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CSPV Modification Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells, Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled Into Other Products: Advice on the Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the Safeguard Measure Investigation No. TA-201-075 (Modification) Publication 5032 March 2020 U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 U.S. International Trade Commission COMMISSIONERS David S. Johanson, Chairman Rhonda K. Schmidtlein Jason E. Kearns Randolph J. Stayin Amy A. Karpel Catherine DeFilippo Director of Operations Jonathan Coleman Director of Industries Project Leader Deputy Project Leader Dylan Carlson Lauren Gamache Primary Authors Andrew David, Samantha Schreiber, and David Riker Investigative Support Andrew Knipe, Mary Messer, Lita David-Harris, and Brennan Taylor Office of the General Counsel Administrative Support William Gearhart Justin Holbein Content Review Editorial Review Daniel Matthews and Tana von Kessler Judy Edelhoff and Peg Hausman Statistical Review Additional Review Ann-Marie Carton, Zachary Coughlin, Saad Ahmad Russell Duncan, and Maureen Letostak and Janis Summers Under the Direction of John Fry, Associate Director of Industries Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 www.usitc.gov Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells, Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled Into Other Products: Advice on the Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the Safeguard Measure Investigation No. TA-201-075 (Modification) Publication 5032 March 2020 CONTENTS Page ................................................................................................ iii .......................................................................................................... ES-1 The Safeguard Measure ......................................................................................................... ES-1 U.S. CSPV Industry and Market Trends .................................................................................. ES-2 Probable Economic Effects of Certain Modifications to the Safeguard Measure ................. ES-3 Introduction and Overview ........................................................................................ I-1 Objectives of the Report ........................................................................................................... I-1 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................... I-2 The Safeguard Investigation ...................................................................................................... I-2 Scope of the Safeguard Measure .............................................................................................. I-3 Tariff-rate Quota under the Safeguard Measure .................................................................. I-6 Import Duties under the Safeguard Measure ....................................................................... I-6 CSPV Monitoring Summary ....................................................................................................... I-7 Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Investigations and Tariff Treatment ........................... I-8 Part II: Overview of U.S. CSPV Industry and Market ............................................................ II-1 U.S. CSPV Cell Industry ............................................................................................................. II-2 Panasonic .............................................................................................................................. II-2 Suniva ................................................................................................................................... II-3 Other U.S. Manufacturing .................................................................................................... II-4 U.S. CSPV Module Industry ...................................................................................................... II-4 U.S. Imports .............................................................................................................................. II-7 U.S. CSPV Cell Imports .......................................................................................................... II-7 U.S. CSPV Module Imports ................................................................................................... II-8 Apparent U.S. Consumption of CSPV Modules ...................................................................... II-12 Apparent U.S. Consumption, 2016–22 ............................................................................... II-12 Apparent U.S. Consumption of Bifacial Modules ............................................................... II-15 i CONTENTS Page Part III: Probable Economic Effect of Modification ............................................................. III-1 Qualitative Assessment of the Impact of TRQ Expansion on the U.S. CSPV Industry............. III-2 Impact on U.S. CSPV Module Producers ............................................................................. III-2 Impact on U.S. CSPV Cell Producers .................................................................................. III-12 Estimated Quantitative Effects of the TRQ Expansion .......................................................... III-24 Modification Model Inputs ................................................................................................ III-25 Isolating the Effects of the Potential Safeguard Modification .......................................... III-26 Summary of Economic Effects ........................................................................................... III-26 Model Estimates ................................................................................................................ III-27 Appendixes A. Request Letter ................................................................................................................. A-1 B. Federal Register Notice ................................................................................................... B-1 C. Summary of the Views of Interested Parties .................................................................. C-1 D. Inputs for Probable Economic Effects Analysis ............................................................... D-1 E. Modeling Appendix ......................................................................................................... E-1 F. Bibliography .................................................................................................................... F-1 Note.—Information that would reveal confidential operations of individual concerns may not be published. Such information is identified by brackets in confidential reports and is deleted and replaced with asterisks (***) in public reports. ii Abbreviations and Acronyms Abbreviation or Acronym Definition AC alternating current a-Si amorphous silicon AUV average unit value BOS balance of system CBI confidential business information CdTe cadmium telluride CI(G)S copper indium (gallium) (di)selenide CIT U.S. Court of International Trade Commerce U.S. Department of Commerce Commission U.S. International Trade Commission CSPV crystalline silicon photovoltaic CSPV 1 Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells and Modules from China, Inv. Nos. 701-TA-481 and 731-TA- 1190 (Final), 2012 CSPV 2 Certain Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Products from China and Taiwan, Inv. Nos. 701-TA-511 and 731-TA-1246-1247 (Final), 2015 CSPV Modification Advice Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells, Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled into Other Products: Advice on the Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the Safeguard Measure, Inv. No. TA-201-075 (Modification), 2020 CSPV Monitoring Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells, Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled into Other Products: Monitoring Developments in the Domestic Industry, Inv. No. TA-201-075 (Monitoring), 2020 CSPV Safeguard Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells, Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled into Other Products, Inv. No. TA-201-075, 2017 Customs U.S. Customs and Border Protection DC direct current DOE U.S. Department of Energy EIA U.S. Energy Information Agency EVA ethylene-vinyl acetate GW gigawatt HIT heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States IRS U.S. Internal Revenue Service ITC investment tax credit ITRPV International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic kW kilowatt mono monocrystalline MW megawatt NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory PERC passivated emitter and rear contact p-n positive-negative junction iii Abbreviation or Acronym Definition PRWs production and related workers PV photovoltaic R&D research and development SEIA Solar Energy Industries Association Trade Act Trade Act of 1974 TRQ tariff-rate quota USITC U.S. International Trade Commission USTR U.S. Trade Representative W watt WoodMac Wood Mackenzie WTO World Trade Organization iv Executive Summary This report contains the advice of the U.S. International Trade Commission (Commission or USITC) regarding the probable economic effect on the domestic crystalline silicon photovoltaic (CSPV) cell and module manufacturing industry of modifying the safeguard measure on CSPV products. Specifically, the Commission’s advice pertains to the effect of increasing the level of
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