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Update on the Panama Canal Expansion Program

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UpdateUpdate onon thethe PanamaPanama CanalCanal ExpansionExpansion ProgramProgram RodolfoRodolfo SabongeSabonge Vicepresident,Vicepresident, MarketMarket Research Research and and Analysis Analysis [email protected]@pancanal.com AgendaAgenda •• TrafficTraffic AF2007 AF2007 •• AlternativeAlternative Routes Routes •• ExpansionExpansion Program Program Components, Components, ScopeScope & & TimeTime LineLine •• LocksLocks Contracting Contracting Plan Plan Transits 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 5,000 0 1915 AF 1955 PC/UMS Tonnage of Commercial Transits ofCommercial PC/UMS Tonnage AF 1955 1917 4,832 1919 1921 1923 Transits vs. PC/UMSTonnage vs. Transits 1925 PC/UMSTonnage vs. Transits 1927 1929 AF 1975 AF 1975 1931 9,931 1933 1935 1937 1939 –FY1915 FY2007 FY1915 –FY1915 FY2007 1941 1943 18,940 AF 1995 1945 AF 1995 1947 1949 1951 Fiscal Year 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 AF 2007 23,591 1963 AF 2007 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 PC/UMS 1987 Transits 1989 14,721 1991 1993 312.2 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 PC/UMS Tonnage in Millions PrincipalPrincipal RoutesRoutes -- FY FY 20072007 EastEast CoastCoast USUS AsiaAsia 82.682.6 MLTMLT 39.6%39.6% PRODUCTS MLT % Containers 26.5 32.2 Grains 23.0 27.9 PrincipalPrincipal RoutesRoutes -- FY FY 20072007 West Coast South America East Coast US 20.520.5 MLTMLT 9.8%9.8% PRODUCTS MLT % Petroleum and prod 6.1 29.9 Dry Bulks 3.8 18.6 PrincipalPrincipal RoutesRoutes -- FY FY 20072007 WestWest CoastCoast SouthSouth AmericaAmerica EuropeEurope 15.215.2 MLTMLT 7.3%7.3% PRODUCTS MLT % Containers 5.0 32.6 Refrigerated fruit 3.4 22.3 PrincipalPrincipal CommoditiesCommodities thatthat TransitTransit thethe PanamaPanama CanalCanal FiscalFiscal YearYear 20072007 ContainerizedContainerized CargoCargo 58.6 GrainsGrains 33.0 PetroleumPetroleum andand ProductsProducts 32.1 MetalsMetals andand OresOres 14.7 ChemicalsChemicals andand PetrochemicalsPetrochemicals 13.4 GeneralGeneral CargoCargo 13.0 Iron/SteelIron/Steel ManufacturedManufactured ProductsProducts 7.2 CoalCoal 6.2 NitratesNitrates andand PhosphatesPhosphates 5.7 WoodWood andand ProductsProducts 5.1 Canned/RefrigeratedCanned/Refrigerated ProductsProducts 5.1 MachineryMachinery andand EquipmentEquipment 4.8 MineralsMinerals 4.1 OtherOther AgriculturalAgricultural ProductsProducts 2.3 Animal/VegetableAnimal/Vegetable OilsOils andand FatsFats 2.1 MiscellaneousMiscellaneous DangerousDangerous GoodsGoods 0.5 0 10203040506070 LongLong TonsTons inin millionsmillions PC/UMSPC/UMS byby MarketMarket SegmentSegment (in(in millionsmillions -- FY FY 1995-2007)1995-2007) 160 ContainershipsContainerships 150 DryDry BulkBulk 140 LiquidLiquid BulkBulk 130 GeneralGeneral CargoCargo 120 ReefersReefers 110 PassengersPassengers 100 VehicleVehicle CarriersCarriers 90 OthersOthers 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Growth of container traffic through the Panama Canal (1997 - 2007) 4000 3500 Transits (1,302 - 3,622) 3000 2500 2000 1500 Transits 1000 500 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Based on the capacity of transiting vessels – Source: CompairData Growth of container traffic through the Panama Canal (1997 - 2007) 4000 16 3500 14 Transits (1,302 - 3,622) 3000 12 Capacity TEU (2.5M-13.8M) 2500 10 2000 8 1500 6 Transits Millions of TEUs of Millions 1000 4 500 2 0 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Based on the capacity of transiting vessels – Source: CompairData InternationalInternational PortsPorts ConnectedConnected throughthrough thethe PanamaPanama CanalCanal Rotterdam Bremerhaven Rotterdam Tilbury Felixstowe Osaka Felixstowe Hamburg Nagoya Dunkerque Halifax Thamesport Shanghai Zeebrugge Kwangyang Seattle NJ/NY Boston Qingdao Wilmington Le Havre Pusan Tokyo Newport News Antwerp Keelung Shimizu Oakland Charleston Baltimore Port Said Yantian Yokohama Los Angeles ..Miami Savannah Hong Kong Kobe Long Beach New Orleans Everglades Hong Kong Long Beach Marseilles Colombo Colon Manzanillo (Mx) VeracruzKingston Chabang Hakata Manzanillo La Spezia Kaohsiung Cartagena Puerto Limón Maracaibo Balboa La Guaira Tanjung Priok Balboa Guanta Buenaventura Puerto Cabello Doniambo Manta Singapore Guayaquil Callao Santos Tahiti Arica IquiqueIquique Paranagua Brisbane Coquimbo ItajaiItajai Sydney Antofagasta Valparaíso San Antonio Auckland San Vicente Transit the Canal Melbourne Feeder services that don´t transit the Canal Source:Source: ACPACP andand ComPairData,ComPairData, 20062006 RegionalRegional ConnectivityConnectivity ServiciosServicios de de LíneaLínea de deFREEPORT lala RegiónRegión del del CaribeCaribe JulioJulio 20072007 LA HABANA SANTIAGO SAN JUAN HAINA CAUCEDO ATM KINGSTON PONCE BARRIOS SANTO TOMAS DE CASTILLA CORTES CASTILLA JARRY/GUADALOUPE DOMINICA GUATEMALA HONDURAS CASTRIES/ST. LUCIA EL SALVADOR CABEZAS BRIDGETOWN/BARBADOS QUETZAL ACAJUTLA CUTUCO NICARAGUA WILLEMSTAD ( LA UNION) CURACAO PORT OF SPAIN CORINTO ORANJESTAD SANDINO ARUBA SPR SANTA MARTA POINT LISAS MARACAIBO LIMON- MOIN SPR BARRANQUILLA COSTA RICA MIT CCT PUERTO CABELLO LA GUAIRA CRISTOBAL SPR CARTAGENA CALDERA BALBOA PANAMA Fuente: Compair Data, Julio 2007 SPR BUENAVENTURA ManzanilloManzanillo InternationalInternational TerminalTerminal (MIT)(MIT) ColonColon ContainerContainer TerminalTerminal PanamaPanama Ports Ports CompanyCompany – – CristobalCristobal PanamaPanama Ports Ports Company Company - - Balboa Balboa PortPort Development Development inin PanamaPanama 1996:1996: 235235 KTEUsKTEUs 2007:2007: +3.2+3.2 MTEUsMTEUs Panamax Cranes PPX Total PPC-BCZ 7 8 15 PPC-CRI 3 3 6 CCT 4 6 10 MIT 2 14 16 16 31 47 TWO OCEANS IN A SAME DAY CruiseCruise tourism tourism evolution evolution in in PanamaPanama ColónColón 20002000 PortPort •• InauguratedInaugurated in in OctoberOctober 2000 2000 •• MainMain cruise cruise lines: lines: HollandHolland America,America, CarnivalCarnival andand CelebrityCelebrity •• TourTour operationoperation Aventuras Aventuras 2000:2000: tourstours offeredoffered via via train train andand buses buses toto Portobelo Portobelo & & SanSan SunSun PrincessPrincess at at Colón Colón 20002000 LorenzoLorenzo FortFort •• WilWil be be homeporthomeport for for Royal Royal CaribbeanCaribbean beginning beginning DecemberDecember 2008 2008 TollToll RevenueRevenue byby MarketMarket segmentssegments Segments 2006 2007 Containers $503M 49% $682M 56% Dry bulk $170M 17% $163M 13% Car Carriers $100M 10% $106M 9% Liquid bulk $91M 9% $107M 9% Others $59M 6% $61M 5% Refrigerated $53M 5% $57M 5% Passenger $26M 3% $26M 2% ships General $25M 2% $25 2% Cargo AgendaAgenda •• TrafficTraffic AF2007 AF2007 •• AlternativeAlternative Routes Routes THETHE SUEZSUEZ ALTERNATIVEALTERNATIVE CargoCargo TonTon throughthrough SuezSuez (Destination)(Destination) 700 600 500 M. Ton 400 N.W. Europe ( 39.1 % ) 300 200 Med. Sea ( 41.5 % ) 100 EC America ( 10.1 % ) Black Sea ( 8.2 % 0 ) 2003 2004 2005 2006 N.W. Europe 188 208 234 246 Med. Sea 176 209 219 261 EC America 40 52 57 63 Black Sea 44 44 53 52 Others 7887 SuezSuez CanalCanal AuthorityAuthority CargoCargo TonTon throughthrough SuezSuez (Origin)(Origin) 700 600 S. Asia ( 10.9 % ) 500 Australia ( 5.6 % ) M. Ton 400 Red Sea ( 12.2 % ) 300 A. Gulf ( 19.5 % ) 200 100 S.E. Asia ( 49 % ) 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Others 1.4 2.3 2.1 18.2 Australia 35.1 42.5 34.1 34.9 South Asia 47 51 62.9 68.5 Red Sea 75.7 84.3 88.8 76.6 Arabian Gulf 81.3 97.5 112.6 122.6 S.E.Asia 217.5 243.9 270.7 307.8 SuezSuez CanalCanal AuthorityAuthority SCSC ContainerContainer TrafficTraffic toto ECEC AmericaAmerica (by(by Origin)Origin) 10000 8000 1000 Ton A. Gulf ( 26 % ) 6000 S. Asia ( 32 % ) 4000 Red Sea ( 3 % ) 2000 S.E. Asia & Far East ( 40 % ) Others 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Arabian Gulf 754 1025 2434 2394 S. Asia 2268 2941 2463 2971 Red Sea 184 315 308 253 S. E. Asia & F. E. 1877 1810 2533 3760 Others 325 164 108 0 SuezSuez CanalCanal AuthorityAuthority SCSC ContainerContainer MovementMovement byby RouteRoute (( 20032003 -2007)-2007) ( 1000 Loaded TEU ) Route 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 NWE - Far East 12 793 15 537 17 483 19 343 21 502 NWE - South Asia 1 263 1 061 957 1 445 1 550 ECNA - South Asia 470 686 762 807 936 ECNA - South East Asia 547 315 339 536 850 NWE – Australasia 371 420 394 371 390 NWE - Middle East 137 350 381 200 210 NWE - East Africa 246 143 134 102 96 ECSA - Middle East 24 23 56 74 76 Total 15 851 18 535 20 506 22 878 25 610 SuezSuez CanalCanal AuthorityAuthority Panama-Panama- Suez Suez RouteRoute CostCost ComparisonComparison $8,000,000$8,000,000 $7,000,000$7,000,000 $6,000,000$6,000,000 $5,000,000$5,000,000 $4,000,000$4,000,000 $3,000,000$3,000,000 $2,000,000$2,000,000 $1,000,000$1,000,000 $0$0 PanamaPanama SuezSuez PanamaPanama SuezSuez PanamaPanama SuezSuez PanamaPanama SuezSuez PanamaPanama SuezSuez 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 Ship Provision Costs Fuel Costs - Canal Fuel Costs - Sea Canal Fees Fuel Costs - Ports Port Fees Source: Estimates based on ACP analysis of different sources StrategicStrategic DemandDemand CentersCenters Population Growth 2005 - 2030 Cascadia +38% Pop: 7,412,248 Great Lakes Horseshoe +10% Pop: 40,082,228 Atlantic Seaboard +12% Pop: 50,427,921 Norcal +35% Pop: 12,024,173 Southland +35% I-35 Corridor +40% Pop: 22,173,291 Pop: 15,315,317 I-85 Corridor +35% Pop: 19,318,992 Valley of the Sun +81% Pop: 4,486,206 Southern Florida +52% Gulf Coast Belt +31% Pop: 13,708,165 Pop: 12,064,600 Sources: Population, employment, and real estate growth forecasts
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