NEEDS & POPULATION MONITORING REPORT POPULATION BASELINE ROUND IV OCTOBER 2015
© NPM Lattakia team
SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Contents
1. Background ...... 3 2. Methodology ...... 3 2.1 Classification of Target Population ...... 4 2.2 Limitations ...... 5 3. Brief information on round IV (October 2015) ...... 6 4. Key findings ...... 7 5. Coverage ...... 8 6. Overview of target population categories by demographics ...... 8 6.1 Present population categories in assessed communities ...... 9 6.1.1 IDPs ...... 10 6.1.2 Returnees ...... 11 6.2 Population categories currently not present in the assessed locations ...... 11 6.2.1 Fled within Syria ...... 12 6.2.2 Fled out of Syria ...... 13 7. Overview of target population categories by type of shelter ...... 14 7.1 Resident AFFECTED population by Type of shelter ...... 15 7.2 Returnees by type of Shelter ...... 16 7.3 IDPs by type of shelter ...... 17 Annexes: ...... 18 Annex I ...... 19 Annex II ...... 20 Annex III ...... 24
Page 2 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM)
1. Background
The ongoing conflict in Syria, which continues to be dynamic, complex and multi-faceted, has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis since World War II. In order to respond to the continuous deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the country - characterized by poor access to basic goods and services, large-scale displacements, increasing vulnerabilities of populations in need, damage to key infrastructure, and restricted movement of goods and people - the humanitarian community has developed innovative approaches to comprehensive country-wide assessments of humanitarian needs.
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) is a set of tools and methods implemented through OCHA to identify, assess, and track target population categories within Syria in relation to needs and population mobility dynamics at the lowest geographical level possible. The NPM aims to assist the humanitarian community by regularly disseminating verified data on targeted population groups in accessible areas within Syria. Data collected serves as baseline information and intends to inform clusters, donors, and other humanitarian partners’ response inside Syria.
NPM initiative promotes a collaborative approach among aid actors in which local Syrian NGOs collect data and international partners provide technical support, capacity building, and coordination among the involved parties. NPM initiative is embedded within the Whole of Syria Needs Identification Framework (NIF), and as such supports established inter-agency coordination mechanisms at regional and country levels.
2. Methodology NPM is implemented in successive rounds of primary data collection on a monthly basis, aims to cover as many locations as possible at the lowest geographical level based on security and accessibility. Each round takes approximately three to four weeks of data collection, followed by data processing. The main data collection instruments for the fieldwork is the NPM Baseline Location Profile - Community Level Questionnaire known as B2 Form. In addition to this, the NPM Baseline Location Profile - Mobility Dynamic Monitoring Questionnaire known as B3 Form is used to update data that was collected in the previous round.
NPM Mobility Dynamic Assessment also aims at collecting monthly information on mobility pateerns of target population categories inside Syria through primary data collection at community level. . The presented figures in this report are the sum of the data that is collected in newly added locations through the B2 Form, as well as updated data of Round III, with the latest figures provided by the Mobility Dynamic Monitoring exercise held in October 2015 through the B3 Form1.
NPM is built around the collection of data from primary sources at the community level (also referred to as village/neighborhood) which is the lowest level of human setelement/lowest administrative unit inside Syria. Data collection at such level aims to provide beteer accuracy since the area for which key informants (KIs) are giving information relates directly to their actual area of knowledge.
NPM approach consists of primary data collection through multiple direct interviews with KIs and direct observation in different locations. Local and knowledgeable KIs are selected in target locations to get the best quality and reliability of the work done. These KIs include NGO/humanitarian aid workers, community based organization leaders, community leaders, health workers, religious leaders, teachers, traders/shopkeepers, local administration,
1 The NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring for October 2015 assessed 3,856 locations within 12 accessible governorates of Syria by taking 3,955 locations assessed in NPM Round III as baseline, with 67,5% coverage, involving 10 team leaders, 16 DPAs, 104 enumerators, and 10,355 KIs. This exercise focused on the movement of target population categories that occurred solely during October 2015.
Page 3 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015 military commanders, social workers, and group leaders of IDPs. In order to perform direct observation seen as complementary to the interviews held with the KIs, public places are visited as well.
Data collection teams in each governorate are composed of one or two team leader/s, data entry/processing assistants (DPAs), and a number of enumerators depending on the number of locations to be covered. Given the fact that having good access to and knowledge of target locations is critical in conducting fieldwork, all field data collection team members are selected locally based on their knowledge and network in the specific area or nearby locations where the data collection takes place. Regional/team leaders, DPAs, and enumerators who are selected in accordance with the criteria listed above by the implementing partners (IPs) undergo multiple trainings on NPM methodology including the questionnaire, selection of KIs, interview techniques, target groups, and locations. Depending on the circumstances induced by security restrictions and access constraints, these trainings are held either face-to-face or remotely.
Enumerators work mostly in pairs and collect quantitative data in the field through KI interviews and direct observation. Upon their return, each enumerator has a debriefing session with his/her team leader where they are asked to provide robust evidence (photos, lists, contact details of KIs) for the figures reported. However, data collection in inaccessible locations is conducted remotely and thus direct observation does not take place. With regard to the quality control and verification, the first phase takes place in the field. Each completed questionnaire is checked on a daily basis, verified by crosschecking information from multiple sources, and cleared by each corresponding team leader before it is entered into the database. Where mistakes are identified or further information is required, the corresponding data collector is asked to verify the data through either revisiting the site or contacting the KIs.Lastl y, team leaders conduct random calls in different communities located in each governorate to verify numbers provided. The second phase starts once all the data is entered into the database. The NPM team then uses random samples to check the quality of information and, if necessary, field teams in the covered governorates are consulted to further verify the identified issues. The third and final phase before the release of the report is the regular verification exercise.
The NPM provides information on the overall situation of target population and their locations by taking into consideration two main factors; mobility and type of residence. The scope of the NPM exercise focuses on the most vulnerable categories within Syria by looking at these two factors. Therefore, the population category of current resident populations not affected has not been included in this framework since this category has been influenced neither by mobility nor type of residence.
2.1 Classification of Target Population The NPM includes seven distinct categories of targeted population as per graph below. The first two categories relate to current resident populations within Syria who has or has not been affected in relation to shelter. The current resident population affected by shelter is defined as the resident population who is forced to move to another shelter within the same location, mainly because of shelter damage.The following two categories assess the resident populations within Syria who are currently absent from the location because they fled to another location either within or out of Syria. The fifth category relates to returnees2 who fled the location and returned since 2011, and the last two categories are for Syrian and non-Syrian IDPs who arrived in the location since 2011.
Within the framework of mobility, NPM includes following population categories: current resident population affected by shelter, resident population fled within or out of Syria3, returnees, and IDPs that arrived in the location
2 Definition of returnees is not related to the criteria of return in terms of safety and dignity, nor with any durable solutions defined strategy. NPM Baseline Assessments only record the estimated number of those who fled the community at one point since 2011 and have returned since. 3 NPM has no means of verification on the destination and exact figures submiteed under the population categories fled/left out and not returned (resident population that fled and not returned, IDPs that left and not returned), either if these fled out populations reached the destination or crossed the border.
Page 4 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015 since 2011. Data collected on these population categories relates to the date/year of movement, as well as the origin and destination of those movements. As for the type of residence, the NPM collects data on the current resident population affected, returnees, and IDPs who are considered to be in severe need of temporary accommodation by looking at the following categories:
In village/town, using rented accommodation In village/town, with host families (rent fee) In village/town, using abandoned buildings or public spaces In formal collective shelters (schools, public buildings, etc.) In informal collective shelters (schools, public buildings, etc.) In camps (organized and structured) In camps(self-settled “camps”) In own house
Current Resident Population AFFECTED by Shelter Aspect (currently present in the location) Current Resident Population (currently present in the location) Current Resident Population NON AFFECTED (currently present in the location)
Resident population that FLED and not returned but WITHIN SYRIA Resident Population that FLED (absent from the location) Resident population that FLED and not returned Target Population OUT of SYRIA
Returnees (currently present Resident Population that FLED and RETURNED to the in the location) location since 2011 (currently present in the location)
Syrian IDPs that arrived in the location since 2011 (currently present in the location) IDPs (currently present in the location) Non-Syrian IDPs that arrived in the location since 2011 (currently present in the location)
2.2 Limitations Recording mobility pateerns in real time has proven a difficult exercise considering the extremely dynamic population movements within Syria. For the time being, NPM has not been able to cover the governorate of Tartous, while the NPM coverage is below 50% for the governorates of Damascus (10%), Homs (33%), and Lateakia (14%).
Only 8 out of 104 enumerators (8%) and 641 out of 8,794 KIs (7%) were female. Gender imbalance caused by the low number of female enumerators and KIs should be considered while evaluating the assessment results.
Findings presented in this report are based on the best estimates provided by key informants interviewed during the data collection which carries limitations of its own. Some of the interviews were conducted remotely without direct observation in the locations due to issues of access and security constraints, hence resorting again to best possible estimates.
Page 5 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Moreover, it is important to note that the NPM has no means of verifying the destination and exact figures provided under the resident population that fled to the destination reported by KIs and have not returned. Whether these fled out populations actually reached the destination inside Syria or crossed the border as reported by key informants is not known. Therefore, population figures are subject to an undefined margin of error since it is based on the best estimates of the KIs who are from the location itself.
3. Brief information on round IV (October 2015) NPM Round IV assessed 4,123 locations within 13 accessible governorates out of total of 5,708 locations within 14 governorates of Syria, with 72% coverage involving 10 team leaders, 16 DPAs and 104 enumerators. 8,794 KIs were interviwed in October 2015. In this round, the presented figures arecalculated through aggregating the updated data of Round III4 with the latest figures provided by the Mobility Dynamic Monitoring exercise conducted in October 2015, and the data that is collected in newly added locations.
4,123 72% 104 8%
Total locations assessed in Of known 5,708 Enumerators Female locations assessed involved enumerators 13 Governorates
The table below shows the profiles of key informants interviewed.
8,794 93% 7%
Total key informants Male Female interviewed key informants key informants
Number Key informant Type Male Female Total % of total 1 Social Worker 1,334 180 1,514 17% 2 Local administration 1,373 28 1,401 16% 3 NGO/Humanitarian Aid Worker 838 166 1,004 11% 4 Trader/Shopkeeper 869 36 905 10% 5 Teachers 661 99 760 9% 6 Group Leader of IDP’s 744 5 749 9% 7 Community Leader 714 8 722 8% 8 Health Worker 405 73 478 5% 9 Other 416 37 453 5% 10 Religious leaders 413 2 415 5% 11 Community Based Organization Leader 279 7 286 3% 12 Military Commander 107 - 107 1% Total 8,153 641 8,794
This data has to be considered as an estimation rather than absolute figures of the population residing in the assessed governorates. All data sets for Round IV are available to the interested humanitarian partners for their use and analysis.
4 The NPM Round III in September 2015 assessed 3,955 locations within 12 accessible governorates out of a total of 5,708 locations within 14 governorates of Syria, with 69% coverage.
Page 6 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
4. Key findings
974,542 current 1,094,317 returnees 4,958,956 Syrian IDPs 4,188,873 people fled resident population out of Syria affected by shelter 63% of total returnees 1,324,433 are in Aleppo 57% to Turkey
in Aleppo and Idlib More than 50% of 908,429 are in Idleb 13% to Lebanon them are in Aleppo (399,042) and Rural 662,156 are in Rural 8% to Jordan Damascus (202,689) Damascus 2% to Iraq
Current resident Returnees Syrian IDPs People fled out of Syria population affected by 87% of returnees 42% in rented shelter stay in their own accommodation 60% fled out to Turkey 38% staying with houses 24% stay with host are from Aleppo host families 5% stay with host families 60% fled out to 27% in abandoned families 20% in abandoned Lebanon are from buildings 4% in abandoned buildings Homs and Rural 25% in rented buildings 6% in collective Damascus accommodation 3% in rented shelters 57% fled out to 9% continue to accommodation Jordan are from Dar’a stay in their own 1% in camps and 97% fled out to Iraq houses shelters are from Al-Hasakeh 1% in camps and shelters
Governorates of destination for IDPs have been displaced mostly within 6,419,916 people absent from their their governorate of origin location of origin as they fled to Intra-governorate displacement another location inside Syria 27% Rural Damascus 98% Dar’a 26% Aleppo 94% Deir-ez-Zor 11% Idleb 93% Lateakia 7% Ar Raqqa 88% Homs 7% Homs 80% Rural Damascus 5% Damascus 78% Al-Hasakeh 4% Dar’a 54% Damascus 2% Hama 52% Aleppo 1% Other 50% Ar-Raqqa
Page 7 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
5. Coverage NPM assessments of the communities within the accessible governorates of Syria are carried out by taking the list of communities on existing datasets (p-codes) used by OCHA and humanitarian agencies in Syria. Round IV, which took place in October 2015, assessed 4,123 locations within 13 governorates out of a total of 5,708 locations within 14 governorates.In comparison to its previous round, the NPM has increased its coverage by 3% in its fourth round and reachedup to 72% overall coverage.5 The governorates with high coverage are Quneitra (86%), As-Sweida (97%), Dar’a (98%), and Deir-ez-Zor (99%), in addition to Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa, and Idleb (all 100%). It is also important to note that the governorate of As-Sweida, which had not been covered in the previous three rounds, was covered to a great extent in this round. The percentage of the assessed communities in the remaining governorates except Rural Damascus (72%) and Hama (53%) became less than 50%.
NPM carried out its assessment in 206 sub-districts (out of total 272) with varying percentages of coverage. NPM reached over 80% communities in 180 sub-districts of which the majority is located in northern Syria.
Number of listed communities and assessed Percentage coverage in sub-districts based on number of communities per governorate, October 2015 communities assessed
4,123 5,708 NPM 4 assessed Total number of communities known communities Aleppo 1,376 1,377 Al-Hasakeh 785 786 Ar-Raqqa 339 340 Idleb 471 472 Deir-ez-Zor 145 146 Dar'a 159 162 As-Sweida 137 141 Quneitra 36 42 Rural Damascus 167 233 Hama 279 529 Homs 160 490 Lattakia 59 424 Damascus 10 99 Tartous - 467
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
6. Overview of target population categories by demographics
After giving estimated population figures of currently present population categories within 13 accessible governorates of Syria (current resident population affected by shelter, IDPs and returnees), specific data on the year of movement, as well as the direction of those movements, will be presented for IDPs and returnees. Then the population categories currently not present in the assessed locations will be submiteed with their estimated numbers, possible destinations, and the year of movement.
5 NPM Round III in September 2015 assessed 3,955 locations within 12 accessible governorates out of a total of 5,708 locations within 14 governorates of Syria, with 69% coverage.
Page 8 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
6.1 Present population categories in assessed communities Based on its community level assessment held in October 2015, the NPM Round IV estimates the number of current resident population affected by shelter as 974,542 individuals/190,647 households, returnees as1,094,317 individuals/215,647 households, and IDPs, both Syrian and non-Syrian, as 4,994,295 individuals/970,456 households.
More than half of the current resident population affected by shelter are in Aleppo (399,042 individuals) and Rural Damascus (202,689 individuals). Returnees in Aleppo and Idleb (677,600 individuals) represent 63% of total returnee population. The governorates hosting the highest number of IDPs are Aleppo (1,324,433 individuals), Idleb (908,429 individuals) and Rural Damascus (662,156 individuals). As for non-Syrian IDPs, Rural Damascus (22,760 individuals) alone hosts 64% of total number in this category. The map below shows the number of people by category in each governorates.
Page 9 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
6.1.1 IDPs In its fourth round, the NPM assessed 2,603 locations with IDP presence inside Syria. More than half of the assessed locations with IDP presence are spoteed in Aleppo with 1,065 locations and Idleb with 420 locations. Inthese locations, 10% (511,556 individuals) of the IDPs IDPs by Governorates in assessed locations, October 2015 arrived in the locations in 2012, 28% (1,377,527 Aleppo 1,324,433 individuals) in 2013, 24% (1,204,496 Idleb 908,429 individuals) in 2014, and 12% (591,503 Rural Damascus 662,156 individuals) in 2015. Approximately 70% of Hama 393,344 those who arrived in 2012 are in Homs (183,506 Homs 386,086 individuals) and Rural Damascus (167,567 Deir-ez-Zor 381,661 individuals). The great majority of IDPs who Al-Hasakeh 340,497 arrived in the locations in 2013 are composed Dar'a 311,828 of those in Aleppo (487,973 individuals), Rural Damascus 94,708 Damascus (335,504 individuals) and Hama As-Sweida 52,936 (236,415 individuals). However, in 2014, half of Quneitra 50,128 those having arrived in the locations (637,535 Ar-Raqqa 38,967 individuals) were spoteed in Aleppo alone. Lattakia 13,783 Nearly 42% (246,541 individuals) of the total Tartous - number of IDPs that arrived during 2015 are in Al-Hasakeh.
IDPs by Governorates and Year of Arrival, October 2015 Number of Governorate locations Total IDPs 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Unknown Aleppo 1,065 1,324,433 1,700 46,879 487,973 637,535 117,268 33,078 Idleb 420 908,429 - 53,085 64,570 26,250 16,835 747,689 Rural Damascus 113 662,156 14,775 167,567 335,504 109,187 34,275 848 Hama 150 393,344 - 2,033 236,415 132,771 16,542 5,583 Homs 86 386,086 9,692 183,506 61,995 95,321 22,702 12,870 Deir-ez-Zor 127 381,661 - 767 - - - 380,894 Al-Hasakeh 234 340,497 - 6,033 58,093 25,450 246,541 4,380 Dar'a 96 311,828 - 3,199 110,783 168,489 29,125 232 Damascus 6 94,708 - 1,500 - - 93,208 - As-Sweida 36 52,936 - 27,710 175 - 525 24,526 Quneitra 28 50,128 - 15,500 13,980 8,357 12,066 225 Ar-Raqqa 203 38,967 - 35 40 420 1,090 37,382 Lateakia 39 13,783 - 3,742 7,999 716 1,326 - Tartous ------TOTAL 2,603 4,958,956 26,167 511,556 1,377,527 1,204,496 591,503 1,247,707
IDPs are mainly displaced from the governorates of Aleppo (16% or 810,047 individuals), Homs (16% or 796,430 individuals), Rural Damascus (13% or 621,757 individuals), Hama (9% or 437,797 individuals), Idleb (9% or 437,048 individuals), and Deir-ez-Zor (8% or 413,936 individuals) – Refer Annex II for details.
The main characteristic of internal displacement within Syria is that IDPs have been displaced mostly within their governorate of origin. The map below shows percentage of IDPs displaced within same governorate.
Page 10 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
6.1.2 Returnees6
Returnees refer to those who fled out from the community at one Number of % of total point since 2011 and have returned. NPM Round IV held in October Governorates returnees returnees 2015 estimates the number of returnees as 1,094,317 individuals. Idleb 344,001 31% Returnees in Idleb (344,001 individuals) and Aleppo (333,599 Aleppo 333,599 30% individuals) represent 63% of the total number of returnees. Homs 128,984 12% Remaining 37% of the returnees are dispersed as follows: 12% in Deir-ez-Zor 113,795 10% Homs (128,984 individuals), 10% in Deir-ez-Zor (113,795 individuals), Damascus 54,815 5% 5% in Damascus (54,815 individuals), 3% in Dar’a (34,262 Dar'a 34,262 3% individuals), 3% in Rural Damascus (28,796 individuals), and 4% in the Rural Damascus 28,796 3% governorates of Al-Hasakeh (15,617 individuals), Hama (14,590 Al-Hasakeh 15,617 1% individuals), Ar-Raqqa (12,292 individual), Quneitra (13,186 Hama 14,590 1% individuals) and Lateakia (380 individuals). Quneitra 13,186 1% Ar-Raqqa 12,292 1% 6.2 Populationcategories currently not present in the Lattakia 380 0.03% assessed locations7 Tartous - 0% As-Sweida - 0% Population categories currently not present in the assessed locations Total 1,094,317 are composed of the ones who fled to another location within the country and those who fled abroad. For the first category, the estimation of NPM Round IV assessment is 6,419,916 individuals/1,234,497 households. As for the second category, the estimation is nearly 4,188,873 individuals/818,618
6 Definition of returnees is not related with criteria of return in safety and dignity, nor with any durable solutions defined strategy. NPM Baseline Assessments only record the estimated number of those who fled out from the community at one point since 2011 and have returned. 7 All presented data under this category is based on the best estimates of the KIs and the NPM has no means of verification on the destination and exact figures submiteed under the resident population that fled and not returned, either if these fled out populations reached the destination or crossed the border.
Page 11 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015 households. For both categories, aggregated numbers of those who fled Aleppo and Rural Damascus and have not returned since represent more than half of the total figures. Distribution of population categories not present in the location, October 2015
Governorate Fled within Syria Fled out of Syria Aleppo 2,112,021 1,616,467 Rural Damascus 1,361,256 847,030 Damascus 708,865 212,220 Homs 564,683 384,516 Hama 514,792 162,385 Deir-ez-Zor 402,000 88,549 Idleb 335,777 255,061 Dar'a 174,582 227,634 Al-Hasakeh 111,462 313,795 Ar-Raqqa 71,252 50,325 Quneitra 41,699 13,804 Lattakia 17,798 13,001 As-Sweida 3,729 4,086 Tartous - - Total 6,419,916 4,188,873
6.2.1 Fled within Syria This category provides data on the resident population who are currently absent from the location because of having fled into another location within Syria since 2011 and not returned. NPM Round IV assessment spoteed 2,234 locations where resident population fled their locations and headed to another place within the country.
Resident Population Fled Within Syria by Year and Governorate - October 2015 Number of Governorate Locations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Unknown Total Aleppo 620 - 582,155 614,380 468,604 168,168 278,714 2,112,021 Al-Hasakeh 332 30 1,403 12,265 27,560 38,984 31,220 111,462 Ar-Raqqa 226 - 155 56 883 755 69,403 71,252 As-Sweida 15 - 189 - 2,225 - 1,315 3,729 Damascus 10 - 495,360 213,505 - - - 708,865 Dar'a 130 - 45,993 87,194 9,027 32,356 12 174,582 Deir-ez-Zor 130 - 50 - - 135 401,815 402,000 Hama 231 - 69,929 148,794 145,442 123,686 26,941 514,792 Homs 89 15,000 335,551 159,266 16,807 16,385 21,674 564,683 Idleb 231 - 4,936 17,242 37,460 28,050 248,089 335,777 Lattakia 56 - 16,137 1,156 240 - 265 17,798 Quneitra 35 1,600 11,565 14,785 13,624 - 125 41,699 Rural Damascus 129 29,781 636,398 610,360 74,750 9,410 557 1,361,256 Tartous ------Total 2,234 46,411 2,199,821 1,879,003 796,622 417,929 1,080,130 6,419,916 % - 1% 34% 29% 12% 7% 17% 100%
Page 12 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Almost one third of these spoteed locations are in Aleppo (620 locations). Other governorates having high number of locations with fled within Syria populations are Al-Hasakeh (332 locations), Ar-Raqqa (226 locations), Hama, and Idleb (each has 231 locations).
The total population of those who are currently absent from the location because of having fled into another location inside Syria is estimated at 6,419,916 individuals, of which 34% (2,199,821 individuals) fled in 2012, 29% (1,879,003 individuals) in 2013, 12% (796,622 individuals) in 2014, and 7% (417,929 individuals) in 2015. Concerning the governorate of destination for the fled-within-Syria population, Rural Damascus was assessed with 27% (1,751,045 individuals) and Aleppo with 26% (1,693,840 individuals), followed by Idleb with 11% (723,338 individuals), Ar-Raqqa (440,620 individuals), and Homs (429,362 individuals) with 7% for each, Damascus with 5% (350,007 individuals), Dar’a with 4% (266,829 individuals), Hama with 2% (124,562 individuals) and the remaining five governorates with 1% for each.
Number of Those Fled within Syria by Governorate of Origin and Governorate of Destination, October 2015
Governorate of Destination
Zor
-
ez
Governorate -
Sweida
Raqqa
Hasakeh
-
- of Origin -
Aleppo Al Ar As Damascus Dar’a Deir Hama Homs Idleb Lattakia Quneitra Rural Damascus Tartous Unknown Aleppo 1,648,153 - 48,989 - 50,940 300 350 200 - 58,310 9,935 - 65 14,060 280,719
Al-Hasakeh - 65,542 2,396 - - - - - 90 12,120 160 - - 600 30,554
Ar-Raqqa 1,500 75 42,837 124 1,453 - - 11,423 6,240 - 7,310 - - 45 245
As-Sweida - - - 2,494 - 160 ------1,075
Damascus - - - - 112,905 ------595,960 - -
Dar’a - - - 4,475 19,336 150,759 ------12
Deir-ez-Zor - 95 318,619 - 12,389 - 67,211 - - 3,162 - - - - 524
Hama 24,990 - 12,879 - - 90 - 88,291 3,214 362,222 - - - 386 22,720
Homs 4,530 - 14,400 - 4,250 - - 5,103 419,818 15,037 - - 53,906 40,110 7,529
Idleb 14,667 - 500 4,532 4,751 20 49 19,545 - 265,169 12,380 - 410 240 13,514
Lattakia ------7,318 10,215 - - - 265
Quneitra - - - - 18,170 ------21,479 2,050 - -
Rural Damascus - 482 - 4,750 125,813 115,500 - - - - - 15,500 1,098,654 - 557
Tartous ------
Total 1,693,840 66,194 440,620 16,375 350,007 266,829 67,610 124,562 429,362 723,338 40,000 36,979 1,751,045 55,441 357,714
% 0.26 1% 7% 0% 5% 4% 1% 2% 7% 11% 1% 1% 27% 1% 6%
With regard to the governorate of origin of those fled-within-Syria, it is noted that the majority of the people in this category not only fled within Syria, but also within their own governorate. This pateern is noteworthy, particularly in Dar’a (86%), Rural Damascus (81%), Idleb (79%), Aleppo (78%) and Homs (74%). Damascus, Deir-ez-Zor, and Hama are the governorates breaking out of this pateern by having significantly less number of people who fled into another location within their own governorate.
6.2.2 Fled out of Syria This category presents data on the resident population who are currently absent from the location because of having fled into another location out of Syria as of 2011 and have not returned since then. NPM Round IV recorded 3,507 locations where esr ident population fled to another country. Of those locations, nearly two fifths were recorded in Aleppo (1,319 locations). Other governorates with high numbers of locations from which people fled abroad are Al- Hasakeh (754 locations), Idleb (319 locations), Hama (246 locations), and Ar-Raqqa (231 locations).
Page 13 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Resident Population Fled-out-of-Syria by Year and Governorate - October 2015 Number of Governorate Locations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Unknown Total Aleppo 1,319 7,275 290,219 645,613 592,743 53,339 27,278 1,616,467 Al-Hasakeh 754 145 5,806 99,388 52,882 153,008 2,566 313,795 Ar-Raqqa 231 - 79 150 291 782 49,023 50,325 As-Sweida 28 - - - - 1,941 2,145 4,086 Damascus 10 - 111,750 100,470 - - - 212,220 Dar'a 144 - 136,640 84,232 4,595 96 2,071 227,634 Deir-ez-Zor 141 - - - 671 - 87,878 88,549 Hama 246 - 17,545 65,234 67,676 8,161 3,769 162,385 Homs 102 200 152,347 161,741 66,715 1,022 2,491 384,516 Idleb 319 75 4,475 11,215 4,034 5,080 230,182 255,061 Lattakia 42 - 10,104 2,315 565 - 17 13,001 Quneitra 33 - 4,506 7,316 1,922 - 60 13,804 Rural 138 43,743 158,434 602,160 42,396 - 297 847,030 Damascus Tartous ------Total 3,507 51,438 891,905 1,779,834 834,490 223,429 407,777 4,188,873 % - 1% 21% 42% 20% 5% 10% 100%
Out of an estimated 4.2 million people who fled out of Syria, 42% (1,779,834 individuals) moved out of their locations in 2013, which is the approximate total of those fled abroad in 2012 (21% or 891,905 individuals) and in 2014 (20% or 834,490 individuals). Those who fled abroad in 2011 and 2015 represent 1% (51,438 individuals) and 5% (223,429 individuals), respectively.
In 2011, 85% (43,743 individuals) of those that fled abroad moved from Rural Damascus. From 2012 to 2013, those having fled their locations in Aleppo and Rural Damascus to go abroad represent 50% (290,219 individuals from Aleppo and 158,434 individuals from Rural Damascus) and 70% (645,613 individuals from Aleppo and 602,160 individuals from Rural Damascus), respectively. However, during 2014, 70% (592,743 individuals) of the total number of those who fled abroad departed from Aleppo. In 2015, 68% (153,008 individuals) left from Al-Hasakeh.
Among those who fled abroad as of 2011 and have not returned since then, it is estimated that 57% (2,377,250 individuals) headed to Turkey, 13% (558,327 individuals) to Lebanon, 8% (327,284 individuals) to Jordan, and 2% (63,886 individuals) to Iraq. 60% (1,425,936 individuals) of the resident population that fled to Turkey are from Aleppo. Of those heading to Lebanon, 60% (334,715 individuals in total) departed from the governorates of Homs and Rural Damascus. 57% of those that fled their locations to go to Jordan are from Dar’a and 97% of those heading to Iraq are from Al-Hasakeh. Refer Annex II for details.
7. Overview of target population categories by type of shelter
The residences assessment was designed for the purpose of improving understanding of the shelter conditions of following population categories: (Cat.1) Resident population AFFECTED – those who are forced to move to another shelter in the same location mainly because of shelter damage, (Cat.5) Returnees, and (Cat.6) IDPs.
Page 14 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
7.1 Resident AFFECTED population by Type of shelter 38% (376,347 individuals) of the total number of the current resident population affected by shelter in Syria stay with host families, 27% (265,945 individuals) are in abandoned buildings, and 25% (244,263 individuals) rent accommodation. More than half of those staying with host families and renting accommodation are in Aleppo. 48% (121,600 individuals) of those staying in abandoned buildings are in Rural Damascus. 9% (93,542 individuals) still stay in their own houses, a great majority of whom are in Idleb, Rural Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. Remaining 1% (6,358 individuals) stay in camps and shelters. The chart below shows the top three residence types for population affected by shelter damage in each governorate.
Page 15 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
7.2 Returnees by type of Shelter The great majority of returnees (87% or 966,535 individuals) stay in their own houses. Of those staying in their own houses, 391,580 individuals are in Aleppo and 322,962 individuals are Idleb. Among the remaining returnees, 5% (53,422 individuals) stay with host families, 4% (39,185 individuals) are in abandoned buildings, 3% (35,355 individuals) rent accommodation, and 1% (8,310 individuals) are in camps and shelters. More than three-quarters of those staying in abandoned buildings are in Aleppo. Idleb hosts 70% of the returnees renting accommodation and 57% of those staying with host families. The chart below shows the top three residence types for returnees in each governorate.
Page 16 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
7.3 IDPs by type of shelter Of the total number of IDPs, 42% are in rented accommodation, 24% staying with host families, and 20% are in abandoned buildings. Approximately half of those living in abandoned buildings are in Aleppo. 6% of the total IDP population are in formal and informal collective shelters. More than half of those staying in formal collective shelters are in Dar’a and almost one third of those staying in informal collective shelters are in Deir-ez-Zor. The IDPs living in camps represent 5% of the total IDP population. The majority of those living in organized camps are in Idleb and nearly half of those in self-seteled camps are in Aleppo. 3% staying in their own house. The chart below shows the top three residence types for IDPs in each governorate.
Page 17 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Annexes:
Annex I: links to NPM Round IV products. Annex II: Tables. Annex III: NPM Baseline Monitoring Questionnaire B2.
For more information please contact: [email protected]
Page 18 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
Annex I Annex I : Links to Products :
1. Online map : http://bit.do/NPMCovMap
2. Dataset : http://bit.do/NPM_RND4_Report
Page 19 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
A. Number of Individuals by Population Category and Governorate, October 2015 Annex II
1.Current Resident 2.Current Resident population population NOT Governorate AFFECTED affected 5.RETURNEES 6.IDP 7.IDP NON Syrians Aleppo 399,042 2,577,825 333,599 1,324,433 560 Al-Hasakeh 585 735,652 15,617 340,497 5,015 Ar-Raqqa 6,526 660,756 12,292 38,967 - As-Sweida 50 279,448 - 52,936 - Damascus 31,635 95,075 54,815 94,708 1,550 Dar'a 45,206 521,147 34,262 311,828 156 Deir-ez-Zor 31,063 1,024,323 113,795 381,661 8 Hama 73,043 728,838 14,590 393,344 5,100 Homs 107,311 621,101 128,984 386,086 - Idleb 73,522 994,419 344,001 908,429 190 Lattakia 1,026 7,486 380 13,783 - Quneitra 2,844 34,705 13,186 50,128 - Rural Damascus 202,689 796,393 28,796 662,156 22,760 Tartous - - - - -
Total 974,542 9,077,168 1,094,317 4,958,956 35,339
B. Number of Households by Population Category and Governorate, October 2015
2.Current Resident 1.Current Resident population NOT population AFFECTED affected 5.RETURNEES 6.IDP 7.IDP NON Syrians Governorate # HH # HH # HH # HH # HH Aleppo 79,778 513,424 66,400 260,403 112 Al-Hasakeh 117 148,081 2,907 69,034 878 Ar-Raqqa 1,305 131,209 2,424 7,779 - As-Sweida 10 63,333 - 9,160 - Damascus 6,327 19,029 10,963 18,800 310 Dar'a 8,513 104,168 6,532 60,980 28 Deir-ez-Zor 6,104 204,736 22,754 76,025 1 Hama 12,726 146,706 2,558 67,405 850 Homs 20,287 123,617 24,104 70,066 - Idleb 14,332 195,400 68,286 177,607 38 Lattakia 219 1,486 76 2,780 - Quneitra 564 6,942 2,623 10,010 - Rural Damascus 40,365 160,256 6,020 133,638 4,552 Tartous - - - - - Total 190,647 1,818,387 215,647 963,687 6,769
Page 20 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
C. Number of IDPs by Current Governorate and Governorate of Origin, October 2015
Governorates of Origin
-
ez
-
Sweida
Raqqa
-
- Current - Governorate Aleppo Al Hasakeh Ar As Damascus Dar'a Deir Zor Hama Homs Idleb Lattakia Quneitra Rural Damascus Tartous Unknown Aleppo 686,400 - 2,875 - 629 - - 8,225 1,055 37,218 10 - - - 588,021
Al-Hasakeh 4,866 264,603 3,519 - 13,548 - 53,121 - - - - - 20 - 820
Ar-Raqqa 3,073 823 19,531 - - - 1,047 150 13,894 70 - - 59 - 320
As-Sweida - - - - 12,569 37,753 ------2,345 - 269
Damascus - - - - 51,613 ------43,095 - -
Dar'a - - - - - 306,644 ------4,952 - 232
Deir-ez-Zor - 715 - - 7,332 - 359,768 - 13,846 ------
Hama 53,216 ------67,996 212,919 55,370 - - - - 3,843
Homs 2,935 ------310 340,551 - - - 27,155 - 15,135
Idleb 59,557 - - - 1,125 - - 361,116 135,890 343,477 3,485 - - 645 3,134
Lattakia ------913 12,870 - - - -
Quneitra - - - - 1,576 11,736 - - - - - 21,700 15,116 - -
Rural Damascus - - - - 53,848 - - - 78,275 - - - 529,015 - 1,018
Tartous ------
TOTAL 810,047 266,141 25,925 - 142,240 356,133 413,936 437,797 796,430 437,048 16,365 21,700 621,757 645 612,792
D. Resident Population Fled-out-of-Syria by Destination ,Country and Governorate of Origin, October 2015
Governorate of Destination Country Origin Jordan Turkey Lebanon Iraq Other Unknown Aleppo 4,659 1,425,936 25,249 1,469 58,880 100,274 Al-Hasakeh - 196,064 9,082 61,917 44,896 1,836 Ar-Raqqa 85 1,078 374 - 191 48,597 As-Sweida - - - - - 1,881 Damascus 10,000 67,500 85,075 - 49,645 - Dar'a 187,789 55 28,403 - 2,902 8,485 Deir-ez-Zor - 3,660 - - 1,985 82,904 Hama 19,984 102,288 19,032 - 6,771 11,860 Homs 1,490 69,096 182,980 - 28,828 22,682 Idleb 910 140,205 50,115 - 5,545 58,286 Lattakia - 12,984 - - - 17 Quneitra 486 - 6,282 - 7,026 10 Rural Damascus 101,880 358,384 151,735 500 233,109 1,422 Tartous ------Total 327,283 2,377,250 558,327 63,886 439,778 338,254 % 8% 57% 13% 2% 10% 8%
Page 21 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
E. Residence types for population affected by shelter damage in each governorate
With Host In In Formal In Informal In In Self In Rented Families Abandoned Collective Collective Organized Settled In Own Governorate Accommodation Without Rent Buildings Shelters Shelters Camps Camps House Aleppo 158,165 222,515 69,738 170 85 - - 18,180 Al-Hasakeh 25 60 - - 50 - - 250 Ar-Raqqa 585 310 50 50 10 25 - 2,485 As-Sweida - 50 ------Damascus - 1,500 48,385 - - - - - Dar'a - 44,280 ------Deir-ez-Zor 2,535 3,427 516 100 1,082 - 555 1,028 Hama 16,584 20,440 9,045 - 2,906 - - 7,954 Homs 35,311 31,558 14,100 - - - - 19,357 Idleb 10,640 19,181 1,485 175 400 - 750 22,903 Lattakia - - 1,026 - - - - - Quneitra - 1,494 ------Rural Damascus 20,418 31,532 121,600 - - - - 21,385 Tartous ------244,263 376,347 265,945 495 4,533 25 1,305 93,542 TOTAL 24.8% 38.2% 27.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 9.5%
F. Returnees by Type of Shelter and Governorate, October 2015
In Formal In Informal In Self In Rented With Host In Abandoned Collective Collective In Organized Settled In Own Governorate Accommodation Without Rent Buildings Shelters Shelters Camps Camps House Aleppo 2,190 5,575 33,485 - - - 100 391,580 Al-Hasakeh 1,780 25 - - - - - 3,050 Ar-Raqqa 1,250 765 300 460 225 175 25 3,770 As-Sweida ------Damascus - - 2,600 - - - - 53,725 Dar'a - 790 - - - 20 - 31,023 Deir-ez-Zor 2,825 9,005 700 2,525 1,690 - 530 42,035 Hama 392 1,188 775 - 25 - - 15,031 Homs 1,858 2,282 - - - - - 76,457 Idleb 24,770 30,592 425 60 1,050 - 50 322,962 Lattakia ------367 Quneitra ------12,620 Rural Damascus 290 3,200 900 - 1,375 - - 13,915 Tartous ------35,355 53,422 39,185 3,045 4,365 195 705 966,535 TOTAL 3.2% 4.8% 3.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 87.6%
Page 22 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
G. IDPs by Type of Shelter and Governorate, October 2015
In In Formal In Informal In In Self In Rented With Host Abandoned Collective Collective Organized Settled In Own Governorate Accommodation Without Rent Buildings Shelters Shelters Camps Camps House Aleppo 558,518 179,901 427,813 2,420 30,324 330 58,844 51,223 Al-Hasakeh 176,207 119,090 2,250 7,875 5,255 1,015 6,351 - Ar-Raqqa 9,323 8,812 2,095 3,875 3,040 1,625 2,385 2,025 As-Sweida 48,666 - 228 - - 1,295 - 2,749 Damascus 9,185 10,250 75,273 - - - - - Dar'a 28,956 136,302 67,645 77,498 2,043 - 1,965 - Deir-ez-Zor 246,766 57,259 12,519 12,935 45,165 510 5,425 180 Hama 270,862 87,203 3,985 5,557 2,166 - 2,686 630 Homs 132,243 164,999 24,042 8,326 9,471 - 275 5,200 Idleb 228,620 225,681 48,269 4,162 34,420 122,650 34,793 50,159 Lattakia 50 155 8,583 - - - 4,583 - Quneitra 1,392 42,041 25 - 2,496 - 3,002 - Rural 258,908 108,139 254,818 16,850 9,955 - 1,000 13,756 Damascus Tartous ------1,969,696 1,139,832 927,545 139,498 144,335 127,425 121,309 125,922 TOTAL 42% 24% 20% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Page 23 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
BASELINE LOCATION PROFILE, Community Level B2F Annex III FORM QUESTIONNAIRE │ Version: 5.0 Needs & Population Monitoring (NPM)│
GUIDELINES AND INSTRUCTIONS Objective of the baseline is to identify affected population categories in Syria based on mobility and on lowest geographical level possible. Researcher should be familiar with the Community that is subject of observation (village, small town, or the neighbourhood of the capital city – Hay). Review existing knowledge of location and categories of affected population and their number in the comunity. Make notes and identify key informants from different organizations or population groups that can help get latest reliable information. Key question: Are there diferent population categories-groups in this comunity? Population categories/groups are defined based on mobility (moved out, moved in from elswhere, residents that changed shelter if affected, residents that did not change shelter). Questionnaire is just a tool to record the information. In discussion with key informants the researcher should get the best possible information on the topics in the form. WHERE? LIST different TYPE OF SITE/RESIDENCE by population category for affected, returnees and internally displaced. WHO? Current resident population AFFECTED (damaged shelter and /or moved in another building/shelter in the same location): Current resident population NOT affected (not damaged shelter and NOT moved -remained in same residence): Resident population that FLED and not returned (left the location) to another location WITHIN SYRIA (currently absent from the location): Resident population that FLED and has not returned (left the location) to another location OUT of SYRIA (currently absent from the location): RETURNEES of the resident population that fled and returned to the location (currently present in the location): INTERNALY DISPLACED SYRIANS that arrived in the location since 2011 (currently present in the location): INTERNALY DISPLACED NON Syrians that arrived in the location since 2011 (currently present in the location): HOW MANY? Best estimate of number. Use always average five members per household. Try to find out if there is any list or record keeping of the population groups in the locations. WHEN, TO WHERE and FROM WHERE? Time of movement by year. Origin and destination based on movement. FOR FOLLOW UP If Key Informant agrees please provide name. Contact will be used for follow-up site assessments on conditions and needs of the affected population.
Page 24 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
A. LOCATION AND TEAM MEMBERS
Date of Assessment d d - m m - y y y y Researcher
Organization: name contact
Team Leader: name contact Implementing Partner (IP) ↓ IP - Processing Team (IP_PT) ↓ Mohafaza Mantika 1. Nahya
Governorate District Sub -district
For rural areas: Village, small town – community level. For Capital of Governorate: neighborhood/hay level. Use the names and codes from the lists and maps. 2. Capital City Community C_PCODE Type 1. Urban 2. Rural 1.1 Village, town Community C_PCODE Type 1. Urban 2.1 HAY in CC B. DEMOGRAPHICS: Population categories based on mobility and estimated numbers SOURCES
0.Resident population baseline 2011 Kn Un HHs # IND #
1.Current Resident population AFFECTED (damaged shelter and Yes HHs # IND # Un /or moved in another building/shelter in the same location): No
2.Current Resident population NOT affected (not damaged Yes HHs # IND # Un shelter and NOT moved -remained in same residence): No 3.Resident population that FLED and not returned (left the Yes location) to another location WITH IN SYRIA (currently absent No HHs # IND # Un from the location): 4.Resident population that FLED and not returned (left the Yes location) to another location OUT of SYRIA (currently absent No HHs # IND # Un from the location):
5.RETURNEES of the resident population that fled and returned Yes HHs # IND # Un to the location (currently present in the location): No
6.INTERNALY DISPLACED SYRIANS that arrived in the location Yes HHs # IND # Un since 2011 (currently present in the location): No
7.INTERNALY DISPLACED NON Syrians that arrived in the Yes HHs # IND # Un location since 2011 (currently present in the location): No
C. TIMELINE: Year of mobility event population categories 1. Year when majority of the population FLED the location to another location 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 WITH IN SYRIA (cat:3) 2. Year when majority of the population FLED the location to another location 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 OUT of SYRIA (cat: 4)
Page 25 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
3. Year when majority of the RETURNEE population returned to the location 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (cat: 5) 4. Year when majority of the DISPLACED population arrived to the location 201 2011 2012 2013 2014 (cat:6&7) 5 D. DESTINATION & ORIGIN: From where, by mobility event and population categories
Governorate District Sub-district Place 1. WHERE TO majority of the population FLED the location to another location WITH IN SYRIA (cat:3) 4. FROM WHERE in Syria majority of the DISPLACED population arrived to the location (cat:6&7) 2. WHERE TO majority of the population FLED the Country Place location to another location OUT of SYRIA (cat: 4) 3. FROM WHERE majority of the RETURNEE Out of Syria With IN population returned to the location (cat: 5) Country Syria Gov. E. TYPE OF SITE/RESIDENCE by population category, list where Population category 1, 5,6 is living ( please assort them according to the majority 1st, 2nd and 3rd ) DON’T include category 7 , and if all Category 5 returned to their own original houses just ignore and indicate where category 1 and category 6 is living. Type of Temporary Settlements for Affected Pop. Exist #Units Pop. Cat. 1,5,6 #HHs IND DNK 1 In village/town, using rented accomodation 1st: Un (consider only 1,5,or 6 pop. cat) Y N 2nd: Un 3rd : Un 2 In village/town, with host families no rent fee Y N 1st: Un (consider only 1,5,or 6 pop. cat) 2nd: Un 3rd : Un 3 In village/town, using unfinished abandoned Y N 1st: Un buildings or public spaces (consider only 1,5,or 6 2nd: Un pop. cat) 3rd : Un 4 In formal collective shelters (schools, public Y N 1st: Un buildings, vacanted, etc…) (consider only 1,5,or 6 2nd: Un pop. cat) 3rd : Un 5 In informal collective shelters Y N 1st: Un (schools, public buildings, vacanted, etc…) 2nd: Un (consider only 1,5,or 6 pop. cat) 3rd : Un
6 Camps, organized and structured Y N 1st: Un (consider only 1,5,6 or7 pop. cat) 2nd: Un
3rd : Un
Page 26 of 27
Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM), Round IV, October 2015
7 Camps, self settled “camps” Y N 1st: Un (consider only 1,5,or 6 pop. cat) 2nd: Un 3rd : Un 8 In their OWN house Y N 1st: Un (consider only 1,5,or 6 pop. cat) 2nd: Un 3rd : Un
F. KEY INFORMANT DETAILS
If Key informant agrees please provide name. Contact will be used for follow up assessment on population conditions and needs.
For Column C. Type use: 1.NGO/Humanitarian Aid Worker; 2.Community Based Organization Leader; 3.Community Leader; 4. Health Worker 5. Religious leaders; 6.Teachers; 7. Trader/Shopkeeper; 8.Local administration;9 . Military Commander; 10. Social Worker; 11. Group Leader of IDP’s; 12. Other, please specify in contact column. NAME AND SURNAME Type Sex Contact Details if informant agrees, if not mark XX and state the type M/F (Phone or Address) and sex only A B C D E
1
2
3
Page 27 of 27