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Country Report Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea at a glance: 2005-06 OVERVIEW The prime minister, Sir Michael Somare, is likely to see out his full term in office, defeating any no-confidence vote. The political scene nevertheless remains unsettled, with a number of parties suffering internal splits. By contrast, the economic outlook is fairly good. The government has maintained control of its fiscal position, inflation has eased sharply, and improvements in agricultural and mining output should contribute to steady real GDP growth in 2005-06. However, the current-account balance will deteriorate steadily in 2005-06, in line with rising imports related to mining activity and infrastructure projects. Key changes from last month Political outlook • A new autonomous government on the island of Bougainville has been established, marking a milestone in the development of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The newly elected government was inaugurated in mid-June, with Joseph Kabui, the leader of the Bougainville People’s Congress securing the presidency. Economic policy outlook • Although the government has succeeded in maintaining a tight grip on expenditure, leading to an improvement in the budget balance, it has failed to utilise its development expenditure budget to support sustainable economic growth. In the first quarter of 2005 the government spent only around 3% of its full-year development budget. Economic forecast • The Economic Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its forecast for global crude oil prices, one of PNG’s leading export commodities. Oil prices will increase by 31% year on year in 2005 to an average of US50.5/barrel (dated Brent Blend), before dipping to US$46.5/b in 2006. July 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1478-1719 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Papua New Guinea 1 Contents Papua New Guinea 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2005-06 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 9 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 16 Economic policy 19 The domestic economy 19 Economic trends 21 Oil and gas 22 Mining 23 Agriculture, fisheries and forestry 25 Financial and other services 26 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 9 International assumptions summary 11 Forecast summary 16 Central government finances 18 Money supply 20 Quarterly inflation 23 Mineral exports by volume 24 Agricultural exports by volume 26 Exports 28 Balance of payments 29 Public-sector external debt Country Report July 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 2 Papua New Guinea List of figures 12 Papua New Guinea: gross domestic product 12 Papua New Guinea: consumer price inflation 18 Papua New Guinea: interest rates 21 Papua New Guinea: exchange rates 22 Papua New Guinea: Kutubu oil prices 28 Papua New Guinea: foreign-exchange reserves Country Report July 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 Papua New Guinea 3 Papua New Guinea July 2005 Summary Outlook for 2005-06 The prime minister, Sir Michael Somare, is likely to see out his full term in office, defeating any no-confidence vote. The political scene nevertheless remains unsettled, with a number of parties suffering internal splits. The economic outlook remains fairly positive. The government has maintained control of its fiscal position, inflation has eased sharply, and improvements in agricultural and mining output should contribute to steady real GDP growth in 2005-06. However, the current-account balance will deteriorate in 2005-06, in line with rising imports related to mining activity and infrastructure projects. The political scene Sir Michael has appointed Sir Moi Avei as his deputy, in a move that has created regional balance among the most senior positions in the government. There has been little progress made in resolving internal splits in a number of political parties. An autonomous government in Bougainville has been established, with Joseph Kabui, the leader of the Bougainville People’s Congress, securing the presidency. The Enhanced Co-operation Programme (ECP) with Australia has come to a premature end, complicating bilateral ties, but relations with China have strengthened. Economic policy The government continues to record a healthy budget surplus, but spending, particularly of the development budget, has been slow. The government has not made any progress with its privatisation programme. Monetary policy has remained neutral, with the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG, the central bank) keeping its kina facility rate unchanged in recent months. The government has planned to make some legislative changes in key sectors. The domestic economy Employment and nominal sales have risen steadily. Consumer price inflation has slowed markedly, partly because the kina has appreciated against the currencies of most major trading partners. Prospects for the eventual go-ahead for the long-delayed PNG Gas project continue to improve, with the recent signing of another two sales contracts. Crude oil production has fallen, owing to temporary repair works on a loading terminal. Export volumes of most agricultural commodities have declined. Foreign trade and payments Export growth has lagged that of imports. International reserves have fallen in line with the deficits recorded in the current and financial accounts. Public- sector external debt has fallen. Editors: Danny Richards (editor); Robert Ward (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: July 14th 2005 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report July 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 4 Papua New Guinea Political structure Official name Independent State of Papua New Guinea Form of state Constitutional monarchy Head of state Queen Elizabeth II, represented by the governor-general, who is nominated by the national parliament. Sir Silas Atopare vacated the position in October 2003, and Sir Paulius Matane was sworn in on June 29th 2004 The executive The National Executive Council, presided over by the prime minister, has executive powers; the prime minister is proposed by parliament and appointed by the head of state National legislature Unicameral national parliament of 109 members elected for a period of five years (currently comprises 103 members, with elections having been declared void in six seats); of the total, 89 members represent "open" constituencies, and the remainder represent 19 provincial constituencies and the capital district Provincial government Each of the 19 provinces has its own government, which may levy taxes to supplement grants received from the national government Legal system A series of regional and magistrates' courts leading to a Supreme Court at the apex National elections June-July 2002; the next elections will be in 2007 National government Sir Michael Somare, the leader of the National Alliance (NA), was elected prime minister by parliament in August 2002 Main political organisations National Alliance (NA); People's Democratic Movement (PDM); People's National Alliance (PNA); United Resources Party (URP); People's Progress Party (PPP); Pangu Pati (PP); PNG Party; Advance PNG Party (APP); People's National Congress
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