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TOP PICKS Report INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Top Picks 14th January 20144 Top Picks 1Q 2014 Top Picks ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES BUY FV EUR8.5 This is the first volume of our ‘Top Picks’ for 2014. As with those Last Price EUR6.551 Market Cap. EUR1,145m previously published, this list is not intended to be a model portfolio but BAYER BUY EUR112 Last Price EUR98.82 Market Cap. EUR81,719m simply a pure stock-picking exercise in our coverage universe. However BUREAU VERITAS BUY FV EUR28 it reflects a bias towards themes that we believe fit perfectly with the Last Price EUR21.045 Market Cap. EUR9,288m current macro and financial environment. FRESENIUS SE BUY FV EUR125 First of all, if we make a short come-back and have a look to our selection Last Price EUR114.4 Market Cap. EUR20,526m n in 2013 overall and in the fourth-quarter, we are happy to have been able GDF SUEZ BUY EUR20 to outperform whatever the benchmark index we are selecting in Europe. Last Price EUR16.72 Market Cap. EUR40,342m For instance we outperformed Stoxx Europe 600 by close to 10% over the HOLCIM BUY FV CHF79 year and as importantly we did so very consistently in each of the four Last Price CHF68.75 Market Cap. CHF22,487m quarters of the year. Hopefully it reflects the quality of our picking strategy LAFARGE BUY EUR66 in the sectors we are covering. Last Price EUR53.66 Market Cap. EUR15,414m LVMH BUY FV EUR167 n Now, more difficult is to perform well over a long period of time and to Last Price EUR126.35 Market Cap. EUR64,160m repeat performances, if only to move away from simply the influence of MELIA HOTELS BUY EUR11 chance! That is what is ahead of us as a goal: try to do as good in 2014. Last Price EUR9.79 Market Cap. EUR1,809m NOVO NORDISK BUY DKK240 n So, as we move into the new calendar year, we first updated our hypothesis Last Price DKK209.1 Market Cap. DKK462,647m for valuation modelling. Risk-free rates and equity risk premium were both QIAGEN BUY FV EUR19.5 reduced, first by 20bp to 2.8% and second by 10bp to 6.0% despite we use Last Price EUR17.825 Market Cap. EUR4,272m a long-term approach and a 3 to 7-year horizon. RWE BUY FV EUR35 n As far as the list per se, interestingly the very first comment is to stress that Last Price EUR25.525 Market Cap. EUR15,563m the list was increased from 12 stocks to 16 stocks without any significant SAP BUY FV EUR74 change to the mix as defensive and growth stocks equally progressed. Last Price EUR61.21 Market Cap. EUR75,197m While Healthcare doubled its presence into the list with 4 stocks (Bayer SOFTWARE AG BUY FV EUR34 and Novo-Nordisk being added), Utilities also did so with 2 stocks (GDF- Last Price EUR25.65 Market Cap. EUR2,230m Suez and RWE). AXA BUY FV EUR23 Last Price EUR20.15 Market Cap. EUR48,720m This document is a compilation of the notes written for the update of our Top Picks list ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP BUY CHF300 Last Price CHF261.8 Market Cap. CHF38,979m 107.0 Top Picks Q4 2013 7.26% 105.0 STOXX 600 4.92% STOXX 50 4.66% 103.0 101.0 99.0 97.0 01/10/13 15/10/13 29/10/13 12/11/13 26/11/13 10/12/13 24/12/13 Perf Perf Perf Perf Perf Perf Perf Q1 13 Q2 13 H1 13 Q3 13 9M 13 Q4 13 2013 Top Picks (EUR) 5.40% -1.10% 4.24% 8.81% 13.43% 7.26% 21.65% STOXX EUROPE 600 4.66% -3.46% 1.04% 5.62% 6.72% 4.92% 11.98% STOXX EUROPE 50 5.04% -2.98% 1.91% 7.69% 9.75% 4.66% 14.86% r r Top Picks Table of contents Our top picks for 1Q 2014 are ................................................................................................................... 3 Top picks for 3Q 2013 performances ...................................................................................................... 4 Insurance : Top picks Q1 2014: AXA and Zurich ....................................................................................................... 5 Healthcare : Top Picks Q1 2014 – Novo-Nordisk and Bayer jump in; Fresenius SE and Qiagen stay in ......... 7 Utilities : 2013 review, 2014 prospects, and Top Picks: GDF Suez and RWE ................................................. 10 Construction & Materials : TOP Picks Q1 2014 : we remove Saint-Gobain and include Holcim and Lafarge ......................... 11 Business Services : Top Pick: Bureau Veritas ........................................................................................................................... 13 Hotels : Top pick: Melia Hotels ............................................................................................................................... 15 Luxury & Consumer Goods : Poor end to 2013 expected // Top Picks: LVMH and adidas Group .............................................. 17 IT Software & Services : 2013 review, 2014 prospects, and Top Picks .......................................................................................... 19 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .............................................................................................. 22 2 Top Picks Our top picks for 1Q 2014 are Changes : Fig. 1: Valuation ratios: 1Q 2014 Top Picks + BAYER + BUREAU VERITAS Market Cap. EV/EBIT(x) PER (x) RDT (%) + GDF SUEZ (EUR) 2013e 2014e 2013e 2014e 2013e 2014e Reco FV + HOLCIM ADIDAS 18 543 11.9 9.8 22.3 18.2 1.7% 2.1% BUY €102 + LAFARGE ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES 1 118 8.0 6.3 12.1 9.7 1.4% 1.9% BUY €8.5 + MELIA + NOVO NORDISK BAYER 81 719 10.1 9.2 17.2 15.2 2.3% 2.6% BUY €112 + RWE BUREAU VERITAS 9 220 14.1 13.0 22.5 19.8 2.1% 2.3% BUY €28 + SOFTWARE AG FRESENIUS SE 20 643 8.7 7.5 19.4 16.8 1.1% 1.2% BUY €125 + ZURICH INS. GROUP GDF SUEZ 40 342 6.5 6.3 11.7 11.5 9.0% 9.0% BUY €20 - ACCOR HOLCIM 21 866 8.7 7.6 20.4 15.2 1.8% 2.2% BUY CHF79 - SAINT GOBAIN LAFARGE 15 414 8.5 6.9 24.3 14.4 2.3% 2.8% BUY €66 - SODEXO LVMH 62 428 9.9 9.1 18.2 16.0 2.6% 2.9% BUY €167 - VEOLIA ENV. MELIA HOTELS 1 809 11.4 9.8 86.0 38.2 0.4% 0.4% BUY €11 -ALLIANZ NOVO NORDISK 462 647 12.9 12.0 22.6 20.2 2.0% 2.2% BUY DKK240 QIAGEN 4 278 15.5 13.9 24.3 21.5 0.0% 0.0% BUY €19.5 RWE 14 365 5.5 6.6 6.4 11.0 4.0% 4.0% BUY €35 SAP 75 860 13.1 11.7 18.8 17.5 1.5% 1.7% BUY €74 SOFTWARE AG 2 162 8.3 7.5 12.1 11.7 1.8% 1.8% BUY €34 AXA 58 409 - - 10.0 10.2 4.0% 4.0% BUY €140 ZURICH INS. GROUP 38 979 - - 11.2 10.9 5.9% 5.9% BUY €300 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. Fig. 2: Dividend payments: 1Q 2014 Top Picks Top Picks Ex-Dividend date Amount NOVO NORDISK 21/03/2014 est. Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. Our Top Picks are updated and published every quarter. 3 Top Picks Top picks for 4Q 2013 performances 3Q 2013 perf. incl. Div. Euro Local Ccy Euro Local Ccy ACCOR (out 28/11/13)* -3.0 -3.0 -2.99 -2.99 ADIDAS 15.1 15.1 15.14 15.14 ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES 3.8 3.8 3.81 3.81 FRESENIUS 20.3 20.3 20.30 20.30 LVMH -10.4 -10.4 -0.10 -0.10 QIAGEN 5.3 5.3 5.25 5.25 SAINT GOBAIN 5.3 5.3 5.31 5.31 SAP 13.5 13.5 13.50 13.50 SODEXO 5.3 5.3 5.28 5.28 VEOLIA ENV. (out 21/10/13)* 3.82 3.82 3.82 3.82 ALLIANZ (XET) 11.4 11.4 11.41 11.41 AXA 15.9 15.9 15.95 15.9 4Q 2013 Top picks average Perf. 8.01 8.01 8.1 8.1 STOXX EUROPE 600 4.9 4.9 5.37 STOXX EUROPE 50 4.7 4.7 4.88 *calculation based on the opening prices of the day the stock has been removed. Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests 4 Top Picks Insurance : Top picks Q1 2014: AXA and Zurich LOOKING BACK ON Q4 2013 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/12 Q3 2013 results, released in November, came in pretty strong: Insurance 4.1% 11.0% 20.1% 27.6% DJ Stoxx 600 2.7% 5.8% 14.8% 17.2% · Excluding Euler Hermes, all the companies we cover reported in line or better-than-expected *Stoxx Sector Indices results, driven by solid underwriting performances (P&C, reinsurance). Companies covered Companies that issued FY guidance (Allianz, Hannover Re, Munich Re) clearly said they would AEGON SELL FV EUR6.4 · be in a position to exceed them, and provided higher guidance. Last Price EUR6.807 Market Cap. EUR14,509m ALLIANZ BUY FV EUR140 Central banks remained at the centre of the game, especially the FED’s policy. But in the end, reducing QE with a strong commitment that short-term interest rates should remain very low for Last Price EUR128.5 Market Cap. EUR58,660m quite some time has turned out to be a positive move. AXA BUY EUR23.0 vs.21.5 Last Price EUR19.79 Market Cap. EUR47,844m Q4 2013 has been another positive quarter for asset valuations, with European rates stabilising CNP ASSURANCES NEUTRAL FV EUR16 (10Y Euro rate at 2.8%), corporate and financial sector spreads going down (respectively Last Price EUR15.35 Market Cap.
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