. Arbeidet med studien har vært svært utfordrende og lærerikt. Samtidig har arbeidet vært større og mer krevende enn det jeg hadde forventet. Jeg ønsker å rette en stor takk til mine veiledere, Førstelektor Bernt Arne Bertheussen og Professor Terje Vassdal, for deres gode råd og konstruktive tilbakemeldinger underveis i prosessen. Jeg vil også takke Hurtigruten ASA ved CFO, Asta Lassesen og tidligere CFO, Anders Olstad for deres store hjelpsomhet og bidrag. Avslutningsvis vil jeg takke min familie for deres støtte og tålmodighet i prosessen. Tromsø, 31.mai 2012 Bengt Marius Hilstad ii Sammendrag Formålet med denne mastergradsutredningen har vært å estimere den teoretiske markedsverdien av Hurtigruten ASA. Forskningsspørsmålet for studien er derfor utledet som følger: ”Hva er verdien av Hurtigruten ASA”. Studien er en beskrivende casestudie der både kvantitativ og kvalitativ metode benyttes. Alle studiens beregninger er gjennomført med Microsoft Excel. Forskningsobjektet har gjennomgått store og fundamentale endringer siden fusjonen mellom TFDS og OVDS i 2006. Dette inkluderer en gjennomgående restrukturering av selskapets organisasjon og virksomhet, samt en refinansiering av hele selskapets låneportefølje. I denne perioden falt samtidig selskapets aksjekurs på Oslo Børs kraftig. Året 2011 var et ekstraordinært år for Hurtigruten ASA, med svært mange unormale hendelser med stor betydning for målingen av selskapets økonomiske stilling og prestasjoner. Denne støyen i analyseperiodens regnskaper, fordrer anvendelse av såkalt fundamental verdivurdering. Undersøkelsesmetoden er særlig grundig, tids- og ressurskrevende, og innebærer store utfordringer. Metodikken i boken Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation av Stephen H. Penman (2010), er benyttet som rammeverk for studiens strategiske regnskapsanalyse og fundamentale verdivurdering. I henhold til rammeverket startet verdivurderingsprosessen med gjennomføringen av en utførlig strategisk analyse for å kartlegge hvilke makro- og mikroøkonomiske faktorer som påvirker selskapet og dets omgivelser. Modellverktøyene PESTEL, Porters Five Forces, VRIO og SWOT utgjorde denne analysen. Dernest ble en grundig regnskapsanalyse av selskapet gjennomført. I denne ble selskapets nøkkeltall sammenlignet med de generelle krav til det enkelte nøkkeltall og gjennomsnittet for de største selskapene i landets komparative bransjer. Samtidig inneholdt denne regnskapsanalysen en omgruppering av årsregnskapets oppstillinger for formålet om verdivurdering i et investorperspektiv. iii Regnskapsanalysen og den strategiske analysen ble deretter nyttegjort som forankring for fremtidsbudsjetteringen av selskapets regnskaper i den valgte prognoseperioden. Dette fremtidsregnskapet ble i neste trinn av prosessen benyttet som grunnlag for den fundamentale verdivurderingen etter totalkapitalmetoden. Dette basisanslaget ga en teoretisk markedsverdi av Hurtigruten ASAs egenkapital på 2 355 381 000 kroner, og derav en estimert verdi per aksje på 5,605 Kr. Gjennom følgende analyse av usikkerhet samt beregning av alternative teoretiske verdianslag, fremkom et verdiintervall mellom 2,89 og 6,72 Kr. Studien avdekket videre at det foreligger en betydelig risiko i verdianslaget. Med unntak av beregningen ved hjelp av den relative multiplikatoren EV/EBITDA, viste alle metodene verdianslag høyere enn markedets verdivurdering av aksjen gjennom kursen ved Oslo Børs på 3,03 Kr. Handlestrategien som verdivurderingsprosessen og studien konkluderes med, innebærer dermed en relativt sterk kjøpsanbefaling på Hurtigruteaksjen for en risikovillig investor. Nøkkelord: Hurtigruten ASA, HRG, verdivurdering, verdsetting, fundamental analyse iv Innholdsfortegnelse FORORD ........................................................................................................................................................... II SAMMENDRAG ............................................................................................................................................... III INNHOLDSFORTEGNELSE .................................................................................................................................. V FIGUROVERSIKT .............................................................................................................................................. IX TABELLOVERSIKT .............................................................................................................................................. X BEGREPSAVKLARING ....................................................................................................................................... XI 1 INNLEDNING .................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BAKGRUNN ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 FORMÅL .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 PROBLEMFORMULERING ..................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 AVGRENSNING .................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.5 OPPGAVENS OPPBYGNING ................................................................................................................................... 4 2 PRESENTASJON AV SELSKAP OG BRANSJE ..................................................................................................... 5 2.1 HURTIGRUTEN ASA ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Mål og strategi ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Hurtigruten i dag .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3 Hurtigruten på børs ............................................................................................................................ 11 2.1.4 Trafikkutvikling ................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 MARKEDSSITUASJON ........................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Reiselivsbransjen................................................................................................................................. 14 2.3 KONKLUSJON PRESENTASJON AV SELSKAP OG BRANSJE ............................................................................................ 20 3 TEORETISK FUNDAMENT ............................................................................................................................. 21 3.1 VERDIDRIVERE................................................................................................................................................. 21 3.1.1 ROCE ................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.2 Vekstmuligheter .................................................................................................................................. 28 3.2 VERDSETTELSESMETODER .................................................................................................................................. 29 3.2.1 Fundamentale verdsettelsesmetoder ................................................................................................. 29 3.2.2 Relative verdsettelsesmetoder............................................................................................................ 39 3.2.3 Opsjonsbaserte verdsettelsesmetoder ................................................................................................ 42 3.2.4 Valg av verdsettelsesmetode .............................................................................................................. 43 4 METODE .....................................................................................................................................................
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