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New Hampshire Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study

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New Hampshire Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study Submitted to: New Hampshire Department of Transportation New Hampshire Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study May 29, 2015 Submitted by: Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. 2 Penn Plaza, Suite 603 New York, NY 10121 (this page left intentionally blank) NH Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 1 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3 3. Description of New Hampshire Turnpike System ................................................ 4 4. Historical Traffic and Revenue ............................................................................ 11 4.1. Historical Toll Transactions and Toll Revenue Trends ................................................. 11 4.2. Toll Transaction Trends ................................................................................................ 12 4.3. Toll Revenue Trends .................................................................................................... 17 4.4. Comparison of Actual Toll Revenues to Recent Projections ........................................ 21 5. Review of Proposed Capital Improvement Program ......................................... 22 6. Review of Historical and Projected Operation, Maintenance, Renewal and Replacement, and Debt Service Expenditures ......................................................... 24 6.1. Toll Processing Costs ................................................................................................... 24 6.2. Operating Expenditures ................................................................................................ 25 6.3. Debt Service Requirements .......................................................................................... 28 7. Review of National and Regional Socioeconomic Factors ............................... 30 7.1. National Economic Trends ........................................................................................... 30 7.1.1. Output and Growth ................................................................................................ 30 7.1.2. Prices .................................................................................................................... 33 7.1.3. Employment .......................................................................................................... 35 7.1.4. Consumer and Investment Spending .................................................................... 39 7.1.5. Short Term Economic Forecast ............................................................................. 42 7.1.6. Transportation Trends and Energy Prices ............................................................. 44 7.1.7. Long Term Economic and Travel Trends .............................................................. 51 7.2. New Hampshire Demographic Trends ......................................................................... 55 7.2.1. Population ............................................................................................................. 55 7.2.2. Population Age Distribution ................................................................................... 59 7.3. New Hampshire Economic Trends ............................................................................... 59 7.3.1. Output and Growth ................................................................................................ 60 7.3.2. Employment .......................................................................................................... 62 Page i May 29, 2015 NH Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study 7.3.3. Income ................................................................................................................... 64 7.3.4. Tourism and Travel Trends ................................................................................... 64 7.3.5. Commuting Trends ................................................................................................ 65 7.4. Historical Traffic and Economic Recessions ................................................................ 66 8. Transportation Projects Relative to the NH Turnpike System .......................... 68 8.1. Feeder Roads ............................................................................................................... 68 8.2. Competitive Roads ....................................................................................................... 68 8.2.1. Central Turnpike Parallel Routes - US Route 3 and NH 3A .................................. 69 8.2.2. Spaulding Turnpike Parallel Routes - Dover Point Rd / NH 9 / NH 108 ................ 72 8.2.3. Blue Star Turnpike Parallel Route - US Route 1 ................................................... 74 8.2.4. Summary of Alternate Routes ............................................................................... 74 8.3. Potential Future Transportation Projects ...................................................................... 76 8.3.1. Central (Everett) Turnpike Region ......................................................................... 76 8.3.2. Blue Star Turnpike Region .................................................................................... 77 8.3.3. Spaulding Turnpike Region ................................................................................... 77 9. Traffic and Revenue Projections, FY 2015-2024 ................................................ 78 9.1. Toll Rates ..................................................................................................................... 78 9.1.1. Assumed Toll Rates .............................................................................................. 78 9.1.2. Reasonableness of Tolls / Comparison to Other E-ZPass Toll Facilities .............. 78 9.2. Methodology Used for Traffic and Revenue Forecasts ................................................ 80 9.2.1. Fiscal Year 2015 Estimates ................................................................................... 80 9.2.2. Correlation to Economic Factors ........................................................................... 80 9.2.3. E-ZPass Market Shares ........................................................................................ 81 9.2.4. System Changes and Developments .................................................................... 81 9.3. Toll Transaction Projections by Turnpike ..................................................................... 83 9.4. Toll Revenue Projections by Turnpike .......................................................................... 85 9.5. E-ZPass Market Share Projections .............................................................................. 86 10. Financial Model Analysis ..................................................................................... 88 10.1. Total Turnpike System Expenditures ........................................................................ 88 10.2. Turnpike System Funds ............................................................................................ 89 10.3. Turnpike Coverage Ratio Analysis ............................................................................ 90 10.4. Limits and Disclaimers .............................................................................................. 92 Page ii May 29, 2015 NH Turnpike System Traffic and Revenue Study Figures Figure 1: New Hampshire Turnpike System ................................................................................. 5 Figure 2: NH Turnpike System Historical Toll Transactions and Toll Revenue Trends .............. 12 Figure 3: NH Turnpike System Historical Toll Transaction Trends ............................................. 14 Figure 4: Historical Toll Transaction Trends by Turnpike, FY 1991-2014 ................................... 15 Figure 5: NH Turnpike System Historical Toll Revenues ............................................................ 19 Figure 6: Historical Toll Transaction and Revenue Trends by Turnpike ..................................... 20 Figure 7: Funding Sources for Capital Improvement Program ................................................... 23 Figure 8: Real Growth Domestic Product ................................................................................... 30 Figure 9: Annual Rate of Change in Real Domestic Product ...................................................... 31 Figure 10: Per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product ................................................................. 32 Figure 11: Industrial Production Index and Capacity Utilization .................................................. 33 Figure 12: Consumer and Producer Price Indices ...................................................................... 34 Figure 13: Employment Cost Index ............................................................................................. 35 Figure 14: Civilian Employment .................................................................................................. 36 Figure 15: Unemployment Rate .................................................................................................. 37 Figure 16: Labor Participation and Employment to Population Ratio ......................................... 38 Figure 17: Median Duration of Unemployment ........................................................................... 39
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