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The Changing Faces of New England: Increasing Spatial and Racial Diversity

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The Changing Faces of New England: Increasing Spatial and Racial Diversity REPORTS ON NEW ENGLAND The Changing Faces of New England Increasing Spatial and Racial Diversity KENNETH M. JOHNSON Building Knowledge for Families and Communities REPORTS ON NEW ENGLAND Director: Cynthia M. Duncan Volume 1, Number 2 Deputy Director: Curt Grimm Senior Fellow and Director of Evaluation Support provided by the Annie E. Casey Foundation and Program: Sally Ward by the Carsey Institute’s endowment. Communications Director: Amy Sterndale © Copyright 2008 Executive Committee members: Ross Gittell, Ph.D. Carsey Institute James R. Carter Professor and Professor of Management University of New Hampshire Whittemore School of Business & Economics Huddleston Hall Lawrence Hamilton, Ph.D. 73 Main Street Professor Durham, New Hampshire 03824-3563 Sociology David Pillemer, Ed.D. 603-862-2821 Dr. Samuel E. Paul Professor of Developmental Psychology Psychology www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu Jan A. Nisbet, Ph.D. Director, Institute on Disability Robert J. Woodward, Ph.D. Forrest D. McKerley Chair Health Economics All Carsey reports are available on our website: [email protected] For additional printed copies of any Carsey publication, please contact us at [email protected] or 603-862-2821. The Changing Faces of New England Increasing Spatial and Racial Diversity Kenneth M. Johnson Senior Demographer The Carsey Institute University of New Hampshire A Carsey Institute Report on New England 3 Summary New England’s population stood at 14,270,000 in July of Other Metropolitan Areas in New England 2006, a gain of 347,000 residents since 2000. This gain of (Population 8,015,000) 2.5 percent is less than half that of the nation as a whole n and lags far behind the fast growing South and West. The The population grew by 214,000 between 2000 and 2006; a modest overall population gain in New England masks rate of increase equal to that during the 1990s. sharply contrasting demographic trends within the region. n The population grew because of immigration and natural increase. These metropolitan areas lost domestic migrants. Overall New England Trends n The white population declined. Growth was due to the minority population gains. n Racial diversity increased because all population growth in New England was due to a gain of 407,000 in its minority population. The white population declined by 60,000. Rural or Nonmetropolitan New England n Population growth rates were higher in northern New (Population 1,800,000) England which is receiving net in-migration from n Growth is accelerating here. The annual gain since 2000 is elsewhere in the country. Southern New England is losing 20 percent greater than during the 1990s. migrants to other parts of the United States. n This is the only area of New England gaining migrants n New England lost nearly $6 billion dollars of income from within the United States. There has also been very in migration exchanges with other areas of the country modest immigration, but little natural increase. between 2001 and 2005. n The net out-migration of just over 251,000 was the result of 1,263,000 people leaving New England and 1,012,000 moving in. So, more than 2,275,000 people moved in and out of New England to produce a net change of just 251,000. Boston Metropolitan Area (Population 4,455,000) n Growth slowed to a gain of only 64,000 residents between 2000 and 2006. n Hispanics and Asians accounted for most of the population increase in metropolitan Boston. The white population is declining. n Boston lost 229,000 domestic migrants. Natural increase and immigration were barely sufficient to offset this. n Boston gained large numbers of 20- to 29-year-olds from migration, but lost population at most other ages and particularly among those 30-49. 4 Introduction ew England is a remarkably diverse region with rich The purpose of this report is threefold: history and traditions. Geographically, New England • Summarize recent population redistribution trends in encompasses the urban canyons of Boston; colleges New England; Nand university towns that count generations of the nation’s elite among their graduates; mill towns that ushered in the Industrial • Show how natural increase (the balance of births and Revolution, but have since faded or had to reinvent themselves deaths), domestic migration and immigration have each to thrive again; picturesque villages where time seems to stands contributed to this population redistribution; still; rugged seacoast towns where tourists rub shoulders with • Document how these demographic trends vary by race those making their livelihoods from the sea; sparkling lakes, and Hispanic origin, geography and economic function. ski slopes and beautiful mountain vistas that draw vacationers and second homeowners from proximate urban metropolises; The patterns of demographic change in New England are and deep forests that provide raw material for the pulp and complex and subtle, but their impact is not. We see it reflected paper industry. New England’s diversity is also reflected in its in the diminished community capacity and increasing difficul- economy, which includes forestry, agriculture, manufacturing, ties that North Country communities face in providing basic banking, real estate, financial services, education, health care, services to the dwindling, aging populations that remain. It is computer development, and bio-technology. also evident in the strained infrastructure, pressed institutions, Demographic trends in New England often run contrary to and rising housing costs in communities that are growing rap- trends elsewhere in the nation. While some write this off to idly because of urban sprawl or migration to New England’s sheer Yankee independence, it actually reflects the complex in- high amenity areas. An in-depth understanding of the current teraction between fertility, mortality and migration over a pro- demographic trends in New England contributes knowledge tracted period which has redistributed the population of New needed to identify regional challenges and inform the policy England. The Northeast, which once dominated the nation, discussions to address the needs of the people, organizations, now has the smallest population of the nation’s four census re- and institutions of New England. gions and has grown the least in recent years. With only 14.3 million people, New England includes less than five percent of the U.S. population and its rate of growth since 2000 is the low- est of any census division except its Northeastern counterpart, the Middle Atlantic States. Given New England’s economic and geographic diversity, it is little surprise that the patterns of population change within the region are also diverse. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial towns, fast growing recreational and amenity areas and isolated rural villages, New England includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the nation. 5 The Changing Faces of New England ew England has gained 347,000 residents (2.5 percent) increased by 66,000 (1.8 percent) from 2000 to 2006. Even on since 2000 according to Census Bureau estimates. The an annualized basis, this gain is significantly smaller than that region’s total population in July 2006 was 14,270,000. during the 1990s, when the population grew by 231,000 (6.7 TheN growth rate for the metropolitan region has slowed slightly percent). When Boston core and suburban Boston are com- since the 1990s. Analysis of the demographic changes under- bined, the metropolitan area as a whole grew by 1.5 between way in New England is facilitated by dividing the region into 2000 and 2006, this compares to a gain of 6.2 percent between three distinct sub regions. Some 31.2 percent of the area’s pop- 1990 and 2000. Thus, the annualized rate of population in- ulation resides in the Boston metropolitan area, 56.2 percent crease for the Boston metropolitan area is less than half what it live in the other metropolitan areas of New England and the was during the 1990s. remaining 12.6 percent reside in the nonmetropolitan, or rural, In metropolitan areas beyond Boston, identified in Figure areas of New England.i Because growth has been slower in the 5, the population grew by 214,000 (2.7 percent) between 2000 Boston metropolitan area, its share of regional population has and 2006 to 8,015,000. On an annualized basis, these popu- declined slightly since 2000. lation gains are slightly smaller than during the 1990s, when The overall population gains in New England mask con- these areas grew by 366,000 (4.9 percent). trasting demographic trends within the region (Figure 1). The The difference between demographic trends in metropolitan population of the Boston metropolitan area was estimated to and nonmetropolitan New England will be an important theme be 4,455,000 in July of 2006. The core of the Boston metropoli- of this research because the situation in urban New England tan region, Suffolk County, lost slightly more than 2,000 resi- contrasts sharply with that in the rural areas of the region. Ru- dents (-.3 percent) between April 2000 and July 2006. Although ral areas are growing faster since 2000 than they did during the this is a modest loss, it contrasts with modest population gains 1990s. Since 2000, nonmetropolitan New England has grown by in the 1980s and 1990s. In suburban Boston, the population 70,000 (4 percent) to reach a population of 1,800,000 by 2006. Figure 1: New England Population Change, 1990–2006 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Average Annual Change 2% 1% 0% Boston Metro Other NE Metro Nonmetro NE Source: Census 2000 and FSCPE 2006 (Federal State 1990–2000 2000–2006 Cooperative Population Estimates) 6 The contrasting trends in metropolitan and nonmetropoli- The Boston core is not the only large metropolitan center tan New England are clearly reflected in the spatial distribution experiencing population loss.
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