S1947/456119 Administration

www.africa-confidential.com 10 September 2020 - Vol 61 - N° 18 - online edition

RWANDA BLUE LINES As President Nana Akufo- Exile flies into a trap Addo becomes chairman of the Economic Community of West African States and the Secretariat of the African Continental Free Trade Area prepares to start The celebrated hotel manager turned regime opponent was flown to arrest in Kigali by operations in Accra, it’s a bad time the President’s favourite charter jet company for Ghana to get into a trade row with Nigeria. aul Rusesabagina, the real- to arrive to their destinations well rested The roots of the current froideur life character behind the 2004 and ready for whatever awaits them.’ are in Nigeria’s closure of all its P Hollywood movie Hotel Rwanda, Africa Confidential called Gainjet’s land borders a year ago, which has ended up on show in Kigali in handcuffs operations personnel several times and left slowed trade along the West African on 4 September raising myriad questions a message but received no reply. Gainjet is seaboard, with some Ghanaian of international law as President Paul yet to explain whether it knew the identity companies blaming the move for Kagame’s government faces mounting of its passenger and whether Rusesabagina production cuts and bankruptcies. regional opposition. boarded the flight to Kigali voluntarily. Ghana sympathised with Nigeria’s Athens-based Gainjet, regularly used immediate neighbours – Benin, by Kagame, owns the Challenger 605 long- FREQUENT TRAVELLER Niger and Cameroon – which range business jet, registration SX-FSA, Gainjet has taken President Kagame all argued the border closure defied which flew Rusesabagina out of Dubai just over the world. Their relationship goes the single-market principle of after midnight on 28 August, arriving in back at least to 2012 when Kagame flew in Ecowas. In January, Akufo-Addo Kigali just before 6am. a Gainjet Gulfstream 450 to Luton airport, proposed negotiations but these A long-time political opponent of in southern England, to attend a summit made little progress against Kagame’s government, Rusesabagina will on family planning alongside the then the economic pressures of the be tried for acts of terrorism committed United Kingdom Prime Minister David coronavirus pandemic. by groups Kigali claims were under his Cameron, Uganda’s President Yoweri A few months later, a bizarre control. Piecing together a picture drawn Museveni and the US philanthropist incident in which a land dispute from President Kagame’s statements at Melinda Gates. resulted in a private contractor a 6 September press conference with That plane appeared to be a favourite demolishing a building in Nigeria’s speculation by members of Rusesabagina’s with Kagame, who used it to attend the diplomatic compound in Accra inner circle and experts familiar with World Economic Forum in Davos in further poisoned relations. That intelligence service methods, the January 2014 and again in March to go amplified longer-held grievances indications are that Rusesabagina did not to Ireland, according to plane-spotters. by Nigerian traders in Ghana, know he was entering the lion’s den when It also took him to South Africa in July which forbids all foreign nationals he boarded the aircraft. 2018 for the meeting of the Brazil-Russia- from operating retail businesses Whether Rusesabagina, who is in India-China-South Africa (BRICS) group. unless they invest US$1 million poor health after receiving chemotherapy Since June this year Gainjet has flown in the country, a sum beyond the treatment in the United States, was five return trips to Kigali, the most recent means of most Nigerian traders. tricked into getting onto the plane hired being from Kigali to Moscow on 22 August As tensions grew, more Nigerian by the Rwandan government or was and back again on 30 August. Other Gainjet businesses have been closed forcibly abducted is irrelevant according aircraft, including the one Rusesabagina down in Ghana. Some traders to laws governing rendition of suspects. boarded, have flown to Kigali before. fear that getting tough with big Photos on Gainjet’s website show the Gainjet was founded in 2006 by Ramsey brother Nigeria could become Challenger has a ‘luxuriously appointed Shaban, the former chief pilot of Iraqi an issue in Ghana’s elections in and spacious interior’, and a range of 4,600 Airways. The company flew its Boeing December, militating against an miles. Ironically, in the circumstances, 757 from Washington to Dublin, then on early settlement. Gainjet stresses that ‘passengers are sure to Benghazi on 2 August at the height of

SOUTH AFRICA 2 SOUTH AFRICA 3 MALAWI 5 NIGERIA 7 ETHIOPIA 8

BURKINA FASO 10

How to defend Cyril wins a Shaky start for Building back Property of Asempa Limited the indefensible battle over graft the new broom bigger COVID-19 11 If Ace Magashule isn’t caught With backing from ANC President Chakwera’s Planning to spend 20 billion POINTERS 12 up in a prosecution, the leaders, the President can fight against corruption is dollars on grand projects, President’s clean-up could make good on his pledge to popular but concerns are the Buhari government be stopped in its tracks prosecute rogue officials growing about nepotism taking on more debt

Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

rendition, saying that all who boarded one with links to groups engaged in AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL the aircraft did so voluntarily. This attacks within Rwanda itself, especially 37 John’s Mews, London WC1N 2NS, UK begs the question, however, as to what close to the border with Burundi (AC Vol Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 international cooperation there was 59 No 16). Over the past year, we hear, Editor: Patrick Smith Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir if nothing untoward happened on the a third of the Rwandan Defence Force Website Editor: Juliet Amissah ground in Dubai. has been deployed to protect that border Published fortnightly since 1960 Kigali has not published the warrant with Burundi. 25 issues per year it referred to, but it issued one in 2010 The East African, a regional www.africa-confidential.com which led to an unsuccessful extradition newspaper, briefly interviewed Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. ISSN 0044-6483 attempt and court hearings in Belgium. Rusesabagina in custody by phone on 7 All material is copyright Africa Confidential A court then heard that Kigali accused September. Asked about his activities, Rusesabagina of financing the Forces he said: ‘I formed my own political US discussions with Libyan National Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda party PDR-Ihumure to promote justice’. Army commander Khalifa Haftar about (FDLR), the mainly Hutu exile group in When asked about ‘innocent victims’ of a ceasefire with the Tripoli government. Congo-Kinshasa thought to comprise armed action in southern Rwanda by a Rusesabagina had arrived in Dubai the remnants of the forces that group which was recently formed by a on a direct Emirates flight from Chicago committed the 1994 genocide. The merger of PDR-Ihumure and two others, at 18.45 local time on 27 August and Paris-based Jeune Afrique publication he was reported to say, ‘I’m sorry as a stayed for a few hours in a hotel, reported it had sight of a 14-page responsible person, but everyone has to according to a United Arab Emirates warrant issued against Rusesabagina in be responsible for his actions.’ official who spoke to the broadcaster November 2018 in which he was accused In his press conference President CNN, before boarding the Challenger at of ‘constitution of an illegal armed Kagame claimed that groups Al Maktoum airport, one of Dubai’s two group’, and six further violations of Rusesabagina led had killed people international airports. No information Rwandan law including murder, armed in three districts in the south-west. has emerged about who was also on the robbery, ‘incitement to insurrection’ In what’s generally been taken as an aircraft apart from the Gainjet pilot and and arson. allusion to Rusesabagina being caught co-pilot. Media reports say his family Last year, Rusesabagina’s house in in a sting operation, Kagame said, ‘how and friends did not know why he was in Belgium was searched by local police in he got here was more about himself than Dubai except for ‘meetings’. the presence of his lawyer and officials anyone else... if you feed somebody a Rwanda never publicly announced from the Rwandan embassy. Nothing false story that fits well in the narrative where Rusesabagina’s flight to Kigali incriminating was found at the time. of what he wants to be and he follows originated, although it claimed it Rusesabagina has been under attack it and he finds himself in a case like received international co-operation by the Rwandan government ever since that...’ When asked if Rusesabagina and that there was an international Hotel Rwanda was released. He became a was kidnapped or tricked, Kagame said, warrant out for him. The fact that critic of Kagame before leaving for exile ‘Kidnap was not the case. Rusesabagina UAE officials spoke anonymously to in Belgium in 1996. He later called for will attest to that himself.’ He drew CNN invited speculation that they Kagame’s overthrow. His name has been an analogy: what had happened to wanted to distance the country from linked to more than one exile group Rusesabagina was like him ‘calling the any suggestion of involvement in a operating in eastern Congo-K, including wrong number’. l

SOUTH AFRICA Gupta-owned companies. South Africans have been waiting with impatience for the National How to defend the indefensible Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to bring charges against a political heavyweight for crimes relating to ‘state capture’. Hermione Cronje, the head of the If ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule isn’t caught up in a prosecution, the NPA’s investigative unit, raised hopes President’s clean-up could be stopped in its tracks on 30 August saying it would charge ‘a high-profile individual’ in September eading South Africa’s delegation that they ‘were looking forward to a relating to the Estina scandal. Zwane for crisis talks in Zimbabwe on good Christmas’. They are certain that and Magashule fit that definition. L 8 September – no matter how Magashule’s star is on the wane. In late August, Zwane complained tortuous – must have been a welcome A former Premier of the Free State, to the ANC that the special police unit, break for Ace Magashule, away from Magashule has been named, along with the Hawks, were trying to coerce him the cauldron of local politics. Along with former Free State Agriculture Minister into implicating Magashule during their a posse of top politicians allied with ex- and subsequently the national Minister investigations. President Jacob Zuma, Magashule has of Mines Mosebenzi Zwane, in an Magashule is due to give a ‘wide- become a symbol of the era of state investigation which has found that ranging interview’ to the ANC’s Integrity capture in South Africa. most of the 220 million rand (US$12m) Commission about his dealings with the As Secretary-General of the African intended for a dairy project in the Guptas and other accusations. However, National Congress (ANC), Magashule small, rural town of Estina was diverted the Commission has only the power to suffered a serious reverse when the to companies owned by the Gupta make recommendations to the NEC.

National Executive Committee (NEC) family, Zuma’s business allies who fled As ANC Secretary-General and Property of Asempa Limited rejected his attempt to block President South Africa shortly after Ramaphosa manager of the NEC’s meetings, Cyril Ramaphosa’s anti-corruption became President in February 2018 (AC Magashule could marshal enough rules, then force Ramaphosa from office. Vol 59 No 4). Magashule has been the support within the body to protect Now Ramaphosa’s backers are beneficiary of much Gupta munificence, him from censure. But if Magashule jubilant. One told Africa Confidential and his two sons have worked for is charged by the NPA, everything

2 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration changes. Under the new rules approved involved all manner of payoffs seemingly headed by Iqbal Survé, once close to by the NEC he would then be obliged at odds with Ramaphosa’s assurances. Zuma but whose business empire now to step down from the position of Ramaphosa will probably be able to faces legal and financial woes, is eager Secretary-General until the case explain the matter to the satisfaction of for such stories. Independent news sites concluded, albeit on full pay. the ANC Integrity Commission, many of such as News24, the Daily Maverick and That is, if Magashule plays by the whose appointees are party members the Mail & Guardian, early supporters of rules. Like several others, he could just who rose to prominence during Thabo Ramaphosa, now carry reports showing ignore the party rules on corruption and Mbeki’s presidency and detest Zuma the lack of progress in the fight against use his position as Secretary-General and his acolytes. Despite the Magashule corruption. to challenge Ramaphosa’s authority group’s accusations, there seems no again. Whatever happens, his lawyers, prospect of criminal charges against SCORES like Zuma’s, may try to drag out the Ramaphosa relating to his campaign’s The NEC’s new rules might help case as long as possible in the hope that bank statements. Ramaphosa with his Magashule the country’s crashing economy will Yet continued accusations of problem, particularly if the NPA weaken Ramaphosa, and his current hypocrisy and being too close to launches prosecutions. But they could graft-busting enthusiasm. Western capital could fatally undermine store up trouble for the party down If Magashule is not charged, or if he Ramaphosa’s presidency. With the latest the line. ANC structures are already is charged and acquitted, Ramaphosa’s data recording a 50% drop in national compiling lists to head office detailing new-found majority support on the income in the second quarter of the members who have been convicted, NEC could crumble. Then Magashule, year during the pandemic lockdown, charged or accused of corruption. and other Zuma allies, could launch the country faces grinding economic Arguments are breaking out about who another fightback claiming they are hardship for the next year at least. should be included. being victimised. Some economists forecast the Some activists warn the ANC could recession will drag on until the next create a Stalinist climate where people BANK CHARGE elections in 2024. However long, the are accused and put on lists to settle An important weapon for this weak economy will test Ramaphosa’s political scores. Although Ramaphosa’s counter-offensive could be the bank determination to push through reforms supporters judge that internal ANC statements relating to the campaign and retain grassroots support. politics are finally swinging their way, supporting Ramaphosa’s bid for the Other weapons in the Zuma faction’s there are lingering concerns that the party presidency in December 2017. fightback will be a stream of leaks anti-corruption regime risks starting a The former Public Protector Busisiwe to the press about tender corruption new form of factionalism. Mkhwebane, another close ally of committed by Ramaphosa-aligned New rules for the ANC won’t by Zuma, has previously claimed these members of the ANC. The generation themselves stop the criminality or statements showed evidence of money of rents for the politically connected speed investigation and prosecution laundering (AC Vol 60 No 11). from the award and implementation of it. Some want specialised and fast- That claim was set aside in March by of government tenders, dating back to track anti-corruption courts. Others are the North Gauteng High Court, which National Party rule and apartheid, has pushing for tougher laws and penalties, accepted Ramaphosa’s request that the become ingrained in South African including long custodial sentences for statements be kept secret. In any case, politics. Evidently, many supporters any officials found guilty of misuse of the statements were leaked and are of Ramaphosa’s faction expect to find public funds. In the end, what happens embarrassing for the President, showing ways to profit from their connections. in the criminal justice system will have that the campaign cost up to R1bn, and The Independent newspaper group, far more effect than new party edicts. l SOUTH AFRICA leadership: whether the revamped National Prosecuting Authority will Cyril wins a battle over graft start winning cases against corrupt officials. The NPA outsourced much of its investigative work after the Zuma government undermined its operations, With backing from ANC leaders and vast evidence, the President can make good planting spies and saboteurs in key on his pledge to prosecute rogue officials areas of the organisation. We hear that Ramaphosa’s newfound support in the ANC executive, combined t may prove to be the most decisive marshalling a comfortable margin of with a regulatory move to allow evidence two days in Cyril Ramaphosa’s support on the 86-strong committee presented to the Zondo Commission – the I presidency. He went into the National for tougher measures against rogue ongoing inquiry into ‘State Capture’ – to Executive Committee of the African officials and their business allies. be used by law enforcement agencies, National Congress on 29 August facing At the end of the marathon meeting, could lead to the first high-profile arrests a concerted attempt by his predecessor, Ramaphosa broke with tradition and in the coming weeks. Jacob Zuma, to topple him and derail spoke directly to the public in a televised ‘Authorising the commission’s prosecutions of officials suspected of news conference about the governing extensive data to be used as evidence corruption. Zuma had written an open party’s internal deliberations. He was in the prosecution of perpetrators is a letter to Ramaphosa, accusing him of trying to regain public confidence in hugely significant step towards their Property of Asempa Limited hypocrisy and betraying the ANC’s his government’s repeated pledges to successful prosecution,’ said a legal revolutionary credo. prosecute corrupt officials and crack source close to the process. The bid by Zuma, backed by ANC down on the party’s patronage network. Ramaphosa defused the Secretary-General Ace Magashule, The core question is what Ramaphosa confrontation with former President failed dismally with Ramaphosa does with this backing from the ANC Zuma by volunteering to explain to the

Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 3 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration ruling party’s Integrity Commission the guidelines for future internal ANC attempt by the then Public Protector, source of the money for his presidential elections. Busisiwe Mkhwebane, to link him to election campaign in 2017. He also Ramaphosa’s election financing money-laundering, accepting money urged them to draw up clear financing was the subject of an unsuccessful from some dubious sources which could exert undue influence over the President, and misleading Parliament LEADERS LINE UP FOR INTEGRITY TEST (AC Vol 60 No 15). A High Court ruling set aside The duelling duo at the top of the African National Congress – President Cyril Mkhwebane’s report on his campaign Ramaphosa and Secretary General Ace Magashule – are expected before the party’s funding which is now likely to go on Integrity Commission within days to face questions on corruption allegations. appeal to the Constitutional Court. Ramaphosa will be questioned on private donations to his election campaign for the The row over Ramaphosa’s election ANC presidency in 2017 and Magashule on his statement that he would refuse to stand finance has hobbled his efforts to clear aside from his key party position after facing serial allegations of corruption as Premier out corruption in the ANC leadership. of the Free State. Having won the argument at the The commission was set up in 2012 but saw little action during President Jacob NEC, Ramaphosa may choose to delay Zuma’s nine years in office (AC Vol 60 No 11). It came back into play before national his planned cabinet reshuffle. If the anti- elections in May 2019 when it vetted 23 candidates before they were confirmed for corruption campaign picks up pace at last Ramaphosa’s cabinet. Four of them still hold political office. there could be many more vacancies in Deputy President David Mabuza, who has faced various allegations of fraud in the government and in the party structures. past, withdrew from the swearing-in ceremony in parliament at the last minute in May A younger generation of leaders such as 2019 when he was told that he would have to appear before the commission. Justice Minister Ronald Lamola is likely ANC Chair Gwede Mantashe appeared before the Integrity Commission regarding to gain prominence. free security upgrades he accepted for his house from the late Gavin Watson, and his But there are questions about the company Bosasa. Ramaphosa’s son Andile also received funds from a Bosasa company, future of Deputy President David embarrassing his father (AC Vol 59 No 23). Mabuza, whose last-minute decision to The commission played a significant role in weeding out corrupt candidates on the switch his support in December 2017 ANC’s election list which assisted Ramaphosa in making sweeping cabinet changes. was critical in helping Ramaphosa win Candidates the Integrity Commission wanted removed from the party’s list for parliament the ANC Presidency. included former Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane; former Northwest Mabuza was not appointed to premier Supra Mahumapelo; former house chair of the National Assembly Cedric Frolick; the cabinet but served as Deputy and former Postal Services and Telecommunications Minister Siyabonga Cwele. President of the country based at party Serving officials who are not under pressure to step aside include Deputy Finance headquarters, breaking with tradition Minister David Masondo, who is accused of abusing the criminal justice system to get that President and Deputy both operate back at his girlfriend; Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Minister of Small Business Development from the Union Buildings in Pretoria. who has a high court judgment against her; Thandi Modise, National Assembly Speaker This week, the Integrity Commission who was charged with cruelty to animals; Derek Hanekom, who, by his own admission, said that Mabuza, who has kept a low conspired with the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to topple Zuma; deputy public profile as Deputy President, had Minister of Public Service and Administration Sindisiwe Chikunga; and Zizi Kodwa, not been cleared, as was assumed in Deputy Minister of State Security. political circles. Others deemed unsuitable for cabinet appointments by the commission include He made a brief appearance at former State Security Minister Bongani Bongo, who has been charged with bribery and the ANC’s special executive meeting, has stepped aside as an MP; former minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson; Chairperson of confirming that he had been seriously the Portfolio Committee on Sports, Arts and Culture, Beauty Dlulane; Chairperson of the ill for a month. He said he was willing to Portfolio Committee on Small Business, Ruth Bhengu; former State Security Minister appear before the Integrity Commission David Mahlobo; Deputy Minister of Defence, Thabang Makwetla; former Communications and not averse to stepping aside if Minister Nomvula Mokonyane and former ministers Faith Muthambi and Bathabile required to do so. That opens the Dlamini, head of the ANC Women’s League. Former Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba, who question of who might succeed Mabuza. was found, among other things, to have lied in court, resigned in late 2018 facing a raft of The two favourites are Foreign Minister scandals and after appearing before the commission. Naledi Pandor and Minister in the The Integrity Commission is made up of 12 commissioners drawn from across the Presidency, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, ANC and headed by respected veteran George Mashamba, aged 76, who has expressed who has been extending her authority intense frustration in the past with the ANC’s ‘flagrant disregard’ for its 2012 conference, during the pandemic. which set the rules and processes for the commission. Other members include renowned trade unionist and veteran of the 1956 Women’s IMMINENT ARRESTS March Sophie De Bruyn, deputy chair; former secretary of parliament Sindiso Mfenyana; Since June, court actions against British-born political advisor and former detainee Sue Rabkin; medical doctor and former senior officials from three state-owned MP Essop Jassat; former secretary to the late ANC leader Oliver Tambo, Thandi Lujabe- enterprises to recover looted funds Rankoe; former military wing member Len Rasekgatla; human resource professional suggest that high-level arrests could Thukela Cyril Jantjies; former Speaker of the City of Johannesburg Council Nkele Dikeledi be imminent alongside legal efforts Ntingane; and Terrence Tryon, an anti-apartheid activist and former student leader. to retrieve hundreds of millions in In the run-up to the ANC special meeting, suspended former Mayor of eThekwini plundered cash. Zandile Gumede and provincial legislator Mike Mabuyakhulu stood aside as members The targets of these actions of the KwaZulu-Natal legislative assembly pending investigation of corruption allegations include Brian Molefe, Anoj Singh and Property of Asempa Limited by the Integrity Commission. Matshela Koko, the top leadership of Ramaphosa’s spokeswoman Khusela Diko stood aside from her post when it was the electricity utility Eskom which is disclosed that her husband has made huge profits from an unauthorised state tender for accused of siphoning off billions of Covid-19 protective equipment. l rands; Luke Montana, the former Chief Executive Officer of Passenger Rail

4 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

Services South Africa; and Herbert rackets which reached into the and local government elections due in Msagala, senior official of Transnet, the leadership of the ANC. the second quarter of next year. transport utility. Watson, who began each day with Ahead of the NEC meeting, A two-year investigation into a a prayer meeting for the staff and left Ramaphosa’s accusers were either: massive money-laundering scam in the no paper trail, died in a high-speed car those with criminal convictions, town of Vrede in Free State province, as crash widely believed to be suicide, Tony Yengeni; those facing criminal part of the Estina dairy project, could while he was en route to an inquiry into charges, Andile Lungisa; those facing now lead to a major trial. The NPA has his tax affairs. serial corruption allegations, Nomvula confirmed that a high-profile arrest is Mokonyane; or those aligned with the expected before the end of this month. CYRIL’S EDICT anti-Ramaphosa camp, Mzwandile Magashule, widely regarded as the In an unprecedented move, Ramaphosa Masina, Carl Niehaus and Kebby leader of the anti-Ramaphosa faction, sent a seven-page letter to all ANC Maphatsoe. was Premier of Free State at the time of members ahead of the special meeting Such was the support for him at the 220 million rand (US$12m) fraud. of the ANC executive on 29-30 August, the NEC that Ramaphosa cursorily He and his family are facing multiple going over the heads of the party’s top dismissed Zuma’s open letter, saying he allegations. decision-making bodies (AC Vol 61 No had no intention of replying to it. The oft-extended commission 17). Ramaphosa said that party officials Party leaders such as ANC chair headed by deputy Chief Justice and their families doing corrupt Gwede Mantashe won the day by Raymond Zondo has amassed a huge business with the government had portraying Zuma’s letter as an act of bank of evidence over nearly two years betrayed the ANC. treachery which broke the taboo on detailing mega-corruption by two From now on party members predecessors publicly attacking the politically-connected families estimated accused of corruption must stand back incumbent, amounting to an attack on to have cost the country more than from positions in government and the ANC itself. R1 trillion ($58bn) in public funds. state bodies pending their appearance ‘It is not done because there is The Gupta brothers – Atul, Ajay and before the Integrity Commission and if a particular relationship between a Rajesh – fled toIndia via their base in they are unable to provide satisfactory successor and a predecessor… and Dubai when they saw the net closing on explanations they must face disciplinary we have a responsibility to kill this their business empire built during Zuma’s or prosecutorial processes. But the new choreographed attack on the President,’ nine years in office. The NPA, headed by measures don’t include an onus on the said Mantashe, a political supporter Shamila Batohi, has begun proceedings ANC to report members suspected of of Ramaphosa but still sceptical of his to extradite the Guptas from India and corruption to the police. economic strategy. the United Arab Emirates. The Integrity Commission has in the The ANC Veterans’ League did not The other family is the Watson past led to senior officials withdrawing offer a collective response to the Zuma brothers whose patriarch, the late Gavin from candidacy for elections and for letter before it hit social media but its Watson, built an empire on the back availability for cabinet positions (see President, Snuki Zikalala, called it of state tenders and a long-standing box). But its powers are not binding. ‘extraordinary, unprecedented and relationship with the ANC dating back Some ANC leaders who were not cleared deeply disturbing’, amounting to a bid to the apartheid era, when the family by the commission have continued to at regime change. defied race segregation laws to support serve in senior party positions and as It was presenting ‘the ANC President the then banned organisation. members of Parliament. as an illegitimate leader of our Watson’s chief operating officer, Zuma’s attempt to weaken movement,’ said Zikalala. The letter had Angelo Agrizzi, gave evidence against Ramaphosa’s leadership backfiredno official status until endorsed by ANC the boss before the Zondo Commission spectacularly. Now, Ramaphosa has regions and was likely to be withdrawn, which exposed an empire based on some political space ahead of the ANC’s another humiliation for Zuma and his political ties, bribes and protection National Governing Council conference supporters. l MALAWI He repeated the campaign pledges of his ‘Super Hi5 Agenda’ which promises Shaky start for the new broom reforms across the entire public sector and cheaper inputs for farmers. How he will square the circle of greatly reduced economic resources with new jobs and President Chakwera’s fight against corruption is popular but concerns are higher subsidies is yet to become clear. growing about nepotism and schisms in his coalition Like other leaders, Chakwera is struggling with the social and economic consequences of the coronavirus he first 60 days of office have not Striking an optimistic note under the pandemic. Last month he beat a been kind to President Lazarus title ‘Restoring warmth to the heart of humiliating retreat before the combined T Chakwera. Swept into office on Africa’ he said, ‘You may have heard forces of the Roman Catholic Church a wave of campaign promises of clean it that Malawi is a poor country, but and the Church of Central African government and the creation of a we must reject this lie,’ as he blamed Presbyterian (CCAP) and withdrew the million jobs, he has been battling to past governments for plundering the upper limit of 10 persons for church keep to his programme in the face of country. Lauding the judiciary for how congregations. The clerics had accused Property of Asempa Limited disastrous economic indicators. it handled the disputed 2019 election, him of failing to consult. Opening parliament on 4 September he promised to strengthen the law by He is also accused of favouring the new head of state reiterated training more magistrates and even people from his own, Chewa, ethnicity his pledge to create 1 million jobs, suggested a new judicial building next in making public appointments (AC Vol instituting a National Youth Service. to parliament. 61 No 14). At about 35% Chewa are

Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 5 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration the largest ethnic group in Malawi, Electricity Supply Commission of The President has also re-appointed followed at 19% by the Lomwe, which Malawi, was also picked up, along General Vincent Nundwe two months was the ethnic group of ex-President with ESCOM officials over another after he was fired by President Peter Mutharika, who lost to Chakwera procurement scandal involving MK4bn. Mutharika, saying he was ‘correcting a in the presidential election. Another Chief Executive, Chris wrong’ (AC Vol 61 No 7). Nundwe was Mutharika had become increasingly Chisoni, of the National Higher christened the ‘people’s general’ for unpopular and weighed down with Education Loans Board, has been trying to prevent security force violence accusations of corruption, while arrested for giving an MK18m contract against demonstrators. Chakwera and his running mate Saulos to his wife. Police investigators are State House insiders say that the Chilima offered an alternative, more investigating claims that he also created President is thinking ahead to the 2025 inclusive and honestly run Malawi. 200 ‘ghost’ students which obtained election and has set up an 11-strong Chakwera is taking on the former loans from the board. intelligence unit to monitor the loyalty ruling Democratic Progressive Party The latest addition to the arrest and activities of ministers, government (DPP), accusing the Mutharika list is the Malawi Communications officials and his Tonse Alliance partner administration of looting 1.3 trillion Regulatory Authority (MACRA) boss Chilima’s United Transformation kwacha (US$1.8 billion) during its six Geodfrey Itaye who is being accused Movement (UTM). years in power. of buying MK100m worth of DPP- On a leaked recording of what is emblazoned batik cloth using public believed to be the group’s first meeting INVESTIGATIONS funds and various deals including speakers can be heard describing The authorities are arresting DPP giving contracts to his family worth as their first priority to locate ‘anti- officials and Mutharika aides over their US$150,000. Chakwera’ individuals in government. connections to multi-billion-kwacha Corruption under the DPP was Now it is in office, the Tonse Alliance deals, and other DPP officials over widely reported, but it is the impunity is experiencing strain. Chilima, and his political violence and connections to that has shocked Malawians still technocratic allies, have been working the alleged murder of Anti-Corruption recovering from the 2013 ‘Cashgate’ on reforms to the public sector, while Bureau (ACB) officer Issa Njaunju (AC scandal (AC Vol 54 No 24). ACB head Chakwera has been concentrating on Vol 57 No 16). Reyneck Matemba has said that the maintaining public support. Insiders say Mutharika was warned DPP’s looting could make Cashgate But each man’s supporters claim that corruption could cost him his look like child’s play, although some they are undermining each other. presidency but he found those closest important Cashgate prosecutions have Chilima, having been vice-president to him too hard to control. The ex- yet to be heard. under Mutharika before he defected, President has been questioned by police Although the prosecutions have cannot run for a third term in that role. about a MK5bn ($7m) duty-free cement been playing to Chakwera’s advantage, Chakwera has indicated that it is too import scheme, which is claimed to have he has been losing support over the early to talk of 2025, only saying he is involved his wife Gertrude Maseko, his appointment of fellow Chewa to high sure he will not run for a third term. stepson Tadikila Mafubza, his personal positions. These include seven cabinet Tensions arose over the issue during the bodyguard Norman Chisale and his ministers, the Inspector-General of election campaign (AC Vol 61 No 12). Chief of Staff, Peter Mukhito. Police, the presidential chief of staff, Meanwhile, the MCP and UTM are Businessman Shaffe Chunara and several permanent secretaries and both increasing their parliamentary was charged with fraud and money- advisors at government departments. numbers thanks to defections from the laundering in July in connection with His son-in-law, Sean Tsanzo DPP and the United Democratic Front that case and accused of importing Kampondeni, is his executive assistant (UDF). The two coalition partners will 800,000 bags of cement from Zambia and communications director. His compete with each other at several by- and Zimbabwe free of taxes by using cabinet now includes his party deputy elections caused by defecting MPs. the president’s duty-free privileges. Sidik Mia and his wife Abida; they The coalition’s solidity is at stake. If Mutharika has denied any connection bankrolled the election campaign of the the President and VP campaign against to the affair. Malawi Congress Party. The new Labour each other, they will dash the hopes of a Sources close to the prosecutors Minister, Ken Kandodo, who served long-term merger between Chakwera’s say the ex-president’s wife and stepson as finance minister under President MCP and Chilima’s UTM. used the cement to build apartments in Bingu wa Mutharika and as Defence Lilongwe’s suburbs and a four-storey Minister under President Joyce Banda, COVID CONFUSION building near Kamuzu Central Hospital is a grand nephew of MCP founder and The climbdown over maximum church in the city. The ACB has frozen the ex- the country’s first president, Hastings congregations was worsened by the fact head of state’s joint accounts and that Kamuzu Banda. Kandodo’s sister that new Attorney General, Chikosa of Chisale, who has been arrested on Khumbize is the new health minister. Silungwe, a bright young technocrat, a charge of attempted murder. There The cabinet also includes a brother distanced himself from the new rules are allegations that he engineered the and sister-in-law, Information Minister and told media to ask the health murder of Njaunju. Gospel Kazako and Agnes Nkusa minister. The DPP complains of political Nkhoma, deputy agriculture minister. Nor did it help the President’s persecution. But the prosecutors are Chakwera defends the appointments as profile on Covid-19 that he attended a working systematically through a long based on merit but he has added he will funeral of one of the party’s veterans, list of cases such as the MK600m oil review the cabinet in six months’ time Mai Roseby Dinala, where over 2,000 deal at the Malawi Energy Regulatory and sack poor performers. people mingled freely. Funerals are

Authority. That has led to the arrest Young Malawians eager for supposed to be limited to 50 mourners. Property of Asempa Limited of a former executive assistant to Chakwera to make good on his promise Enforcement of the new rules, apart Mutharika, Collins Magalasi, who was about jobs are getting sceptical. On from the churches, is weak. During the the MERA Chief Executive. social media, Chakwera’s appointments election campaign the Tonse Alliance Electoral Commissioner Jean are mocked as the ‘one million retirees rejected Mutharika’s proposal for a Mathanga, who once chaired the back to work’ initiative. lockdown in April.

6 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

The President has announced the moving freely through the country, wave of demonstrations in Lilongwe re-opening of schools but parents defying advice on limiting travel. against rules to register their vehicles, have not been consulted. Teachers Places such as Mzuzu in the north wear helmets and have licences. Protests are demanding a risk allowance and are awaiting a promised oxygen- are expected should the government personal protection equipment, or manufacturing facility which can proceed with more restrictions on they will not return to classrooms. supply hospitals. markets over social distancing. With teachers making up 30% of the Some 4,000 young people who were Much will depend on how Chakwera 170,000-strong civil service, it is hard promised employment as interns in reacts after these early missteps to see how the government can afford government forced another U-turn after amid the deepening economic woes these demands. threatening to take to the streets if they caused by the pandemic. Popular Covid-19 has cost about 273,000 could not resume work. The government support for prosecutions against the jobs and financial losses throughout had said they would go back in October. former government for corruption could the economy. Poor communications and Now, Labour Minister Kandodo says it prove short-lived without progress politicians’ hypocrisy are undermining will be this month. on plans to alleviate the health and new public health rules. Ministers are Motorcycle taxis opened the first jobs crises. l

NIGERIA who chairs the government’s Economic Sustainability Committee, launched the Building back bigger country’s ‘Bounce Back’ plan in June for a post-pandemic economic reset. Its focus on investing in national production, giving strong incentives for Planning to spend over 20 billion dollars on grand projects, the Buhari government companies to hire workers, and radical is raising tariffs and tolls as well as taking on more debt reform of the oil and gas industry could drive structural change if the government can summon the political any Nigerians are disappointed than in 2018 and the highest for a will to implement it. Buhari’s new chief that, as President Muhammadu decade. Officials admit that the total of staff, Ibrahim Gambari, has been M Buhari is a year into his second could hit 33% by the end of the year. working on another economic plan term, he has not done more to halt the More worrying still are the combined which closely reflect the President’s scourge of corrupt trading deals and under-employment and unemployment priorities, we hear (AC Vol 61 No 12). It build up national oil production and figures, covering 57% of people of is due to be launched later this month. increase its value. working age. Alongside the patterns of The World Bank has approved a armed clashes in many northern states LONG VIEW $750 million loan to the power sector and rising crime rates in the south, the Buhari’s economic views have changed but the expansion will push up the latest data show how economic hardship little since he set them out as military retail price of power as generating and is fuelling insecurity. leader in 1984-5: an over-arching role distribution negotiate new tariffs. Buhari’s government, like its for the state; priority for manufacturing For many, the key indicator is that predecessors, has an abundance of well- and agro-allied processing; government unemployment has shot up to 27% of presented strategies to restructure the support for farmers; strengthening working age people, four points higher economy. Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, of the energy sector, upstream and

THE GOVERNMENT’S PROJECTS TEAM

Hadi Sirika, Minister of Aviation: close to President Muhammadu Buhari, Sirika is seen as a professional who has tackled some of the aviation industry’s multiple problems in Nigeria on regulations, security and cost structure. His priority now is to support the national industry as it navigates of the pandemic-induced slowdown. Internal flights have been cut by over half. Strengthening national and regional air links are key to Buhari’s development planning (AC Vol 61 No 9). Rotimi Amaechi, Transport Minister and former governor of Rivers State: a shrewd politician who has worked his way up the ranks since the return civilian rule in 1999. He is keen to launch himself onto the presidential track in 2023, either as candidate or running mate. His commissioning of roads, railways, stations and other infrastructure across the country will help those ambitions (AC Vol 61 No 17). Babatunde Fashola, Minister of Works and Housing and former governor of Lagos State: Promoted as chief of a super-ministry of power, works and housing, Fashola underwhelmed in President Buhari’s first term. Taking on the vested interests in the power industry was more than a full-time job. But his replacement in power, Saleh Mamman, has made still less progress (AC Vol 61 No 12). That is why President Buhari despatched his late chief of staff Abba Kyari to negotiate the Siemens deal at the company’s headquarters in Germany. Fashola has yet to make his mark in Buhari’s second term: trying to meet the goal of 300,000 new homes a year will be a critical test. Godwin Emefiele, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and former managing director of Zenith Bank: Under President Buhari and Emefiele, the central bank has become an activist player in the economy as well as a tougher regulator (AC Vol 60 No 13). The first two-term bank governor since the 1980s, Emefiele has become, along with Buhari, the strongest advocate of defending the naira

and the country’s complex multi-tier exchange rate. This year’s oil price crash has forced a gradual depreciation of the naira and the Property of Asempa Limited abandonment of fuel subsidies. Emefiele also styles himself as a development economist, arguing that the role of Nigeria’s central bank must be to direct credit to areas of high growth and potential to create jobs; that is, a mix of agriculture, agro-allied processing and industrial projects as well as showing strong support for the infrastructure drive. Emefiele is expected to lead an aggressive borrowing programme next year in support of the government US$20 billion project target. l

Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 7 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration downstream; completion of large-scale another Eurobond next year. has started on fewer than a third. road, rail, port and water supply projects. In January, Buhari said over 35 The government has also been In power for just over five years, roads would be completed this year. negotiating with Saudi Arabia to Buhari is the second longest-serving But the previous month, he signed rehabilitate the four state-owned civilian president in Nigeria’s history. the 2020 budget with 37bn naira refineries with a capacity of 450,000 But few of his economic aims have been (US$95.9m) approved for renovating b/d (AC Vol 61 No 10). achieved. For years, Africa’s largest the federal parliament, slightly over the This month, BUA Group, belonging economy has spent only around 5% of N36.6n earmarked for fixing federal to Dangote’s rival and fellow Kano- its GDP on infrastructure. Buhari now roads. In August, Works and Housing born billionaire Abdulsamad Rabiu, aims to spend $20 billion over the Minister Babatunde Fashola disclosed announced a deal, alongside President next decade, though even that plan is that contractors are owed billions of Emmanuel Macron, with France’s well below investment levels in peer naira, announcing plans to reintroduce Axens to build a 200,000 b/d refinery economies in Asia and Latin America. road tolls, discontinued in 2004, to in Akwa Ibom. Nigeria’s rail network, a colonial raise revenue. Central Bank governor Buhari is determined to relaunch relic, is the biggest beneficiary of this Godwin Emefiele says a N5 trillion the moribund Ajaokuta steel mills, new focus. Most of the work on the ($39.4bn) infrastructure development yet to produce a single steel bar since Abuja-Kaduna line had been undertaken company is in the works. Russian engineers began work on it by President Goodluck Jonathan’s The government is also tapping in the mid-1980s. The railway line government. It was commissioned into a N162bn ($400m) Sukuk meant to connect the mills to iron ore under Buhari, whose substantial work bond financing and Chinese loans deposits at nearby Itakpe and with the on the Abuja city metro led to the for infrastructure, and trying to Warri ports in the Niger Delta, is to be launch of its first phase in 2018. galvanise more commercial funding. commissioned this year. There is a more With eyes on 2023, Transport It’s introducing a tax credit system to viable project for a railway between the Minister Rotimi Amaechi has secured encourage companies to invest in roads. liquefied gas terminal on Bonny Island, a deal, said to be worth $50m – offered The reach of Aliko Dangote, with the oil capital of Port Harcourt. gratis by Chinese state contractors – for dominant in cement production and In 1972, the Mambilla power station a University of Transport in Buhari’s agribusiness, is to extend to heavy was initiated as part of post-civil war hometown of Daura. Currying favour industry, with the launch a 650,000 reconstruction. The $5.8bn project with with Buhari might help Amaechi’s own barrel-a-day refinery, fertiliser and a capacity of 3,050MW remains far presidential plans. petrochemicals plant in Lagos state from completion. A smaller power plant Amaechi has repeatedly promised early next year. A new port is under in the same state of Taraba in north- imminent launch dates for the Lagos- construction in a nearby free trade eastern Nigeria, the 40MW Kashimbila Ibadan and Itakpe-Warri lines and they zone, financed under a $630m scheme project has been completed but hasn’t are due to start this year. for a 45-year concession agreement with been hooked up to the national grid yet. But work has stalled on the Second China Harbour Engineering Company. An electrification road-map Niger Bridge, part-financed by a $311m with Germany’s Siemens is to be tranche of the loot stashed in Europe by REFINERIES implemented in three phases up to late military leader Sani Abacha which If these projects pan out, Nigeria could 2025: it will boost Nigeria’s transmission has been returned. His stolen millions graduate from a position where the state capacity to 25,000MW. For now, the are also supposed to finance expressways oil company operates four sporadically country could produce 13,000MW cutting through major cities in the south- functioning refineries to becoming but average output is under 5,000MW west and north-west. Financing other one of the world’s biggest exporters of because of unreliable transmission. The mega projects will be problematic. petroleum products. World Bank has approved a $750m loan In the first quarter of 2020, Nigeria currently consumes to the power sector but the expansion almost all state revenue went towards around 500,000 barrels every day. will push up the retail price of power servicing debt. However, money It has approved licences for over three as generating and distribution negotiate markets still expect Nigeria to float dozen modular refineries, though work new tariffs. l

ETHIOPIA by parliament to extend all regional government terms of office beyond Regions take on the centre their five-year limit after elections planned for August were delayed by Covid-19. Yet intervening to prevent Tigray carrying out the poll would carry enormous risks for Abiy. With mass protests and unofficial elections, oppositionists in Oromia and Tigray The Tigrayan People’s Liberation are demanding the federal system be redrawn Front (TPLF), once the dominant power in the now defunct ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary lthough Prime Minister Abiy In one of the starkest illustrations of Democratic Front, refused to join Abiy’s Ahmed’s government says it is the divisions, Tigray went ahead with its new ruling national party, the Prosperity trying to unite a divided Ethiopia, own provincial elections on 9 September, Party, and is seen by many to be

A Property of Asempa Limited its opponents argue it is dismantling the defying Abiy. The National Electoral presiding over a Tigrayan drift towards multinational federation and replacing Board of Ethiopia has previously stated outright secession, which is legal under it with centralised authority. Furious it is the only body constitutionally Ethiopia’s federal constitution. reactions to the centralisation are, authorised to run elections. Tigrayan, Oromo and other critics in turn, speeding up the process of The federal government opposes the claim Abiy is repressing civil rights disintegration. poll because it defies a June decision and stifling the opposition in a manner

8 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration little different from the EPRDF, and not reaction is increasing anger and bringing ongoing violence, while Abiy is leaning allowing sufficient freedom to ethno- the Oromo together in resistance, much on centralisation because he does not nationalist forces, which are bursting as it did in 2015 when the protests that know how to or does not want to satisfy out in several parts of the country. paved the way for Abiy to take power ethno-nationalist demands. There has been an angry response began in earnest. In Tigray, Abiy risks appearing to Abiy in parts of Oromia region and in The situation is also having a weak if he fails to intervene to defend Wolayta Zone in the Southern Nations negative economic effect amid the federal authority, but any punitive federal state, where activists want a Covid-19 pandemic, contributing to action would only increase secessionist regional state to be created for the an increased annual inflation rate of sentiment, which is already strong. One Wolayta people. If the Tigray regional around 20%, especially in the capital, opposition party is explicitly pushing elections seem to threaten the state, since Addis Ababa is surrounded by for independence. the situation in Oromia, Abiy’s home Oromia and protests often close roads, An additional complicating factor is region, is arguably even more critical. halting distribution of goods and that Amhara region claims some areas Protests in Oromia against Abiy’s causing shortages. of Tigray, known as Raya and Wolkait, leadership began months ago, although Unless the government starts making a peaceful Tigrayan exit from anger had been building for two years listening and changes tack, further the federation highly unlikely. as demands for genuine autonomy, deadly inter-communal violence could greater language rights, and more follow. Many opposition supporters SOUTHERN ISSUES benefits from Addis Ababa were ignored in Oromia believe – against official The Southern Nations government’s by the federal government. protestations – that Abiy’s government failure to address the statehood demand is shifting towards a modern version of of Wolayta people and the forceful STATE RETALIATION the pre-1974 imperial system when the intervention of the federal government Violent protests in early July, triggered Amhara language, culture, and elite into Wolayta Zone in mid-August to by the unsolved murder of singer predominated. silence protesters is another indication Hachalu Hundessa, saw Oromo groups Oromo protesters believe that of where the country is heading. kill local minorities and burn their Amhara today in Oromia – who are often The arrest of the senior zonal property and united Oromo people. called ‘neftegna’ (or ‘neo-neftegna’), a officials and killing of dozens of The federal and Oromia governments term that literally referred to those protesters intensified local anger. then conducted mass arrests, including who bore arms in the imperial era – are Unless the statehood demand is influential politicians such as former supporters of Abiy’s centralising plans, addressed quickly, anger may turn into activist Jawar Mohammed who were or working with his Prosperity Party to violence if they begin to see peaceful criticising Abiy’s leadership, and Oromo oppress locals. These suspicions led to pursuit of their demands as pointless. journalists who published damning killings of Amhara by Oromo groups in That was the pattern in nearby Sidama reports (AC Vol 61 No 15). the region in July. Zone, which was eventually granted a State security forces responded to Those attacks led to outrage and referendum on regional statehood after further protests in mid-August, this increased activism by opponents of the months of delays and protests, some of time triggered by Jawar’s brief ill-health multinational federal system. They say them deadly, and has now become the in jail, with a wave of violence, killing the system that the TPLF was influential tenth regional state in the federation. elders, religious leaders, women, and in instituting in the early 1990s has The question of autonomy is not, youths, and arresting so many they had hardened ethnic identities and divided however, going to end in Wolayta. to be detained in schools, warehouses Ethiopians. Other Southern Nations zones are and even the offices of opposition It’s far from clear how to bring the two already demanding statehood. The parties in Gimbi town. camps together given the entrenched government’s response will be another The brutality of the government’s dispute, level of political toxicity, and determinant of peaceful coexistence

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Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 9 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration within the federation. least twice as many as usual, require Covid-19 in early April. A decision to The Covid-19 pandemic is both the nutritional support. lift it may well be an indicator that the backdrop to and a key factor in the Many Ethiopians believe that the Prosperity Party favours an election political turbulence. government is exploiting the pandemic. relatively soon. In July, it was decided Although many Ethiopians are not People in parts of Oromia wear face that an election would be held nine convinced of the veracity of the infection masks to avoid being beaten up by the to 12 months after health authorities data the government is providing, or security forces and take them off when decide the pandemic is controlled. the virus’s threat to them, the country the police are gone. Others think that Either way, prospects do not look is still being affected by its economic the government is deliberately infecting good. With their leaders on trial, many impact, and increased inflation and critics with the virus, especially in Oromo will reject an election, but if unemployment increase resentment of police stations. there is further delay it will add fuel the government. For many, the situation The government is due to decide to the ethno-nationalists’ claims that has made it difficult to survive. An whether to extend the State of Abiy is using the pandemic to remake estimated 20 million Ethiopians, at Emergency brought in to combat Ethiopia’s fragile constitutional order. l BURKINA FASO the man who took over the party when Compaoré left, also resigned declaring Campaigning as jihadists advance that Komboïgo was not fit for office. Koné is in the camp of another former pillar of the Compaoré days, Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo. Nicknamed The election contest is a lively affair between elite rivals but none of them has a KADO, Ouédraogo served as prime clear plan to defeat the armed insurgents that have cut across the country minister at the turn of the century and from 2012 to 2016 was president urkina Faso is holding presidential who likes to lend his private jet of the Ecowas Commission (AC Vol 60 and parliamentary elections on to heads of state like Kaboré and No 21). On returning to Burkina Faso, B 22 November, although many Liberian President George Weah Ouédraogo and Komboïgo fought a parts of the country are unlikely to (AC Vol 59 No 20). Kaboré is also close bitter battle for supremacy in the CDP, participate because the safety of polling to leading business magnate Mahamadi which the latter won. KADO went on to booths cannot be guaranteed. In spite Sawadogo, nicknamed ‘Khadafi’.create his own party, Agir Ensemble. of the existential threat to the state and Campaign communications are in Among the six others now in this the nation, the candidates have little to the capable hands of the hyperactive pact with Diabré and Komboïgo are, say about what to do about the jihadist Cameroon-born journalist Thierry Hot. ironically, KADO and a former foreign problem and line up uncritically behind minister, Ablassé Ouédraogo (AC the security forces. SLIM CHANCE Vol 56 No 4), who earned all-round The ruling Mouvement du peuple pour Kaboré’s chances of outright victory condemnation during the 2015 campaign le progrès (MPP) decided to no great in the first round are slim because after he had claimed that being Mossi surprise in July to declare the president, two major political parties that were and Muslim should be sufficient to Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, its formerly hostile to each other and are qualify for the job of head of state. While candidate for the forthcoming poll. now both opposed to the MPP have the first is arguably true, the second will But winning the acclamation of 4,000 joined forces. They are the traditional not wash in a country where 40% of the party faithful will do little to assure opposition party Union pour le progrès population goes to church. victory even though he easily cleared et le changement (UPC) led by Zéphirin A rather more seriously minded the 50% threshold in 2015 and so Diabré, who came second to Kaboré in outsider – and another 18 August avoided a second round. He faces a 2015, and the former ruling party, the signatory – fancies his chances: former much tougher challenge this time. Congrès pour la démocratie et le progrès, culture minister Tahirou Barry, a young Leading contenders for the the vehicle of ex-President Compaoré, and charismatic member of parliament. presidency in November include allies who was swept from power in an ‘Arab But Barry shares a problem that has and enemies of Blaise Compaoré, the spring’ style mass uprising in 2014. also bedevilled Diabré, the person most president ousted in 2014. And then Together with 21 other parties and pundits believe would be the obvious there’s the relentless march of the eight presidential candidates (six of choice for the opposition to rally around armed Islamists and the issue of the whom have considerable public profile in a second round: he is not Mossi. Diabré massacres of Fulani (or Peuhl) by the and following) the opposition parties is Bissa and Barry is ethnically Fulani (or armed forces. put their signatures to an electoral pact Peuhl), the group simplistically blamed The MPP projects a sense of on 18 August to vote for whichever by ‘the street’ for the jihadist violence unity. Kaboré’s top advisor Clément alternative candidate to Kaboré makes sweeping the region. Pengwende Sawadogo runs the party it to the second round. This is likely to Another signatory to the 18 August and has also been in charge of the ailing be either the UPC’s Diabré or the CDP pact is Yacouba Isaac Zida, the former flag carrier Air Burkina since January. candidate Eddie Komboïgo, a close number two in the now-disbanded Alassane Bala Sakandé is another ally of Compaoré. It is assumed that presidential guard of ex-President stalwart who combines his position Compaoré picked the candidate from Compaoré and the first to grab the on the party’s national executive with his villa in Abidjan where he is believed reins of power in the chaotic aftermath being Speaker of parliament. to continue to control the party. of Compaoré’s departure (AC Vol 55 Property of Asempa Limited Kaboré’s war chest is likely to be Komboïgo is a controversial figure No 2). Zida was sacked from the army discreetly filled by business friends in the CDP. The scandal-ridden former three years ago and lives in Canada. He like Mahamadou Bonkoungou, mayor of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso’s announced his intention of running for the billionaire boss of the EBOMAF second city, Salia Sanou, left the CDP in office months ago but has not been seen regional civil engineering empire a huff over the pick, and Léonce Koné, in the country. Zida has some powerful

10 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration allies, not least among them Colonel The European Union wants to of the army. The danger is that they can Auguste Denise Barry, whom the MPP massively increase its military aid increase the risks of vigilante justice and government sidelined on suspicion without being implicated in ethnic local score-settling. of fomenting a coup, and Augustin violence, but its calls for justice for the Insecurity has made at least five Loada, former head of the government victims of massacres fall on deaf ears. regions in the country unsafe for watchdog the Centre pour la Gouvernance Even the mildest criticism of the FDS is either electoral campaigning or voting, Démocratique (CGD – AC Vol 59 No 5). now considered treason and is met with including the region where Djibo is The existence of the opposition howls of outrage on social media. The located and also the East, the Sahel pact will surely rattle the MPP but it government takes advantage of this by Region, the densely populated Boucle du will count on the traditional Mossi preventing all independent reporting of Mouhoun bordering Mali and the border monarchy and its chiefs, who usually military operations (AC Vol 60 No 13). area with Côte d’Ivoire, the north of instruct their subjects on how to vote President Kaboré had visited Djibo which has recorded insurgent attacks (AC Vol 60 No 11). only three weeks before the HRW report recently (AC Vol 61 No 14). came out. He praised the troops and CRISIS made oblique remarks about avoiding VOTE LAW All this plays out against a backdrop stigmatising certain groups. He also It is hard to see how elections can be of an escalating military and promised that Djibo, isolated from held under these circumstances and humanitarian crisis. Three jihadist the country by armed jihadist actions, whether the political class and its groups have caused the displacement of would see military reinforcements. system of government has what it takes an estimated one million Burkinabè this The violence now comes from four to deal with the jihadist threat. year and the deaths of 163 members of sides: jihadist groups, security forces, the Both these issues forcefully came to the security forces and 463 civilians. self-styled self-defence groups Koglwéogo, the fore on 25 August, when parliament The bodies of 180 of these civilians, all which are undisciplined militias, and approved modifications to the male, were found in mass graves around the newly formed Volontaires pour la electoral law whereby elections would the northern town of Djibo, home of défense de la patrie, who risk acting proceed where polling was possible. Burkina Faso’s home-grown jihadist the same way (AC Vol 60 No 21). The The proposed modifications have group Ansaroul Islam, which aligned VDP concept was pushed hard by caused outrage, with commentators itself later with Amadou Koufa’s Front defence minister Chérif Moumina Sy, a saying the law effectively means giving de Libération du Macina (AC Vol 58 No former journalist and now presidential up sovereignty over its own territory 6). A Human Rights Watch report in loyalist, and unanimously approved by and reduces the elections themselves July accused the national army, the parliament last January. VDP groups to something that happens ‘between Forces de défense et de sécurité (FDS), of receive two weeks’ training to protect Ouagadougou and Bobo Dioulasso’, the murdering them. residential areas and work in support country’s two main cities. l

COVID-19 with a remarkable 85% proving to be asymptomatic. Although there has been First the good news... a small increase in cases in North Africa, across the continent as a whole, cases declined 14% a week through August.

Although Africa may escape the worst of the health emergency, concern is TRADE KICK-START mounting about its effects on economies and public services Resurrecting economies is of course difficult when you hold very few economic trump cards and depend on s Africa cautiously welcomes the Supplies Agency (Kemsa) at the others to buy your primary products positive news that it looks like it centre of an alleged US$400 million (AC Vol 61 No 17). So while public Awill escape the worst ravages of scandal that has prompted strikes health officials are still calling for Covid-19 infections, it is also having at ill-equipped hospitals, and street extreme care, the business-minded to deal with the fallout of several protests. There have been further cases are desperately trying to kick-start revelations of corruption among officials in South Africa, Nigeria and Uganda, international trade. in their handling of Covid-19 funds. all relating to greedy officials trying to Ghana’s Kotoka Airport opened to There were demonstrations in a enrich themselves (AC Vol 61 No 17). international flights on 2 September, number of countries last week about Asked for his reaction to the reports, and Nigeria reopened Lagos and Abuja Covid-19 corruption. In Zimbabwe, John Nkengasong, Director of the on 5 September. In Nigeria, only a Obadiah Moyo, the sacked Minister of Africa Centres for Disease Control (CDC), reduced number of flights are allowed, Health and Child Welfare, awaits trial was emphatic: ‘Any corrupt practice is to with a total cap of 1,280 international on Covid-related corruption charges. be condemned. You know, it is a human passengers allowed to land at these In Somalia, four health officials have rights issue. Anything that impedes the two airports each day. No incoming already been jailed for misappropriating saving of lives is an abuse of human flight can carry more than 200 funds. In Kenya, where 300,000 people rights. History should judge very harshly passengers, though outbound aircraft have lost their jobs because of the those who abuse their office.’ have no such restriction on numbers. virus, civil society activity has grown Beyond this regrettable sidebar, the But the news comes with complexities: sufficiently to persuade President main focus is turning towards trying to both countries require arriving travellers Property of Asempa Limited Uhuru Kenyatta to order the Ministry of rebuild economies and strategise how to to have obtained a PCR negative Health to publish details of all contracts share in the anticipated vaccine roll-out. Covid-19 test prior to departure, and issued and sums paid out. The current situation is that there while Ghana then undertakes a further Particular attention will be paid have been just under 1.3m positive test on all passengers prior to them to the activities of the Kenya Medical cases identified on the continent collecting their baggage, Nigeria asks

Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 11 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration visitors to isolate for seven days and out a vaccine to Africa’s people, these binding agreements by 18 September, then take a second PCR test before questions hold huge implications. and upfront financial contributions venturing out. have to be paid by no later than 9 The difference in requirements by VACCINE CASH October. Negotiations are also in play countries is also a big problem at land So far, the WHO, Gavi – the vaccine with Afreximbank to develop additional borders. Africa CDC, which is trying alliance – and the Coalition for financial instruments as required. to see if it can use its African Union Epidemic Preparedness Innovations And finally, the determination roots to harmonise the process, assesses (CEPI), which is coordinating Covax, of the United States to leave the that 25 countries have pre-departure the vaccine pillar of the international WHO, which remains very much requirements for visitors coming into response to Covid-19, have only the lead organisation in the fight their airports, and six are testing raised about $700m of the anticipated against Covid-19 for everyone else, passengers on arrival. ‘We have a $2 billion required. The initiative aims took a further twist last week when it problem to solve here,’ says Nkengasong. to secure around 220m doses of vaccine announced that it would not be paying ‘There has to be a harmonisation to for the continent, once it has been its back-dated dues to the organisation. enable reciprocal recognition of testing licensed and approved. Under a 1948 joint resolution of the and of certification between countries African nations are coalescing in the US Congress, Trump had to give one whether by land, air, or sea.’ hope of finding an equitable means to year’s notice of a withdrawal and is At their press conferences last week, deliver vaccines for everyone. The Covax required to pay what Washington owes both the World Health Organization initiative works with the participation of for the organisation’s current fiscal year and Africa CDC played strongly on the high, middle and low-income countries, (AC Vol 61 No 10). Instead, a junior importance of ensuring Africa was well- all working together to secure a State Department employee was sent placed in the global process when and if highly competitive price by making an out to announce that the $18m owed a vaccine is found. The big difficulty at Advance Market Commitment. Already for financial year 2019 and $62m for the moment is the unknown form any eight countries in Africa have agreed to financial year 2020 would be directed vaccine might take. Will it be a single self-finance their vaccine needs through ‘to pay the regular UN assessment’. shot, or two shots? How often will it the facility. The other 46 countries In response, several eminent US lawyers need repeating? Will it be like a flu virus will be eligible for support. Vital dates took to Twitter to denounce what was vaccine, given annually and altered to for the initiative are coming up in the seen as an unethical and illegal act. reflect the anticipated mutations? Given next two weeks: expressions of interest The US has also stated that it will not the logistic complexities of rolling in participation need to be turned into be involved with the Covax initiative. l Property of Asempa Limited

12 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

Zitto Kabwe’s opposition Alliance for Privinvest applied – unsuccessfully POINTERS Change and Transparency–Wazalendo eventually – for the case to be heard in says that out of the 169 candidates fielded, Switzerland in what was widely seen as a only 104 have been confirmed by the NEC. delaying tactic which Credit Suisse did not In Zanzibar, where ex-members of the Civic approve of. Botswana/EU United Front merged with ACT-W only 14 Guebuza’s eldest son Ndambi – who LISTING REPUTATIONS candidates have been short-listed out of has also been named in the suit as a third n The listing of Botswana in February 50 nominees (AC Vol 61 No 3). party – is being held along with 17 senior on the European Union’s list of countries Other tactics used by the election members of the ruling Frente de Libertação deemed not to be cooperating in the fight authorities to keep their candidates de Moçambique (Frelimo) in a Maputo jail against money laundering and terrorist off the ballots, according to the (AC Vol 60 Nos 4 & 21). Although detained financing came as a shock to ministers in ACT-W, include NEC officers forging since February 2019, the prospect of trials Gaborone, who claimed that the move was objections to candidates, ignoring starting any time soon still seems remote, a ‘devastating blow’ and ‘had the potential applications and pressuring employers insiders say. of tarnishing the image and international of would-be candidates to deny them profile of the country’ (AC Vol 61 No 11). permission to stand or to sack them. World Bank/WTO Being on the list means that banks Most of the Superintendents and AFRICANS IN THE LEAD must apply stricter due diligence to Supervisors of Elections are officials for n By the end of this year, two of the most financial flows involving those countries, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), important international organisations, the and companies there may not receive EU oppositionists say. In Zanzibar, where World Trade Organization and the World funds, but since the sanction will not come ACT-W is especially strong, it reports that Bank’s private sector arm, the International into force until October, countries have had election officials have, in many cases, Finance Corporation, could be run by a stay of execution. refused to provide or receive appeal forms African women. Finance Ministry permanent secretary and closed their offices. After two months of informal hustings Wilfred Mandlebe told the Parliamentary Similar complaints of bias against among the eight contenders for the WTO Accounts Committee on 7 September the election authorities have been made director-general post, the race has started that Botswana submitted its report to the by Tundu Lissu’s Chama cha Maendeleo to narrow after ‘consultations’ started on 7 Financial Action Task Force in April but na Demokrasia (Chadema), while both September. Africa’s two female candidates that reviewers could not come due to the opposition parties have also reported – Kenya’s Amina Mohamed and Nigeria’s Covid-19 pandemic. attempted kidnappings, violence and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala – lead the field, but Officials in Gaborone now say they are intimidation (AC Vol 61 No 15). Kabwe’s Asian support is building for South Korea’s now expecting to be given a green light party has promised to use ‘all legitimate Yoo Myung-hee, officials say. by an audit assessment by the FATF in means, including public mass action, to They are called consultations because September, before a final decision is made resist any acts of disruption and sabotage’. each member state sends its ambassador by EU finance ministers in mid-October. in Geneva – in person, despite the The ‘blacklist’ has been controversial Mozambique pandemic – to register its choice at WTO and a sore point in EU-African relations for CREDIT SUISSE NAMES GUEBUZA headquarters. Gradually, the candidates several years, with some African finance nFormer President Armando Guebuza are whittled down until only two remain ministers accusing the EU of a form of has been named in the High Court in in the race, both trying to prove they can regulatory imperialism by forcing them to London as a ‘third party’ in the civil case create maximum consensus. comply with EU law on taxation but turning brought by Mozambique’s Attorney- Much rests on their approaches to a blind eye to its multi-nationals exploiting General, Beatriz Buchili, against Credit United States-China trade disputes. tax treaty loopholes to reduce their tax Suisse bank and Abu Dhabi shipbuilder Okonjo-Iweala has been criticised by Asian obligations in African states each year. Privinvest, over its $2 billion in hidden loans media for her dual US-Nigerian citizenship, However, European Commission (AC Vol 60 No 16). Mozambique argues it arguing it suggests a tilt to Washington. officials point out that despite Gaborone’s should not repay the loans because they Some US media argue that Mohamed’s protestations of innocence Botswana was were illegal and the associated projects position on China’s development status ‘grey-listed’ in 2019 and given a January fraudulent. and trading position has been equivocal. 2020 deadline to toughen up its legislation Guebuza has been joined to the law suit US ambassador to the UN in Geneva, to prevent money laundering. by Credit Suisse, along with seven other Andrew Bremberg, a close ally of Of the other four African states listed top Mozambican officials, as third parties President Donald Trump, insists the most in February, Ghana is also likely to be because they are closely associated with the pro-American candidate will win. removed while Mauritius and Zimbabwe original Privinvest contracts and associated At the IFC a consensus has built up are set to face the sanctions. loans. The prospect of them being dragged that the organisation’s poor performance into the case may scare Maputo either in Africa would be improved by having a Tanzania into dropping the suit or negotiating a leader from the continent. The front-runners SINS OF THE COMMISSION settlement, a legal source said. are Cameroon’s Vera Songwe, executive n The opposition claims President John The defendants, we understand, are secretary at the UN’s Economic Commission Magufuli is pulling out all the stops to also pointing out that Mozambique is for Africa, and Tanzania’s Frannie Léautier, prevent its candidates being registered attempting to have its cake and eat it chief operating office at Southbridge, for the October general election, although by blaming them while taking no action an investment management company. it is unlikely to match its performance against those who authorised the deals. We hear that Thierry Tanoh, a former IFC ahead of last December’s local elections Credit Suisse and its three former staffer and managing director at Ecobank when the National Electoral Commission employees, and Privinvest, the shipping until he was sacked in 2014, is also said Property of Asempa Limited (NEC) accepted the nominations of only company which devised the original to be interested in the job (AC Vol 55 No 4% of opposition candidates. They maritime deals, are both defendants but 14). Tanoh’s lawyers eventually won a complain that a plethora of dirty tricks their interests may be diverging, we hear. massive compensation award after courts is being used to keep candidates off ‘It is becoming increasingly triangular,’ our in Lomé and Abidjan ruled he had been ballot papers. source said. wrongfully dismissed.

Africa Confidential • 10 September 2020 • Vol 61 - N° 18 13 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 11/09/2020 at 08:43. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected].