, Lineage M was the only new title the company launched in 2017, and revenue was predominately concentrated in the domestic market. OP (18F, Wbn) 633 In 2019, NCsoft has two to five new mobile titles set for release, including Lineage II M Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 634 (1H19). We also expect overseas expansion to gather steam in 2019. We note that EPS Growth (18F, %) 3.1 Lineage II , Aion , and Blade & Soul have seen overseas revenues either comparable to Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 6.2 or much higher than their domestic revenues. P/E (18F, x) 22.5 The company is also set to carry out a beta test for its upcoming PC/console game The Market P/E (18F, x) 8.7 Lineage in 2019. The title is expected to have a simultaneous global release in 2020 for KOSPI 2,106.10 both PC and console, signaling the company’s platform expansion beyond mobile to Market Cap (Wbn) 10,213 console. Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 There have recently been reports that Amazon (AMZN US/CP: US$1,683.7) is getting Free Float (%) 81.9 ready to launch a cloud game streaming service in 2020. We believe leading cloud Foreign Ownership (%) 49.5 companies like Amazon, Alphabet (US GOOGL/CP: US$1,089.5), and Microsoft (MSFT Beta (12M) 1.16 US/CP: US$105.3) will battle to secure game content in 2019 as each seeks to become 52-Week Low 332,500 the Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$351.3) of gaming services. 52-Week High 512,000 January to mark bottom for 2019; Maintain Buy and TP of W700,000 (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -6.9 18.6 9.1 In 2018, while US and Chinese game stocks sold off on regulations and valu ation Relative -8.5 29.6 30.7 pressures, NCsoft’s stock delivered solid gains on the back of strong foreign buying. We expect the company to post healthy results for 4Q18 and continue earnings growth 130 NCsoft KOSPI in 1Q19, backed by the addition of Lineage Remastered revenue. 120 110 The biggest downside risk is delays in game releases. If NCsoft reaffirms its 2019 game 100 schedule when it announces 4Q18 earnings, new title expectations will likely be 90 reflected into shares. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W700,000. 80 70 1.18 5.18 9.18 1.19
Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.
[ Internet ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 838 984 1,759 1,722 2,099 2,337 Chang -kwean Kim +822 -3774 -1614 OP (Wbn) 237 329 585 633 884 1,070 [email protected] OP margin (%) 28.3 33.4 33.3 36.8 42.1 45.8
NP (Wbn) 165 272 441 455 640 757 EPS (W) 7,542 12,416 20,104 20,732 29,157 34,519 ROE (%) 10.6 14.9 19.1 15.8 19.6 19.9
P/E (x) 28.2 19.9 22.3 22.5 16.0 13.5 P/B (x) 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
January 17, 2019 NCsoft
Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 2017 2018F Revenue 240 259 727 533 475 436 404 407 1,759 1,722 Lineage 51 34 35 34 28 42 40 41 154 152 Lineage II 18 17 16 15 14 13 16 14 66 57 Aion 13 11 10 13 19 16 16 15 47 66 Blade & Soul 45 39 38 40 34 31 30 29 161 124 Guild Wars 2 14 14 20 35 24 20 21 19 83 83 Mobile games 23 94 551 327 264 210 216 218 995 908 Other 11 15 13 11 8 13 12 11 50 44 Royalties 64 36 44 60 84 92 52 59 203 287 Operating profit 30 38 328 189 204 160 139 131 585 633 OP margin 12.7 14.5 45.1 35.5 42.9 36.5 34.4 32.1 33.3 36.8 Net profit 17 31 275 121 119 140 94 104 444 458 Net margin 7.3 11.9 37.8 22.6 25.1 32.1 23.4 25.5 25.2 26.6 YoY growth Revenue -0.6 7.5 234.3 87.4 98.3 68.8 -44.5 -23.7 78.8 -2.1 Lineage -34.8 -64.2 -57.8 -71.5 -45.1 24.5 14.0 22.9 -58.9 -1.5 Lineage II 7.7 -12.6 -24.1 -26.0 -22.7 -19.9 0.0 -8.4 -14.7 -13.3 Aion -33.9 -38.5 -36.8 -29.6 41.1 44.3 61.1 21.6 -34.6 40.9 Blade & Soul -17.5 -20.2 -5.2 0.5 -23.9 -21.4 -20.8 -25.7 -11.6 -23.0 Guild Wars 2 -53.4 -14.7 31.5 134.8 66.2 46.6 4.0 -46.8 8.1 0.2 Mobile games 51113.1 110771.6 1613.2 1028.2 124.0 -60.7 -33.4 4935.0 -8.7 Other -1.5 -14.9 -22.2 -17.4 -24.8 -15.6 -6.5 2.2 -15.1 -11.3 Royalties 116.1 33.8 80.2 43.2 32.5 155.8 18.3 -0.3 66.0 41.8 Operating profit -59.8 -56.4 403.4 86.0 569.1 324.8 -57.6 -30.9 77.8 8.2 Net profit -73.7 -65.9 474.3 80.7 584.9 355.0 -65.7 -14.1 63.6 3.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised Change
2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F Revenue 1,712 2,091 1,722 2,099 0.6 0.4 Operating profit 635 880 633 884 -0.3 0.4 Net profit 459 642 458 644 -0.3 0.4 OP margin 37.1 42.1 36.8 42.1 - - Net margin 26.8 30.7 26.6 30.7 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
Figure 1. Share performance and Lineage M –related events in 2017
(W) ③ June 21st ⑤ November 9th 550,000 Lineage M launch 3Q17 earnings release ② June 3rd ④ August 7th Over 5mn 2Q17 pre-registrations earnings release 450,000 ① April12th Pre-registration period begins: 1mn in first 8 hours 350,000
250,000
150,000 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 6/17 7/17 8/17 9/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Table 3. New game momentum: 2017 vs. 2019F 2017 rally 2019F rally - NCsoft shares began to rally in March on new title expectations and rose 37% (vs. +13.1% for the KOSPI) through June 20 th ahead of Lineage M ’s release. - New title expectations are likely to be reflected into the stock earlier this time, The stock subsequently reversed course as momentum slowed. and momentum could be sustainable. * March 2nd : W263,500 ‰ June 20 th : W361,000 - A single-game story: Lineage M - Two to five new titles: Lineage II M , Aion 2 , Blade & Soul 2/S/M
- Potential overseas penetration: Lineage II , Aion , Blade & Soul - Revenue heavily concentrated in the domestic market
- Lineage II , Aion , and Blade & Soul already have broad player bases overseas - Lineage M was released for the domestic market; PC title Lineage is widely Lineage II : Domestic revenue = Overseas revenue popular among Korean gamers, with the majority of revenue coming from the Aion : Domestic revenue < Overseas revenue domestic market. Blade & Soul : Domestic revenue <<< Overseas revenue
- Multi-platform story: PC ↔ Mobile ↔ Console - Platform expansion from PC to mobile - The Lineage : Beta test in 2019; simultaneous global release of PC and console versions in 2020
- Cloud game market to take shape Microsoft ‰ Acquired cloud-based game development platform ‰ Announced game streaming technology Project xCloud ‰ Developing cloud-based next-generation game device
Google ‰ Open source for cloud game platform There were expectations for success, but no long-term story ‰ Announced Chrome-based game streaming service ‰ Video content → OTTs like Netflix ‰ Game content → Cloud game-based services
Amazon ‰ In talks with game companies to launch game streaming service in 2020
- Supply/demand dynamics: Foreign game stocks like Tencent (700 HK/CP: - Supply/demand dynamics: Foreign game stocks have sold off on China’s game HK$331.0), Electronic Arts (EA US/CP: US$89.9), Activision Blizzard (ATVI US/ CP: regulations (licenses) and high valuations of US game stocks. Foreign investors’ US$47.1), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO US/CP: US$105.9) rallied; NCsoft was interest in NCsoft is expected to grow. not seen by foreign investors as particularly attractive. * NCsoft foreign ownership: 44.46% (Jan. 2, 2018) ‰ 49.68% (Dec. 28, 2018) *NCsoft foreign ownership: 37.28% (Jan. 2, 2017) ‰ 44.42% (Dec. 28, 2017) 49.63% as of Jan. 16, 2019 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
Figure 2. Cumulative Lineage II revenue: Overseas vs. Korea Figure 3. Cumulative overseas Lineage II revenue by region
(through 2017) (through 2017)
(Wbn) (Wbn) 1,000 500
826 827 400 378 750
300 500 200 159 146 250 100 84 58
0 0 Overseas Korea Japan Taiwan Europe US China
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Figure 4. Annual Lineage II revenue: Overseas vs. Korea (2004-17)
(Wbn) 120 Overseas Korea
90
60
30
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Figure 5. Cumulative Aion revenue: Overseas vs. Korea Figure 6. Cumulative overseas Aion revenue by region
(through 2017) (through 2017)
(Wbn) (Wbn) 1200 600 1,013 516 931 900 450
600 300 230
300 150 117 104 46
0 0 Overseas Korea China Europe Japan US Taiwan
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
Figure 7. Annual Aion revenue: Overseas vs. Korea (2008-17)
(Wbn) 200 Overseas Korea
150
100
50
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Figure 8. Cumulative Blade & Soul revenue: Overseas vs. Figure 9. Cumulative overseas Blade & Soul revenue by region
Korea (through 2017) (through 2017)
(Wbn) (Wbn) 1,200 1,000 1,024 776 900 750
600 500 438 438
300 250 115 89 31 14 0 0 Overseas Korea China Korea US/EU Taiwan Japan East Asia
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Figure 10. Annual Blade & Soul revenue: Overseas vs. Korea (2012-17)
(Wbn) 300 Overseas Korea
200
100
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W700,000)
Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue 1,759 1,722 2,099 2,337 Current Assets 1,773 2,117 2,486 3,026 Cost of Sales 212 207 252 281 Cash and Cash Equivalents 187 566 595 921 Gross Profit 1,547 1,515 1,847 2,056 AR & Other Receivables 198 192 234 261 SG&A Expenses 962 882 963 986 Inventories 1 1 1 1 Operating Profit (Adj) 585 633 884 1,070 Other Current Assets 1,387 1,358 1,656 1,843 Operating Profit 585 633 884 1,070 Non-Current Assets 1,754 1,700 1,963 2,124 Non-Operating Profit 25 47 35 40 Investments in Associates 34 33 40 45 Net Financial Income 16 23 28 34 Property, Plant and Equipment 229 205 185 167 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -2 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 52 50 47 45 Pretax Profit 610 680 919 1,110 Total Assets 3,527 3,816 4,450 5,150 Income Tax 166 222 275 347 Current Liabilities 456 446 544 606 Profit from Continuing Operations 444 458 644 763 AP & Other Payables 43 42 51 57 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 444 458 644 763 Other Current Liabilities 413 404 493 549 Controlling Interests 441 455 640 757 Non-Current Liabilities 342 338 379 405 Non-Controlling Interests 3 3 4 5 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 150 150 150 150 Total Comprehensive Profit 919 458 644 763 Other Non-Current Liabilities 192 188 229 255 Controlling Interests 916 457 642 760 Total Liabilities 797 784 923 1,010 Non-Controlling Interests 3 1 2 2 Controlling Interests 2,721 3,022 3,511 4,118 EBITDA 615 659 907 1,090 Capital Stock 11 11 11 11 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 566 477 757 840 Capital Surplus 433 433 433 433 EBITDA Margin (%) 35.0 38.3 43.2 46.6 Retained Earnings 1,906 2,206 2,696 3,303 Operating Profit Margin (%) 33.3 36.8 42.1 45.8 Non-Controlling Interests 8 11 16 21 Net Profit Margin (%) 25.1 26.4 30.5 32.4 Stockholders' Equity 2,729 3,033 3,527 4,139
Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Cash Flows from Op Activities 595 477 757 840 P/E (x) 22.3 22.5 16.0 13.5 Net Profit 444 458 644 763 P/CF (x) 15.6 15.0 11.2 9.3 Non-Cash Income and Expense 185 223 268 331 P/B (x) 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 Depreciation 27 24 21 18 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 12.9 9.0 7.0 Amortization 3 3 2 2 EPS (W) 20,104 20,732 29,157 34,519 Others 155 196 245 311 CFPS (W) 28,692 31,058 41,598 49,863 Chg in Working Capital 11 -8 90 57 BPS (W) 131,144 144,824 167,148 194,834 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -42 4 -41 -26 DPS (W) 7,280 7,280 7,280 7,280 Chg in Inventories 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%) 34.8 32.7 23.3 19.7 Chg in AP & Other Payables -4 0 0 0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Income Tax Paid -63 -222 -275 -347 Revenue Growth (%) 78.8 -2.1 21.9 11.3 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -460 56 -571 -359 EBITDA Growth (%) 70.4 7.2 37.6 20.2 Chg in PP&E -28 0 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 77.8 8.2 39.7 21.0 Chg in Intangible Assets -4 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 61.9 3.1 40.6 18.4 Chg in Financial Assets -1,263 56 -571 -359 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 10.0 9.0 10.0 9.6 Others 835 0 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 2,983.9 3,390.7 3,765.5 3,610.3 Cash Flows from Fin Activities -80 -155 -150 -150 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 48.4 100.4 111.5 106.9 Chg in Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 15.1 12.5 15.6 15.9 Chg in Equity 1 0 0 0 ROE (%) 19.1 15.8 19.6 19.9 Dividends Paid -81 -155 -150 -150 ROIC (%) - - - - Others 0 0 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 29.2 25.8 26.2 24.4 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 42 378 29 326 Current Ratio (%) 388.9 474.3 456.9 499.6 Beginning Balance 145 187 566 595 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -51.1 -57.5 -58.6 -62.2 Ending Balance 187 566 595 921 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 179.6 194.3 271.1 328.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) NCsoft NCsoft (036570) 11/26/2018 Buy 700,000 800,000 08/27/2018 No Coverage 05/10/2018 Buy 500,000 600,000 04/16/2018 Buy 600,000 09/26/2017 Buy 640,000 400,000 07/09/2017 Buy 600,000 200,000 05/01/2017 Buy 500,000
01/02/2017 No Coverage 0 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 81.28% 9.63% 9.09% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 84.61% 3.85% 11.54% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2018)
Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of NCsoft as an underlying asset; other than this, Mirae Asset Daewoo has no other special interests in the covered companies.
Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8 January 17, 2019 NCsoft
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 9
