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Euroscepticism: a Result of Too Much European Integration?

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Euroscepticism: a Result of Too Much European Integration? Master’s Thesis Euroscepticism: A result of too much European Integration? A process-analysis of Euroscepticism in times of crisis. Author: Marcus Glimsholt Supervisor: Brigitte Pircher Examiner: Emil Uddhammar Term: VT21 Subject: International Affairs Level: Advanced Course code: 5SK30E Abstract During the last decade, the European Union has had to overcome several types of crises, for example, the economic crisis, the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, and Brexit. Currently, the EU is facing the Covid-19 pandemic. It is well known that there is a strong relationship between the multifaceted crises and the EU’s responses to them and increased Euroscepticism in the EU countries as a result. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the reasons why such crises result in increasing Euroscepticism. More specifically, the study explores the mechanisms that can be identified as causes for Euroscepticism. To test the hypothesis that the crises’ responses made by the EU created an opportunity for Eurosceptic actors to thrive, a process-analysis of the responses was conducted. Three legislative acts as main responses to the economic crisis and the migration crisis were chosen, to analyze a mechanism between the crises and increased Euroscepticism in the EU member states. The responses were then combined with data on the EU citizens’ trust for the EU to identify if the EU’s responses to these crises have been a major cause for increased Eurosceptic tendencies. The results show that even though some of the EU’s responses to the crises resulted in increased Euroscepticism, EU citizens do not seem to lose their trust in the EU or their institutions in the long run. Key words Euroscepticism, European Integration, Migration Crisis, Economic Crisis, Process- Analysis, Historical Institutionalism. Table of contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose 2 1.2 Research Questions 2 2 Theoretical framework 3 2.1 Euroscepticism 3 2.1.1 Varieties of Euroscepticism 4 2.2 Previous Research 6 2.3 Historical Institutionalism 9 2.3.1 Path Dependency 10 2.3.2 Critical Junctures 11 2.3.3 Historical Institutionalism in practice 12 2.4 Hypotheses 14 3 Method 14 3.1 Mechanisms 15 3.2 Criticism of Case-Centric Process-Analyzing 16 3.3 Material 17 3.3.1 The Economic Crisis 17 3.3.2 The Migration Crisis 19 3.3.3 Eurobarometer 20 4 Analysis 21 4.1 Europe 2020 21 4.1.1 The European Citizens view of the EU in 2010. 21 4.1.2 Europe 2020 - a strategy to strengthen the European economy. 23 4.1.3 Europe 2020 and an increase in Euroscepticism. 26 4.1.4 Summary Europe 2020 29 4.2 The Banking Union 34 4.2.1 The European Citizen view of the economic situation 2012 35 4.2.2 The mechanism which could explain an outcome in Euroscepticism regarding the Banking Union 37 4.2.3 Summary of The Banking Union 41 4.3 The EU Migrant Relocation and Resettlement Scheme 45 4.3.1 The European citizens’ trust in the EU in 2015 46 4.3.2 Identifying a mechanism for Euroscepticism in the case of the Resettlement Scheme. 47 4.3.3 Summary of the Resettlement Scheme 51 5 Conclusion 55 6 Bibliography 58 List of Tables and Figures List of Tables: Table 1: Mechanism explaining Euroscepticism in Europe 2020. ........................... 31 Table 2. Citizens response to “Tend to Trust” their national government and the EU in percentage in 2012. .............................................................................................. 37 Table 3. Mechanism explaining Euroscepticism in The Banking Union. ................ 42 Table 4. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU in 2012 and 2015. ..................................................................................................... 44 Table 5: EU citizens response to “The EU economy is good” in percentage across the EU in 2012 and 2015. ......................................................................................... 44 Table 6. Mechanism explaining Euroscepticism in the Resettlement Scheme. ....... 51 Table 7. Citizens of Hungary, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Greece responds to “Tend to Trust” the EU in percentage in 2015. ........................................................ 54 Table 8. Citizens of Hungary, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Greece responds to “Tend to Trust” the EU in percentage in 2017. ........................................................ 54 List of Figures: Figure 1: EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2010. ...................................................................................... 22 Figure 2. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2010. ...................................................................................... 32 Figure 3. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2015. ...................................................................................... 32 Figure 4. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2015. ...................................................................................... 47 Figure 5. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2015. ...................................................................................... 53 Figure 6. EU citizens response to “Tend to trust” the EU in percentage across the EU member states in 2017. ...................................................................................... 54 1 Introduction Throughout the last decade, the European Union (EU) has had to withstand several crises. The Great Recession, the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Brexit and most recently the Covid-19 pandemic. The different crises with their different focal points forced the EU to adapt and overcome them. For so long it has gone well, so well in fact that some claim that the crises have the potential to increase European integration. Davis Cross (2017:4) states that every time the EU has found itself in a crisis, it has been portrayed as the end of the EU, but the EU has persevered, and the forced change has strengthened the EU instead. However, during the crises another issue grows larger, Euroscepticism. Euroscepticism has continually been mentioned as a product of the crises, arguing that for every crisis the EU has to endure, political actors find ways to fortunate on the EU citizens misfortune, and by creating a narrative which deems the EU as the fault, increasing Eurosceptic tendencies (Pirro & van Kessel 2017, Caiani & Graziano 2017). The rise of populism has been a common answer from scholars to the question of what is responsible for the increase in Euroscepticism. However, what has also been shocking, is that many populistic actors who have been identified carrying Eurosceptic tendencies, more often than not have been positive for European integration (Pirro & van Kessel 2017:405). In fact, neither of the member states with populistic parties has advocated for their state to exit out of the EU (ibid.), except for The United Kingdom (UK). Moreover, populist political parties have never had as much political power as they do now. For example, the last European Parliament’s election increased the populist seats from 118 in 2014 to 161 in 2019 (Ivaldi 2020:72). This against the background that the most recent Standard Eurobarometer shows that 49% of the European citizens tend to trust the European Union (Eurobarometer 2021:38), which is a relatively high number compared to previous polls during the last decade. Thus, this creates the interpretation that the discussion of increasing Euroscepticism does not entirely align with populism, as the rise of populism does not correlate with a decrease in trust for the EU. The 1(63) question then is, what is it that drives the assumption that the crisis has led to an increase in Euroscepticism? This is the question which this study aims to take a closer look at. With a seemingly ever continuation of crises in many various shapes, the issue is severe. If more crises will come, as the now active Covid-19 pandemic, one can also make the rational assumption that Euroscepticism will rise along, which leaves one to wonder what result that will have on the EU in the long run. Will more member states leave the EU as the UK did, or was it an isolated incident? Nevertheless, the aim of this study is to investigate closer to the presumed assumption that crises within the EU lead to an increase in Euroscepticism. Even though it is a common correlation made by many scholars (Hobolt & de Vries 2016, Bârgăoanu et.al 2015, Stockemer et.al 2020), this thesis aims to look closer at the relationships between these two. What is the mechanism that makes this assumption viable? To do so, the focus will lie on the responses made by the EU towards the economic crisis and the migration crisis. What are the underlying mechanisms within the responses made by the EU which can explain the assumption that the crises increase Euroscepticism? 1.1 Purpose The aim of the study is to identify mechanisms in the EU’s response towards the economic crisis as well as the migration crisis and investigate if these mechanisms explain an increase in Euroscepticism. 1.2 Research Questions To what extent has the EU’s response to the economic crisis and migration crisis changed citizens’ support for the EU in the member states? Have the EU governance measures introduced as a response to the crises had enabling or constraining effects on the level
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