Natural Resources and Forestry Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section
Effects of climate change on Ontario’s aquatic ecosystems
Cindy Chu, Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section [email protected] Workshop on Extreme Weather and Shoreline Property August 8 2017 Climate change in the news Climate change in the news Climate change in the news IPCC, 2014
Mean sea level rise Atmospheric rivers Extreme flood or drought events
Stream ecosystems
temperature coarse material flow (forest litter)
fine material and photosynthesis
photosynthesis and very fine material Biological communities respond to changing stream conditions
Vannote et al. 1980 Maximum weekly average temperature (C)
28 – 34 24 – 28 20 – 24 16 – 20 12 – 16
Forecasted temperatures
e.g., A2 2050s Mississippi and Rideau valley streams Stream temperatures Lakes Maximum surface temperatures of lakes Temperature changes affect fishes differently Fish habitat
Now 2050s Cold (<19C) 65% 49% Cool (19-25C) 34% 46% Warm (>25 C) 1% 5%
Mississippi provide more coldwater habitat than Rideau watershed in the future Current
Brook trout
2020s
2050s Current Walleye
Current
2011-2040
Probability of occurrence low high 2020s 1
2041-2070
2050s Smallmouth Bass Current
Current
2011-2040
Probability of occurrence low high 2020s 1
2041-2070
2050s Warmwater species moving north Global patterns and across taxa Climate change affects fisheries catch
1970-90s
COOLWATER SPECIES e.g., Alewife COLDWATER SPECIES e.g., Lake trout 30.0 LAKE TROUT
In situ lake 25.0 Laboratory
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Y (survival) = 68.8 – 5.27 X (temp) N = 9 r = 0.970 P < 0.0001
0.0 FRY SURVIVAL AT EMERGANCE (%) EMERGANCE AT SURVIVAL FRY
-5.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 WATER TEMPERATURE AT SPAWNING TIME (°C) Community shifts – less walleye more Centrarchids
1980-2000s
Lake Scugog Rice Lake
Balsam Lake Buckhorn Lake
Robillard and Fox 2006 Smallmouth Bass nesting earlier
Spawning day
Ice-out day 1962-2014 Bass spawning 2 d/decade
Ridgway pers. comm.
Raise awareness
http://www.climateontario.ca/scripts/MNR_Pub/mnr_video.php Restore or expand shoreline forests and vegetation; improve shading and cooling of streams Keep or restore natural shorelines Restore natural channels Convert dams to release cool waters downstream, dam removal Limit surface and groundwater withdrawals to maintain flow and temperature OMNRF vulnerability assessments Northeast Clay Belt
Mississippi-Rideau Valleys
Lake Simcoe watershed
Peel Region Adjust fishing regulations such as catch limits, slot size limits, season lengths, and protected areas Next steps in climate change research Delineating climate refugia Headwaters Groundwater discharge zones High elevations Deep lakes Climate and other stressors
Species invasions
Habitat/stressors Thanks! Questions? Acknowledgements
OMNRF Climate change office – Jenny Gleeson, Rachel Gagnon, Gary Nielsen, Paul Gray, Josh Cornfield