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H2 2020: Solar Industry Update

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H2 2020: Solar Industry Update H2 2020 Solar Industry Update David Feldman Robert Margolis April 6, 2021 NREL/PR-7A40-79758 Executive Summary Global Solar Deployment • Though 2020 U.S. solar and wind installations collectively achieved record levels, EIA expects 2021 to far exceed these levels, with 21 GW of PV and • Eight of the leading PV markets collectively installed 93 GWAC of PV in 2020, AC 16 GW of wind. up from 69 GWAC in 2019. AC – The three leading markets were China (48 GWAC), the United States (15 • The United States installed approximately 3.5 GWh, 1.5 GWAC of energy GWAC), and Vietnam (8 GWAC). storage onto the electric grid in 2020, up 214% y/y. U.S. PV Deployment PV System and Component Pricing • In 2020, PV represented approximately 40% of new U.S. electric generation • Mono c-Si PV module prices rose 6% in Q1 2021, with mono-crystalline PV capacity, compared to 4% in 2010. modules being slightly higher than they were a year ago ($0.22/W). – Over 30 GWAC of renewable energy and storage capacity was installed in the United States in 2020. • Polysilicon was up 33% in Q1 2021 and 76% y/y to $15.6/kg at the end of • Solar represented only 6.6% of net summer capacity and 3.3% of annual March. generation in 2020. • In Q4 2020, U.S. mono c-Si module prices fell, dropping to their lowest – However, 11 states generated more than 5% of their electricity from recorded level, but they were still trading at a 55% premium over global ASP. solar, with California leading the way at 22.7%. Global Manufacturing • The United States installed 14.9 GW (19.2 GW ) of PV in 2020, of which AC DC • In 2020, the United States produced a record 4.4 GW of PV modules, up 24% 10.4 GW were utility-scale PV, 3.0 GW were residential PV, and 1.5 GW AC AC AC y/y, due mostly to a doubling of production capacity by First Solar. were commercial and industrial PV. • The United States stopped producing PV cells in Q4 2020, having produced • At the end of 2020, there was 73.8 GWAC (95.5 GWDC) of cumulative PV 198 MW for the year. installations, of which 46.1 GW were utility-scale PV, 17.2 GW were AC AC • PV InfoLink reported that the top ten module manufacturers shipped 114 GW residential PV, and 10.5 GW were commercial and industrial PV. AC in 2020—or 81.5% of total shipments. A list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation. NREL | 2 Agenda 1 Global Solar Deployment 2 U.S. PV Deployment 3 PV System Pricing 4 Global Manufacturing 5 Component Pricing 6 Market Activity Labor Practices in Xinjiang NREL | 3 1 Global Solar Deployment • Eight of the leading PV markets collectively installed 93 GWAC of PV in 2020, up from 69 GWAC in 2019. 2 U.S. PV Deployment – The three leading markets were China (48 GWAC), the United States (15 GWAC), and Vietnam (8 GWAC). 3 PV System Pricing • These leading eight markets represent approximately 4 Global Manufacturing three-quarters of global cumulative PV installations, which was approximately three-quarters of a terawatt at 5 Component Pricing the end of 2020. 6 Market Activity Labor Practices in Xinjiang NREL | 4 • In 2020, utility-scale projects represented 81% of Spanish 2020 Global PV Deployment: demand, 78% of Indian demand, 73% of U.S. demand, 36% Key Markets Update of Australian demand, and 15% of Vietnamese demand. – In 2019, most Vietnamese PV installs were ground- mounted. • The eight leading markets collectively installed 93 GWAC of PV in 2020, up from 69 GWAC in 2019. • The eight leading markets represent approximately three- • While the pandemic suppressed 2020 deployment, it affected countries quarters of global cumulative PV installations, which was differently, with many countries experiencing significant growth. approximately three-quarters of a terawatt at the end of – India installed 56% less PV in 2020 than in 2019, whereas China 2020. installed 60% more. Annual Capacity Additions (GWAC) Cumulative PV Deployment, 2020 (~723 GWAC) 60 48 50 2019 2020 39 Other 40 China, 253 30 30 India, 39 20 15 Spain, 12 9 8 U.S., 74 7 Australia, 20 10 6 5 4 6 4 5 4 4 3.3 3.2 Germany, 54 Vietnam, 13 0 Japan, 60 China U.S. Vietnam Japan GermanyAustralia Spain India Other Sources: Wood Mackenzie/SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2020 Year-in-Review; IEA World Energy Outlook; Mercom (08/03/20, 01/25/21, 03/01/21); NREL | 5 https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses; PV Magazine (01/27/20, 01/15/21, 02/15/21); PVTech (01/06/21); IEEFA (01/12/21); Taiyang News; Japan FiT. Chinese Generation Capacity Source: China Electric Council, accessed (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. 2021). Additions by Source • In 2020, solar contributed 25% to new generation capacity in China • As China grows its electricity infrastructure, it has (48.2 GWAC) and 11% of cumulative capacity (252 GWAC). rapidly incorporated non-carbon sources of electricity – 2020 was the fourth-straight year that wind and solar contributed more generation. than half of all new electric generation capacity in China (26%), with a – Since 2010, China has more than doubled its installed electric record amount of wind deployment. generation capacity, and at the same time, it reduced the – Coal and gas deployment has remained relatively flat over the past 11 percentage of total coal and gas capacity from 74% to 57%. years as renewables have grown. – From 2010 to 2020, new non-carbon generation capacity as a – Chinese annual electric generation capacity additions been on average 4–6 percentage of total new capacity increased from 37% to 70%. times greater than U.S. additions for the past 10 years. Cumulative Capacity (GWAC) Annual Capacity Additions (GWAC) 250 2,500 2,200 1,900 2,011 200 2,000 252 Solar 1,777 204 1,652 174 Solar 142 48 1,521 130 Wind 1,379 77 Wind 150 125 125 123 1,500 43 111 121 15 111 Hydro 1,147 1,258 28 Hydro 11 1,063 92 96 84 34 966 44 Other 100 53 30 1,000 Other Nuclear Nuclear 50 Coal and Gas 500 Coal and Gas 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREL | 6 Chinese Market Update • China installed 48.2 GWAC of PV in 2020: 32.7 GWAC were large-scale and 15.5 GWAC were distributed PV projects, bringing cumulative Chinese PV capacity to 252 GWAC. – December installations alone were 22.3 GWAC, as developers rushed to meet an end-of-year deadline. • China is gradually moving away from subsidizing PV installations; however, there is still uncertainty around this and differences by province, as policymakers want to minimize the market impact. • In September 2020, China announced plans to become carbon neutral by 2060, though without a road map. Further announcements have been made to bolster that possibility. – China’s National Energy Administration released a draft plan in February to boost non-hydro renewable electricity to 25.9% of overall power consumption generation by 2030, and to 12.7% by 2021 (an increase of 1.5%). One energy advisory company believes this will increase demand to 60–75 GW in 2021 and will increase cumulative capacity of wind and solar to 1.6 TW–1.7 TW by 2030 (from 0.5 TW in 2020). This is higher than President Xi’s pledge to build 1.2 TW of solar and wind by 2030. – The Chinese Electric Council also urged the government to cap electricity generation from coal and transition these plants to backup power. NREL | 7 Sources: BloombergNEF (1Q 2021 Global PV Market Outlook); Mercom India (09/25/20, 02/26/21); Reuter (02/02/21) • Virtually all of Vietnam’s 16 GWDC (13 GWAC) of capacity Vietnamese Market Update has been installed in the past two years with 6.9 GWDC of rooftop facilities in December 2020 alone, due to an expiring feed-in-tariff deadline. • For the second year in a row, solar demand in Vietnam was – The government had targeted 1 GW of rooftop PV stronger than expected, making it the third-largest market in installations by 2025. 2020. • Vietnam switched from installing predominantly utility- Annual Capacity Additions (GWDC) scale projects in 2019, to industrial rooftop installations 12 in 2020, demonstrating the importance of a change in Utility-scale FiT policies. 10 Rooftop (predominantly large-scale) 8 • Future rooftop and utility-scale PV projects must wait for the government to finalize new programs, likely 6 with lower rates. 4 – Future rooftop program may incentivize self- consumption due to concerns over grid constraints. 2 – Utility-scale projects will transition to a competitive 0 bidding system in government’s attempt to lower Pre 2018 2018 2019 2020 pricing. Utility-scale projects are at a standstill until the auction mechanism is finalized. NREL | 8 Sources: BloombergNEF (1Q 2021 Global PV Market Outlook); PV Magazine (01/15/21); PVTech (01/06/21). • In October 2020, Japan’s prime minister made a pledge for Japanese Market Update the country to be carbon neutral by 2050. – Meeting this goal would require significantly more investments in renewable energy, which the prime minister acknowledged. Some of the Japan’s leading • Japan’s annual installations grew 17% in 2020 to 8.2 GWDC (6.3 GWAC). companies recently wrote to the government asking it – BloombergNEF stated that the increase in demand is partially due to to increase its 2030 renewable energy targets from large-scale legacy projects that were approved for a FiT in 2012–2014 22%–24% of total energy generation to 40%–50%.
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