Natural Resources and Forestry Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section Effects of climate change on Ontario’s aquatic ecosystems Cindy Chu, Aquatic Research and Monitoring Section [email protected] Workshop on Extreme Weather and Shoreline Property August 8 2017 Climate change in the news Climate change in the news Climate change in the news IPCC, 2014 Mean sea level rise Atmospheric rivers Extreme flood or drought events Stream ecosystems temperature coarse material flow (forest litter) fine material and photosynthesis photosynthesis and very fine material Biological communities respond to changing stream conditions Vannote et al. 1980 Maximum weekly average temperature (C) 28 – 34 24 – 28 20 – 24 16 – 20 12 – 16 Forecasted temperatures e.g., A2 2050s Mississippi and Rideau valley streams Stream temperatures Lakes Maximum surface temperatures of lakes Temperature changes affect fishes differently Fish habitat Now 2050s Cold (<19C) 65% 49% Cool (19-25C) 34% 46% Warm (>25 C) 1% 5% Mississippi provide more coldwater habitat than Rideau watershed in the future Current Brook trout 2020s 2050s Current Walleye Current 2011-2040 Probability of occurrence low high 2020s 1 2041-2070 2050s Smallmouth Bass Current Current 2011-2040 Probability of occurrence low high 2020s 1 2041-2070 2050s Warmwater species moving north Global patterns and across taxa Climate change affects fisheries catch 1970-90s COOLWATER SPECIES e.g., Alewife COLDWATER SPECIES e.g., Lake trout 30.0 LAKE TROUT In situ lake 25.0 Laboratory 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Y (survival) = 68.8 – 5.27 X (temp) N = 9 r = 0.970 P < 0.0001 0.0 FRY SURVIVAL AT EMERGANCE (%) EMERGANCE AT SURVIVAL FRY -5.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 WATER TEMPERATURE AT SPAWNING TIME (°C) Community shifts – less walleye more Centrarchids 1980-2000s Lake Scugog Rice Lake Balsam Lake Buckhorn Lake Robillard and Fox 2006 Smallmouth Bass nesting earlier Spawning day Ice-out day 1962-2014 Bass spawning 2 d/decade Ridgway pers. comm. Raise awareness http://www.climateontario.ca/scripts/MNR_Pub/mnr_video.php Restore or expand shoreline forests and vegetation; improve shading and cooling of streams Keep or restore natural shorelines Restore natural channels Convert dams to release cool waters downstream, dam removal Limit surface and groundwater withdrawals to maintain flow and temperature OMNRF vulnerability assessments Northeast Clay Belt Mississippi-Rideau Valleys Lake Simcoe watershed Peel Region Adjust fishing regulations such as catch limits, slot size limits, season lengths, and protected areas Next steps in climate change research Delineating climate refugia Headwaters Groundwater discharge zones High elevations Deep lakes Climate and other stressors Species invasions Habitat/stressors Thanks! Questions? Acknowledgements OMNRF Climate change office – Jenny Gleeson, Rachel Gagnon, Gary Nielsen, Paul Gray, Josh Cornfield.