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Aviation Security HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE CENTER CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occa- sional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. O CC A S I O N A L PAPER HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE CENTER Aviation Security After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review Brian Michael Jenkins RAND RESEarCH arEAS he recovery earlier this year of a new, CHILDREN AND FAMILIES Overview EDUCATION AND THE ARTS improved bomb designed to avoid detec- ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT tion by airport security underscores ter- Aviation security is costly, controversial, and HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE rorists’ continuing determination to bring INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION contentious; no other security measures directly down commercial airliners. Like the bomb carried by INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS T affect such a large portion of the country’s LAW AND BUSINESS Umar Abdulmutallab in his unsuccessful attempt to population. Because of the nature of the threat, NATIONAL SECURITY sabotage an airliner in 2009, the new device designed POPULATION AND AGING aviation security is the most intrusive form of by al Qaeda’s bomb-maker was intended to be con- PUBLIC SAFETY security, pushing hard on the frontier of civil SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY cealed in the saboteur’s underwear. The device was liberties. And the threat is real: terrorists remain TERRORISM AND obtained by an intelligence operative who managed to HOMELAND SECURITY obsessed with attacking airplanes. persuade his al Qaeda handlers that he was ready to carry out that suicide mission. While it is necessary to At the same time, passenger loads are increas- investigate possible ways to counter this latest terror- ing, while security budgets are likely to decline. ist innovation, a more fundamental review of how we Performance suffers. Meanwhile, public toler- secure the airplanes that 2 million passengers board ance and cooperation are beginning to fray. every day in the United States is imperative. But the Transportation Security Administration Evolving terrorist tactics and technology pose new is often blamed for things beyond its control. threats, as growing passenger loads and added security And post-catastrophe reviews can push us in procedures are already straining airport screeners. the wrong direction, usually resulting in new And terrorists are not the only problem faced by the security measures rather than a reexamination Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Air- of strategy. line passengers have become increasingly hostile to the After 40 years of focus on tactical measures, This product is part of the very measures deployed to protect them, while TSA is RAND Corporation occasional it is time for a sweeping review of aviation paper series. RAND occasional under continuous assault in Congress. security. Instead of forming the usual federal papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy commission to undertake this task, several issue, a discussion of new How Did We Get Where We Are? research methodologies, non-government research institutions could be essays, a paper presented at In terms of the total volume of terrorist violence in selected to independently design an optimal a conference, a conference the world and the casualties it causes, attacks on avia- summary, or a summary of aviation security system, beginning not with the work in progress. All RAND tion do not loom large. Between 9/11 and the end of four decades of accumulated security measures occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure 2011, there were 75 terrorist attacks on airliners and currently in place but with a clean slate. The that they meet high standards for airports worldwide, resulting in 157 deaths. Compare research quality and objectivity. competing models would be reviewed and the that with nearly 2,000 terrorist attacks on trains and best ideas or combination of ideas would be put © RAND 2012 buses, resulting in approximately 4,000 fatalities dur- forward. Even if the results turn out to resemble 1 ing the same period. what is already in place, at least the process In view of this, why is so much of our effort and offers some comfort that we are pretty close to our precious resources focused on protecting airplanes getting it right. 1 www.rand.org These statistics were obtained from the Mineta Transportation Institute's database of attacks on transportation targets. – 2 – and airports? From the earliest days of contemporary although the term is no longer used, America still international terrorism in the late 1960s, terrorists considers itself “at war” with terrorism, with overt have made commercial aviation a theater of combat, and covert military operations ongoing in a number mainly through hijackings. While governments were of countries. Military action in response to terrorism trying to build international consensus on outlawing is today a well-carved path. airline hijacking and sabotage as acceptable modes of Aviation security remains one of the most impor- Aviation security conflict, they were, at the same time, obliged to pro- tant components of our overall defense against ter- remains one of the tect their own airlines. And they also had to protect rorism. It is costly, controversial, and contentious. It most important themselves. dramatically demonstrates the basic tenet of terror- components of our Aviation security was never viewed solely as a ism—that small groups with a limited capacity for overall defense problem of passenger safety. Far more people die in power can achieve disproportionate effects by using against terrorism. ordinary traffic accidents. Hijackings and incidents terrorist tactics. The threat of one terrorist bomber of airline sabotage are spectacular events that put obliges the nation to divert vast sums to airport passengers’ lives in the balance for hours, days, even security. Terrorists need to recruit only one bomber; weeks, or cause airplanes to explode in the air. They the United States has to protect 450 commercial have created dangerous political crises. Hijackings airports, with tens of thousands of flights daily. Mil- have forced governments to negotiate for the lives of lions of passengers are inconvenienced, some possibly hostages, to stand by while hostages were murdered, humiliated. or to attempt long-shot rescues—all bad options. That raises strategic, even philosophical questions. Sabotage of aircraft represented a significant esca- If security is such a bad exchange, should the United lation in terrorist violence, matching the most mas- States instead track down and kill terrorist leaders sive truck bombings. It led to popular demands for and bomb-makers—itself a controversial mission? retribution, including sanctions, military retaliation, Must the United States go further and attempt large- acts of war—decisions governments did not want to scale military missions to destroy terrorist organiza- be forced to make. tions and stabilize the failing states in which they Imagine the impact on the country if the shoe reside? In the wake of 9/11, the United States invaded bomber had brought down a commercial airliner just Afghanistan. Al Qaeda’s bomb-maker currently three months after 9/11 or the consequences if the resides in Yemen. Must American troops now follow? underwear bomber had succeeded in bringing down Aviation security is also important because it is a plane in 2009. Nor is such a disaster a far-fetched there, as nowhere else, that security measures directly possibility today. affect such a large portion of the country’s popula- Al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki’s alleged tion. Moreover, because of the nature of the threat, involvement in terrorist operations, including the aviation security is the most intrusive form of secu- 2009 airline sabotage attempt, made him the target rity, pushing hard on the frontier of civil liberties. of an American drone
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