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Cuaderno De Documentacion SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMÍA, MINISTERIO DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DE ECONOMÍA Y SUBDIRECCIÓN GENERAL HACIENDA DE ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 69 Alvaro Espina Vocal Asesor 16 de febrero 2004 CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACIÓN 16022004 Nº69 DEFLATION & LIQUIDITY TRAPS (XII) 1. PRESENTACIÓN: ¿Existe una amenaza real de trampa de liquidez en el G3? Conclusión (II), por Álvaro Espina........................... 3 2. “La curva de Laffer ataca de nuevo, por Luis de Sebastián.................... 8 3. Japón comienza a recuperarse del estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria, por Georgina Higueras.................................................................. 9 4. The latest views of Morgan Stanley Economists…………….……. 11 5. [email protected] El pulso económico en el 2004......... 38 6. The Economist.com Global economic outlook………………………………… 61 7. FT.com.- The world in 2004………………………………………………………… 117 8. Deutsche Welle.- Volatilidad de cancilleres y mercados...................................... 129 9. BusinessWeekonline.- 2004 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK ..…….. 136 10. La globalización y sus quejas en 2004, by Joseph Stiglitz............... 164 11. Le nouvel ordre Internet, by Ignacio Ramonet...................................... 166 12. El escándalo de la pobreza mundial, by Paul Kennedy............... 168 13. 'IT'S THE SYSTEM, STUPID!', by John Elkington………………. 170 14. From the magic mountain: the World Economic Forum by Simon Zadek…………………………………………………………………………..173 15. Comisión 'versus' Ecofin: consecuencias jurídicas y políticas por Antonio Estella.............................................................................................................181 16. Financial integration: Where do we stand?, by Jean-Claude Trichet …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 183 17. Bank of England: News Release and Inflation Report (11-II-04)………… 189 18. Rubin Gets Shrill, by Paul Krugman (New York Times Op-ed)…………. 192 19. Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray by Peter R. Orszag, Robert E. Rubin, Allen Sinai……………………………………. 194 20. U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability.- I. Overview: Returning Deficits and the Need for Fiscal Reform, M. Mühleisen and Ch. Towe, Editors (IMF)………………………………………….. 197 1 21. Testimony & Remarks by the Chairman and Governors of the FRB Alan Greenspan, February 11, 2004…………………………………..213 Susan Schmidt Bies, February 4, 2004….…………………………….220 Alan Greenspan, January 26, 2004……………………………………227 Alan Greenspan, January 13, 2004……………………………………233 Donald L. Kohn, January 7, 2004……………………………………..242 Ben S. Bernanke and Vincent R. Reinhart, January 3, 2004………….272 Nobuyuki Nakahara, former board member of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) (NBER 2002)……………………………………………………..……...279 Ben S. Bernanke January 3, 2004…………………………………….281 Alan Greenspan January 3, 2004……………………………………...292 Ben S. Bernanke, January 4, 2004…………………………………….303 Alan Greenspan, November 20, 2003………………………………...311 22. Brad Delong: Starve the Beast?……………………………………..320 BACKGROUND PAPERS…………………………….……..323 23. What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules, Lars E. O. Svensson (52 pp.) 24. OCDE press conference in Davos, by Jean Phillipe Cotis (8 pp.) 25. Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray Robert E. Rubin, Peter R. Orszag, and Allen Sinai (20 pp.) 26. ¿Firmaría Laffer la próxima rebaja del IRPF?, por Carlos Cuesta, Expansión, 10-II-2004 (2 pp.) 27. Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption”, by Jordi Galí, J.David López-Salido & Javier Vallés (39 pp.) 28. Economic reform in Europe, by J.C. Trichet, (5 pp.) 29. When Leaner Isn’t Meaner: Measuring Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe, by Tamim Bayoumi, Douglas Laxton &Paolo Pesenti , (56 pp.) 30. Hard and soft economic policy coordination under EMU: problems, paradoxes and prospects, by Iain Begg, (13 pp.) 31. The Stability and Growth Pact in need of reform, by Paul De Grauwe, (9 pp.) 32. ¿Cómo reconstituir el Pacto de estabilidad?, por Carlos Mulas- Granados (1 p). 2 ¿EXISTE UNA AMENAZA REAL DE TRAMPA DE LIQUIDEZ EN EL G3? Conclusión (II) Álvaro Espina Conclusión El G3 se encuentra amenazado o inmerso en una situación de deflación con trampa de liquidez, lo que supondría caer por un precipicio económico. Aunque las etiologías de los males de cada área son por completo diferentes –así como las oportunidades e indicios de una recuperación duradera- en caso de recaída siempre aparece el mismo diagnóstico: las causas que condujeron a la situación crítica impiden también la utilización de los instrumentos de política económica disponibles para impulsar una recuperación sostenible a medio y largo plazo. Existe también el riesgo de contagio y mutuo reforzamiento. Además, en la medida en que más de una de estas áreas –o todas ellas- caigan o persistan en la situación de estancamiento y grave desequilibrio, la corrección del problema será todavía más difícil, porque las medidas beneficiosas para una zona dañarán la recuperación de las otras. En síntesis, puede decirse que la intensidad de la amenaza actual –y la imposibilidad de corregirla con simples medidas de política monetaria y fiscal convencionales- proviene de la incapacidad o la lentitud de cada una de estas zonas para adaptarse a los shocks producidos por la globalización, la demografía y la nueva revolución tecnológica, que abre paso a la sociedad de la información y el conocimiento globales, cambiando la economía y la forma de interpretarla y gobernarla1. Esta incapacidad es idiosincrásica de cada área, de modo que puede hablarse de tres males: el Japonés (J), el Americano (A) y el Europeo (E). El mal J ha sido calificado con un nuevo término, la “disflación”, 2 que consiste en la combinación de deflación con el mayor cúmulo concebible de actuaciones equivocadas (disfuncionales) llevadas a cabo por el gobierno japonés y los reguladores autónomos de los mercados monetario y financiero durante el último decenio. El primero se ha mostrado incapaz de acometer la liberalización y/o la re-regulación de los mercados –interior y exterior; de factores y productos-, la transparencia contable de las empresas de los keiretsus y el saneamiento de la banca y del sistema de pensiones, fiándolo todo a paquetes estimuladores que encubren el déficit corriente y distribuyen los bienes públicos en razón de intereses clientelares. Para obligarle a cumplir sus tareas y a pasar de un sistema de financiación dirigido por la banca a otro centrado en el mercado de capitales,3 las otras autoridades se han resistido a colaborar, acumulando ineficiencia institucional, de modo que “unos por otros, la casa por barrer”, proporcionando con su actuación un verdadero campo de experimentación para el análisis de los errores en política macroeconómica4. Todo ello con un trasfondo de trampa de liquidez y de deuda, reflejada mejor 1 Véase Joseph E. Stiglitz , “Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics” Prize Nobel Lecture, December 8, 2001, en: http://www-1.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/NobelLecture.pdf [CD 68]. 2 Véase “Fixing Japan. Kill or Cure?”, The Economist, 25-Sep-2003, [CD 61] en: http://economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=S%27%298%2C%24QQ%5B%2A%21%20%21%3C%0A 3 Véase Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap (2001), Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future, MIT Press. [La recensión de JEL se incluyó en CD 68]. 4 La mejor síntesis puede verse en los abstracts de los últimos números de Financial Review, del Ministerio de Hacienda japonés, disponibles en: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/f_review.htm [CD 68]. 3 que otra cosa por la burbuja inmobiliaria que estalló a finales de 1991 y sólo parece haber tocado suelo en 2003.5 El mal A es el de la confianza absoluta en el mercado y el de un activismo monetario, que, cuando actúa discrecionalmente, eleva igualmente la volatilidad económica, reduciendo el crecimiento, y, cuando lo hace orientado por la regla de Taylor, reproduce la política de los años setenta y tiende a sobreestimar la tasa natural de crecimiento, lo que podría conducir a los pésimos resultados de entonces,6 por mucho que la FED haya aprendido mucho desde entonces y se muestre ahora dispuesta a invertir su actual política tan pronto repunten las expectativas de inflación observadas “a través de las encuestas y en los mercados financieros”, reafirmándose, además, en la regla de Taylor, que implica una respuesta asimétrica.7 Por el contrario, la evidencia indica que -en lugar de obcecarse en el empleo de reglas- es preferible la fijación de objetivos de inflación.8 Todo ello combinado con la acumulación exponencial de déficit de acción colectiva, de regulación –tanto a nivel doméstico como global-, y de dotación de bienes y servicios públicos, que vienen a añadirse al déficit público y al exterior.9 Este último sobrepasa ya el 5% del PIB, que es la mediana del punto en que los mercados se resisten a continuar financiándolo, por mucho que la deuda bruta norteamericana con el exterior suponga todavía un modesto 25% del PIB.10 Según el FMI, la proyección del déficit público para el próximo decenio implica una grave amenaza para la estabilidad monetaria y supondrá una elevación de hasta un punto en los tipos de interés de los países industrializados, con el consiguiente impacto negativo sobre su crecimiento.11 Para la OCDE esa es la amenaza principal que se cierne
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