On the Sidelines No More

A newspaper from Germany Vol. 13, February 2016 www.atlantic-times.com Section A One Dollar Printed in Springfield, VA. In this issue New beginnings 2 Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier outlines how the OSCE and Germany can clean up Europe’s mess. Realpolitik 3 In today’s woebegone state of the world, de-escalatory diplomacy and compartmen- talized cooperation are the order of the day. Realpolitik is back, writes Theo Sommer. On the sidelines Tough talks 3, 18-19 The Munich Security Conference no more revealed the wide chasm between Russia and the West. Two years into Germany’s “new” foreign policy Dangerous drift 4 By Volker Perthes The global economy has succumbed to what some describe as secular stagnation. Robin Niblett explains how this affects the security of the world. Unwelcome guests 5 Are some of Europe’s new refugees terrorists? There has been scant evidence IMAGO/COMMONLENS that large numbers of IS supporters have wo years ago, at the 2014 arrivals has significantly strained the periphery will not simply burn out and Germany is willing to play a more come to Europe as refugees, writes Munich Security Conference, capacities of states at the EU’s external may not be containable. They were also engaged role in international politics, particularly with regard to crisis Peter R. Neumann, but the group Germany’s President Joachim borders as well as of major recipi- forced to acknowledge that major crises management: Angela Merkel. is taking advantage of the situation. Gauck, Foreign Minister ent countries. The stream of refugees in their vicinity will not be resolved, at TFrank-Walter Steinmeier and Defense has triggered tensions within the EU least not in the short term, but will need expectations are matched by a grow- Minister Ursula von der Leyen all sig- and has furthered right-wing populist to be managed over extended periods. ing interest in sustaining the influence Art of the deal 6-9 naled that Germany, henceforth, was movements almost everywhere on the This changing environment has cer- Germany has won, not least in diplo- Ukraine, Iran, Syria: Russia and the West willing to play a more substantive role continent. tainly helped German policy makers matic formats where, despite not being are at odds. Michael Stürmer, Dmitri in international politics, particularly More generally, Germans and Euro- develop their country’s international a permanent member of the Security Trenin, Steven Pifer and Michael Rühle with regard to crisis management. Most peans are increasingly coming to realize profile. Germany has taken the diplo- Council, it figures prominently, such consider strategies for NATO to manage – of Germany’s partners and foes have that their idea of institutionalized mul- matic lead in the crisis of Russia’s pres- as the P5+1 on Iran and the “Nor- or adapt to – these confrontations. indeed seen that something has changed tilateralism and multilateral decision- ence in Ukraine; it was a key participant mandy Quartet” to address the crisis in Berlin’s foreign policy behavior. making is not shared by most of their in the nuclear negotiations with Iran; it in Ukraine. Some, quite naturally, still criticize partners in the rest of the world. They is involved, as a member of the Interna- German policy preferences are rela- Syria sinking 10 Germany for contributing too little; have had to accept that the United tional Syria Support Group, in recent tively stable. Even with an increased The international community has been others applaud what they see in terms States is no longer prepared to take efforts to find a political solution to preparedness to use military force in unable to end or even curb the war in Syria. of leadership; and still others worry the lead in any crisis at any time, while the Syrian war; and it has accepted the UN, NATO or EU operations, Ger- The suspension of “proximity talks” about the way Germany leads where it rising or re-emerging powers, nota- OSCE presidency for 2016. Moreover, many does not see itself as a military quickly dispelled any hint of optimism, does. This was particularly evident with bly China, India and Brazil, seem yet Berlin has beefed up its contribution power. Influence can also be won by writes Andrea Böhm. regard to the refugee crisis, where more unprepared to contribute effectively to to NATO reassurance measures in the political and economic means, indeed, than a few EU partners complained that the global order. As a result, regional Baltic region and Central Europe. It is in the view of the German elite, much Berlin had failed to consult them. orders have been threatened, not only also increasingly prepared to contribute more effectively. Power struggle 12 Even in previous years, Germany in the neighborhood of Europe, but in military forces to crisis interventions Germany will remain a promoter Saudi-Iranian conflict has been escalating was not exactly machtvergessen, i.e. Europe itself. outside NATO’s area: as part of UN of a rules-based international order – for months. It is the Cold War of the Middle oblivious to its international weight At the same time, dividing lines efforts in Mali, as one of the countries both in the pan-European realm and East. Tomas Avenarius analyzes their rein- and power. Just ask policy makers from between the domestic and international prolonging their military engagement globally – and still prefers to act and, vigorated struggle for regional hegemony. Greece. The last two years, however, spheres have all but disappeared. The in Afghanistan, with arms deliveries where appropriate, lead in association were something like a crash course in refugee crisis, for example, demands and training activities in Northern Iraq, with partners such as France, rather geopolitical realism for post-Cold War policy approaches that span diplomacy, and more recently with reconnaissance than alone. German policy makers Turkey stumbles 13 Germany. Lessons included the Russian defense, development, European inte- flights over Syria and other measures to may yet have to learn that it is not gration, homeland security and social - Erdogan has jeopardized his country’s annexation of Crimea and the conflict support France and the US-led coali always enough to do what is “right” future, writes Michael Thumann. He in eastern Ukraine; the explosion of policy. tion against the self-proclaimed Islamic when partners who may even share explains how the president has placed Syria; the participation of jihadists with Crises that have impact on German State (IS). Berlin’s objectives don’t feel sufficiently Turkey in this precarious situation and what German or other European passports and European security are no Policymakers in Berlin are aware consulted. conclusions the Turkish government has in the Syrian war; terrorist attacks in longer separable from one another: that their European and international Ironically, perhaps, the more Ger- drawn thus far. Europe; and an unprecedented influx Refugees, Syria, Russia, terrorism partners expect this new level of inter- many assumes leadership roles inter- of refugees. and EU problem-solving capacity have national co-leadership to become a nationally, the more it becomes depen- While the European Union has only merged into one single crisis landscape. regular feature of German policies, not dent on other international actors. China on the verge 14 received some 3 percent or less of all Germans and other Europeans have just an accidental one. Berlin no longer refugees worldwide, the number of had to learn that conflicts on their sees this as a challenge. Rather, these continued on page 6 The list of China’s recent policy successes is long and its growing economic, diplomatic and military capabilities will continue to deepen its global footprint. Yet China’s newly emerging international reach is precarious. Sebastian Heilmann and The hour of populism Mikko Huotari explain. Since the euro crisis, the continent has been quarreling over the distribution of refugees – and the demagogues are having a field day | By Peter H. Koepf and Lutz Lichtenberger ISSN 1864-3965 EUR 3,90 CHF 6,20 he latest wave of agitation Migration policy requires tough nego- and Mexicans, wants to build fences and divisive and unsustainable race to ruin to spread over Germany tiations, which may entail only baby walls and claims he would allow not one by offering tax havens to international was triggered this week by a steps of progress and compromises that Syrian refugee to enter the country. All corporations; that banks, which were Green Party mayor. A profes- are not always so elegant. the while, the billionaire presents himself bailed out with taxpayer money, are Tsor – a member of his party – said to And how is it acceptable to block as the advocate of the common man raking in profits with the same old busi- him: “I have two blonde daughters, and Syrians and Iraqis in their attempt to against the excesses of global capitalism. ness models and are allowed to keep I worry if 60 Arab men are living now trade violence, war and despotism for And here he strikes a tone that also them; that they are footing the bill for only 200 meters away.” democracy and a chance at life? Neither resonates in Europe, where adherents the wild parties of yesteryear with their It is less the fear of Syrian or Iraqi the European Convention on Human to right-wing populist politicians feel unemployment and plummeting wages. men, and more a matter of votes that Rights nor the Geneva Refugee Conven- neglected, unfairly treated and not taken They believe politicians to be the lackeys has induced parts of Europe’s political tion allows for people to be sent back to seriously for their genuine concerns. of the long-since uncontrollable business establishment to voice words formerly countries in which they were persecuted There are people who fear globalism conglomerates and to have more or less reserved exclusively for populists and or treated inhumanely.

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