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Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25Th Congressional Election

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Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25Th Congressional Election Rochester Institute of Technology RIT Scholar Works Theses 12-23-2014 Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25th Congressional Election Heather Knappen Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.rit.edu/theses Recommended Citation Knappen, Heather, "Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25th Congressional Election" (2014). Thesis. Rochester Institute of Technology. Accessed from This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by RIT Scholar Works. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses by an authorized administrator of RIT Scholar Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25th Congressional Election By Heather Knappen A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science Department of Science, Technology and Public Policy College of Liberal Arts Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester, New York December 23, 2014 II Capturing the Effects of Public Opinion Polls on Voter Support in the NY 25th Congressional Election by Heather Knappen Masters of Science Science, Technology and Public Policy Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirements for the College of Liberal Arts/Public Policy Program at ROCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Rochester, New York June 2014 Submitted by: Heather Knappen Signature Date Accepted by: Ron Hira, Thesis Advisor Department of Public Policy, R.I.T Signature Date Franz Foltz, Committee Member Department of Public Policy, R.I.T Signature Date Eric Hittinger, Committee Member Department of Public Policy, R.I.T Signature Date III Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 2 II. Literature Review................................................................................................................. 4 III. Research Question ............................................................................................................... 9 IV. Experimental Design .......................................................................................................... 11 A. Registration-Based Sample (RBS) .................................................................................................... 12 B. Variables............................................................................................................................................ 16 C. Survey Delivery Design .................................................................................................................... 18 V. Research Context ............................................................................................................... 22 VI. Experimental Results ......................................................................................................... 23 A. Final Sample Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................... 23 B. Change in Voter Support Using 5-Point Scale Questions ................................................................. 25 C. Change in Voter Support Using a Binary Question ........................................................................... 29 D. A Qualitative Assessment of Change in Voter Support .................................................................... 31 E. Control Variables .............................................................................................................................. 33 VII. Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ........................................................................ 42 A. Multinomial Logistic Model: Change in Voter Support for Maggie Brooks .................................... 47 B. Multinomial Logistic Model for Louise Slaughter ............................................................................ 53 C. Summary of the Maggie Brooks and Louise Slaughter Models ........................................................ 58 VIII. Validity and Reliability Concerns ...................................................................................... 59 A. Internal Validity ................................................................................................................................ 59 B. External Validity ............................................................................................................................... 62 IX. Public Policy Implications ................................................................................................. 65 X. Sources ............................................................................................................................... 66 Appendix A: Survey Scripts ......................................................................................................... 68 Appendix B: Experimental Treatment (Polling Data) .................................................................. 73 IV Tables Table 1: Summary of Bandwagon, Underdog and Guillotine Effects ........................................................................... 5 Table 2: Control Variables............................................................................................................................................. 8 Table 3: Comparative Demographics for Voters with Listed Phone Number vs. ........................................................ 13 Table 4: Party Registration by Township and NY 25th Congressional District ........................................................... 15 Table 5: Voter Age Comparison from Wave I to Wave II ........................................................................................... 23 Table 6: Voter Gender Comparison from Wave I to Wave II...................................................................................... 24 Table 7: Voter Registration Comparison from Wave I to Wave II .............................................................................. 25 Table 8: Definition of Dependent Variables, Change in Voter Support ...................................................................... 25 Table 9: Change in Voter Support for Maggie Brooks ................................................................................................ 26 Table 10: Change in Voter Support for Louise Slaughter ........................................................................................... 27 Table 11: Average Voter Preference and Change in Preference for Maggie Brook and Louise Slaughter Between the First and Second Telephone Surveys ........................................................................................................................... 28 Table 12: Binary Support Measurement ...................................................................................................................... 30 Table 13: Comparing the Frequency of Change in Voter Support for Question Type ................................................ 31 Table 14: Political Knowledge, Number of Correct Answers versus Exposure to Polling Data ................................. 35 Table 15: Media Usage ................................................................................................................................................ 38 Table 16: Political Engagement ................................................................................................................................... 40 Table 17: Multinomial Logistic Regression Model for Maggie Brooks ...................................................................... 47 Table 18: Diagnostic Test with the IIA Assumption using suest-based Hausman test ................................................ 48 Table 19: Diagnostic Test with the effect of multiple control variables using the Wald test ...................................... 49 Table 20: Predicted Probabilities for Change in Voter Support for Maggie Brooks ................................................... 51 Table 21: Multinomial Logistic Regression Model for Louise Slaughter ................................................................... 53 Table 22: Diagnostic Test with the IIA Assumption using suest-based Hausman test ................................................ 55 Table 23: Diagnostic Test with the effect of multiple control variables using the Wald test ...................................... 55 Table 24: Predicted Probabilities for Change in Voter Support for Louise Slaughter ................................................. 56 Figures Equation 1: Calculation Used to Derive Minimum Sample Size Needed.................................................................... 12 Figure 1: 2012 NY 25th Congressional District Registered Voters by Town ............................................................. 14 Figure 2: Experimental Method with Estimated Sample Size(s) ................................................................................. 16 Figure 3: Experimental Method with Actual Sample Size(s) ...................................................................................... 21 Figure 4: Formal Education v. Exposure to Polling Data ...........................................................................................
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