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Taliban's Return to Power: Boost for Global Jihadism?
www.rsis.edu.sg No. 129 – 25 August 2021 RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Mr Yang Razali Kassim, Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected]. Taliban’s Return to Power: Boost for Global Jihadism? By Abdul Basit SYNOPSIS The Taliban’s return to power, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, will potentially rejuvenate Al-Qaeda’s brand of global jihadism. The Taliban’s military victories validate the jihadist doctrine and provide Islamist militants with a new impetus. Given its charm offensive, is a “new Taliban” emerging or will the same militant posture return? COMMENTARY WHAT HAS been referred to as the US-led "War on Terror" (WOT) started with the toppling of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. This has now culminated in the Taliban’s return to power 20 years later in August 2021. The United States had intervened in Afghanistan to undermine Al-Qaeda’s brand of jihadism. However, the maladroit US exit from Afghanistan this month has put Al-Qaeda on the potential path to recovery. The lightning speed of the Taliban’s territorial gains and the meltdown of the Afghan National Defence Security Forces (ANDSF) will potentially rejuvenate the global jihadist movement, sans IS and its affiliates. -
Skandinavias Første Jihadister "
! SKANDINAVIAS FØRSTE JIHADISTER " Nyoppdagede primærkilder viser et skandinavisk innslag blant afghanaraberne i 1980-årene. Jihadismen i nord er antakelig eldre enn tidligere antatt. thomas hegghammer Når kom egentlig jihadismen til Skandinavia? en idé om at den voldelige aktiviteten ikke er be- Fenomenet kan fremstå som relativt nytt, siden grenset til aktørens opprinnelsesland. Typiske det kun er de siste ti årene vi har sett islamistiske eksempler på transnasjonal jihadisme er fremmed- terrorangrep og høye antall fremmedkrigere. De krigervirksomhet, voldsangrep utenfor kon- spesielt interesserte vet at jihadistnettverkene i fiktsoner (slik som terrorangrep i Vesten) og Skandinavia er noe eldre og at det allerede i 1990- støttearbeid til slike aktiviteter.2 I denne sammen- årene ble avdekket militante miljøer i både hengen vil derfor ikke-afghanske muslimers Danmark og Sverige. I denne artikkelen skal vi se fremmedkrigerreiser og støttevirksomhet til at jihadismens nordiske røtter går enda lenger til- Afghanistan-krigen falle innenfor begrepet, mens bake, til 1980-årene og krigen i Afghanistan. Nye eksilafghaneres aktiviteter havner utenfor. primærkilder viser at det var kontakt mellom Studien er et biprodukt av et større forsknings- muslimer i Skandinavia og det arabiske fremmed- prosjekt om afghanarabernes historie i 1980- krigermiljøet i Peshawar så langt tilbake som til årene, hvor jeg gikk systematisk gjennom en stor 1985 og at et lite antall personer reiste til Afghani- mengde arabiske primærkilder, slik som bøkene, stan for å sloss. Dette viser at den transnasjonale tidsskrifene og reiseskildringene til de arabiske jihadistbevegelsen nådde Skandinavia relativt tid- fremmedkrigerne i Afghanistan.3 Underveis lig og at miljøene som ble avdekket her i 1990- noterte jeg alle henvisninger til Skandinavia, og årene ikke oppsto i et vakuum. -
Sweden: Extremism and Terrorism
Sweden: Extremism and Terrorism On July 31, 2021, Roger Haddad, the deputy chair of the education committee in Sweden’s Parliament, announced that the Romosseskolan school, an Islamic school in Gothenburg, should be shut down because of its “connection to extremism.” The students are reportedly subject to gender segregation in lessons and are required to take part in prayer sessions. After public funding was cut for the school in June, the Islamic Association of Sweden (IFiS), which has been described as a hub for Muslim Brotherhood members, continued to pay the teachers. Gothenburg is particularly vulnerable to radicalization and violent extremism as more than a third of Swedish ISIS fighters have come from the city. (Source: The National) Swedish authorities have also been grappling with terrorists who have come into the country to plot terror attacks. In April 2021, Sweden’s security police arrested Salma K. and Fouad M. for conspiracy to commit a criminal terrorist act in Sweden. The suspects, who claimed they were Afghan refugees, entered Sweden in 2015. However, upon investigation, the Swedish Security Service (SAPO) confirmed the two were not Afghani nationals but were more likely of Iranian nationality and possibly traveled to Europe as a terrorism “sleeper cell.” According to media sources, the two began planning to carry out an attack in January 2021 and are possibly connected to the security agencies of the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to SAPO, Iran’s regime conducts intelligence and espionage operations in Sweden. (Sources: Jerusalem Post, Iran Wire) There have also been “lone wolf” terror attacks resulting in casualties in Sweden. -
In Their Own Words: Voices of Jihad
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as CHILD POLICY a public service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and PUBLIC SAFETY effective solutions that address the challenges facing SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY the public and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Support RAND TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Purchase this document WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Learn more about the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. in their own words Voices of Jihad compilation and commentary David Aaron Approved for public release; distribution unlimited C O R P O R A T I O N This book results from the RAND Corporation's continuing program of self-initiated research. -
Swedish Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq
Swedish Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq An Analysis of open-source intelligence and statistical data Linus Gustafsson Magnus Ranstorp Swedish Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq An analysis of open-source intelligence and statistical data Swedish Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq An analysis of open-source intelligence and statistical data Authors: Linus Gustafsson Magnus Ranstorp Swedish Defence University 2017 Swedish Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq: An analysis of open-source intelligence and statistical data Linus Gustafsson & Magnus Ranstorp © Swedish Defence University, Linus Gustafsson & Magnus Ranstorp 2017 No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. Swedish material law is applied to this book. The contents of the book has been reviewed and authorized by the Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership. Printed by: Arkitektkopia AB, Bromma 2017 ISBN 978-91-86137-64-9 For information regarding publications published by the Swedish Defence University, call +46 8 553 42 500, or visit our home page www.fhs.se/en/research/internet-bookstore/. Summary Summary The conflict in Syria and Iraq has resulted in an increase in the number of violent Islamist extremists in Sweden, and a significant increase of people from Sweden travelling to join terrorist groups abroad. Since 2012 it is estimated that about 300 people from Sweden have travelled to Syria and Iraq to join terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and, to a lesser extent, al-Qaeda affiliated groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra. Even though the foreign fighter issue has been on the political agenda for several years and received considerable media attention, very little is known about the Swedish contingent. -
SALAFI- JIHADISM in AFRICA BRIEF / 12 June 2021
SALAFI- JIHADISM IN AFRICA BRIEF / 12 June 2021 A winning strategy by SERIES Giovanni Faleg* Senior Analyst, EUISS Katariina Mustasilta Postdoctoral Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs Summary › Violent extremism has become a grow- ing threat throughout the African conti- INTRODUCTION nent: all sub-regions have experienced the emergence of groups active across state Violent extremism keeps spreading in Africa, showing boundaries. notable resilience despite years of counter-extremism › Today, armed actors engaging in violent and prevention efforts by governments and interna- extremism in the continent are mainly af- tional actors (1)*. In addition to killing thousands, it filiated with Islamist militant groups and costs the affected regions an estimated $97 billion in particularly Salafi-jihadist ideology. lost informal economic activity each year (2). › The spread of Salafi-jihadism in Africa is Today, armed actors engaging in violent extremism fuelled by a combination of localised griev- in the continent are mainly affiliated with Islamist ances and transnational ambitions, while militant groups and organisations and particularly tactical and strategic flexibility has in- Salafi-jihadist ideology (3). Recent data indicates a creased the resilience of insurgent groups. dangerous expansion of Salafi-jihadist armed groups › Once it has emerged as a potent force, de- — often simply labelled as violent extremist or ter- feating Salafi-jihadism on the battlefield rorist organisations (4) — beyond the traditional hot- proves very difficult as groups show enor- spots in the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of mous resilience, even when facing tacti- Africa to West Africa’s coastal states and Central and cal defeats. Southern Africa. -
Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan
Notes de l’Ifri Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan Adel BAKAWAN July 2017 Turkey/ Middle East Program In France, the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) is the leading independent research, information and debate centre on major international issues. Ifri was founded in 1979 by Thierry Montbrial, and is an officially recognised non-profit organisation (Law of 1901). It is not subject to any government supervision, freely defines its own research agenda and regularly publishes its work. Using an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together international policy-makers and experts through its research and debates Along with its office in Brussels (Ifri-Brussels), Ifri is one of the few French think tanks to position itself at the very heart of European debate. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s alone and do not reflect the official views of their institutions. ISBN: 978-2-36567-743-1 © All right reserved, Ifri, 2017 Cover: © padchas/Shutterstock.com How to quote this publication: Adel Bakawan, “Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan”, Notes de l’Ifri, Ifri, July 2017. Ifri 27 rue de la Procession 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – FRANCE Tel.: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 – Fax: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 Email: [email protected] Ifri-Bruxelles Rue Marie-Thérèse, 21 1000 – Brussels – BELGIUM Tel.: +32 (0)2 238 51 10 – Fax: +32 (0)2 238 51 15 Email: [email protected] Website: Ifri.org Author Adel Bakawan is a sociologist, associate researcher at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS, in French) in Paris, and the Centre for Sociological Analysis and Intervention (CADIS, in French). -
Expert Talk Al-Shabaab's Tentacles Extend West
SEPTEMBER 2009 Expert Talk Al-Shabaab’s Tentacles Extend West by John Solomon, Head of Terrorism Research, World-Check Newsletter by World-Check, the recognised authority on reducing risk through intelligence. www.world-check.com/experttalk n recent months the US-Pakistan offensive on al-Qa’ida and the Taliban in the tribal areas of Pakistan has intensified I significantly. With the future of that terrorist sanctuary now in question, Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan has been diminished in many would-be jihadists eyes as the premier destination for those seeking to join al-Qa’ida. The dimming of Waziristan has coincided with the elevation of Somalia as an alternative destination and hub for global jihad. The toll of the violence and instability on locals has been significant. Since the start Al-Shabaab of 2007, the fighting in Somalia has killed more than 18 000 people and displaced The al-Qa’ida-linked al-Shabaab 1.2 million civilians. Since May of this year alone, over 100 000 civilians have been movement is the key terrorist forced to flee their homes due to the shelling of civilian areas. And according to group operating in Somalia. the UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, some 300 000 have fled to camps in Dadaab The group was formed from in Kenya. For al-Shabaab, the instability sowed by conflict and state failure provides the former youth wing of it with a safe haven for its terrorist activities, which have international dimensions. the defunct Union of Islamic Courts and is ideologically While the Somali jihadist group operates mainly in a localized context, it has and operationally aligned with become increasingly globalised. -
The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond
THE JIHADI THREAT ISIS, AL QAEDA, AND BEYOND The Jihadi Threat ISIS, al- Qaeda, and Beyond Robin Wright William McCants United States Institute of Peace Brookings Institution Woodrow Wilson Center Garrett Nada J. M. Berger United States Institute of Peace International Centre for Counter- Terrorism Jacob Olidort The Hague Washington Institute for Near East Policy William Braniff Alexander Thurston START Consortium, University of Mary land Georgetown University Cole Bunzel Clinton Watts Prince ton University Foreign Policy Research Institute Daniel Byman Frederic Wehrey Brookings Institution and Georgetown University Car ne gie Endowment for International Peace Jennifer Cafarella Craig Whiteside Institute for the Study of War Naval War College Harleen Gambhir Graeme Wood Institute for the Study of War Yale University Daveed Gartenstein- Ross Aaron Y. Zelin Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Washington Institute for Near East Policy Hassan Hassan Katherine Zimmerman Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy American Enterprise Institute Charles Lister Middle East Institute Making Peace Possible December 2016/January 2017 CONTENTS Source: Image by Peter Hermes Furian, www . iStockphoto. com. The West failed to predict the emergence of al- Qaeda in new forms across the Middle East and North Africa. It was blindsided by the ISIS sweep across Syria and Iraq, which at least temporarily changed the map of the Middle East. Both movements have skillfully continued to evolve and proliferate— and surprise. What’s next? Twenty experts from think tanks and universities across the United States explore the world’s deadliest movements, their strate- gies, the future scenarios, and policy considerations. This report reflects their analy sis and diverse views. -
Alternative Narratives for Preventing the Radicalization of Muslim Youth By
Spring /15 Nr. 2 ISSN: 2363-9849 Alternative Narratives for Preventing the Radicalization of Muslim Youth By: Dr. Afzal Upal 1 Introduction The international jihadist movement has declared war. They have declared war on anybody who does not think and act exactly as they wish they would think and act. We may not like this and wish it would go away, but it’s not going to go away, and the reality is we are going to have to confront it. (Prime Minister Steven Harper, 8 Jan 2015) With an increasing number of Western Muslims falling prey to violent extremist ideologies and joining Jihadi organizations such as Al-Qaida and the ISIS, Western policy makers have been concerned with preventing radicalization of Muslim youth. This has resulted in a number of government sponsored efforts (e.g., MyJihad, Sabahi, and Maghrebia (Briggs and Feve 2013)) to counter extremist propaganda by arguing that extremist violent tactics used by Jihadist organizations are not congruent with Islamic tenets of kindness and just war. Despite the expenditure of significant resources since 2001, these efforts have had limited success. This article argues that in order to succeed we need to better understand Muslim core social identity beliefs (i.e., their perception of what it means to be a good Muslim) and how these beliefs are connected to Muslims perceptions of Westerners. A better understanding of the interdependent nature and dynamics of these beliefs will allow us to design counter radicalization strategies that have a better chance of success. 1 Dr. M Afzal Upal is a cognitive scientist of religion with expertise in the Islamic social and religious movements. -
Violent Jihad in the Netherlands
Violent Jihad in the Netherlands Current trends in the Islamist terrorist threat Violent Jihad in the Netherlands Current trends in the Islamist terrorist threat 2 Contents Foreword 5 Introduction 7 The murder of Theo van Gogh: consequences and effects 7 General trends in the development of jihadism 9 Framework of terms and definitions 10 1 From exogenous threat to home-grown terrorism 13 1.1 What is a jihadist network? 13 1.2 Historical development of network formation 15 1.2.1 The traditional phase: migration of jihadists 15 1.2.2 The proliferation phase: recruitment 16 1.2.3 The ‘home-grown’ phase: radicalisation and jihadisation 17 1.3 Three types of jihadist networks 17 2 Decentralisation and local implantation of international jihad19 2.1Al-Qaeda: from ‘network of gynetworks’ 19 to trademark and ideolo 2.2 Ideology of global violent jihad 21 2.3 Decentralisation of international jihad 22 2.4 Local implantation of international jihad 26 3 Radicalisation and the emergence of local networks 29 3.1Radicalisation, recruitment and jihadisation 29 3.2 The religious context of radicalisation 30 3.3 The socio-political context of radicalisation 33 3.4 The cultural and socio-psychological context of radicalisation 35 3.5 Emergence of local autonomous cells and networks 37 3.6 Backgrounds and functioning of local autonomous networks 38 3.7 The significance of the Hofstad network 39 4 Virtualisation of jihad 43 4.1The Internet as a propulsion of the jihad movement 43 4.2 Al-Qaeda as a virtual database (top-down) 44 4.3 The virtual umma (grass -
Abu Mus`Ab Al-Suri's Critique of Hard Line Salafists in the Jihadist Current
DECEMBER 2007 . VOL 1 . ISSUE 1 Abu Mus`ab al-Suri’s Salafism identify contemporary jihadists as While the term Salafism is historically simply radicalized elements within, or Critique of Hard Line associated with a late 19th and early as by-products of, a broader Salafist Salafists in the Jihadist 20th century Islamic reformist phenomenon. Instead, it may be more Current movement, today’s Salafists are very fruitful to speak of Salafism as one of different. Their main characteristic is several competing ideological strands By Brynjar Lia their strict emulation of the practices within the jihadist current. Furthermore, of the Prophet Muhammad and his one may identify a spectrum, or a the recent scholarly literature companions at the pristine Islamic continuum, of positions within the on al-Qa`ida has focused on studying age, and hence an abhorrence of any contemporary Salafi-jihadism, defined internal divisions and ideological later “innovation” (bid`a) in belief and by two extreme positions. schisms in the global jihadist current.1 religious practice, an obsession with This literature has uncovered important God’s oneness (tawhid), a rejection On the one extreme are hard line Salafist fault lines with regard to al-Qa`ida’s of human rationality and an extreme purists for whom doctrinal purity is of priorities on issues such as media and exclusiveness, even hatred, toward quintessential importance, even if it 3 propaganda efforts versus military other Islamic schools and tendencies. means fighting side battles, alienating organization. Differences over the Even if only a small segment of today’s allies and shattering any semblance of primacy of religious-theological purity Salafists support al-Qa`ida, the term a common front against the “Zionist- versus military-strategic effectiveness “Salafi-jihadism” has nevertheless been Crusader” enemy.