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BG's Wake up Call

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BG's Wake up Call Please find our Research on Bloomberg BRYG <GO>) 4th October 2013 BG’s Wake Up Call Last Daily chg Chg YTD LUXOTTICA BUY, Fair Value EUR44 (+14%) close (%) (%) Indices The Investors Day next week could harbour some catalysts for the stock Dow Jones 14996.48 -0.90% +14.44% S&P 500 1678.66 -0.90% +17.70% Next week on October 8 & 9 Luxottica will host an Investors Day in its US Retail Nasdaq 3774.34 -1.07% +25.00% headquarters which are located in Mason (suburb of Cincinnati). For the first time since Nikkei 14024.31 -0.94% +36.19% the acquisition of Oakley in 2007, Luxottica will go further into its strategy for North Stoxx 600 309.554 -0.40% +10.68% America which accounts for 58% of group’s sales, with a particular focus on US Retail. As CAC 40 4127.98 -0.73% +13.37% highlighted in our Optics Sector Report in May (“US: an emerging market?”), the US Oil /Gold optics market harbours significant growth potential despite already being the leading Crude WTI 103.06 -0.92% +12.17% Gold (once) 1315.18 -0.24% -20.89% market for Luxottica or Essilor (~40% of sales). Currencies/Rates SOFTWARE AG BUY, Fair Value EUR30 (+13%) EUR/USD 1.36235 +0.24% +3.33% EUR/CHF 1.22615 +0.09% +1.60% Feedback from company contact: positive catalysts are still there German 10 years 1.822 +0.91% +40.22% We reiterate our Buy rating and our DCF-derived fair value of EUR30 following a contact French 10 years 2.361 +1.10% +18.62% with the company last week. A change in our fx assumptions and higher opex due to an Euribor 0.224 -0.44% +19.79% aggressive sales recruitment activity and recent acquisitions have a minor negative Economic releases : impact to our EBIT margin assumptions in our view. Positive catalysts on Software AG Date remain the same: 1). Positive momentum in Business Process Management; 2). Return to 4th-Oct US - ALL Economic Data Delayed due to Govt. organic growth foreseeable from Q4 13; 3). Projected margin trends priced in; 4). Current Shutdown valuation that does not reflect Software AG’s repositioning. BUSINESS SERVICES Upcoming BG events : Date Top Picks Q4 2013: Sodexo retained, Bureau Veritas exited 4th-Oct Sanofi/Genzyme (BG Paris Lunch with CEO) LOOKING BACK ON Q3 2013 10th-Oct Club conso Déjeuner avec le DG du pôle horloger For Q4 2013, we retain Sodexo . des Galeries Lafayette Since our upgrade at the end of May 2013, the stock performance has been a bit 15th-Oct CNP (BG Roadshow Luxembourg 1H results with IR) disappointing, i.e. +0.4% relative to the DJ Stoxx, reflecting sluggish results expected for FY st 31st-Oct Imerys (BG Paris Roadshow with CEO and CFO) 2012/13 ending 31 August. Nevertheless, actions implemented in H1 and reinforced in H2 6th-Nov Vinci (BG Paris Lunch with Ch. Welton) as well as the group’s fundamentals should help it to restore a more robust pace of growth, bearing in mind that the group’s target is to reach a 6.3% EBIT margin by the end of FY2014/15 compared to 5.1% anticipated for 2012/13, down 18bps. Recent reports : Staffing Downgraded Date After strong Q3 performances, we have decided to downgrade our recommendation on 3rd-Oct LVMH - The start of a recovery at Louis Vuitton staffing companies to sell from neutral on Adecco (Fair Value CHF58) and Randstad (Fair 2nd-Oct VINCI - BUY, Fair Value EUR47 vs. EUR45 (+7%) Value to EUR38 from EUR33) mainly due to valuations. We are convinced that the inflection 1st-Oct VICAT - Road Show feedback: Egypt improving in point could be reached in Q4, i.e. positive lfl revenue growth after negative figures since Q1 2014 2012 for Adecco and Q2 2012 for Randstad . 24th-Sept SUEZ ENVIRONNEMENT - Roadshow feedback - Key takeaways 18th-Sept VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT Roadshow feedback – In brief... Turnaround on track 17th-Sept FRESENIUS SE - Happy ending for the Rhoen saga KERING (EX PPR), Soft LFL sales growth for Gucci in Q3 (+2% expected vs. +4% in H1) We expect Gucci brand sales growth in Q3 13 should be limited, close to 2% after +4% 320 04/10/13 both in Q2 and in H1, despite an easier comparison base (+7% in Q3 12 and +10.8% in H1 12). 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 Stoxx Europe MAV 50D MAV 200D Source Thomson Reuters BG’s Wake Up Call Back to front page Luxury & Consumer Goods Luxottica The Investors Day next week could harbour some catalysts for the stock Price CHF38.50 Fair Value EUR44 (+14%) BUY Bloomberg LUX IM Next week on October 8 & 9 Luxottica will host an Investors Day in its US Retail headquarters Reuters LUX.MI which are located in Mason (suburb of Cincinnati). For the first time since the acquisition of 12-month High / Low (CHF) 42.7 / 27.9 Oakley in 2007, Luxottica will go further into its strategy for North America which accounts for Market Cap (CHFm) 18,378 58% of group’s sales, with a particular focus on US Retail. As highlighted in our Optics Sector Ev (BG Estimates) (CHFm) 19,816 Report in May (“ US: an emerging market? ”), the US optics market harbours significant growth Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 541.8 3y EPS CAGR 15.1% potential despite already being the leading market for Luxottica or Essilor (~40% of sales). ANALYSIS 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/12 • North American Retail: 78% of Retail business sales and 48% of group revenue. With 2012 Absolute perf. -3.6% -1.9% -3.6% 23.9% sales of EUR3.4bn and 4,818 stores, NA Retail is definitely core for the Retail Business as well as Consumer Gds 1.4% 3.7% -1.5% 9.0% for the Italian group. The two major retail banners are: i) LensCrafters (~90% of sales in NA => DJ Stoxx 600 2.6% 8.4% 5.0% 10.7% ~EUR1.3bn), which is the leading optical retailer (mix: ~75% Rx and ~25% sun) and ii) Sunglass YEnd Dec. (€m) 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e Hut (~80% of sales in NA => ~EUR800m) which is also the largest specialty sunglass retail Sales 7,086 7,489 8,050 8,654 business. These two brands continue to gain market share in NA thanks to a premium/high end % change 5.7% 7.5% 7.5% product offering and a focus on service (LC: on-site labs, personalised shopping experience, use EBITDA 1,340 1,473 1,627 1,785 of the Accufit Digital Measurement System, etc.). Hence, they will continue to be the main growth engine of US Retail. EBIT 982.0 1,103 1,230 1,359 % change 12.3% 11.5% 10.4% • What future for Pearle Vision, Sears Optical and Target Optical? LUX might provide more Net income 541.7 642.5 739.7 832.5 details about its strategy for these three brands. Since 2011 Pearle Vision has been shifting % change 18.6% 15.1% 12.5% from a DOS-oriented business model (254 DOS at end-2012) into a franchising network(357 franchised stores) and we expect this trend to go on in the future. Sears Optical (775 stores, 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e sales of ~EUR300m) and Target Optical (331 stores, sales of ~EUR150m) are licensed brands Operating margin 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.7 with stores located in the eponymous department stores. Whilst TO is in good shape, SO Net margin 7.6 8.6 9.2 9.6 posted disappointing performance over the past few years as the department-store chain is ROE 13.6 15.1 16.0 16.5 struggling with tougher competition and a decline in footfall. There have had frequent rumours ROCE 9.7 11.0 12.2 13.4 of a possible sale of SO. Gearing 41.6 33.7 24.1 14.6 • North American Wholesale: 27% of Wholesale business sales and 11% of group revenue. (€) 2012 2013 e 2014 e 2015 e Although it will not be the key subject at the Investors Day, LUX should certainly come back on EPS 1.15 1.36 1.56 1.76 the significant growth prospects offered by the NA market for the Wholesale business. As a % change - 17.8% 15.1% 12.5% reminder LUX estimates that almost 80% of sunglass purchases are made at prices of less than P/E 33.4x 28.3x 24.6x 21.9x USD50, whereas in Europe it is around EUR100. To reduce this gap, LUX must expand its store FCF yield (%) 4.2% 3.8% 4.2% 4.8% network further, as its better-trained sales force will educate consumers and convince them to Dividends (€) 0.58 0.70 0.78 0.88 trade up. Again, US Retail will be a key pillar in the group’s Wholesale business expansion in NA. Div yield (%) 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% • A word on the current trading? Despite a satisfying 24% increase in the share price ytd, the EV/Sales 2.8x 2.6x 2.4x 2.2x stock’s performance over 3M was a bit negative (-3.3%), explained by the weak USD and EV/EBITDA 15.0x 13.5x 12.0x 10.7x concerns regarding the US macro (end of QE3, US shutdown) despite signs of recovery (US EV/EBIT 20.4x 18.0x 15.9x 14.1x housing and unemployment rate figures are well-oriented). It will be interesting to have LUX’s opinion about the activity trends in the US after some groups have reported soft numbers during the summer due to consumers’ arbitrage in favour of new cars and real estate over discretionary products.
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