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OECD Economic Surveys OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa 2013 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2013), OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa 2013, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-zaf-2013-en ISBN 978-92-64-18230-1 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-18232-5 (PDF) Series: OECD Economic Surveys ISSN 0376-6438 (print) ISSN 1609-7513 (online) OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa ISSN 2218-6131 (print) ISSN 2218-614X (online) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Photo credit: Cover © Shutterstock/Sean Nel. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2013 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents Executive summary ......................................................... 7 Assessment and recommendations........................................... 11 Overcoming entrenched problems will require stepped-up policy efforts........ 11 Growth has been sluggish since the crisis, and is expected to pick up only gradually 11 The government’s strategic plans are broadly sound, but implementation will be challenging ...................................................... 27 Improving basic education is critical for achieving the government’s development objectives .................................................. 34 Greener growth is needed for sustainability................................. 40 Bibliography............................................................ 47 Annex 1. Progress on structural reform ..................................... 49 Chapter 1. Improving education quality in South Africa .......................... 55 South Africa has reached high educational attainment but quality of education remains dismal ......................................................... 56 Improving education quality.............................................. 63 Notes.................................................................. 80 Bibliography............................................................ 80 Annex 1.A1. Educational attainment and labour market outcomes ............. 83 Annex 1.A2. Education quality and labour market outcomes................... 86 Annex 1.A3. The determinants of pupils tests scores at grade 9 ................ 88 Chapter 2. Economic growth in South Africa: Getting to the right shade of green .... 91 South Africa has become increasingly active as regards policies to deliver greengrowth........................................................... 92 Meeting the challenge of climate change ................................... 98 Following through on water policy reforms ................................. 112 Notes.................................................................. 119 Bibliography............................................................ 119 Boxes 1. Main macroeconomic policy recommendations .......................... 24 2. The National Development Plan and the New Growth Path ................ 28 3. Main recommendations for increasing employment ...................... 33 4. Main recommendations on education .................................. 40 5. Main recommendations on achieving greener growth..................... 46 1.1. The South African education system ................................... 57 1.2. Key priorities identified in the National Development Plan, the Action Plan to 2014 and the New Growth Path ...................................... 65 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SOUTH AFRICA © OECD 2013 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.3. Management instruments to improve school governance ................. 73 1.4. Main education recommendations ..................................... 79 2.1. Multi-level environmental governance in South Africa .................... 96 2.2. Industrial policy interventions to develop the green economy.............. 105 2.3. Recommendations on climate change and water policies ................. 118 Tables 1. Selected economic indicators ......................................... 14 Figures 1. Per capita income growth has been slower than in most other major emerging economies ........................................... 12 2. Selected economic indicators ......................................... 13 3. The negative output gap is still widening ............................... 14 4. Several economic indicators are still below pre-crisis peaks ............... 15 5. Households have struggled to reduce debt loads and rebuild net wealth..... 15 6. The recovery from the latest recession in OECD economies has been unusually weak ..................................................... 16 7. Private investment has decoupled from corporate profits ................. 16 8. Export commodity prices have turned down recently ..................... 18 9. The banks are profitable and well capitalised, with falling levels of bad loans 19 10. The cyclically adjusted deficit widened in the crisis and remains sizable .... 19 11. Public debt is projected to stabilise at moderate levels .................... 20 12. Inflation has fluctuated with food and fuel prices, but core inflation has been stable...................................................... 21 13. Wage push pressures have been easing ................................. 22 14. Real short-term interest rates are low in absolute but not relative terms .... 22 15. The exchange rate tends to move in step with those of other emerging market currencies ................................................... 23 16. South Africa’s relative position on perceived corruption has worsened ...... 26 17. Much of South Africa’s income gap vis-à-vis OECD countries is explained by labour utilisation ................................................. 27 18. Employment protection legislation is relatively liberal .................... 32 19. Product market regulation is relatively restrictive ........................ 33 20. The education system needs more teachers and more capital.............. 37 21. Electricity prices are still very low by international standards .............. 42 22. South Africa has achieved relatively little decoupling of real GDP and CO2 emissions................................................... 43 23. Water resources are scarce ............................................ 45 1.1. Mean years of schooling .............................................. 56 1.2. Attendance rates .................................................... 58 1.3. Mean years of schooling by ethnic group ................................ 59 1.4. International tests of scholastic achievement............................ 60 1.5. Returns to schooling, 2010 – Males ..................................... 61 1.6. Labour market outcome of schooling quality ............................ 63 1.7. Primary and secondary resources ...................................... 64 1.8. Language scores ..................................................... 67 1.9. Pupil-teacher ratio ................................................... 68 1.10. Projected pupil-teacher ratio .......................................... 69 4 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SOUTH AFRICA © OECD 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.11. Stratification of pupils’ socio-economic status ........................... 70 1.12. Language test scores ................................................. 76 1.13. Employment distribution and growth by industry ........................ 78 1.A1.1. Wage ratio with respect to population with only primary schooling ......... 84 2.1. Adjusted net saving .................................................. 95 2.2. Environmentally related tax revenues, per cent of GDP ................... 96 2.3. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita................................... 98 2.4. Degree of decoupling of emissions and real GDP ......................... 99 2.5. Total energy consumption per unit of GDP .............................. 99 2.6. Total energy consumption per unit of GDP, 2000-09 ....................... 100 2.7. Evolution of electricity prices for industry, selected countries .............. 101 2.8. Real average electricity price .......................................... 101 2.9. Electricity price, international comparison .............................. 102 2.10. Concentration of particulate matter (PM10) ............................. 103 2.11. Water availability, international comparison............................. 113 2.12. Pressure on the renewable water resources.............................. 113 This Survey was prepared in the Economics Department
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