Random Selection in Politics
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10 Questions Opinion Polls
Questions you might have on 10opinion polls 1. What is an opinion poll? An opinion poll is a survey carried out to measure views on a certain topic within a specific group of people. For example, the topic may relate to who Kenyans support in the presidential race, in which case, the group of people interviewed will be registered voters. 2. How are interviewees for an opinion poll selected? The group of people interviewed for an opinion poll is called a sample. As the name suggests, a sample is a group of people that represents the total population whose opinion is being surveyed. In a scientific opinion poll, everyone has an equal chance of being interviewed. 3. So how come I have never been interviewed for an opinion poll? You have the same chance of being polled as anyone else living in Kenya. However, chances of this are very small and are estimated at about 1 in 14,000. This is because there are approximately 14 million registered voters in Kenya and, for practical and cost reasons, usually only between 1,000 and 2,000 people are interviewed for each survey carried out. 4. How can such a small group be representative of the entire population? In order to ensure that the sample/survey group is representative of the population, the surveyors must ensure that the group reflects the characteristics of the whole. For instance, to get a general idea of who might win the Kenyan presidential election, only the views of registered voters in Kenya will be surveyed as these are the people who will be able to influence the election. -
Jury Selection in Federal Court
Resource ID: 1-613-5747 Jury Selection in Federal Court JONATHAN S. TAM, DECHERT LLP, WITH PRACTICAL LAW LITIGATION Search the Resource ID numbers in blue on Westlaw for more. This Practice Note addresses selecting a jury Exercising juror challenges (see Exercising Juror Challenges). in a federal civil case, including the applicable Conducting post-trial interviews (see Conducting Post-Trial Interviews). rules on picking a jury, the process and method for jury selection, researching prospective OVERVIEW OF THE JURY SELECTION PROCESS jurors and building juror profiles, conducting Although how a jury is selected varies among courts and judges, the voir dire, exercising peremptory challenges, process in federal court generally occurs in the following order: The court may first mail a preliminary, administrative questionnaire challenges for cause, and Batson challenges, to a randomly selected pool of prospective jurors from registered and interviewing jurors post-trial. voter or licensed driver lists to determine if these individuals appear qualified for federal jury service based on their age and ability to understand English (see Juror Qualifications). The prospect of a jury trial often keeps counsel and their clients The court mails summonses to an initial pool of randomly selected awake at night. Juries can be unpredictable, and jurors may have prospective jurors. The court then randomly selects a narrower preconceived ideas or biases that can escape counsel during the pool of prospective jurors from the initial pool, and calls them for a selection process. Some cases may be won or lost during jury specific case. selection, before opening statements or a single piece of evidence The judge presiding over the case determines whether any jurors is introduced. -
Local Criminal Rules
LOCAL CRIMINAL RULES UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF OKLAHOMA Mark C. McCartt, Clerk of Court Effective Date: September 26, 2016 Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Intro 5 Counties 6 I. SCOPE OF RULES 7 LCrR1. Scope; Application. 7 1.1 Title and Citation. 7 1.2 Effective Date. 7 1.3 Application of Rules. 7 1.4 Electronic filings. 7 1.5 Judicial Waiver. 7 1.6 Forms and General Orders. 7 1.7 United States Magistrate Judges. 7 II. INITIAL APPEARANCE, ARRAIGNMENT, AND PRELIMINARY HEARINGS 7 LCrR5. Initial Appearance Before Magistrate Judge. 7 5.1 Time and Place of Initial Appearance. 7 5.2 Initial Interview of Defendant by U.S. Probation Officers. 8 5.3 Preparation of the Financial Affidavit. 8 5.4 Appearance on a Summons. 8 5.5 Unsealing Case. 8 LCrR6. Grand Jury. 8 6.1 Release of Grand Jury Material to U.S. Probation Officer. 8 LCrR7. Complaint, Indictment, and Information. 8 7.1 Delivery of a Complaint After Filing. 8 7.2 Related Case Notices. 9 7.3 Return of Indictments. 9 7.4 Delivery of an Information After Filing. 10 7.5 Random Assignment of District Judges. 10 LCrR10. Arraignment 10 10.1 Waiver of Appearance. 10 III. PREPARATION FOR TRIAL 10 LCrR11. Plea Agreements. 10 11.1 Providing Plea Agreements to the Court. 10 11.2 Notification of a Change of Plea. 10 11.3 Petition to Enter a Plea of Guilty. 10 11.4 Deferring Acceptance or Rejection of Plea Agreements. 10 LCrR12. Disclosure Statement. -
13 Collecting Statistical Data
13 Collecting Statistical Data 13.1 The Population 13.2 Sampling 13.3 Random Sampling 1.1 - 1 • Polls, studies, surveys and other data collecting tools collect data from a small part of a larger group so that we can learn something about the larger group. • This is a common and important goal of statistics: Learn about a large group by examining data from some of its members. 1.1 - 2 Data collections of observations (such as measurements, genders, survey responses) 1.1 - 3 Statistics is the science of planning studies and experiments, obtaining data, and then organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing conclusions based on the data 1.1 - 4 Population the complete collection of all individuals (scores, people, measurements, and so on) to be studied; the collection is complete in the sense that it includes all of the individuals to be studied 1.1 - 5 Census Collection of data from every member of a population Sample Subcollection of members selected from a population 1.1 - 6 A Survey • The practical alternative to a census is to collect data only from some members of the population and use that data to draw conclusions and make inferences about the entire population. • Statisticians call this approach a survey (or a poll when the data collection is done by asking questions). • The subgroup chosen to provide the data is called the sample, and the act of selecting a sample is called sampling. 1.1 - 7 A Survey • The first important step in a survey is to distinguish the population for which the survey applies (the target population) and the actual subset of the population from which the sample will be drawn, called the sampling frame. -
A Canadian Model of Proportional Representation by Robert S. Ring A
Proportional-first-past-the-post: A Canadian model of Proportional Representation by Robert S. Ring A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Science Memorial University St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador May 2014 ii Abstract For more than a decade a majority of Canadians have consistently supported the idea of proportional representation when asked, yet all attempts at electoral reform thus far have failed. Even though a majority of Canadians support proportional representation, a majority also report they are satisfied with the current electoral system (even indicating support for both in the same survey). The author seeks to reconcile these potentially conflicting desires by designing a uniquely Canadian electoral system that keeps the positive and familiar features of first-past-the- post while creating a proportional election result. The author touches on the theory of representative democracy and its relationship with proportional representation before delving into the mechanics of electoral systems. He surveys some of the major electoral system proposals and options for Canada before finally presenting his made-in-Canada solution that he believes stands a better chance at gaining approval from Canadians than past proposals. iii Acknowledgements First of foremost, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to my brilliant supervisor, Dr. Amanda Bittner, whose continuous guidance, support, and advice over the past few years has been invaluable. I am especially grateful to you for encouraging me to pursue my Master’s and write about my electoral system idea. -
On Stable Rules for Selecting Committees Eric Kamwa
On stable rules for selecting committees Eric Kamwa To cite this version: Eric Kamwa. On stable rules for selecting committees. Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, 2017, 70, pp.36 - 44. 10.1016/j.jmateco.2017.01.008. hal-01631177 HAL Id: hal-01631177 https://hal.univ-antilles.fr/hal-01631177 Submitted on 27 Jun 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. On Stable Rules for Selecting Committees Eric Kamwa Universit´edes Antilles, Facult´ede Droit et d’Economie de la Martinique, Campus de Schoelcher, F-97275 Schoelcher and Laboratoire Cara¨ıb´eende Sciences Sociales, LC2S UMR CNRS 8053 Abstract A voting rule is said to be stable if it always elects a fixed-size subset of candidates such that there is no outside candidate who is majority preferred to any candidate in this set whenever such a set exists. Such a set is called a Weak Condorcet Committee (WCC). Four stable rules have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we propose two new stable rules. Since nothing is known about the properties of the stable rules, we evaluate all the identified stable rules on the basis of some appealing properties of voting rules. -
Legislature by Lot: Envisioning Sortition Within a Bicameral System
PASXXX10.1177/0032329218789886Politics & SocietyGastil and Wright 789886research-article2018 Special Issue Article Politics & Society 2018, Vol. 46(3) 303 –330 Legislature by Lot: Envisioning © The Author(s) 2018 Article reuse guidelines: Sortition within a Bicameral sagepub.com/journals-permissions https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329218789886DOI: 10.1177/0032329218789886 System* journals.sagepub.com/home/pas John Gastil Pennsylvania State University Erik Olin Wright University of Wisconsin–Madison Abstract In this article, we review the intrinsic democratic flaws in electoral representation, lay out a set of principles that should guide the construction of a sortition chamber, and argue for the virtue of a bicameral system that combines sortition and elections. We show how sortition could prove inclusive, give citizens greater control of the political agenda, and make their participation more deliberative and influential. We consider various design challenges, such as the sampling method, legislative training, and deliberative procedures. We explain why pairing sortition with an elected chamber could enhance its virtues while dampening its potential vices. In our conclusion, we identify ideal settings for experimenting with sortition. Keywords bicameral legislatures, deliberation, democratic theory, elections, minipublics, participation, political equality, sortition Corresponding Author: John Gastil, Department of Communication Arts & Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, 232 Sparks Bldg., University Park, PA 16802, USA. Email: [email protected] *This special issue of Politics & Society titled “Legislature by Lot: Transformative Designs for Deliberative Governance” features a preface, an introductory anchor essay and postscript, and six articles that were presented as part of a workshop held at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, September 2017, organized by John Gastil and Erik Olin Wright. -
MRS Guidance on How to Read Opinion Polls
What are opinion polls? MRS guidance on how to read opinion polls June 2016 1 June 2016 www.mrs.org.uk MRS Guidance Note: How to read opinion polls MRS has produced this Guidance Note to help individuals evaluate, understand and interpret Opinion Polls. This guidance is primarily for non-researchers who commission and/or use opinion polls. Researchers can use this guidance to support their understanding of the reporting rules contained within the MRS Code of Conduct. Opinion Polls – The Essential Points What is an Opinion Poll? An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion obtained by questioning a representative sample of individuals selected from a clearly defined target audience or population. For example, it may be a survey of c. 1,000 UK adults aged 16 years and over. When conducted appropriately, opinion polls can add value to the national debate on topics of interest, including voting intentions. Typically, individuals or organisations commission a research organisation to undertake an opinion poll. The results to an opinion poll are either carried out for private use or for publication. What is sampling? Opinion polls are carried out among a sub-set of a given target audience or population and this sub-set is called a sample. Whilst the number included in a sample may differ, opinion poll samples are typically between c. 1,000 and 2,000 participants. When a sample is selected from a given target audience or population, the possibility of a sampling error is introduced. This is because the demographic profile of the sub-sample selected may not be identical to the profile of the target audience / population. -
In Real Jury Deliberations: Successes, Failures, and Next Steps†
Copyright 2012 by Northwestern University School of Law Printed in U.S.A. Northwestern University Law Review Vol. 106, No. 4 Articles THE “KETTLEFUL OF LAW” IN REAL JURY DELIBERATIONS: SUCCESSES, FAILURES, AND NEXT STEPS† Shari Seidman Diamond, Beth Murphy & Mary R. Rose ABSTRACT—According to standard lore, when jurors are doused with “a kettleful of law” at the end of a trial, they either ignore it or are hopelessly confused. We present new evidence from a unique data set: not mock jury experiments or post-trial self-reports, but rather the deliberations of fifty real civil juries. Our intensive analysis of these deliberations presents a picture that contradicts received wisdom about juries and the law. We show that juries in typical civil cases pay substantial attention to the instructions and that although they struggle, the juries develop a reasonable grasp of most of the law they are asked to apply. When instructions fail, they do so primarily in ways that are generally ignored in the debate about juries and the law. That is, the jury deliberations reveal that when communication breaks down, the breakdown stems from more fundamental sources than simply opaque legal language. We identify a few modest pockets of juror resistance to the law and suggest why jury commonsense may in some instances be preferable to announced legal standards. We conclude that it will take more than a “plain English” movement to achieve genuine harmony between laypersons and jury instructions on the law. AUTHORS—Shari Seidman Diamond is the Howard J. Trienens Professor of Law and Professor of Psychology at Northwestern University School of Law and a Research Professor at the American Bar Foundation. -
Two Ideals of Jury Deliberation Jeffrey Abramson [email protected]
University of Chicago Legal Forum Volume 1998 | Issue 1 Article 6 Two Ideals of Jury Deliberation Jeffrey Abramson [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/uclf Recommended Citation Abramson, Jeffrey () "Two Ideals of Jury Deliberation," University of Chicago Legal Forum: Vol. 1998: Iss. 1, Article 6. Available at: http://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/uclf/vol1998/iss1/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Chicago Legal Forum by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Two Ideals of Jury Deliberation Jeffrey Abramsont Several recent works of political theory have put forward a model of democracy that gives deliberation, and popular participation in deliberation, a central place in resolving moral disagreements among citizens.' Rather than shunting moral disputes as irresolvable or leaving their solution to the courts, theorists of democratic deliberation have argued that disputes over fundamental moral values have a place in politics and that citizens motivated by mutual respect toward their opponents or similar constraints can reason publicly to attain justifiable conclusions. As philosophers Amy Gutmann and Dennis Thompson put it, the "core idea" behind deliberative democracy is simple: even "when citizens or their representatives disagree morally, they should continue to reason together to reach mutually acceptable decisions." 2 When asked to give a practical example of such deliberation, deliberative democracy theorists often cite the jury as an institution that embodies the ideal of using collective reasoned discussion to attain a common verdict. -
COVID-19 and the Resumption of Criminal Jury Trials, Part 1
© UNC School of Government March 12, 2021 COVID-19 and the Resumption of Criminal Jury Trials Part 1: Jury Selection Ian A. Mance* Following a long layoff, criminal jury trials have resumed in some places in North Carolina. Pursuant to the Chief Justice’s orders, individual districts have implemented local plans that describe the protocols to be followed, so as to mitigate the risk of transmission of COVID-19 among trial participants. The plans to accomplish this are varied in terms of their level of detail, but all of them make significant modifications to the typical jury trial arrangement. Some of the changes, such as those contemplated for selecting the jury, have constitutional significance, and they will need to be implemented with care so as not to run afoul of defendants’ trial rights. I. Fair Cross Section Concerns about Changes in the Jury Selection Process One of the more difficult issues facing trial courts during the pandemic is the question of how to safely seat a jury while complying with all of the relevant constitutional requirements. Already, a number of courts have been forced to postpone scheduled trials because so few of those issued jury summons reported to court. In some districts, defense lawyers have reported that pandemic venires have been whiter and younger than is typical for their district. At this juncture, it is unclear the extent to which courts may be disproportionately excusing members of certain groups from service in response to pandemic-related concerns, but the issue is a real one and could have significant ramifications. Increasing Courts’ Discretion to Excuse Jury Service. -
Third Party Election Spending and the Charter
ELECTIONSPENDING AND THE CHARTER 429 LIBERTE, EGALITE, ARGENT: THIRD PARTY ELECTION SPENDING AND THE CHARTER 0 ANDREW GEDDIS Both the federal government and the courts have le gouvernementfederal et /es cours de Justice ont brought about changes in election law. The author apportedes modificationsa la loi electorate.l 'auteur reviews these recent changes In the legal landscape revolt le.r recents changementsdans le cadre legal that surroundelection mies. Inparticular third party entourant/es reg/es electorates, tout particulierement electionspending. Thequestions of "whatrules exist" /es depenseselectorates de tiers. la question,a savoir and "who shall make them" are particularly « quelles sont les reg/es qui existent II et « qui les importantto the discussionas this area of law tries to me/Ira en place ,, est particulierement importante reconcile individual interestsin liberty and equality dans celle discussionetant donne que ce domainedu in a democracy.The trio of SupremeC our/ of Canada droit teme de reconcilierles interets individuelset la decisions, Libman v. Quebec (A.G.), Thomson notion de liberte et d'egalite d'une democralie.Les Newspapersv. Canada (A.G.) and Sauve v. Canada trois dkisions de la Cour supreme du Canada. (Chief Electoral Officer), reveal ambiguity In the notamment Libman c. le Quebec (A.G.). Thomson Court's rationalefor limiting Individual liberty at Newspapersc. le Canada (A.G.)et Sauve c. le Canada electiontime. Thisambiguity Is broachedIn the recent (Directeur general des elections), manlfestent Supreme Court of Canada case of Harper v. Canada I 'amblg1111erelativement au raisonnementde la Cour (A.G.)where the Courtaccepted that Parliamentmay de limiter la liberte individuellependant un scrutm.