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Ncsoft (036570 KS ) a Compelling Buy NCsoft (036570 KS ) A compelling buy Game 4Q18 review: Earnings come in slightly below our expectation Results Comment For 4Q18, NCsoft reported revenue of W399.7bn (-1% QoQ, -25% YoY). Operating profit February 13, 2019 fell to W112.6bn (-19% QoQ, -41% YoY), due to the recognition of bonus payouts and a one-off payment for the signing of new players for the NC Dinos baseball team. Both revenue and operating profit fell slightly short of our estimates (W407bn and W131bn, respectively). However, revenue from Lineage M continued to grow (+3% (Maintain) Buy QoQ), confirming a longer lifecycle for mobile titles. Target Price (12M, W) 700,000 New title release schedule has yet to be confirmed Investors were looking forward to more clarity on the new-title release schedule, as the Share Price (02/12/19, W) 433,500 company has several times mentioned that it has up to five new mobile titles set for release in 2019. However, it did not offer a timeline for the first mobile title re lease Expected Return 61% during the earnings call. Nevertheless, the company stressed that its plan to globally release blockbuster mobile titles such as Lineage II M , Aion II , and Blade & Soul II in 2019 remains unchanged. In OP (18P, Wbn) 615 addition, a beta test for the upcoming PC/console game The Lineage will be carried out Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 632 as scheduled in mid-2019. EPS Growth (18P, %) -5.1 No changes to the big picture; recommend Buy from a medium-term perspective Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 5.1 P/E (18P, x) 24.4 We made marginal changes to our 2019 earnings forecast, reflecting the 4Q18 Market P/E (18F, x) 9.1 earnings release (see Table 1). Although we think the release of Lineage II M is likely to KOSPI 2,190.47 be delayed from 2Q19 to 3Q19, our assumption regarding the 2019 release of blockbuster mobile titles is intact. Market Cap (Wbn) 9,511 Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Despite the absence of new title releases, the outlook for 1Q-2Q19 is solid in ligh t of nd Free Float (%) 81.9 large-scale updates to Lineage M (scheduled to be unveiled on February 22 ) and Foreign Ownership (%) 49.0 Lineage Remastered (for which a second test is underway). Beta (12M) 0.78 NCsoft’s shares typically see a boost in the quarter prior to when new title releases 52-Week Low 332,500 translate into earnings. Accordingly, we expect the stock to gain momentum from 52-Week High 512,000 either 1Q19 (if new title releases begin in 2Q19) or 2Q19 (if releases are delayed to (%) 1M 6M 12M 3Q19). Absolute -11.4 20.1 10.4 Although the absence of a clear timeline for new titles is disappointing, we maintain Relative -16.1 25.1 20.3 our Buy rating in light of the company’s upcoming new blockbuster titles, aggressive foray into global markets, and platform expansion (consoles), as well as the rise of the 120 NCsoft KOSPI 110 cloud gaming market. Our target price of W700,000 is based on the upper end of the 100 stock's P/E band (24.1x) and our 2019F EPS. 90 80 70 60 1.18 5.18 9.18 1.19 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Internet ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18P 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 838 984 1,759 1,715 2,091 2,339 Chang -kwean Kim +822 -3774 -1614 OP (Wbn) 237 329 585 615 847 1,070 [email protected] OP margin (%) 28.3 33.4 33.3 35.9 40.5 45.7 NP (Wbn) 165 272 441 421 624 745 EPS (W) 7,542 12,416 20,104 19,084 28,464 33,953 ROE (%) 10.6 14.9 19.1 14.7 19.4 19.8 P/E (x) 28.2 19.9 22.3 24.4 15.2 12.8 P/B (x) 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.6 2.3 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates February 13, 2019 NCsoft Table 1. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F Revenue 2,099 2,337 2,091 2,339 -0.4 0.1 Operating profit 884 1,070 847 1,070 -4.2 0.0 Net profit 640 757 629 750 -1.7 -0.9 Reflects 4Q18 earnings OP margin 42.1 45.8 40.5 45.7 - - Net margin 30.5 32.4 30.1 32.0 - - Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, % ) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18P 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2017 2018P 2019F 2020F Revenue 475 436 404 400 399 406 607 679 1,759 1,715 2,091 2,339 Lineage 28 42 40 39 37 41 39 42 154 150 158 146 Lineage II 14 13 16 21 18 14 15 15 66 64 63 59 Aion 19 16 16 13 15 14 14 15 47 63 57 54 Blade & Soul 34 31 30 25 28 26 27 28 161 120 108 89 Guild Wars 2 24 20 21 16 18 17 18 19 83 80 72 69 Mobile games 264 210 216 223 220 230 430 494 995 913 1,373 1,236 Other 8 13 12 11 12 11 12 12 50 44 47 45 Royalties 84 92 52 53 52 53 53 54 203 282 212 247 Operating profit 204 160 139 113 123 122 264 337 585 615 847 1,070 OP margin 42.9 36.5 34.4 28.3 30.9 30.1 43.5 49.6 33.3 35.9 40.5 45.7 Net profit 119 140 94 68 83 89 199 258 444 421 629 750 Net margin 25.1 32.1 23.4 16.9 20.7 22.0 32.7 38.0 25.2 24.6 30.1 32.0 YoY growth Revenue 98.3 68.8 -44.5 -24.9 -16.0 -6.9 50.2 69.7 78.8 -2.5 22.0 11.9 Lineage -45.1 24.5 14.0 15.7 29.8 -2.9 -3.8 7.3 -58.9 -3.0 5.7 -7.7 Lineage II -22.7 -19.9 0.0 37.0 27.6 8.1 -2.2 -25.5 -14.7 -2.9 -1.0 -6.8 Aion 41.1 44.3 61.1 0.4 -22.6 -13.0 -14.1 18.3 -34.6 35.2 -9.9 -5.0 Blade & Soul -23.9 -21.4 -20.8 -36.8 -18.7 -14.3 -10.6 10.5 -11.6 -25.8 -9.4 -17.8 Guild Wars 2 66.2 46.6 4.0 -55.0 -22.5 -14.3 -15.7 21.7 8.1 -3.2 -10.0 -3.8 Mobile games 1028.2 124.0 -60.7 -31.8 -16.8 9.4 98.5 121.7 4935.0 -8.2 50.4 -10.0 Other -24.8 -15.6 -6.5 2.2 46.2 -9.8 -7.2 11.2 -15.1 -11.3 6.4 -3.0 Royalties 32.5 155.8 18.3 -10.3 -37.6 -42.7 2.2 1.2 66.0 38.9 -24.7 16.4 Operating profit 569.1 324.8 -57.6 -40.1 -39.4 -23.3 89.9 197.6 77.8 5.1 37.8 26.3 Net profit 584.9 355.0 -65.7 -44.0 -30.7 -36.3 110.2 281.7 63.6 -5.0 49.1 19.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 13, 2019 NCsoft Table 3. Valuation table (Wbn, x, %) Revenue Operating profit Net profit EV/EBITDA P/E P/B ROE Company Market cap 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F NCsoft (KOR) 9,511 2,052 2,477 796 1,020 602 766 10.0 7.9 15.8 12.4 2.9 2.4 19.9 20.9 Netmarble 10,061 2,066 2,605 265 498 224 373 23.3 13.7 45.2 27.1 2.2 2.0 5.1 8.1 Com2Us 1,530 578 651 187 214 155 180 4.3 3.7 9.9 8.5 1.5 1.3 16.4 16.5 NHN Entertainment 1,223 1,258 1,480 77 99 120 78 8.8 7.3 11.1 15.9 0.7 0.7 7.9 4.9 Pearl Abyss 2,550 414 616 184 280 161 226 11.9 7.7 15.3 11.1 5.9 3.8 46.4 43.3 Webzen 678 206 225 64 74 53 61 8.3 7.3 12.9 11.2 1.7 1.5 15.1 14.9 DoubleU Games 1,031 544 598 172 196 116 137 7.1 6.4 9.2 7.4 1.6 1.3 21.3 20.8 WeMade 581 122 139 1 6 11 10 73.0 45.8 52.9 57.4 1.9 1.9 3.8 3.5 Activision Blizzard (US) 34,486 8,381 8,190 2,824 2,731 2,254 2,211 11.2 11.2 15.5 15.9 2.7 2.4 17.2 15.2 Electronic Arts 32,826 5,372 5,647 1,554 1,699 1,339 1,441 16.3 15.2 24.9 22.9 5.6 5.1 23.0 21.5 Take-Two Interactive 11,914 3,296 3,108 727 797 625 647 12.9 12.0 19.8 18.9 4.9 4.0 33.6 18.6 Zynga 5,048 1,322 1,644 233 306 221 272 16.7 12.4 23.5 18.6 2.6 2.3 9.0 13.5 Glu Mobile 1,501 505 575 64 99 64 92 21.7 15.0 26.3 18.8 6.5 5.6 26.0 28.4 Ubisoft (FR) 9,746 2,654 2,900 555 659 468 535 7.5 6.8 22.7 20.4 6.4 4.7 28.3 25.0 Nintendo (JP) 42,249 12,679 14,034 2,704 3,668 2,019 2,666 11.5 8.3 17.9 13.6 2.4 2.2 14.1 17.1 Nexon 15,234 2,813 2,997 1,153 1,254 933 975 9.4 8.7 16.0 15.4 2.3 2.0 15.5 13.7 Square Enix 4,181 2,603 2,815 297 406 213 275 7.8 5.8 18.9 14.4 1.9 1.8 10.2 13.0 DeNA 2,591 1,381 1,425 176 202 133 148 5.1 4.6 18.8 16.9 0.9 0.9 5.3 5.5 GungHo Online 2,846 903 882 235 211 152 136 8.4 8.8 15.1 16.7 2.5 2.2 20.8 15.8 GREE 1,109 773 813 80 92 59 65 2.8 2.6 17.9 16.7 0.9 0.9 5.1 5.4 Tencent (CH) 481,975 52,279 67,554 16,870 19,126 12,837 15,627 25.1 21.4 36.2 30.5 8.6 6.8 26.7 24.3 NetEase 35,537 11,209 13,992 1,284 1,550 1,407 1,680 20.7 16.6 24.8 20.7 4.1 3.5 13.8 15.2 Kingsoft 3,118 948 1,305 -58 74 37 137 40.8 10.9 70.2 21.0 1.5 1.4 3.2 5.7 Youzu Interactive 2,727 618 773 149 190 156 191 17.0 14.0 17.7 14.4 3.3 2.8 19.0 19.2 Changyou 1,120 519 495 112 128 120 118 5.0 5.0 10.2 10.4 1.2 1.1 12.4 11.5 Average 15.5 11.2 22.7 18.3 3.1 2.6 16.8 16.1 Note: Market cap, revenue, operating profit, and net profit are based on Bloomberg figures (exchange rates as of Feb.
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