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Ncsoft (036570 KS ) Rally to Be Stronger in 2019 Than in 2017

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Ncsoft (036570 KS ) Rally to Be Stronger in 2019 Than in 2017 NCsoft (036570 KS ) Rally to be stronger in 2019 than in 2017 Games 4Q18 preview: Lineage M to continue QoQ growth Earnings Preview For 4Q18, we forecast NCsoft to deliver revenue of W407bn (-23.7% YoY, +0.7% QoQ) January 17, 2019 and operating profit of W131bn (-30.9% YoY, -6.0% QoQ). For Lineage M , which exhibited its highest user indicators of 2018 following its update on September 28 th , we estimate 4Q18 revenue grew 0.6% QoQ to W218bn. Despite the slight revenue gain QoQ, we believe operating profit contracted QoQ, due (Maintain) Buy to: 1) a one-off payment for the signing of new players for the NC Dinos baseball team; and 2) advertising spending on Lineage Remastered . Target Price (12M, W) 700,000 Why 2019 is likely to be even stronger than 2017 Share Price (01/16/19, W) 465,500 In 2017, NCsoft’s stock gained 85.3% (vs. +22.0% for the KOSPI), boosted by expectations on Lineage M (released on June 21 st ). In 2019, we believe the stock will Expected Return 50% experience an even bigger rally. As we outline in <Table 3>, Lineage M was the only new title the company launched in 2017, and revenue was predominately concentrated in the domestic market. OP (18F, Wbn) 633 In 2019, NCsoft has two to five new mobile titles set for release, including Lineage II M Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 634 (1H19). We also expect overseas expansion to gather steam in 2019. We note that EPS Growth (18F, %) 3.1 Lineage II , Aion , and Blade & Soul have seen overseas revenues either comparable to Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 6.2 or much higher than their domestic revenues. P/E (18F, x) 22.5 The company is also set to carry out a beta test for its upcoming PC/console game The Market P/E (18F, x) 8.7 Lineage in 2019. The title is expected to have a simultaneous global release in 2020 for KOSPI 2,106.10 both PC and console, signaling the company’s platform expansion beyond mobile to Market Cap (Wbn) 10,213 console. Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 There have recently been reports that Amazon (AMZN US/CP: US$1,683.7) is getting Free Float (%) 81.9 ready to launch a cloud game streaming service in 2020. We believe leading cloud Foreign Ownership (%) 49.5 companies like Amazon, Alphabet (US GOOGL/CP: US$1,089.5), and Microsoft (MSFT Beta (12M) 1.16 US/CP: US$105.3) will battle to secure game content in 2019 as each seeks to become 52-Week Low 332,500 the Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$351.3) of gaming services. 52-Week High 512,000 January to mark bottom for 2019; Maintain Buy and TP of W700,000 (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -6.9 18.6 9.1 In 2018, while US and Chinese game stocks sold off on regulations and valu ation Relative -8.5 29.6 30.7 pressures, NCsoft’s stock delivered solid gains on the back of strong foreign buying. We expect the company to post healthy results for 4Q18 and continue earnings growth 130 NCsoft KOSPI in 1Q19, backed by the addition of Lineage Remastered revenue. 120 110 The biggest downside risk is delays in game releases. If NCsoft reaffirms its 2019 game 100 schedule when it announces 4Q18 earnings, new title expectations will likely be 90 reflected into shares. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W700,000. 80 70 1.18 5.18 9.18 1.19 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Internet ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 838 984 1,759 1,722 2,099 2,337 Chang -kwean Kim +822 -3774 -1614 OP (Wbn) 237 329 585 633 884 1,070 [email protected] OP margin (%) 28.3 33.4 33.3 36.8 42.1 45.8 NP (Wbn) 165 272 441 455 640 757 EPS (W) 7,542 12,416 20,104 20,732 29,157 34,519 ROE (%) 10.6 14.9 19.1 15.8 19.6 19.9 P/E (x) 28.2 19.9 22.3 22.5 16.0 13.5 P/B (x) 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates January 17, 2019 NCsoft Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 2017 2018F Revenue 240 259 727 533 475 436 404 407 1,759 1,722 Lineage 51 34 35 34 28 42 40 41 154 152 Lineage II 18 17 16 15 14 13 16 14 66 57 Aion 13 11 10 13 19 16 16 15 47 66 Blade & Soul 45 39 38 40 34 31 30 29 161 124 Guild Wars 2 14 14 20 35 24 20 21 19 83 83 Mobile games 23 94 551 327 264 210 216 218 995 908 Other 11 15 13 11 8 13 12 11 50 44 Royalties 64 36 44 60 84 92 52 59 203 287 Operating profit 30 38 328 189 204 160 139 131 585 633 OP margin 12.7 14.5 45.1 35.5 42.9 36.5 34.4 32.1 33.3 36.8 Net profit 17 31 275 121 119 140 94 104 444 458 Net margin 7.3 11.9 37.8 22.6 25.1 32.1 23.4 25.5 25.2 26.6 YoY growth Revenue -0.6 7.5 234.3 87.4 98.3 68.8 -44.5 -23.7 78.8 -2.1 Lineage -34.8 -64.2 -57.8 -71.5 -45.1 24.5 14.0 22.9 -58.9 -1.5 Lineage II 7.7 -12.6 -24.1 -26.0 -22.7 -19.9 0.0 -8.4 -14.7 -13.3 Aion -33.9 -38.5 -36.8 -29.6 41.1 44.3 61.1 21.6 -34.6 40.9 Blade & Soul -17.5 -20.2 -5.2 0.5 -23.9 -21.4 -20.8 -25.7 -11.6 -23.0 Guild Wars 2 -53.4 -14.7 31.5 134.8 66.2 46.6 4.0 -46.8 8.1 0.2 Mobile games 51113.1 110771.6 1613.2 1028.2 124.0 -60.7 -33.4 4935.0 -8.7 Other -1.5 -14.9 -22.2 -17.4 -24.8 -15.6 -6.5 2.2 -15.1 -11.3 Royalties 116.1 33.8 80.2 43.2 32.5 155.8 18.3 -0.3 66.0 41.8 Operating profit -59.8 -56.4 403.4 86.0 569.1 324.8 -57.6 -30.9 77.8 8.2 Net profit -73.7 -65.9 474.3 80.7 584.9 355.0 -65.7 -14.1 63.6 3.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised Change 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F Revenue 1,712 2,091 1,722 2,099 0.6 0.4 Operating profit 635 880 633 884 -0.3 0.4 Net profit 459 642 458 644 -0.3 0.4 OP margin 37.1 42.1 36.8 42.1 - - Net margin 26.8 30.7 26.6 30.7 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 17, 2019 NCsoft Figure 1. Share performance and Lineage M –related events in 2017 (W) ③ June 21st ⑤ November 9th 550,000 Lineage M launch 3Q17 earnings release ② June 3rd ④ August 7th Over 5mn 2Q17 pre-registrations earnings release 450,000 ① April12th Pre-registration period begins: 1mn in first 8 hours 350,000 250,000 150,000 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 3. New game momentum: 2017 vs. 2019F 2017 rally 2019F rally - NCsoft shares began to rally in March on new title expectations and rose 37% (vs. +13.1% for the KOSPI) through June 20 th ahead of Lineage M ’s release. - New title expectations are likely to be reflected into the stock earlier this time, The stock subsequently reversed course as momentum slowed. and momentum could be sustainable. * March 2nd : W263,500 June 20 th : W361,000 - A single-game story: Lineage M - Two to five new titles: Lineage II M , Aion 2 , Blade & Soul 2/S/M - Potential overseas penetration: Lineage II , Aion , Blade & Soul - Revenue heavily concentrated in the domestic market - Lineage II , Aion , and Blade & Soul already have broad player bases overseas - Lineage M was released for the domestic market; PC title Lineage is widely Lineage II : Domestic revenue = Overseas revenue popular among Korean gamers, with the majority of revenue coming from the Aion : Domestic revenue < Overseas revenue domestic market. Blade & Soul : Domestic revenue <<< Overseas revenue - Multi-platform story: PC ↔ Mobile ↔ Console - Platform expansion from PC to mobile - The Lineage : Beta test in 2019; simultaneous global release of PC and console versions in 2020 - Cloud game market to take shape Microsoft Acquired cloud-based game development platform Announced game streaming technology Project xCloud Developing cloud-based next-generation game device Google Open source for cloud game platform There were expectations for success, but no long-term story Announced Chrome-based game streaming service Video content → OTTs like Netflix Game content → Cloud game-based services Amazon In talks with game companies to launch game streaming service in 2020 - Supply/demand dynamics: Foreign game stocks like Tencent (700 HK/CP: - Supply/demand dynamics: Foreign game stocks have sold off on China’s game HK$331.0), Electronic Arts (EA US/CP: US$89.9), Activision Blizzard (ATVI US/ CP: regulations (licenses) and high valuations of US game stocks.
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